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Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

A paper I had missed from November about one of the subjects I often go on about, sewage/wastewater surveillance.


There have been more trials and proper systems setup since I last looked. The paper contains interesting info about how Wales used a system to help them see what the tourism-related risks were for Wales, with such info feeding into policy.

Liverpool also yielded interesting data. This form of surveillance is, as expected, useful and valid.

Screenshot 2021-01-04 at 14.56.28.png

Liverpool – Data from Sandon Docks STW indicates that SARS-CoV-2 concentrations in wastewater track the dynamics of positive case rates in both the magnitude and direction of the disease. Liverpool represents a site with a sharp increase in positive cases from mid- September to late October 2020 (Figure S2, Appendix 7.3)
Plymouth – A distinct peak in virus load at the STW with no corresponding increase in the existing low positive case number was observed. The source was identified to be an isolated outbreak where positive case data was not included in the reported T&T numbers (Figure S3, Appendix 7.3)
Small City – Sampling of wastewater upstream of the STW provides potential for greater measurement acuity. Low viral concentrations were identified for five consecutive days, after two weeks of ND (not detected) results at a site receiving wastewater from a multi-occupancy residential building. A positive case was subsequently reported, suggesting that low shedding rates from individuals are identifiable. An order of magnitude increase in wastewater viral concentrations was observed and further tests revealed two positive individuals (Figure S4, Appendix 7.3)
Scotland - At Orkney STW (population equivalent 7750), virus was detected in the wastewater where less than 10 positive cases had been recorded in test numbers and Public Health Scotland were notified
 
I was assuming they would announce a Downing Street press conference for this evening, but the silence is deafening.

Maybe he would be more on the ball, if he got it and almost died from it. Oh, hang on a minute.

WTF is wrong with the twat?
I'd guess he's sat there sulking, doesn't want to make it look like he's being bounced into a decision by Sturgeon again. A mixture of petulance and trying to maintain shreds of dignity seems to be in play all the time now. For example, he just can't close all primary schools this week, purely on the grounds he's just opened them. How any government health or science adviser can stay in post whilst maintaining their own professional integrity eludes me.
 
I'd guess he's sat there sulking, doesn't want to make it look like he's being bounced into a decision by Sturgeon again. A mixture of petulance and trying to maintain shreds of dignity seems to be in play all the time now. For example, he just can't close all primary schools this week, purely on the grounds he's just opened them. How any government health or science adviser can stay in post whilst maintaining their own professional integrity eludes me.
... so, will he close schools? If he just follows Scotland, it's yes, but that makes him look weak and ridiculous, so who knows?
 
Will tier six be army in the streets enforcing lockdown? Or is that tier six plus?
I'm not sure we've got enough army left, TBH, A decade-plus of cheeseparing, on top of previous efforts, means that we're on the bones of our arse. For military, police, medical staff, teachers...it's almost as if austerity has come back to bite them on the arse, or something. They have precious few options, and it is probably only their incompetence that is preventing them from realising that.
 
Once again, ol' Pesto has the inside goss.




So, let's just pause here. Since some point early December, we've known about a new strain and that it was already pushing infection rates up, to the point where NHS services were at risk. In the space of 10 fucking days the government have given us:
A) A multigenerational superspreader day, basically a Christmas present for the virus. Also, primary schools opening.
B) Assuming the Peston stuff is accurate, a full national lockdown + closure of all schools. All in response to the same trends that were clear weeks ago.

JUST. WOW.
 
Looks to me that around 8k people have died (registered as Covid 28 days) since the last time that Johnson spoke on 19th December and passed up the opportunity to impose the lockdown that was so obviously needed even then.

He was in press conferences on the 21st and 30th December too.
 
So, let's just pause here. Since some point early December, we've known about a new strain and that it was already pushing infection rates up, to the point where NHS services were at risk. In the space of 10 fucking days the government have given us:
A) A multigenerational superspreader day, basically a Christmas present for the virus. Also, primary schools opening.
B) Assuming the Peston stuff is accurate, a full national lockdown + closure of all schools. All in response to the same trends that were clear weeks ago.

JUST. WOW.

Yeah open schools for one fucking day, just to stir the pot a bit. Genius.
 
So, let's just pause here. Since some point early December, we've known about a new strain and that it was already pushing infection rates up, to the point where NHS services were at risk. In the space of 10 fucking days the government have given us:
A) A multigenerational superspreader day, basically a Christmas present for the virus. Also, primary schools opening.
B) Assuming the Peston stuff is accurate, a full national lockdown + closure of all schools. All in response to the same trends that were clear weeks ago.

JUST. WOW.
Yeah open schools for one fucking day, just to stir the pot a bit. Genius.
Aside from the virology aspect, they've put so many education professionals and parents through so much fucking stress, and for fucking nothing. It's obscene from so many angles.
 
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