brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
£8.19?Same in Norwich; Sains, Tescos, even Waitrose with that lovely cassoulet in a tin for £8.19, no shelf-clearing, chill everyone.
How many of the fuckers do you get for that?
Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion
- Thread starter Sasaferrato
- Start date
How many of the fuckers do you get for that?
prunus
Tick tock.
If you’ve been in contact with someone who has been in contact with someone who is unwell and has been tested (results in 72 hours) how concerned would you be? Asking for a friend.
I would be anxious, because I’m human, and that’s a human reaction. However I would try to temper that anxiety with the following arithmetic: only about 0.5% of people tested in the UK have tested positive, so assuming the tested person is part of that population (ie isn’t of particular risk, hasn’t eg been working in a quarantine hospital in Iran) which is a reasonable assumption, we’re already at 1 in 200 of there being anything to actually worry about.
Transmission by contact (the intermediate person in contact with the unwell person) is be no means certain; it would depend on the closeness of contact, but if it was not very close and or prolonged transmission at that level is unlikely. 15% is a figure I have seen for some level of contact, although I don’t know exactly what. I would in my arithmetic assume 50% for pessimism. I’m now at 1 in 400.
The intermediate contact isn’t showing any symptoms it appears - it’s not exactly known, but the current belief is pre-symptomatic people are less (possibly much less) contagious. I’m going to assume 5 times less, which I think is probably pessimistic. We combine that with the (pessimistic) contact transmission percentage above to get a 10% chance of transmission at this level; if I happen to know that this contact wasn’t close and/or extensive, I could probably divide that by 3 or more - but even so, I’m now at 1 in 4000 chance of it being an issue, as a probably high estimate of the likelihood of an issue.
I would try to let that logic assuage my anxiety.
sheothebudworths
Up the bum - no babies!!!
What makes me fearful, is how the response is and will be politcised.
I'm not scouring news because I'm directly worried about me and mine (I'm way more worried about the potential we might personally have to spread it).
I'm worried because the NHS was already in the process of being completely destroyed and because I have no faith in our own government as it is.
Also, how that extends, globally, during a huge health crisis - how health services will fare elsewhere, how different countries address it, how the advice differs, how we learn.
It's really outside of our normal experience.
What adds fuel to my own fire, is that it seemingly involves relinquishing the lives of elderly and/or vulnerable people, before the next decision is made - and that that is quite explicit.
I can read loads of rational stuff about why you have to continue along that path before different plans are put in place, but that's what keeps coming into view, for me, personally - that that's at the cost of lives which are more expendable/reduce further health costs anyway, for now?
Almost like a fucking bonus.
I have read every, single post on both the main threads and I am not feeling any more panicked or paranoid than I think I should be.
Soz for the wall of words but there we go, done now.
I'm not scouring news because I'm directly worried about me and mine (I'm way more worried about the potential we might personally have to spread it).
I'm worried because the NHS was already in the process of being completely destroyed and because I have no faith in our own government as it is.
Also, how that extends, globally, during a huge health crisis - how health services will fare elsewhere, how different countries address it, how the advice differs, how we learn.
It's really outside of our normal experience.
What adds fuel to my own fire, is that it seemingly involves relinquishing the lives of elderly and/or vulnerable people, before the next decision is made - and that that is quite explicit.
I can read loads of rational stuff about why you have to continue along that path before different plans are put in place, but that's what keeps coming into view, for me, personally - that that's at the cost of lives which are more expendable/reduce further health costs anyway, for now?
Almost like a fucking bonus.
I have read every, single post on both the main threads and I am not feeling any more panicked or paranoid than I think I should be.
Soz for the wall of words but there we go, done now.
pogofish
Testicle Hairstyle
This is probably why Prof Hugh Pennington has advised you use gin for the hand washing - he likes a good dram!
not-bono-ever
meh
Kings college hospital in SE London has a brace of inpatients who have tested positive.
quimcunx
imprimeo, lamino, distribuo
Do you mean two?
not-bono-ever
meh
yes
Steel Icarus
ersatz maven
Lol
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
From travel or community transmission?
Not good if the latter, the hospitals will be full of sick people IYSWIM
not-bono-ever
meh
dunno ...
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
I suppose this is how it will be now.
phillm
Trolling through Life (TM)
Many, many thanks, elbows for your erudite and informative information which you dispense without hyperbole or scaremongering. You are the Dr John Campbell of Urban and I am promoting your contributions on other forums. Do you know if there is any way to volunteer to help out in some way such as manning phones or such like? I am currently on quarantine with my wife for 14 days after returning from a holiday in Thailand and we have coughs and sore throats which is not difficult for us as we are retired but for the self-employed just making do I can't imagine it's an option. When we left Thailand everyone was screened with a heat camera by a medical team and two elderly gents were 'detained' for further examination no doubt and that's for people leaving the country. At Heathrow - nothing - just a photocopied piece of paper telling us if we have symptoms of a cough, shortness of breath or fever that we should stay indoors and call 111. I fear we are just weeks away from all hell breaking loose in terms of numbers, lockdowns and hospitals under siege, wish it was otherwise but given the inexorable logic of this nasty, vicious virus means it is almost a given. It is now our war, a world war - a war on this virus that will probably last 6 months or more and shape our lives forever.
Just signed up for this...
www.vice.com
Encouraging to have this guy in charge - a derided expert no less!
“Thank God he’s where he is to maintain some sense of sanity about all this coronavirus business,” Mabey added. “He’s an absolutely extraordinary, brilliant man. They couldn’t have a better person in charge. He’s exactly the man we need.”
www.theguardian.com
Just signed up for this...
Scientists Need Your Help to Find Treatments for Coronavirus
Different teams of scientists need the public's help to donate idle computing power and solve puzzles to fight Covid-19.
www.vice.com
Encouraging to have this guy in charge - a derided expert no less!
“Thank God he’s where he is to maintain some sense of sanity about all this coronavirus business,” Mabey added. “He’s an absolutely extraordinary, brilliant man. They couldn’t have a better person in charge. He’s exactly the man we need.”
Prof Chris Whitty: the expert we need in the coronavirus crisis
Even No 10 has realised the value of the ‘impressive’ chief medical officer for England
Last edited:
elbows
Well-Known Member
Thanks, sorry that I do not know anything about the volunteering opportunities.
I appear to be a bit worn out and am unable to sustain my output. Plenty of other people are contributing valuably to these threads, if I have stuck out its in part because I simply had a lot more time to dedicate to the task. I still have time, but I seem to have drained some sort of mental reserves, I feel spent.
I appear to be a bit worn out and am unable to sustain my output. Plenty of other people are contributing valuably to these threads, if I have stuck out its in part because I simply had a lot more time to dedicate to the task. I still have time, but I seem to have drained some sort of mental reserves, I feel spent.
sheothebudworths
Up the bum - no babies!!!
I reckon there's not a single poster who's read any of these threads who won't have noticed your input (thank you
) but equally, who wouldn't see you were due a break. Please rest. 
phillm
Trolling through Life (TM)
I'll have a look at the volunteering issue and report back looks like we are all going to have to pull together to beat this damn thing. Once I'm out of quarantine looking to help the neighbours on our row some are elderly and see if I can help with shopping, phone calls and the like to keep spirits up. Can see why you are burnt out having an intimate knowledge of what this is, and what it means for our communities is a difficult cross to bear but a big, big thank you from me. Over on Mumsnet they are going quite mad I fear.
Coronavirus (COVID-19) Forum | Mumsnet | Mumsnet
Worried about coronavirus? Want to discuss news / prevention tips / impact on families & children? Join Mumsnet's COVID-19 information forum.
www.mumsnet.com
elbows
Well-Known Member
Please spare far more of a thought for all the people who will be on the frontlines fighting this.
As for me, I dont really imagine being able to take more than a day here and theres mental break from matters. But in terms of my output I suppose my focus is likely to narrow, less of the science (but still a bit when interesting new stuff emerges and I actually manage to notice it), and fewer countries, more UK.
As for me, I dont really imagine being able to take more than a day here and theres mental break from matters. But in terms of my output I suppose my focus is likely to narrow, less of the science (but still a bit when interesting new stuff emerges and I actually manage to notice it), and fewer countries, more UK.
weltweit
Well-Known Member
The number of cases in the UK are increasing but for some reason, which escapes me, we are still not restricting incoming travel from infected areas.
I think this is a mistake, the Chinese moved to restrict movement and it seems to have worked for them, we might be leaving it too late, in China there was a centre of the virus outbreak in Wuhan, in Britain so far we have cases all over the place which will make it less possible for us to contain all these diverse infections were we to try. After the horse has bolted is no time to close the stable door.
I think this is a mistake, the Chinese moved to restrict movement and it seems to have worked for them, we might be leaving it too late, in China there was a centre of the virus outbreak in Wuhan, in Britain so far we have cases all over the place which will make it less possible for us to contain all these diverse infections were we to try. After the horse has bolted is no time to close the stable door.
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
You wouldn't say that if you saw what stables are like after the doors have been left open for a day or two. And mostly the horse wanders back anyway
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
up the wooden hills to Bedfordshire
BristolEcho
Well-Known Member
Wanted to echo the thanks shown by others!
elbows
Well-Known Member
Cheers.
A notable piece of 'build up the expert' here:
www.theguardian.com
A notable piece of 'build up the expert' here:
Prof Chris Whitty: the expert we need in the coronavirus crisis
Even No 10 has realised the value of the ‘impressive’ chief medical officer for England
None of that seems mad to me?I'll have a look at the volunteering issue and report back looks like we are all going to have to pull together to beat this damn thing. Once I'm out of quarantine looking to help the neighbours on our row some are elderly and see if I can help with shopping, phone calls and the like to keep spirits up. Can see why you are burnt out having an intimate knowledge of what this is, and what it means for our communities is a difficult cross to bear but a big, big thank you from me. Over on Mumsnet they are going quite mad I fear.
Coronavirus (COVID-19) Forum | Mumsnet | Mumsnet
Worried about coronavirus? Want to discuss news / prevention tips / impact on families & children? Join Mumsnet's COVID-19 information forum.
Brainaddict
slight system overdrive
There's a couple of universities I go into regularly. Both have loads of international students, including loads from China and South Korea. I was thinking it was paranoid to avoid them, but now two unis have been hit, including one that I visit....
elbows
Well-Known Member
Decision to withhold information is getting criticism, as it bloody well should.
www.theguardian.com
Move to weekly UK coronavirus updates criticised by experts
Decisions raises fears public won’t be able to make informed choices to help control outbreak
cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
phillm
Trolling through Life (TM)
If the spread continues as it has then I can't see any festivals going ahead.
www.kerrang.com
But....
news.sky.com
Glastonbury Respond To Concerns Over Cancellation Due To Coronavirus
The festival is still preparing for the June event, but also "closely monitoring developments with the coronavirus situation".
www.kerrang.com
But....
Coronavirus could shut down parliament for months under emergency plans
In the House of Lords, where the average age of peers is 70, fears have been expressed for the wellbeing of elderly members
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
So Johnson/Cummings is going to Corogue Parliament?If the spread continues as it has then I can't see any festivals going ahead.
Glastonbury Respond To Concerns Over Cancellation Due To Coronavirus
The festival is still preparing for the June event, but also "closely monitoring developments with the coronavirus situation".
But....
Coronavirus could shut down parliament for months under emergency plans
In the House of Lords, where the average age of peers is 70, fears have been expressed for the wellbeing of elderly members
What a gift.
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