Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[ska invita]

This is just one of many trail events, including at football matches, theatres & nightclubs, being carried out over several weeks.

re trials of big event, Telegraph are leading with this today:

Social distancing for large events can be scrapped from June 21, Boris Johnson will be told next week after initial results from a pilot scheme found no spike in Covid cases among attendees.
An interim report into the reopening trials will advise the Prime Minister that crowds can return safely and without distancing provided that measures such as staggering entries and good ventilation are in place.
Government scientists have been monitoring the impact of letting fans back into an FA Cup semi-final, Carabao Cup final and World Snooker Championship. Conclusions from the early data are contained in the report and a covering note to be given to ministers next week, details of which The Telegraph has learned.

....yes its the Telegraph, but sounds like thats what will happen

 

[cupid_stunt]

No alcohol i presume. The local dealers must be rubbing their hands...

a 2pm-11pm rave, fuck that sounds good.

There's no special alcohol rules apparently, and yes it does sound great.

The event will be built from scratch, as it always is for Circus, with “one huge stage, amazing sound, amazing lights, enormous separate bar area, multiple tents with toilets outside, places to eat and drink outside”.

... will see people gather en masse with no social distancing, no face masks and no special alcohol rules.

3,000 maskless clubbers to pack dancefloor in UK's first mass event for 14 months

DJ Yousef, the man in charge of the club night, says there will be no social distancing, face masks or Covid passports

inews.co.uk

 

[ska invita]

There's no special alcohol rules apparently, and yes it does sound great.

3,000 maskless clubbers to pack dancefloor in UK's first mass event for 14 months

DJ Yousef, the man in charge of the club night, says there will be no social distancing, face masks or Covid passports

inews.co.uk

have to have a lateral flow test a day before hand... quite interested how this will proven on the door -...and what is the cost to a punter...anyone know?

 

[cupid_stunt]

have to have a lateral flow test a day before hand... quite interested how this will proven on the door -...and what is the cost to a punter...anyone know?

BIB - that puzzled me too. You also have to agree to another test after the event, assuming that's also a lateral flow test, there will be no cost, as everyone can order them free of charge in England anyway.

 

[Buddy Bradley]

You don't take the Times of India then.

Given estimates of the proportion of deaths being reported properly in India, worldwide we are probably at the peak of the pandemic right now.

Yeah - the BBC seemed to spend a couple of days really focusing on India, and then just dropped it completely. The Indian guy in my team was saying that when he speaks to friends back home, literally everyone has at least one family member that is sick.

 

[ska invita]

BIB - that puzzled me too. You also have to agree to another test after the event, assuming that's also a lateral flow test, there'll will be no cost, as everyone can order them free on charge in England anyway.

doing the test is one thing, but i presume you have to have it authorised that you've done it and its negative...and maybe theres a cost there?

 

[cupid_stunt]

doing the test is one thing, but i presume you have to have it authorised that you've done it and its negative...and maybe theres a cost there?

No idea, but as these are experiments, I would be surprised if there was any cost involved.

 

[cupid_stunt]

There's just been a report on BBC News about this nightclub test event, apparently all the big doors along the side of the warehouse will be left open, and sensors will monitor the Co2 at various points inside, so they can monitor the ventilation affect.

Not sure how helpful that will be for normal nightclubs opening.

 

[Cid]

doing the test is one thing, but i presume you have to have it authorised that you've done it and its negative...and maybe theres a cost there?

The kits comes with test strips that allow you to do everything at home.

[Withdrawn] COVID-19 rapid lateral flow test kit instructions: throat and nose test

How to do a rapid throat and nose test for COVID-19 and report the results. Rapid tests show the result on a device that comes with the test.

www.gov.uk

 

[Cid]

Given you can (and are supposed to) report rapid flow test results to the NHS via a QR code, I wonder whether they're working on integrating that into getting into indoor events.

 

[souljacker]

The kits comes with test strips that allow you to do everything at home.

[Withdrawn] COVID-19 rapid lateral flow test kit instructions: throat and nose test

How to do a rapid throat and nose test for COVID-19 and report the results. Rapid tests show the result on a device that comes with the test.

www.gov.uk

It's up to you to tell the NHS the result though. You could easily lie. You'd be a massive dick but you could do it.

 

[cupid_stunt]

This is a heart breaking report, this guy has been in hospital for over a year, an horrific reminder that it's not just the deaths that matter.

One of the UK’s longest-suffering coronavirus patients is still vomiting daily after continuing to battle the deadly disease.

Jason Kelk, 49, has been in hospital since April 1 last year after contracting Covid-19 during the first wave of the pandemic.

He was bed-bound for almost a year before he took his first tentative steps along the ward in February, and has since improved hugely. But despite this he is still receiving intensive treatment and his family say his lungs and kidneys have been ‘destroyed’.

One of UK's longest Covid patients 'vomiting every day' after lungs 'destroyed'

Jason Kelk, 49, has been in hospital since April 1 last year.

metro.co.uk

 

[Supine]

Not sure how helpful that will be for normal nightclubs opening.

Good for festivals

 

[David Clapson]

I know it's not the UK, but this Arundhati Roy piece is a must read Arundhati Roy on India’s Covid catastrophe: ‘We are witnessing a crime against humanity’

 

[cupid_stunt]

I know it's not the UK, but this Arundhati Roy piece is a must read Arundhati Roy on India’s Covid catastrophe: ‘We are witnessing a crime against humanity’

It was posted on the worldwide thread the other day, it's a long & hard read.

 

[Cid]

It's up to you to tell the NHS the result though. You could easily lie. You'd be a massive dick but you could do it.

Oh yeah, it's totally open to manipulation, even ignoring the flaws of lateral flow testing.

 

[Monkeygrinder's Organ]

There's just been a report on BBC News about this nightclub test event, apparently all the big doors along the side of the warehouse will be left open, and sensors will monitor the Co2 at various points inside, so they can monitor the ventilation affect.

Not sure how helpful that will be for normal nightclubs opening.

Well it's about building up a base of knowledge about what effects the air circulation, it's not just a case of 'this is how a nightclub works now.' They'll take data from all the test events and apply it to various future scenarios, and there are likely to be a lot more studies coming up.

 

[William of Walworth]

The USA is really leaning heavily on their vaccination program. The CDC is now issuing some interesting guidelines on what you can do post vaccination. This might be to assist uptake, I think it might.

The U.K. is going to be behind the USA doing this so it’s worth keeping an eye on how this goes. Here is a nice graphic on how they see life going forward.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/pdfs/324153_choosingSaferActivities11.pdf

still lots of mask wearing

re trials of big event, Telegraph are leading with this today:
Social distancing for large events can be scrapped from June 21, Boris Johnson will be told next week after initial results from a pilot scheme found no spike in Covid cases among attendees.
An interim report into the reopening trials will advise the Prime Minister that crowds can return safely and without distancing provided that measures such as staggering entries and good ventilation are in place.
Government scientists have been monitoring the impact of letting fans back into an FA Cup semi-final, Carabao Cup final and World Snooker Championship. Conclusions from the early data are contained in the report and a covering note to be given to ministers next week, details of which The Telegraph has learned.
....yes its the Telegraph, but sounds like thats what will happen

Quite a contrast in the US, with what's being suggested in that Telegraph article for the UK!

 

[Sunray]

I like these stats, from the Zoe tracker.

Chances of getting an infection in the next 24 hours

• Not vaccinated, 1 in 45,000
• One vaccine, 12 days later, 1 in 100,000
• Two vaccines, 1 in 150,000

No vaccine is perfect, you can still get covid post-vaccine, but the chances of getting very sick, going to the hospital or dying is vanishingly small.

Based on these stats I can imagine these trial events will be all fine. You could have 1000 unvaccinated people indoors and 0.02 people might get sick. Going to a sweaty club is always a risk you mght get something anyway.
A festival with just outdoor stages is going to be fairly safe.

 

[elbows]

The picture is changing but we are still quite a long way away from a situation where I would be comfortable to use language like 'vanishingly small'.

Trials may very well be successful when they involve a combination of some people having been vaccinated, some testing, some measures to maintain fresh air, and low prevalence of the virus in the community. People should celebrate successes on that front, and modify their own sense of risk, but should very much keep in mind the prevalence bit. Hopefully we wont have further periods of high prevalence in future, so this point will be obsolete, but if we do then people need to understand that the picture of risk and what we can safely get away with can change again in future.

I'll drive myself crazy if I make this point too many times in the months ahead, so I intend to further reduce the number of times I post about the pandemic during this phase.

 

[Cid]

I like these stats, from the Zoe tracker.

Chances of getting an infection in the next 24 hours

• Not vaccinated, 1 in 45,000
• One vaccine, 12 days later, 1 in 100,000
• Two vaccines, 1 in 150,000

No vaccine is perfect, you can still get covid post-vaccine, but the chances of getting very sick, going to the hospital or dying is vanishingly small.

Based on these stats I can imagine these trial events will be all fine. You could have 1000 unvaccinated people indoors and 0.02 people might get sick. Going to a sweaty club is always a risk you mght get something anyway.
A festival with just outdoor stages is going to be fairly safe.

This doesn't really represent how disease spread works. This was one of the early lessons in the pandemic; coronaviruses can spread in clusters, super-spreader events.

Not to say that these trials are a terrible idea... It's probably a reasonable way of probing into how that plays out given a somewhat changed level of population immunity. I personally haven't kept up to date enough to know exactly which lessons are sticking in the main SAGE advice, but things seem somewhat more sensible than they were at various points last year. But you certainly can't extrapolate from Zoe's population level statistics, a snapshot of an entire country still using social distancing methods, to a crowded nightclub. Which is why they're being cautious.

 

[elbows]

Oh and when it comes to hopes for the future, since I've always gone on about the role of transmission in hospitals, I very much hope that big changes on that front lead to permanent gains that change the pandemic numbers game for the better. Its just I have to wait quite a long time to be sure.

 

[teuchter]

I like these stats, from the Zoe tracker.

Chances of getting an infection in the next 24 hours

• Not vaccinated, 1 in 45,000
• One vaccine, 12 days later, 1 in 100,000
• Two vaccines, 1 in 150,000

No vaccine is perfect, you can still get covid post-vaccine, but the chances of getting very sick, going to the hospital or dying is vanishingly small.

Based on these stats I can imagine these trial events will be all fine. You could have 1000 unvaccinated people indoors and 0.02 people might get sick. Going to a sweaty club is always a risk you mght get something anyway.
A festival with just outdoor stages is going to be fairly safe.

These stats tell us nothing about the relative risks of different behaviours/actions at an individual level.

 

[Combustible]

You'd be a massive dick but you could do it.

Thank God that the pandemic has shown that there are none of them about.

 

[David Clapson]

I wonder how many Brexit voters are still alive? Things could have been so different.

 

[Sunray]

These stats tell us nothing about the relative risks of different behaviours/actions at an individual level.

No, they are just the general risk of catching it the next 24 hours.
From the modelling team behind the zoe covid thing.

Low COVID rates force rethink of surveillance study data

According to the ZOE COVID Study figures, there are currently 1,046 new symptomatic cases of COVID in the UK on average, based on swab test data from up to five days ago

covid.joinzoe.com

 

[The39thStep]

I wonder how many Brexit voters are still alive? Things could have been so different.

Got to admire a remainers view that If only the virus could be somehow manipulated to kill those who voted for Brexit that it would be a force for good.

 

[teuchter]

No, they are just the general risk of catching it the next 24 hours.
From the modelling team behind the zoe covid thing.

Low COVID rates force rethink of surveillance study data

According to the ZOE COVID Study figures, there are currently 1,046 new symptomatic cases of COVID in the UK on average, based on swab test data from up to five days ago

covid.joinzoe.com

Yes, but they are of no use to inform anyone's decisions about how they should behave.
For example, if I decide to start going to a gym twice a week, and I have not had any jabs, am I three times more likely to get covid than someone who's had two doses? Some people might look at these numbers and think the answer is yes, but it almost certainly isn't.

 

[David Clapson]

Got to admire a remainers view that If only the virus could be somehow manipulated to kill those who voted for Brexit that it would be a force for good.

It's mostly killed the elderly. And Brexit voters were older than Remainers, as you may remember.

 

[two sheds]

Yes, but they are of no use to inform anyone's decisions about how they should behave.
For example, if I decide to start going to a gym twice a week, and I have not had any jabs, am I three times more likely to get covid than someone who's had two doses? Some people might look at these numbers and think the answer is yes, but it almost certainly isn't.

true but they're good for people to decide in general whether to have no vaccinations, one or two.