Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[mr steev]

Register to order free rapid lateral flow coronavirus tests for your employees - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)

Yeah, that's new though - only a couple of weeks ago they were still saying we couldn't get tests for workers as we had nowhere to test at work and they weren't issuing home tests... glad it's happening now, but as far as myself and my staff, we really could have done with them months and months ago. Instead some of my workers had to take unnecessary bus journeys to get tested the day before as the testing centers round here don't open until 10am

 

[SpookyFrank]

There are literally thousands of lateral flow tests at college. Students can walk into either of the two libraries and pick up as many as they like.

On fag packet maths our school has given out about 20,000 of them in the last fortnight.

 

[existentialist]

On fag packet maths our school has given out about 20,000 of them in the last fortnight.

I expect the kids have worked out how to smoke them...

 

[SpookyFrank]

I expect the kids have worked out how to smoke them...

You're supposed to submit two test results a week to the school. I haven't looked into it but I reckon not that many kids are bothering. Plenty of the staff aren't. We are in an area with almost zero cases thought tbf.

 

[elbows]

Papers are all saying there's a push for everyone to do lateral flow tests twice a week, which is better than nothing but still not convinced its level of accuracy is enough to actually prevent outbreaks?

If this side of things was asked to carry too much weight then I would be making a lot of noise about setting ourselves up for failure again.

As part of the current mix, in the vaccination era of this pandemic, its still hard for me to get too excited about it, it may end up playing a rather marginal role. Its not surprising that its happening though, Hancock first painted this sort of picture of mass testing about a year ago and they spent a lot of money on such tests already, so they were bound to use them for something in a big way.

I think the biggest problem, which some have already touched on, is the broader issues of who has not been engaging with the test/trace/isolate system all the way along, the pandemic divide and all the factors that contribute to it. And I would sort of expect levels of engagement to diminish further when we arent in the middle of a nasty wave, when we are in the vaccination era, when a lot of people have a sense of moving on from the acute pandemic phases. Some communities will remain vulnerable to quite large outbreaks, a sort of revisit of what happened in Leicester etc last year, and we'll be quite reliant on progress elsewhere having a notable impact more broadly. Lets hope this works out better than other forms of 'trickle down' theories we've been treated to in the past.

 

[Thora]

If you live with or care for a school or nursery aged child you can order home tests. I’ve only been doing one a week rather than two though and haven’t bothered submitting my results anywhere.

 

[CNT36]

If this side of things was asked to carry too much weight then I would be making a lot of noise about setting ourselves up for failure again.

As part of the current mix, in the vaccination era of this pandemic, its still hard for me to get too excited about it, it may end up playing a rather marginal role. Its not surprising that its happening though, Hancock first painted this sort of picture of mass testing about a year ago and they spent a lot of money on such tests already, so they were bound to use them for something in a big way.

I think the biggest problem, which some have already touched on, is the broader issues of who has not been engaging with the test/trace/isolate system all the way along, the pandemic divide and all the factors that contribute to it. And I would sort of expect levels of engagement to diminish further when we arent in the middle of a nasty wave, when we are in the vaccination era, when a lot of people have a sense of moving on from the acute pandemic phases. Some communities will remain vulnerable to quite large outbreaks, a sort of revisit of what happened in Leicester etc last year, and we'll be quite reliant on progress elsewhere having a notable impact more broadly. Lets hope this works out better than other forms of 'trickle down' theories we've been treated to in the past.

It's not a perfect system but a commitment to provide enough tests for twice a week could still have an impact especially. This could be very important in limiting spread the next time the shit hits the fan especially in the case of vaccine escape (presuming the test still works/can be adapted quickly).

 

[elbows]

It's not a perfect system but a commitment to provide enough tests for twice a week could still have an impact especially. This could be very important in limiting spread the next time the shit hits the fan especially in the case of vaccine escape (presuming the test still works/can be adapted quickly).

I'd still do it, so I dont think its 100% useless. But given the entire test & trace system is now considered to have had a very marginal impact during the first waves, I dont really expect it to be a big difference maker. I'd do it anyway because every life counts and even if it only makes a marginal difference in the grand scheme of things, some individuals who would otherwise have been exposed will be spared, just like has hapened so far when people have done the right thing in this pandemic.

 

[elbows]

Todays press conference appears to be a waste of time unless you want to hear Johnson making a joke in his opening remarks about cautiously and irreversibly lifting a pint to his lips.

 

[CNT36]

I'd still do it, so I dont think its 100% useless. But given the entire test & trace system is now considered to have had a very marginal impact during the first waves, I dont really expect it to be a big difference maker. I'd do it anyway because every life counts and even if it only makes a marginal difference in the grand scheme of things, some individuals who would otherwise have been exposed will be spared, just like has hapened so far when people have done the right thing in this pandemic.

It is a totally different system and strategy. If done properly, widely used and appropriate action taken it could make much more than a marginal difference. Big ifs though.

 

[souljacker]

If you live with or care for a school or nursery aged child you can order home tests. I’ve only been doing one a week rather than two though and haven’t bothered submitting my results anywhere.

Or pick them up from your local test centre.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Not much in that press conference, besides we are on schedule to the road to de-mask us.

 

[elbows]

Not much in that press conference, besides we are on schedule to the road to de-mask us.

The media wont be happy, they had been briefed that we'd hear something about travel traffic lights and a bit of other futuristic detail. That did not happen, the closest they came to it was mentioning that some working group documents were published on the website. And repeatedly telling journalists that they had nothing much to say about vaccine/immunity passports

Here is how the BBC were selling the press conference before it happened:

Sketching out in some detail - but far from every detail - the practicalities around how we may lead our lives a little further down the line when there has been further reopening of the economy and society. So we'll hear plans for a traffic light system to classify countries as red, amber or green. Yes, we'll hear what the stipulations around each colour code will be, but no we won't hear which countries are which colour. It is too soon to do that, given that foreign travel, save for a few exceptions, remains banned until 17 May at the earliest.

(thats from the 16:50 entry of their live updates page https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-56637289 )

 

[elbows]

It is a totally different system and strategy. If done properly, widely used and appropriate action taken it could make much more than a marginal difference. Big ifs though.

No its quite strongly related, its an extension of some of the earlier principals. Its at least a sign that they take asymptomatic stuff very seriously these days (they have settled on a third of cases being asymptomatic), and are probably still trying to compensate for how badly they botched that side of the picture in the early stages. Vallance today made a reference to the ongoing need for modified ttitudes towards going to work when sick, and I hope thats one thing that lasts beyond this pandemic. But its also an example of an area where lots of people didnt actually change much even in the most acute phases of this pandemic, where the same old pressures and faulty decisions remain in regards when you should go to work if feeling a bit dodgy.

Certainly I expect it to make a more useful difference in segments of society and in scenarios where people are on board with the concept and continue to take things seriously. When I sound pessimistic about how much its likely to achieve its because of the huge gaps in such sentiments even at the height of dangerous waves. And now it seems that even within groups that would have taken things seriously and engaged with the system during the first two waves, I can sense the vaccination era affecting their perception about risk and what is necessary and proportionate going forwards.

On a very much related note Beth Rigbys press conference querstions have been awful shit since she returned from her punishment. She is a good example of people getting ahead of the game and framing the future in a crap way. Which is a shame as some of her questions were really quite good at some other key moments of the pandemic. Never mind, at least she mentioned Chile which tipped me off that I need to look into what has happened there.

 

[elbows]

The media wont be happy

Maybe I should have said 'the media will feel the need to lie about it'

BBC live updates page says:

There were lots of announcements in today's Downing Street briefing

No there werent. And what was announced was thankfully already obvious - that there isnt anything bad in the data that would cause them to deviate from the previously announced roadmap & its timetable.

 

[Supine]

that there isnt anything bad in the data that would cause them to deviate from the previously announced roadmap & its timetable.

Not sure about that. Some of the recently released sage modelling shows circumstances in which >200k people die between now and June 22. It also shows that the last lockdown step will significantly increase r so relies on the assumption that vaccination rates remain high and they are shown to be efficient in real world usage.

 

[elbows]

Not sure about that. Some of the recently released sage modelling shows circumstances in which >200k people die between now and June 22. It also shows that the last lockdown step will significantly increase r so relies on the assumption that vaccination rates remain high and they are shown to be efficient in real world usage.

Thats not what Im taking about though. I'm talking about the ongoing surveillance data they use to judge the impact of each stage of unlocking and their timetable. Things like the number of infections, number of hospitalisations etc.

I havent read the SAGE papers that were released today yet. I read previous versions, written when the universities etc in question were analysing a number of different unlocking scenarios rather than the exact one the government eventually went with. Those earlier ones also had a range of projections that, under certain scenarios, involved a lot of additional deaths. The only reason I didnt go on about that more was the mood and mental health of people here at the time. I made sure to let people know that I was uncomfortable with putting all the pandemic weight on vaccinations shoulders alone, uncomfortable with binary thinking, uncomfortable with certain perceptions. But I'm trying to pick and chose my moments so that my words arent just a continual negative drain. And I have a very wide range of expectations for what happens in the next chapters.

Anyway thanks very much for the tipoff that further SAGE papers on this theme are available now. I usually cannot do full justice to them with just a few quotes and graphs, but I will probably try anyway. And I need to look into Chile.

 

[elbows]

OK I've had time to read one of the newly published papers, the Warwick uni one.

University of Warwick: Road Map Scenarios and Sensitivity, 29 March 2021

Paper prepared by University of Warwick on Step 2 of the roadmap.

www.gov.uk

There is quite a bit more detail on certain matters than the previous versions of this exercise, but luckily for me the waves etc shown are broadly in line with the earlier stuff I saw quite a while back. So I dont think there is anything in there which really alters my perception of what might happen next, in terms of timing or scale.

But I dont really know how familiar people were with the earlier modelling, and these documents are packed full of too many different scenarios and details for me to seriously attempt to summarise them properly. So I'll just draw attention to a few things. When they only consider steps 1 and 2 of the unlocking, they anticipate a modest wave that they would expect to be fairly rapidly dampened by vaccine-derived immunity. When they include steps 3 and 4 of the reopening, a much larger wave appears in their modelling results. This should only be a surprise to those who expect too much from vaccines, and its also consistent with what stages of unlocking would cause me to fret and complain after the first wave. Expect a repeat performance from me on that this time around, just with additional caveats since they arent entirely sure what levels of vaccine effectivenesss or what levels o seasonal effect to include in their modelling. Also of note is that on several occasions in the document they make reference to the possibility that levels of immunity in the population may have reached wave-suppressing levels by October or November.

There are a number of charts in the document that I would use when trying to prevent binary thinking about vaccination levels of protection, both for individuals and the wider population infection wave consequences. Restricting myself to just one, I shall choose this one. Again it is based on certain assumptions about relaxation of measures, seasonality and vaccine effectiveness. So its not supposed to be an exact prediction. It still offers some guide, and could also help in regards faulty perceptions about age and risk.

 

[elbows]

And this is how much difference their modelling shows when they feed different vaccine effectiveness parameters in.

The first graph is for a scenario where only the first 2 steps of relaxation of measures happens.

There are a bunch of other graphs which show what happens to their modelling if they assume different amounts of seasonality, vaccination rollout speed, transmission, levels of non-pharmaceutical interventions & R. Too many to put here.



Also I should point out that these sorts of studies have no way to know what will happen with waning immunity, escape mutant variants etc, so they usually just stick a paragraph or two about those sorts of things in their analysis, as a warning about future unknowns. I've certainly been keen to warn about the potential of mutations to be a spoiler, and I'm taking this opportunity to mention it again now. But I'll drive myself and everyone else mad if I never let the subject rest, and its not like I have a confident prediction about this.

 

[elbows]

My brain got tired so I havent had the opportunity to read the other papers, will do so another day. But they should show somewhat similar things so I hope to avoid feeling the need to quite from them or post some of their charts.

I have skimmed through the SAGE modelling groups summary paper about these studies. A lot of it is covering the detail and going on about the lage number of unknowns that can easily end up shifting the picture a bit. SO I wont repeat all those those. Instead just a few quotes.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/975909/S1182_SPI-M-O_Summary_of_modelling_of_easing_roadmap_step_2_restrictions.pdf

Any resurgence in hospital admissions and deaths following Step 2 of the Roadmap alone is highly unlikely to put unsustainable pressure on the NHS.

It is highly likely that there will be a further resurgence in hospitalisations and deaths after the later steps of the Roadmap. The scale, shape, and timing of any resurgence remain highly uncertain; in most scenarios modelled, any peak is smaller than the wave seen in January 2021, however, scenarios with little transmission reduction after Step 4 or with pessimistic but plausible vaccine efficacy assumptions can result in resurgences in hospitalisations of a similar scale to January 2021.

Maintaining baseline measures to reduce transmission once restrictions are lifted is almost certain to save many lives and minimise the threat to hospital capacity.

Even accounting for some seasonal variation in transmission, the peak could occur in either summer or late summer/autumn. It is possible that seasonality could delay or flatten the resurgence but is highly unlikely to prevent it altogether

I would hope that sort of thing isnt too surprising to people, and that they have already moderated their hopes and expectations somewhat. And there is still the potential for vaccine effectiveness to end up greater than the levels used by the modelling up to this point, as more data comes in.

In terms of bad news that was new to me, although we've seen news in recent times about some unexpected delays to vaccine supply, I dont think I'd heard of the vaccine rollout scale for planning purposes having been adjusted downwards to quite this extent before. The following quote is from the section on key changes compared to last time they did a paper about this stuff in mid February. And this planning scenario could change again in future, and I dont know what other scenarios they have apart from the central one. In any case, even if the media end up mostly ignoring the detail in these modelling scenarios, I might expect them to pick up on this bit:

The central rollout scenario provided by the Cabinet Office is considerably slower, at an average of 2.7m doses per week in England until the end of July (2m thereafter), compared to 3.2m per week in the previous iteration (3.9m thereafter).

 

[elbows]

Can also tell that the likes of SAGE are a bit nervous about what sorts of levels of prevalence government may be prepared to tollerate if they think the levels o hospitalisation and death wont resemble previous waves.

The vaccination programme means that high numbers of infections will not lead to as high a number of hospitalisations and deaths as it would previously have done. However, there will be other health impacts, including post-Covid syndromes (‘Long Covid’). The overall prevalence and impact of these syndromes is not well understood, and nor is the potential role in vaccination in preventing them. This needs to be considered when assessing the impact of different levels of prevalence.

From their March 31st minutes. https://assets.publishing.service.g...nt_data/file/975908/S1179_SAGE_85_minutes.pdf

 

[William of Walworth]

In terms of bad news that was new to me, although we've seen news in recent times about some unexpected delays to vaccine supply, I dont think I'd heard of the vaccine rollout scale for planning purposes having been adjusted downwards to quite this extent before. The following quote is from the section on key changes compared to last time they did a paper about this stuff in mid February. And this planning scenario could change again in future, and I dont know what other scenarios they have apart from the central one. In any case, even if the media end up mostly ignoring the detail in these modelling scenarios, I might expect them to pick up on this bit :

The central rollout scenario provided by the Cabinet Office is considerably slower, at an average of 2.7m doses per week in England until the end of July (2m thereafter), compared to 3.2m per week in the previous iteration (3.9m thereafter).

Interesting (and somewhat downheartening ) stuff there. I've taken it on board.

But reading the above just now reminded me of a vaccines article by Robin McKie (Observer Science Editor) from Easter Sunday that I got round to reading today -- mostly focussing on a greater quantity of vaccines, and maybe new types of vaccine**, potentially becoming available this year.
(And I do fully appreciate that that plenty of those should be shared with other countries!! )

**For instance this one, which I wasn't aware of :

The second vaccine likely to be ready for use in the UK by the end of the year is expected to be manufactured by France-based Valneva at its new manufacturing facility in West Lothian, Scotland. The vaccine contains inactivated Covid-19 particles that stimulate the body’s immune system into manufacturing antibodies that swarm round invading viruses and block their actions. The vaccine is still undergoing clinical trials. However, if approved, it is likely be rolled out around the country by the end of the year. The UK has ordered 100m doses.

Not yet approved, obviously. But could be good!

None of this contradicts the warnings about loosenings of restrictiions risking a greater adverse effect than the positive effects of more vaccines

But. I just thought that article was worth adding here for a little more context, though.

 

[Boris Sprinkler]

What is with the disparity between amounts allowed to gather for weddings (15) and funerals (30)? Will this not lead to a situation where people are getting killed in order to have better parties?

 

[SpookyFrank]

I really don't like the idea of restrictions being removed completely while significant numbers of adults have still not been vaccinated.

 

[Steel Icarus]

I really don't like the idea of restrictions being removed completely while significant numbers of adults have still not been vaccinated.

It's crazy. It's like perpetually being offered a tenner into your bank account but instead choosing from a selection of chocolates, some of which are explosive.

 

[Steel Icarus]

Of course people are putting all their hopes onto the vaccine(s). Nobody cares about the detail you go into elbows and that's in no way a criticism of you, it's just the gov aren't going to say it and the public don't want to hear it

 

[Teaboy]

I really don't like the idea of restrictions being removed completely while significant numbers of adults have still not been vaccinated.

Yeah. Each stage of the re-opening process certainly comes with risks but that last ...and everything else stage in June still appears to be very wishful / foolhardy thinking. I suppose you could see a way to it if the virus was suppressed to a very very low level nationally and the borders were beefed up as best they could be. Instead we have more dancing on a pin head about internal covid passports and allowing international travel.

The last 12 months have shown us that every time the government gets into this sort territory of a competition between telling people what they want to heave versus the right thing to do they've always chosen the bed shitting option. I am not confident.

Add into this the vaccination programme being a bit slower than once hoped and real concerns over take-up in the younger population. Hmmmm.

 

[William of Walworth]

Yeah. Each stage of the re-opening process certainly comes with risks but that last ...and everything else stage in June still appears to be very wishful / foolhardy thinking. I suppose you could see a way to it if the virus was suppressed to a very very low level nationally and the borders were beefed up as best they could be. Instead we have more dancing on a pin head about internal covid passports and allowing international travel.

The last 12 months have shown us that every time the government gets into this sort territory of a competition between telling people what they want to heave versus the right thing to do they've always chosen the bed shitting option. I am not confident.

I agree with the above.
The fact that like others, we've both made some later-summer plans doesn't in any way contradict your concerns, in fact I share them mainly.

However, on this bit .....

Add into this the vaccination programme being a bit slower than once hoped

I think that the slowdown will be temporary. See the article by Robin McKie that I quoted in post #35,782 above, which looks generally much more hopeful as time goes on, for the programme speeding up again

and real concerns over take-up in the younger population. Hmmmm.

A big worry that, though, yes. Somehow the public messaging has got to improve.

There wase some quite good (?) recent messaging specificaly aimed at the vaccine-hesitant among older BAME people, including putting vaccination centres in particular community centres, religious hubs, etc.

So surely (completely different!) youngers-targetted messaging could go out on that there young persons' social media, etc.?

One aim for vaccination messaging should perhaps be to separate the genuinely hesitant and 'can't be arsed' types -- i.e. persuadable --from out-and-out conspiraloons (who are all ages anyway, but include a fair few youth, I've read? ).

The latter are probably unreachable

 

[elbows]

Of course people are putting all their hopes onto the vaccine(s). Nobody cares about the detail you go into elbows and that's in no way a criticism of you, it's just the gov aren't going to say it and the public don't want to hear it

If I thought there was a huge potential audience for the detail I sometimes offer then maybe I would have tried to find a bigger stage during the pandemic. Some people do care about some of the detail, some of the time, which is why I favour messageboards, I can go on about detail related to things other people bring up (in this case Supine).

But sure, even I move with the times a bit, my output these days is a fraction of what it once was. And sometimes I post the detail to give people a sense of timing so that they have a better idea about when they can look the other way for a bit, based on stuff like when the modelling suggests another wave may emerge.

The government do say many of these things, just with less detail. For example the substance of the analysis Supine mentioned that I then dove into, and the date it was looked at by SAGE, explain why Whitty started going on about how the vaccine wall of protection was leaky in the March 29th press conference. Its also why we've ended up with the unlocking roadmap and timetable we have, and why Johnson etc arent just giving the likes of the Daily Mail what they want, why they arent promising 100% normality by summer, why the spectre of a third wave is occasionally raised.

Quite a lot of the modelling scenarios/outputs involve a third wave that is modest enough compared to the first two that the government will hope to ride them out, perhaps with some application of the brakes for a time but still moving towards the finish line, and they will be happy with the bits of analysis that suggest the big wave risk will be thwarted by levels of population immunity considered achievable before the end of 2021. If/when that time comes then my pandemic output will plummet and the sense of the acute pandemic phases being at an end will become a better fit with reality. A third wave below a certain size will fit with the governments attempts to move on to a 'learning to live with Covid' phase. The giant unknown is in regards virus variants that could escape much of the protection offered by vaccination, which have the potential to return us to scenarios with very large waves and no end in sight. Its a real risk but I dont go on about it every week, to an extent it would be pissing in the wind unless it becomes clear which way that stuff is going.

 

[Cloo]

I really don't like the idea of restrictions being removed completely while significant numbers of adults have still not been vaccinated.

It does seem fucking stupid, and I hope they will backpedal on this one.