Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[Orang Utan]

Washing them can damage them structurally and does nothing effective. Just leave them for a bit and re-use them. I have four or so on the go and use one per day.

oh yeah good call

 

[Supine]

That's what I'd have thought - how long does the virus last on cloth or whatever the masks are made of?

not sure about cloth. From what i remember a year ago 3-4 days was max. If memory serves that might have been stainless steel though.

 

[klang]

In other news, I spent most of this afternoon arranging a second vaccination for one of my team members.

He's 63 years old, and has learning difficulties, and no family or support worker to help him.

I've been trying to help him get it sorted for a while, but with no success, so this afternoon we finally had to go together to his GP surgery and arrange things with the receptionist (who was really helpful). He now has an appointment for his second jab next Thursday afternoon.

I'm sure part of the reason vaccination rates are low in some areas isn't because people are choosing not to get vaccinated but because many simply aren't able to access the system themselves and don't have the support to help them do so.

i posted elsewhere - the day centre for people with ld / autism i work at is meant to fully open in a couple of weeks with no covid policy in place. no restriction in numbers, no mandatory mask wearing, etc etc. most of our client base have been cut most if not all support over the last few years and are classed as highly vulnerable. a quick survey showed that roughly half of them have not been vaccinated. not because they are not eligible, but because they don't get the support to access services.

 

[editor]

i was wondering how much football in pubs, homes and stadiums might have contributed to the big jumps we are seeing, stats will tell us more in time but this came to my attention today.....

Swathes of England fans report coming down with 'Wembley variant' after Euro 2020 final — inews

One fan said he knew of people who had tested positive for the virus and gone to the match regardless

apple.news

One England fan said he had taken a PCR test on the Friday prior to the match, attended the match on Sunday, and then received a positive result a day later. The fan had taken a lateral flow test on Sunday which had been negative.

Surely it takes more than 12-24 hours for the infection to show up?

 

[zahir]

i posted elsewhere - the day centre for people with ld / autism is meant to fully open in a couple of weeks with no covid policy in place. no restriction in numbers, no mandatory mask wearing, etc etc. most of our client base have been cut most if not all support over the last few years and are classed as highly vulnerable. a quick survey showed that roughly half of them have not been vaccinated. not because they are not eligible, but because they don't get the support to access services.

That has a bit of a eugenics sound to it.

 

[sheothebudworths]

Surely it takes more than 12-24 hours for the infection to show up?

LFD's have a much higher false negative rate.
They're better than fuck all in catching some random asymptomatic cases but to be using them in any other way - as 'proof' of a negative - is both ridiculous and dangerous.

 

[cuppa tee]

Surely it takes more than 12-24 hours for the infection to show up?

...articles saying a lot rocked up who already had it, but iirc incubation time is about 5 days and the fun and games got underway Sunday, but loads probably got right on the footie vibe Saturday too...

 

[klang]

That has a bit of a eugenics sound to it.

it's vile.
yet, if we can't get enough (paying) people through the door we'll be threatened with closure.

 

[two sheds]

not sure about cloth. From what i remember a year ago 3-4 days was max. If memory serves that might have been stainless steel though.

From a quick search looks like virus lasts 4 to 5 days to a week on paper and cloth. Oldish studies though as you say and not sure whether also true for delta variant

 

[sheothebudworths]

Surely it takes more than 12-24 hours for the infection to show up?

I think I've misunderstood your own misunderstanding here actually!
It wasn't to say he caught covid at Wembley - but that he'd actually been positive when he attended, having done the required neg LFD test beforehand - just so happened that a PCR test he did on Friday came back with a positive result on the Monday, when it was too late.
(Doesn't say why he did the PCR test, mind you - whether that was because he had symptoms)

 

[Supine]

From a quick search looks like virus lasts 4 to 5 days to a week on paper and cloth. Oldish studies though as you say and not sure whether also true for delta variant

i was hoping that throwing out a memory would get a more meticulous member to google it

 

[two sheds]

Me too

 

[elbows]

That makes sense, and the numbers for England on that day would match up with a doubling over three weeks, albeit that that has already reduced to two weeks now (which he vaguely suggested might be happening).
Just seems important to know the correct current numbers if/when they're actually being used to illustrate such massive points (or just anyway, tbh), even when there is already some other dishonesty involved, iyswim!

Regarding the doubling time, the rate of growth has been oscillating for both cases and hospitalisations. So the doubling time has changed quite a bit during this wave so far.

I've started attempting to graph this for England, but I dont know if I've got all my calculations right. But certainly its showing the same sort of trends as other peoples attempts to graph this I've seen on twitter.

The very last little downward part of the red line on this one is affected by case numbers not being complete for most recent dates yet.

These sorts of oscillations make quite a mess out of my attempts to explain my thoughts about the timing of this wave. eg I've sometimes talked about the shit hitting the fan in July rather than August, or said that I'm not convinced hospital admissions will take as long to reach 1000 as some models seemed to suggest. But when I look at this kind of graph that shows rate of growth changing so much over time, I start to appreciate that there is a fair chance my sense of timing could easily be well off.

 

[sheothebudworths]

i posted elsewhere - the day centre for people with ld / autism is meant to fully open in a couple of weeks with no covid policy in place. no restriction in numbers, no mandatory mask wearing, etc etc. most of our client base have been cut most if not all support over the last few years and are classed as highly vulnerable. a quick survey showed that roughly half of them have not been vaccinated. not because they are not eligible, but because they don't get the support to access services.

So many ways this could have been done better but that is just wrong on every level and there's just no excuse for any of it.

 

[glitch hiker]

Novara's Michael Walker has a shocking ambivalence to this crisis. I thought much better of him than this. Just wants to go clubbing. Ridiculous.

 

[klang]

So many ways this could have been done better but that is just wrong on every level and there's just no excuse for any of it.

the provider's line is government's policy. front line staff hands' are tied.

 

[elbows]

Novara's Michael Walker has a shocking ambivalence to this crisis. I thought much better of him than this. Just wants to go clubbing. Ridiculous.

What I thought is 'who is he?' since I dont follow their output at all.

Then I had a look, and I wont be looking again. If he is clever and enlightened about some things, this pandemic is not one of them, at least not now.

 

[Cat Fan]

What are the other countries doing differently? My understanding is we had much higher vaccination uptake than on the continent, so what restrictions do they still have that we don’t? I can’t believe you still can’t go to the pub or get your hair cut, so what are they doing right that we aren’t? Restrictions on numbers? Better track and trace?

I'm in an unnamed European country which has almost zero cases and almost zero restrictions. It's jarring to go into shops and see no one wearing masks.

I think there were two major failures from the UK. 1) test and trace is a bad joke. It's been shown to make no measurable difference to transmission. Other countries (e.g. Germany) seem to have much better systems.

2) we hesitated to put India and other countries on the red list (Boris wanted his visit and his trade deal). We were also very slow to set up the hotel quarantine system in the first place. And Delta is much, much faster spreading than Alpha

 

[Cat Fan]

I'm in an unnamed European country which has almost zero cases and almost zero restrictions. It's jarring to go into shops and see no one wearing masks.

I think there were two major failures from the UK. 1) test and trace is a bad joke. It's been shown to make no measurable difference to transmission. Other countries (e.g. Germany) seem to have much better systems.

2) we hesitated to put India and other countries on the red list (Boris wanted his visit and his trade deal). We were also very slow to set up the hotel quarantine system in the first place. And Delta is much, much faster spreading than Alpha

I should also add this country doesn't currently allow UK tourists, which seems like a smart move given what's happening in Spain now.

It makes sense to put UK on the red list unless you are very confident in your vaccine programme

 

[Orang Utan]

I'm in an unnamed European country which has almost zero cases and almost zero restrictions. It's jarring to go into shops and see no one wearing masks.

I think there were two major failures from the UK. 1) test and trace is a bad joke. It's been shown to make no measurable difference to transmission. Other countries (e.g. Germany) seem to have much better systems.

2) we hesitated to put India and other countries on the red list (Boris wanted his visit and his trade deal). We were also very slow to set up the hotel quarantine system in the first place. And Delta is much, much faster spreading than Alpha

would like to know which country this is? Freedonia? Sealand? Monaco?

 

[glitch hiker]

What I thought is 'who is he?' since I dont follow their output at all.

Then I had a look, and I wont be looking again. If he is clever and enlightened about some things, this pandemic is not one of them, at least not now.

I thought he'd been better at this previously. They had been giving airtime to people who aren't nutbags, like Dr Gurdasani.

But he seems to have fallen for the government's notion that it's best to do it now. Because....nightclubs or something.

Meanwhile Tim Spector is arguing that we're past the peak of this new wave, or that it's peaking now/prior to Monday. That can't be right. The independent Sage heroes (they bloody are) are saying lat August early September.

And where's Starmer in all this? If there was ever a time for a coalition among the opposition party (and I'm not naive enough to think they aren't all grasping opportunists) then surely this is it. At least do something to stop this fucking insanity and put the brakes on.

Again, I just cannot wrap my head around seeing 100k cases daily. Surely at that point, the public will crack. That's way too much. But we've already reached 50k in a matter of weeks under current restrictions, such as they are.

 

[xenon]

Loads of batshit stuff in this article, including -



So, in hot weather, and where we have been encouraged to invite visitors into our home with some obvious sensible guidance about ventilation/opening windows and doors, we should also shut them, to avoid getting pinged by next door (and/or to take personal responsibility for that happening)?

Eta - not to say I'm not relieved that they won't be tweaking the app to make it less sensitive to a more contagious variant, while also fuelling the spread.

And...



I mean... do what we've already been doing for months and months, with no need to 'issue tens of millions of fines', let alone sling people in prison. It's not exactly an either/or situation, is it?

mad as you say. I always have a window open unless it’s raining or very cold. But don’t most people turn the app off when at home? To be honest I forget to turn it on when I go out a lot of the time.

 

[xenon]

Don't put an FFP2 in a washing machine or in fact wash it at all.

I have only been using cloth ones. But I don’t wash them well, other than with the same alcohol stuff I clean my hands with. wash them a bit with that and hang to dry.
I think I will buy some better masks though, FFP2 or FFP three. Not for every day use but just if I have to use public transport to visit someone in the next few months.

 

[Orang Utan]

mad as you say. I always have a window open unless it’s raining or very cold. But don’t most people turn the app off when at home? To be honest I forget to turn it on when I go out a lot of the time.

does it only ping if you scan a QR code? or do you just have to be in the vicinity with your phone on? my phone spends a lot of time in a locker at work next everyone else’s phones and i’ve never had a ping

 

[Cat Fan]

would like to know which country this is? Freedonia? Sealand? Monaco?

When I said almost zero that was a slight exaggeration. But it's very low especially if you plot it against the UK.

 

[xenon]

does it only ping if you scan a QR code? or do you just have to be in the vicinity with your phone on? my phone spends a lot of time in a locker at work next everyone else’s phones and i’ve never had a ping

QR code is just to identify a venue. otherwise it’s supposed to ping you if the owner of a phone nearby has registered a positive test. as in your device was near someone who’s told us they had a positive test recently. not without obvious flaws. no pun intended, I live in a flat, on my own, why would you have it turned on at home. That’s asking for trouble.

 

[xenon]

When I said almost zero that was a slight exaggeration. But it's very low especially if you plot it against the UK.

which country then?

 

[two sheds]

Catlandia

 

[elbows]

Meanwhile Tim Spector is arguing that we're past the peak of this new wave, or that it's peaking now/prior to Monday. That can't be right. The independent Sage heroes (they bloody are) are saying lat August early September.

Indie SAGE dont know when it will peak. They may well describe certain scenarios with that timing of peak but they dont know when it will peak, and they have certainly seen Scotlands numbers start to fall like everyone else has seen.

Lockdown timing heavily influenced peoples thoughts on the timing of previous waves peaks. We dont have that this time. And there are lots of factors, which I went on about lots already so wont repeat now.

Tim Spector has spoken of a plateau because thats what his apps data is showing him. But some segments of society are underrepresented in their apps users. On twitter he acknowledged that survey+test methods of surveillance is struggling a bit at the moment so people need to combine multiple views of the situation to form a picture, This doesnt stop him saying things at times in his videos that I consider unwise.

Its also not possible to tell quite how messy this wave will be in terms of how long plateaus drag on for, whether things go down and then back up again later, etc.

I've already told people not to be surprised if there is a peak far sooner than some mainstream sources, models etc have been implying. This does not mean I am predicting an early peak, but I am certainly not ruling one out.

 

[xenon]

Andora,