Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[LDC]

It's true that long Covid is a mixed bag, in that in people with a severe acute infection there are a bunch of persistent symptoms that you would expect to see given the nature of the initial infection. But there is also the possibility of both occult multi-organ damage even in mild or asymptomatic infections, and of a persistent immune disregulation arising from mild Covid infections. There is almost no data at all on persistent symptoms in young people, but I find it quite concerning that what little information there is suggests at least some persistence beyond what you would expect from the acute infection. In the meantime schools will be re-opened as parents are assured that it is very unlikely that any significant number of children will come to harm, when to my mind there is insufficient evidence that this is actually the case.

At least two of the experts on there expressed concerns particularly about neurological injury, is it wise to dismiss that possibility out of hand?

I'm totally not dismissing it out of hand, I just think it's worth being very wary and careful of the way it sometimes gets talked about as if it's a singular thing that is very common. There's a danger with that with the fear and expectation it then can become a self-fulfilling diagnosis in some people. I think having some symptoms for 5 weeks post-infection is very different to having long term organ damage months later, and giving them both the same label is very unhelpful, and potentially damaging for some people.

 

[Wilf]

"Allegedly hoping" seems suitably nebulous. Everyone 18 and older to receive two doses by the end of May? Good luck with that.

Why do you say that, out of interest? Don't get me wrong, if there's anything to fail at, this government will manage to do it. But I'd have thought the vaccination programme should get successively faster/easier in that there will be more centres than a month ago and also because moving down the age groups allows mass delivery (get a text, book it, turn up - very different to arranging to go into care homes, getting the 80 year olds into surgeries etc.).

Against that, it looks like a lot of care home staff and residents are yet to be vaccinated. Might well be that they deliver on the end of May, having run through the adult population, but with patchy coverage and hesitancy in all groups? Good for ministerial boasting, but not ideal for, ahem, herd immunity.

 

[StoneRoad]

One dose, which provides protection until the second dose. I don't become vaccinated for tetanus only after completing a series of 10-year boosters.

Being an active gardener, I've had 'several' tetanus jabs.
The last time - about 8 years ago - I stuck something in me as a gardening accident, the hospital said I had had enough tet jabs to last me a couple of decades at least, so I didn't need another, they just cleaned and dressed the wound - and advised me to be more careful in future ...

 

[Wilf]

isn't september for having had the required two doses rather than half?

Dunno, perhaps I should read up on it rather than sounding off.

 

[two sheds]

Funny how NHS being in charge of vaccinations seems to have been so successful.

Surprising that it wasn't turned over to Serco after their low-cost but stellar track&trace performance. We'd have had everyone vaccinated twice by now.

 

[Sue]

Funny how NHS being in charge of vaccinations seems to have been so successful.

Surprising that it wasn't turned over to Serco after their low-cost but stellar track&trace performance. We'd have had everyone vaccinated twice by now.

Who knew that getting people to do the jobs they've loads of experience in would be a good way of doing things..?

UK missed coronavirus contact tracing opportunity, experts say

Thousands of council workers could have been deployed by the government but were not asked

www.theguardian.com

ETA That article's from the start of April last year.

 

[2hats]

Why do you say that, out of interest?

Everyone 18 and older in the UK will most definitely not receive two doses by the end of May. From the current rate of progress alone, but also not least because for reasons of policy, medical history, production, political, distribution, vaccine hesitancy, anti-vax.

 

[wayward bob]

... the fear and expectation it then can become a self-fulfilling diagnosis in some people.

are you that dude who wrote a blog for the ?bmj that he'd cured himself with a positive mental attitude?

 

[Supine]

DId anyone watch the latest Indie Sage? Some fairly worrying although not entirely suprising data on long Covid, particularly in young people. 1 in 8 primary age children and 1 in 7 secondary age with a positive test still have symptoms at 5 weeks according to ONS.

it was a good but depressing discussion. Brain covid and unknown affects after years - unknown potential issue!

 

[Wilf]

Everyone 18 and older in the UK will most definitely will not receive two doses by the end of May. From the current rate of progress alone, but also not least because for reasons of policy, medical history, production, political, distribution, vaccine hesitancy, anti-vax.

Yeah, I get the refuseniks, health issues and the rest, but I was thinking they'll be going with a more minimal 'vaccine offered' and 'first dose delivered'. If that's what they mean, another 17 weeks or so at 2-3 million vaccinations a week gets you close.

Suppose what I meant was that September was a remarkably conservative deadline. However, I suspect you will be right, if the definition is '2 doses to all those who are realistically going to have the vaccine', we will be looking well into the Summer. And of course, like painting the Forth Bridge...

 

[2hats]

No, I disagree with your assertion that someone who has only had one dose hasn't been vaccinated. That's not the correct terminology. They haven't completed the vaccination course but they certainly have been vaccinated. See Hep A for example.

Hep A vaccines are licensed for single dose. (Currently available) UK COVID-19 vaccines are not.

Current (BNT162b2 Israel) evidence points to little immune response until day 14 after first dose. There is no longitudinal immune profile data and that's why the second dose is necessary (possible exceptions: naturally acquired immunity - see here though technically there the prime is the "second dose" and the research underlines the utility of a second dose for the seronegative).

 

[zahir]

DId anyone watch the latest Indie Sage? Some fairly worrying although not entirely suprising data on long Covid, particularly in young people. 1 in 8 primary age children and 1 in 7 secondary age with a positive test still have symptoms at 5 weeks according to ONS.

This is worth watching as well: Long Covid

 

[Wilf]

Anyway regardless of whether they do deliver vaccines to all adults by the end of May, that kind of noise from government is part of the 'get schools open, book your Summer hols, open the shops' narrative. And a dangerous narrative at that, particularly as they may well have lost control of the newest variants. Not closing the ports and airports to anything other than genuine emergencies, along with a lack of testing for people arriving in the UK is rapidly rising up the league table of worst government fuck ups.

 

[pinkmonkey]

I live in N17 and I'm about to go get tested to do with the South African strain - they're doing door-to-door but we're not land lubbers. Have barely been out but did come within coughing distance of unmasked idiots in retail a couple of times recently.

 

[Fruitloop]

I'm totally not dismissing it out of hand, I just think it's worth being very wary and careful of the way it sometimes gets talked about as if it's a singular thing that is very common. There's a danger with that with the fear and expectation it then can become a self-fulfilling diagnosis in some people. I think having some symptoms for 5 weeks post-infection is very different to having long term organ damage months later, and giving them both the same label is very unhelpful, and potentially damaging for some people.

It's not a majority, that's for sure, but there's growing evidence that it's a substantial minority. In a survey of 200 people with persistent symptoms, where only 18% had been in hospital (referred to in the latest indie sage), 33% had lung damage on a scan, with lesser but significant figures for heart and kidney damage. So whilst I take your point that you risk alarming a number of people who are experiencing a fairly normal period of convalescence, there's a significant number of people who may well require some kind of medical intervention in the medium term at least. But perhaps more importantly than that, there are huge ramifications for policy that should be urgently taken into account, that are currently being ignored.

 

[elbows]

More clues about the spread of the South African variant.

15m ago 13:32

Hancock summarising the door-to-door testing efforts taking place to counter the South African variants.

And he announces that 11 cases of the variant have been discovered in Bristol, and 32 in Liverpool. He says the same approach is now being applied in these areas.

 

[wayward bob]

yeah i thought i heard him say bristol but couldn't find anything written on it. will they get the same testing does anyone know? (redundant, soz, link says yes)

 

[two sheds]

It's not a majority, that's for sure, but there's growing evidence that it's a substantial minority. In a survey of 200 people with persistent symptoms, where only 18% had been in hospital (referred to in the latest indie sage), 33% had lung damage on a scan, with lesser but significant figures for heart and kidney damage. So whilst I take your point that you risk alarming a number of people who are experiencing a fairly normal period of convalescence, there's a significant number of people who may well require some kind of medical intervention in the medium term at least. But perhaps more importantly than that, there are huge ramifications for policy that should be urgently taken into account, that are currently being ignored.

I did see one specialist say that the lung damage cleared up afterwards though. Sorry can't remember where I saw it.

 

[Fruitloop]

There are some encouraging signs that lung damage improves, although whether that means it goes away I'm not sure. That still leaves neurological, cardiac and kidney damage though.

 

[Cid]

What is lung damage like with normal respiratory diseases? Flu etc?

I mean I know I’ve had shit that has had lingering effects for weeks after the initial infection... being wary of trivialising stuff as was the case with the old ‘it’s just like flu’ of course.

 

[two sheds]

I had a scan the year before last that showed an anomaly at the bottom of one lung which could have been mucus (asthma related) or could have been cancer I was told. The specialist got me to have another scan which I did in March or April. I was hoping it wouldn't have spread but it actually cleared up completely so was definitely mucus. I'm wondering whether that might be something like.

(I also have very strange white spots showing up on scans throughout my lungs which are apparently from when I had chicken pox when I was a kid but they're also benign. A bit irrelevant to present discussion though)

Don't want to trivialize any of the coronavirus effects though. We'll presumably know more given time.

 

[Artaxerxes]

What is lung damage like with normal respiratory diseases? Flu etc?

I mean I know I’ve had shit that has had lingering effects for weeks after the initial infection... being wary of trivialising stuff as was the case with the old ‘it’s just like flu’ of course.

Not that bad, Covid can leave proper nasty scarring on the lungs.

Post-COVID lungs worse than the worst smokers' lungs, surgeon says

Texas trauma surgeon Dr. Brittany Bankhead-Kendall says that means even survivors could have long-term post-COVID problems.

www.cbsnews.com

 

[maomao]

So are we now pursuing a zero South African covid policy? Because it threatens the eggs-in-one-basket vaccine policy?

 

[weepiper]

Early years school possibly going back in Scotland from the 22nd of February, and a big expansion of the regular testing which is already done for NHS face to face staff to include school staff and senior high school students:

 

[emanymton]

Not sure where best to put this.

But there are some utter scum in the World.

Just had this email, not showing the actual sent from address of course.

I like that they try and get your details even if you don't want the vaccine.

 

[teuchter]

Not sure where best to put this.

But there are some utter scum in the World.

Just had this email, not showing the actual sent from address of course.

I like that they try and get your details even if you don't want the vaccine.

View attachment 252471View attachment 252470View attachment 252469

I've had a few of these too.

 

[IC3D]

We're in for a long haul. Covid is the new flu and there will be a modified jab each year.
Govt ordering vaccine for 3 years at least now.

 

[editor]

More bad news

Alcohol deaths hit record high during Covid pandemic

The figures for England and Wales cover the first nine months of 2020.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[cupid_stunt]

Today's reported figures -

New cases - 16,840, the lowest since early Dec.

Patients in hospital have dropped to 35,466, as of Sun 31/1.

1st dose vaccinations - 9,646,715

New deaths - 1,449 down 182 on last Tuesday's 1,631, bringing the 7-day average down to 1,122, a drop of 9.7% in a week.

Long way to go, but at least we've seen the deaths declining for about a week or so.

 

[SpookyFrank]

More bad news

Alcohol deaths hit record high during Covid pandemic

The figures for England and Wales cover the first nine months of 2020.

www.bbc.co.uk

No great surprise, sadly. I don't suppose the services that would normally support those with alcohol problems have been able to do much either.