andysays
Love and solidarity
Hmm, not sure this is such a great idea...
Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion
- Thread starter Sasaferrato
- Start date
Cat Fan
Cats and stats
Absolutely, I know it's not saying anything about degree of immunity, but it's still great news. Some immunity is better than none.
Cat Fan
Cats and stats
He said the word adult right there in the tweet. It's clear enough for me.
The reason I shared it is that it's easy to get in a doom spiral on Twitter with Christina Pagel and co. I've never once seen them share any positive news or put a positive spin on any of the numbers.
Say what you like about this Dr Levinson, but he is a medical doctor, not just an armchair doctor and he's entitled to his opinions (even if we don't agree with them).
Sometimes it's good to peek over the other side of the fence to get a bit of balance.
Artaxerxes
Look out, he's got a gnu!
Cone of chips and a cod please, extra Covid on the chips
He’s a GP turned CEO. Especially at this point, he has no better knowledge of the largely new, immensely complex and highly specialist subject of immunology than any other keen amateur.He said the word adult right there in the tweet. It's clear enough for me.
The reason I shared it is that it's easy to get in a doom spiral on Twitter with Christina Pagel and co. I've never once seen them share any positive news or put a positive spin on any of the numbers.
Say what you like about this Dr Levinson, but he is a medical doctor, not just an armchair doctor and he's entitled to his opinions (even if we don't agree with them).
Sometimes it's good to peek over the other side of the fence to get a bit of balance.
One of the big problems of this epidemic has been the mixing up of specialist opinion with generalist opinion. The kabbess’ supervisor is a researcher in infections and still says that he personally doesn’t feel qualified to talk about coronavirus immunity because he specialises in bacterial rather than viral infections. He in turn knows viral researchers who don’t feel qualified to talk about this viral infection. And yet in the minds of the media and the general public, anybody with a vaguely medical background is somehow equally qualified to give pronouncements about this pandemic.
prunus
Tick tock.
This is why I take all my own surmises on how this works and might play out with a pinch of salt. At a broad brush level I’m happy that my scientific training and knowledge is enough to understand the main outlines, but there is plenty of room for wriggles in the detail.
That said nothing’s really happened in the first 18 months that’s been surprising I don’t think, it’s all played out so far well within my expectations - with really the notable exception being the efficacy and speed of development of the vaccines. Under a year from identification to full-scale roll-out was faster than I thought was possible (and they work better than I dared hope). This might be because my knowledge is slightly dated
The next possible surprise that is hinting at its existence is the possibility that the current wave here has already peaked, and will continue to decline despite the removal of most restrictions. I don’t expect that, but it may happen.
For what it’s worth I am expecting at least one and probably more than one better-adapted-than-delta variants to arise in the next year or so - this virus only made the leap into humans a little while ago, and from what I can remember of calculations based on mutation rate, effective population size and variability space I’d be surprised if it’s reached more than a few local optima yet. That said, as I’ve said before, I think the total number of viable variants is likely to be finite and low, meaning that multivalent vaccines should be able to contain them all without too much issue (if they even prove necessary).
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Sometimes I don't watch IS and listen to Christina and co because it's too much and my anxiety gets too high. But have they actually ever been wrong? The idea that the scienctists are miserablists doesn't sit well with me and sounds more like Boris' everything's ok and we shouldn't listen to those killjoys narrative. The undermining of science to get a 'positive spin'.He said the word adult right there in the tweet. It's clear enough for me.
The reason I shared it is that it's easy to get in a doom spiral on Twitter with Christina Pagel and co. I've never once seen them share any positive news or put a positive spin on any of the numbers.
Say what you like about this Dr Levinson, but he is a medical doctor, not just an armchair doctor and he's entitled to his opinions (even if we don't agree with them).
Sometimes it's good to peek over the other side of the fence to get a bit of balance.
bimble
floofy
quite a long list of essential supply chain worker's employers this is being offered to:
'The guidance lists 16 sectors: energy, civil nuclear, digital infrastructure, food production and supply, waste, water, veterinary medicines, essential chemicals, essential transport, medicines, medical devices, clinical consumable supplies, emergency services, border control, essential defence and local government..'
lorry drivers & warehouse workers but not supermarket staff though.
Limited number of critical workers to be allowed to avoid self-isolation
Separate pilot daily testing programme will be expanded to up to 500 food and drink supply chain employers
StoneRoad
heckling from the back!
The last of the staff at my workshop are now getting their second jabs ... I think there are two left to go, everyone else is already double-jabbed, although one was only got his second a couple of weeks ago.
Fingers crossed that we stay clear ...
Still got a supply of disposable masks, a couple of hand sanitiser gels and a spray for the post ... that's staying for the foreseeable. I will need to put out fresh masks tonight, from the bagged stock in my desk.
Fingers crossed that we stay clear ...
Still got a supply of disposable masks, a couple of hand sanitiser gels and a spray for the post ... that's staying for the foreseeable. I will need to put out fresh masks tonight, from the bagged stock in my desk.
Cat Fan
Cats and stats
It will be many years from now before we can draw conclusions on who was "wrong" or "right". We might get some answers from the forthcoming government enquiry although I'm not holding my breath on that.
There's a whole spectrum of commentators out there ranging from your Telegraph/Spectator people on one side saying we should throw everything open and remove travel restrictions, to the Guardian/Indie Sage people on the other side who would have us use extreme caution at all costs and only unlock once everyone is vaccinated including kids (and maybe not even then. Some Guardian commentators think we should have restrictions in place forever.)
As always the truth is likely to be somewhere between the two extremes but Twitter and social media tends to magnify the most extreme voices and not much in-between.
One of these is not like the others. Can you spot which?
Cat Fan
Cats and stats
I don't agree. A doctor is better qualified than the average person on the street to opine on viruses because they have to go through several years of medical school for a start.
It's a moot point in this case because he's sharing ONS data not his own personal research or thesis.
Cat Fan
Cats and stats
The one that doesn't have editorial standards?
Oh, it is to laugh
I don't agree. A doctor is better qualified than the average person on the street to opine on viruses because they have to go through several years of medical school for a start.
It's a moot point in this case because he's sharing ONS data not his own personal research or thesis.
Going through medical school decades previously, where you did a handful of courses on the simplified subject, which will now almost entirely be out of date, does not make you better qualified than, well, anyone really.
Supine
Newt Member
The Telegraph?
Wilf
Slouching towards Billingham
BMA calling for urgent action on the pandemic itself rather than the 'pingdemic'. 10:39 here:
www.theguardian.com
As usual, everything's a fucking mess with this government and every phase of failure lays the groundwork for the next. But as they say, a policy of 'let it rip' is the real problem.
UK Covid live news: more than 800,000 people had coronavirus last week, ONS estimates – as it happened
Cases increased in all four nations, says Office for National Statistics
As usual, everything's a fucking mess with this government and every phase of failure lays the groundwork for the next. But as they say, a policy of 'let it rip' is the real problem.
elbows
Well-Known Member
What I mentioned the other day is that they had changed their methodology and that their numbers looked different as a result. And that there was a slightly awkward Tim Spector video where he addresses the elephant in the room in as squirmy a manner as possible.
Wilf
Slouching towards Billingham
Well, if you are going to go with doctors, what about the BMA chair I just quoted? That's lots of doctors.I don't agree. A doctor is better qualified than the average person on the street to opine on viruses because they have to go through several years of medical school for a start.
It's a moot point in this case because he's sharing ONS data not his own personal research or thesis.
teuchter
je suis teuchter
I don't agree. A doctor is better qualified than the average person on the street to opine on viruses because they have to go through several years of medical school for a start.
It's a moot point in this case because he's sharing ONS data not his own personal research or thesis.
Doctors are trained to treat people - they are not trained to be scientists.
elbows
Well-Known Member
The public inquiry may reveal some specific details of interest but we dont need that at all in order to form some prety strong conclusions about the response to previous waves.
There are very few questions that require us to wait years to get answers, and when it comes to previous waves we have the death tolls to indicate who was wrong and who was right.
This particular wave is more complicated in some ways, and we have to wait a little bit longer for certain answers. So I have been especially keen to hedge my bets in this wave, and not to stick to all my prior assumptions that served me well in previous waves.
But thats not the same as staying neutral, and we dont have to read many posts to know that neither you or I are neutral. For example whatever happens next with this wave, I do not think it was a good idea to let over a million people get infected, or for the NHS to be placed under this much strain again at a time where it needed to start dealing with backlog in other cases. 805 hospital admissions/diagnoses in England on the 20th July, a fucking disgrace!
It is certainly true that there are possible scenarios in this wave which those who oppose the precautionary stance of Indie SAGE will use to attempt to claim that Indie SAGE was wrong and are extremists that should not be listened to. It will be disgusting 'let it rip', 'if not now then when' extremists who will most delight in making those claims, should that time actually come. The sort of murderous shitheads who have had the luxury of falling silent and walking away in previous waves when their deadly stances resulted in a criminal level of infections, hospitalisations and deaths. They just shrug and think oh well, maybe next time. If this turns out to finally be 'their time', via an early peak, then I will not think any better of these shits, or you for that matter.
elbows
Well-Known Member
Given the amount of infection that has been allowed to occur in this country in every wave, I'm actually rather impressed with how well the essential infrastructure has held up!
I'm not happy about the media attitude to the 'pingdemic', all their bullshit and awful emphasis on that, I consider the self-isolation system to be very important and one of the few brakes even this government realised they could not remove during this phase of this wave. But I'm not surprised they have had to fiddle with it a bit to keep certain crucial wheels turning. Some of the media have repeatedly tried to exaggerate how much of a change to self-isolation was coming, and they were at it again last night in regards the new list of exemptions. From what I've seen the new exemptions seem like a fairly reasonable compromise. A compromise that is relatively modest, in that in some sectors we may be talking about a few tens of thousands of people being able to get tested rather than isolate, which we can contrast with figures like 600,000 told to self-isolate in a single week.
Any weakening of this brake is not great, but these changes seem a lot less bad to me than the removal of all the other brakes that enabled us to get to the current ridiculous levels of infection in this wave in the first place.
elbows
Well-Known Member
The weekly surveillance report for England contains some eye watering percentage positivity rates.
This is just one of a number of graphs that demonstrate the gap that opened up between male and female cases in recent weeks, or was present since the start of this wave. The sort of thing that usually promotes discussion about the effects of football.
This is just one of a number of graphs that demonstrate the gap that opened up between male and female cases in recent weeks, or was present since the start of this wave. The sort of thing that usually promotes discussion about the effects of football.
What I'm saying is that the virus has pretty much followed the trajectories that IS have put forwards, that's where they've been right. There's been 18 months of this already. I also don't find their position an extreme, that's how they are painted. For example they are not pro lockdown, they've been forced to recognise when the government's cock ups mean they can't be avoided.
elbows
Well-Known Member
Just keep in mind that there is more uncertainty with this wave, so there is probably an increased risk of Indie SAGE getting something wrong about the wave trajectory and timing.
Anyway here is the latest ONS infection survey. I will resist the urge to get carried away with tentative signs of plateaus in a couple of regions, and will just have to keep looking at this stuff for several more weeks to come. But I will certainly keep in mind what is being shown here.
I also note that their estimates for Scotland show a picture that is different to that provided by the daily testing system there.
Anyway here is the latest ONS infection survey. I will resist the urge to get carried away with tentative signs of plateaus in a couple of regions, and will just have to keep looking at this stuff for several more weeks to come. But I will certainly keep in mind what is being shown here.
I also note that their estimates for Scotland show a picture that is different to that provided by the daily testing system there.
Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey, UK - Office for National Statistics
Estimates for England, Wales, Northern Ireland and Scotland.
www.ons.gov.uk
two sheds
Least noticed poster 2007
A tad confused here, the interactive map showed results up to 20th the other day, I'll swear. They seem to have gone backwards.
weltweit
Well-Known Member
Did Nadhim Zahawi really state in Parliament that trial participants who had received placebo would be treated as if they were fully vaccinated?
hansard.parliament.uk
Covid-19 Update - Thursday 22 July 2021 - Hansard - UK Parliament
Hansard record of the item 'Covid-19 Update' on Thursday 22 July 2021.
platinumsage
HaveMyPassword123
Pagel was doom-mongering about a new variant in the north east a couple of weeks ago.
elbows
Well-Known Member
Dunno about that, since the last time I tried to use that map it was broken. I dont think its unusual for various bits of dashboard data to lag some days behind other data available there, since their more recent data, especially cases by specimen date, is incomplete. And when I download certain data from the dashboard that is very local, eg positive cases by age for a particular town, its quite a number of days urther behind than the main numbers
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