Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[elbows]

So at the moment we have a partial level of hard immunity. We won't have the full effective level (at least) until everyone has had (or at a pinch been offered) both vaccinations.

It temds to be thought of in terms of thresholds, above which the impact of far fewer members of the population being susceptible causes the virus numbers fall into decline as there are not enough remaining growth opportunities. The thresholds are often quite high, but dont need to be close to 100%.

eg:

Herd Immunity: Understanding COVID-19 - PMC

The emergence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and its associated disease, COVID-19, has demonstrated the devastating impact of a novel, infectious pathogen on a susceptible population. Here, we explain the basic ...

www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

If the fraction of susceptible individuals in a population is too few, then the pathogen cannot successfully spread, and its prevalence will decline. The point at which the proportion of susceptible individuals falls below the threshold needed for transmission is known as the herd immunity threshold (Anderson and May, 1985). Above this level of immunity, herd immunity begins to take effect, and susceptible individuals benefit from indirect protection from infection.

Susceptible, infectious and recovered stuff that the paper goes into more detail about are at the heart of most of the modelling we've ever discussed.

With or without lockdowns the shapes are similar, just the timing and scale of them varies. Since with lockdowns etc, we are changing the number of susceptibles in the population by hiding a chunk of the population away from danger, rather than them genuinely not being susceptible due to immunity etc.

 

[teuchter]

I think the phrase has morphed into something else because of the perception (whether that was ever their actual approach or not) it was government policy at the start to just let it rip and who was left would immune for evermore.

Its a problem because its clearly an important concept but its become so associated with bad policy that the mere mention of it got the "urrrghh" response from me.

Prior to this past year, it's a term that I only really thought of in basically positive terms and which usually came up in arguments with anti-vaxxers. But as you say things may have changed.

 

[elbows]

Prior to this past year, it's a term that I only really thought of in basically positive terms and which usually came up in arguments with anti-vaxxers. But as you say things may have changed.

It was inevitable that it would end up with bad connotations because despite their later claims, there was a brief period in March 2020 where the likes of Vallance tried to justify and explain the original plan on the basis that herd immunity via natural infection would eventually be achieved. It blew up in their face straight away, not least because their numbers didnt add up, and that taint will take time to diminish. In the contect of vaccinations it should not have the same negative connotations, it is a key concept and dymanic that is required for the light at the end of the tunnel to function.

 

[elbows]

And by far the biggest problems with it now are that it is inevitably oversimplified, eg overall population pictures may hide the less pleasant outcomes for communities which are left exposed by virtue of not reaching the same low levels of susceptibility as achieved elsewhere and overall. Plus the potential of variants that can escape natural and vaccine-based immunity spoiling the simple picture. And even without mutations, the unknowns about how long both natural and vaccine-acquired immune responses last.

 

[Mation]

This from the ZOE app email seems a bit premature, no?

I really don't like the tone of any of their email updates. It's all woohoo look at this great social media community, follow us for more tidbits and opinion, type stuff.

Not really what I want from something that needs to be and seem reliable.

 

[elbows]

If anyone is still confused about why Johnson has said some of the things he has recently, they probably looked at whats happening in Chile and decided to try to cover their own backs a bit more. I am not claiming thats whats happened in Chile is sure to happen here too, but given the boasting I'm not surprised they are now delivering very mixed messages about the impact of vaccinations and the future.

The frustration and confusion many Chileans are feeling over the renewed lockdown is due partly to the fact that just two months ago, President Sebastián Piñera was boasting about Chile having one of the fastest vaccination rollouts in the world.

Chile sees Covid surge despite vaccination success

The country's vaccination rollout is one of the fastest in the world, so why are Covid cases surging?

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[Teaboy]

If anyone is still confused about why Johnson has said some of the things he has recently, they probably looked at whats happening in Chile and decided to try to cover their own backs a bit more. I am not claiming thats whats happened in Chile is sure to happen here too, but given the boasting I'm not surprised they are now delivering very mixed messages about the impact of vaccinations and the future.

Chile sees Covid surge despite vaccination success

The country's vaccination rollout is one of the fastest in the world, so why are Covid cases surging?

www.bbc.co.uk

Its a very sad tale and frustrating because it seems like it could have been avoidable. A lot of variables at play clearly but I don't think many other countries will be rushing to buy that Chinese vaccine unless they have no choice.

 

[cupid_stunt]

This so-called "double mutate Indian variant", which has already surfaced in the UK, seems to be causing concern, it's still designated as a “variant under investigation”, but looks like it could be upgraded to a "variant of concern" pretty soon.

It is designated a “variant under investigation” but is worrying researchers as it contains two mutations that it is thought may help the virus to evade the body’s immune responses. There are also concerns the variant might be more infectious than early forms of Covid-19.

Dr Simon Clarke, an associate professor of cellular microbiology at the University of Reading, said that while there was yet to be proof to support such worries, there was anecdotal evidence from India.

“I think it’s fair to say that this is a candidate for becoming a variant of concern pretty soon,” he said.

India Covid variant found in UK specimens taken in February

Researchers worry that ‘variant under investigation’ contains mutations that could help it evade immune response

www.theguardian.com

 

[William of Walworth]

I was reading about this new Indian variant as well. Not too much is known yet I don't think?

We can only crioss fingers and hope that this variant doesn't prove to be a highly infectious/fast-spreading type (experience in India suggests otherwise though?)

And please, let it not prove resistant to vaccines!

What this expert said in the above article sounds sensible anyway :

I’m not sure we’ll get that proof until potentially it is too late to stop it spreading in the UK, unless we start trying to contain it right now as we are for the [South Africa] variant

 

[Badgers]

The situation in India is really grim. Same for a lot of countries and the pessimist in me things a spike here (rather than a 'third wave' hopefully) feels inevitable.

These variants come in as things are opening up here and schools are back.

Hopefully the vaccination programme stays on track and these variants are covered.

 

[David Clapson]

How can there not be a third wave? We've got surge testing because of the South African variant in Lambeth, Wandsorth and Hayes in the same week as end-of-lockdown maskless crowds all rammed in together. People under 45 haven't been vaccinated. The Indian variant is just getting started in the UK and may well spread dramatically.


In other news, the great Devi Sridhar explains everything. A 43 min podcast with horrible sound quality. Thankfully there's a transcription: It's Okay to Overreact: Devi Sridhar Shares COVID's Humbling Lesson

 

[farmerbarleymow]

Popped into town yesterday - it was packed, with loads of people sat outside pubs, and shops full as if there isn't a pandemic. Doesn't bode well.

 

[Artaxerxes]

As long as people are outside it's fine, or at least not fucking dreadful

 

[andysays]

Popped into town yesterday - it was packed, with loads of people sat outside pubs, and shops full as if there isn't a pandemic. Doesn't bode well.

It's the first Saturday the shops have been open for, what, three and a half months? It's hardly surprising they're busy, but I would hope it will tail off a bit in the coming weeks.

And as long as most people continue to observe social distancing and wear masks, it shouldn't lead to an upsurge.

 

[farmerbarleymow]

It's the first Saturday the shops have been open for, what, three and a half months? It's hardly surprising they're busy, but I would hope it will tail off a bit in the coming weeks.

And as long as most people continue to observe social distancing and wear masks, it shouldn't lead to an upsurge.

Sadly it didn't look like anyone was - to be fair it would have been difficult given the number of people out. I got my stuff then headed home as soon as I could.

 

[Badgers]

 

[Badgers]

Is India not on the 'Red List' yet?

Anything to do with the Disgraced Prime Minister planning a 'political jolly'?

 

[sparkybird]

The current quarantine process:
My friend recently got back from Finland (she's has a Finish passport) and had to self-quarantine. This was last week.

On a positive note given the shambles of past performance, I was truly amazed to learn she got called >3 times a day< to ask where she was and they checked the GPS on the app. So self-quarantine isn't quite the free for all you might think. Called so often she got to know the people who called her. I was impressed.

This didn't last long. Her experience shows it's still a disaster. You are supposed to take a covid test on day 2 and at day 8. You have to pay lots for them, turned out it was essentially a government-backed scam. None arrived for anyone. It was a genuine testing place but nobody bothered to check if they could cope with the numbers. So none of those tests got sent, everyone is getting refunds and we have to hope that 10 days was enough time....

Oh and Heathrow is a super spreader as the queues take hours and no social distancing, all indoors.

Sunray I've got a friend arriving from Mexico (hopefully!) in 3 weeks - the list of potential 2 and 8 day test providers is huge! How on earth do you make a decision? Are you able to let me know which one your Finnish friend used, so I can at least avoid that one?? Many thanks

 

[Badgers]

Is India not on the 'Red List' yet?

Anything to do with the Disgraced Prime Minister planning a 'political jolly'?

 

[andysays]

Sadly it didn't look like anyone was - to be fair it would have been difficult given the number of people out. I got my stuff then headed home as soon as I could.

Not wearing masks?

I went for a post lockdown haircut yesterday - everyone was wearing masks at the barber's, except when actually having their haircut.

 

[MrSki]

Is India not on the 'Red List' yet?

Anything to do with the Disgraced Prime Minister planning a 'political jolly'?

I bet he has already selected his outfits from his dressing up box.

 

[Artaxerxes]

Shades of him heading to the Covid ward and shaking hands with everyone again.

 

[Badgers]

Shades of him heading to the Covid ward and shaking hands with everyone again.

Hope he dies

 

[farmerbarleymow]

Not wearing masks?

I went for a post lockdown haircut yesterday - everyone was wearing masks at the barber's, except when actually having their haircut.

Relatively few mask wearers about (although more inside shops). I felt a bit out of place wearing mine.

 

[farmerbarleymow]

Hopefully he'll catch a nasty mutant strain and die properly this time.

 

[editor]

Popped into town yesterday - it was packed, with loads of people sat outside pubs, and shops full as if there isn't a pandemic. Doesn't bode well.

The risks are very low if you're outside

What are the Covid risks when I'm out and about?

The BBC’s David Shukman on how to navigate lockdown easing while keeping yourself and others safe.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[elbows]

In other news, the great Devi Sridhar explains everything. A 43 min podcast with horrible sound quality. Thankfully there's a transcription: It's Okay to Overreact: Devi Sridhar Shares COVID's Humbling Lesson

I think Sturgeon is aware of some of the points made by Devi Sridhar there.

She says Scotland had "almost eliminated the strains that were circulating" ahead of the current lockdown "but probably opened up international travel too quickly".

Thats from the 10:15 entry of the BBC live updates page, covering an interview Sturgeon did with Sophy Ridge of Sky. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-56791144

The quote isnt well worded when it comes to the 'ahead of the current lockdown' bit. The strains in question probably refers to a first wave strain that seemed, according to some research, to have reached a dead end in Scotland in late spring/early summer last year. Scotland would also have needed to do more in regards travel from the other UK nations in order to have any hope of maintaining a good situation. The Scottish government did use rhetoric about aiming for total suppression of the virus back then, but the actual policy was not really in alignment with that aspiration.

 

[elbows]

Oh and there is this paper from last month, where they used some positive cases genomic analysis, combined with some contact tracing data to judge what impact travel had, and what impact travel restrictions, self isolation etc can have. Its not supposed to be a complete picture, its a fraction of the true picture of that time.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/977303/S1167__COG-UK_report.pdf

The majority of importations of SARS-CoV-2 in England over Summer 2020 were from coastal European countries. The highest number of cases and onward contacts were from Greece, which was largely exempt from self-isolation requirements (bar some islands in September at the end of the study period). Systematic monitoring of imported SARS-CoV-2 cases would help refine implementation of travel restrictions. Finally, along with multiple studies, this study highlights the use of genomics to monitor and track importations of SARS-CoV-2 mutations of interest; this will be of particular use as the repertoire of clinically relevant SARS-CoV-2 variants expand over time and globally.

 

[farmerbarleymow]

I've not binned any of the disposable masks I've used yet - they're sat in a bag waiting for me to make a decision what to do with them. I forlornly hold out the hope they'll be somehow recyclable one day, but they'll probably end up in the bin.

 

[bimble]

Text message from lambeth council at noon today, asking everyone over age 11 in both lambeth & wandswoth to get a PCR test 'due to new cases of the variant 1st found in south africa'.
They're going to check the samples for the variant.

This is the link if you live or work there:

Get a Covid-19 test

Find the right test for you

beta.lambeth.gov.uk