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Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

SpookyFrank said:
I have to try not to think about the fact that with the knowledge we have about this virus and the vaccines we have available we could now be at a point where we were removing restrictions without this demented mass sacrifice of health and lives. We could be at a point where we genuinely had this fucking thing on the ropes and could really start to think about normality and not just the latest act of an everlasting shitshow.

The one upside I can think of is that Javid and pals are on record stating that they know the cost, they know the risks, and they're doing it anyway. That'll be important somewhere down the line I reckon.
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We were at that point, the Alpha variant was in decline until the spread of Delta.
 
elbows said:
Meanwhile a lot of the newspaper front pages are full of deadly moaning about the app having pinged half a million people in a week.

As I've said before, this is one of the few brakes that have been left in place to cope with this wave, for now anyway, but the reporting etc will erode this a bit.
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Can't imagine why it's pinging so often now.

Just turn if off. Out of sight out of mind, right?

Fucking madness
 
Wilf said:
You still have to pull yourself up short, to get your head round what they are planning (in fact what is already happening): the deliberate infection of a population, to maximise the spread of an disease that hospitalises, kills and has long term health impacts. That's what our government is deliberately doing.
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When they first confirmed the lifting of restrictions, I thought "Well, I just hope they know what they're doing." Now I'm like "They do! That's the problem."
 
SpookyFrank said:
I have to try not to think about the fact that with the knowledge we have about this virus and the vaccines we have available we could now be at a point where we were removing restrictions without this demented mass sacrifice of health and lives. We could be at a point where we genuinely had this fucking thing on the ropes and could really start to think about normality and not just the latest act of an everlasting shitshow.

The one upside I can think of is that Javid and pals are on record stating that they know the cost, they know the risks, and they're doing it anyway. That'll be important somewhere down the line I reckon.
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I dont see how we could genuinely be at that point now.

If we had delayed and reduced the arrival and spread of Delta then things would look at a lot better at the moment, but then we'd reduce restrictions based on everything going well, and would end up in the same boat, just with different timing.

The knowledge we have about the virus would, in a sane system, translate into keeping various restrictions. Not all of them all of the time, but certainly nothing like the UK plan this year so far.

And even if we had waited to vaccinate more people with two doses before proceeding with relaxation, we would still end up going through a period of uncertainty where we take off some of the brakes and then watch to see whether levels of population immunity can prevent major waves from developing.

So there would always have been that moment of truth, where the proof of the pudding was demonstrated via the eating. But yes we could certainly have set ourselves up better for a greater chance of success in that phase. We could have reduced the number of lives lost or damaged in this phase.

Israel at the moment is not a bad example of this. They were a bit more careful than us and then they moved to see if vaccines could carry all the load, quickly decided they couldnt and so reimposed certain restrictions. How far they will have to go with restrictions remains to be seen, but at this stage they are a demonstration of why the idea of the virus being 'on the ropes' is part of what dooms us to these cycles. False dawns are everywhere. Over time some of these do end up having far more genuine substance than before, but still far from being able to declare total victory.

I cannot tell how quickly this description will become obsolete. If we peak without a giant u-turn being involved then there will be much greater temptation to declare victory, but the authorities already know that this could be down to a mix of behaviours and immunity, rather than immunity alone, and that autumn/winter will come with increased risk in some ways.
 
Wilf said:
The flaw with that for me is that vaccines don't actually stop people getting Covid. You get ballpark figures of around 70% protection after 2 jabs for the AZ, though off hand I don't remember how long after vaccinaton that is.
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For infection in the wider population we are looking at a peak of 65-90% a few weeks after the second dose (PHE COVID-19 vaccine surveillance report, week 28). It varies widely from individual to individual (degrees of) and over time, initially peaking, then waning after a few months (though perhaps typically to a lesser degree for those with prior infection). Transmission reduction is, of course, lower - something around 50% (perhaps; could be less reduction) - and is likely to be modulated in a not dissimilar fashion.
 
Amid the government's highly risky strategy, the capacity of the NHS to deal with the rise in hospitalisations will be key (to some king of U turn). I wonder if the Nightingale hospitals will feature again, though I know at least one is being used as a vaccination centre? If they do, that will be a massive symbol of failure and may be a point where public opinion will shift against the government.
 
Wilf said:
Amid the government's highly risky strategy, the capacity of the NHS to deal with the rise in hospitalisations will be key (to some king of U turn). I wonder if the Nightingale hospitals will feature again, though I know at least one is being used as a vaccination centre? If they do, that will be a massive symbol of failure and may be a point where public opinion will shift against the government.
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In many ways they are a red herring, and service pressure and prolitical pressure would reach unsustainable levels in other ways before they were needed.

I never say never because of things like new variants, and certainly there is a different ratio of hospitalised to hospitalised in intensive care patients these days which will challenge intensive care capacity if things go past a certain point. But other options are available to them, especially if there are large differences between the regions in terms of numbers and timing - they will shuffle patients around the country like they did in the second wave.
 
This weeks ONS infection survey came a bit too soon to clearly see Scotlands peak, although there are hints of it, so will have to wait another week for stronger signs of that from this data source. By which time there should also be more clues via Scotlands daily hospital admission figures (which only seem to come out once a week these days).

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey, UK - Office for National Statistics

Estimates for England, Wales, Northern Ireland and Scotland. This survey is being delivered in partnership with University of Oxford, University of Manchester, Public Health England and Wellcome Trust. This study is jointly led by the ONS and the Department for Health and Social Care (DHSC)...
www.ons.gov.uk

Their estimate for England overall is that 1 in 95 people in the general community have had the virus in the week ending July 10th.
 
zahir said:
Report here:
www.theguardian.com

England’s Covid unlocking is threat to world, say 1,200 scientists

International experts say ‘unethical experiment’ could allow vaccine-resistant variants to develop
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com
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i feel embarrassed, like the Uk is that maskless man in a crowded bus shouting and spluttering about Freedom.
if we do produce & export some successful new variant, like everyone seems to think is likely, then Johnson's stupid face will be at the podium making jokes and saying who could have predicted such a thing.
 
bimble said:
i feel embarrassed, like the Uk is that maskless man in a crowded bus shouting and spluttering about Freedom.
if we do produce & export some successful new variant, like everyone seems to think is likely, then Johnson's stupid face will be at the podium making jokes and saying who could have predicted such a thing.
Click to expand...

I'm glad the WHO recommendation for calling variants "Delta" instead of "Indian" etc. was widely adopted, but an exception should be made to get Johnson's name associated with any new variant that does come out of this.
 
SpookyFrank said:
I have to try not to think about the fact that with the knowledge we have about this virus and the vaccines we have available we could now be at a point where we were removing restrictions without this demented mass sacrifice of health and lives. We could be at a point where we genuinely had this fucking thing on the ropes and could really start to think about normality and not just the latest act of an everlasting shitshow.

The one upside I can think of is that Javid and pals are on record stating that they know the cost, they know the risks, and they're doing it anyway. That'll be important somewhere down the line I reckon.
Click to expand...
That should be important somewhere down the line. I fear that it will be too late by then, and this clique of liars, fraudsters, and feathers of nests will be happily rolling in dollar bills and signing up for non-executive directorships and memoir contracts by the time any accounting comes home to roost.

It really, really needs to be a People's Accounting. With lamp-posts.
 
Original thoughts are overrated anyway, most of the time the best we can hope for is an original combination of unoriginal thoughts, expressed in a refreshing way that puts the zest back into life ;)
 
RileyOBlimey said:
I can’t say I’m impressed with Chris Whitty’s comment on potential “scary numbers”. This sounds like the crap Boris would spout to paint those voicing concerns as a bit of a wuss.

www.bbc.co.uk

Covid-19: Whitty says case levels may get 'scary' and warning on organ damage

Five things you need to know about the coronavirus pandemic this Friday morning.
www.bbc.co.uk
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Thats not how he was meaning to use it at all, quite the opposite, he was calling them scary numbers because they should quite rightly scare people. And he and Vallance were just the sort of people that the right-wing anti-lockdown idiots tried to write off as being professors of gloom and doom when a wave arrived last autumn.
 
elbows said:
Thats not how he was meaning to use it at all, quite the opposite, he was calling them scary numbers because they should quite rightly scare people. And he and Vallance were just the sort of people that the right-wing anti-lockdown idiots tried to write off as being professors of gloom and doom when a wave arrived last autumn.
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If that was the case then they should have broken rank by now.
 
RileyOBlimey said:
If that was the case then they should have broken rank by now.
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The closest he has come to breaking rank was last autumn when he and Vallance ended up doing their own press conference because Johnson wasnt interested.

The lack of resignations on matters of principal in this pandemic are a sign of what sorts of people end up in such roles, they are compatible with a broad swathe of disgraceful establishment shit. There are still some limits, but we havent reached them much in this pandemic.
 
I moaned the other day that Whitty didnt go on about ventilation in the press conference and Vallance had to add that bit. I note that in the webinar that Whitty participated in that the press have reported on quite widely today, he did remember to mention ventilation.
 
RileyOBlimey said:
I can’t say I’m impressed with Chris Whitty’s comment on potential “scary numbers”. This sounds like the crap Boris would spout to paint those voicing concerns as a bit of a wuss.

www.bbc.co.uk

Covid-19: Whitty says case levels may get 'scary' and warning on organ damage

Five things you need to know about the coronavirus pandemic this Friday morning.
www.bbc.co.uk
Click to expand...
it's just trolling at this point. "scary numbers" while doing fuck all about it except bending the knee to boris.

Fuck's sake. If this clown really cared about the community he'd speak out, surely.

I watched the latest presentation from The Scientists. At this point their Greatest Hits Tour is getting repetitive :D :(

Inappropriate humour aside, I was concerned when Dr Scally said that 'face coverings' aren't good enough. Now I'm not sure whether he means regular cloth masks or the stupid idiots in Tesco who pull up their t shirt over their nose and try and grab a Red Bull quickly, as if someone had farted. I have a cloth mask. Not sure where I'd get anything else.

was also concerned by the NZ doctor's comments that because of this we aren't going to achieve proper herd immunity as the threshold will be much higher/the vaccine isn't strong enough.

We are dooming ourselves to covid groundhog day.

Fuck the Tories. And frankly fuck all the politicians. I've heard not a peep from Starmer. If nothing else they should be organising a proper opposition party and at least trying for a vote of no confidence. If not now, when?
 
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