belboid
Exasperated, not angry.
Ann Coffey? I'm still not sure who she is. Not sure I'd really have heard much of Smith if she wasn't a local.
Change UK: Chuka Umunna resigns from Labour party and launches Independent Group
- Thread starter Kaka Tim
- Start date
Smokeandsteam
Working Class First
billy_bob
Air of bewilderment model's own
Yes, I think it's easy for people to fall into the trap of imagining that these are somehow the 'OK tories' because they're a little to the left of their peers on some issues. Even though they're still to the right of the insupportably right-wing monsters who've just deserted the labour party to join them.
Smith has been a bête noire of the Labour left over her water industry stuff for years. You're right about Coffey though though I guess.
Either way, what purpose does multiple people posting 'who?' to every resignation serve? It's easy to find out who someone is if you haven't heard of them. Is it supposed to signal that people think this is an insignificant development?
belboid
Exasperated, not angry.
This, absolutely
belboid
Exasperated, not angry.
Individually, other than Chuka & Berger, they are all pretty insignificant. The others weren't even successful Blairites. Add them all together and they just about manage to make themselves into a ripple amidst a tidal wave of shite.
Wilf
Slouching towards Billingham
For me the 'who' thing is just an insult really, imagining their egos would be deflated if they thought nobody had heard of them (though I imagine they don't read urban). No, the whole things isn't insignificant at all. At the moment it weakens Labour, though it was bound to happen at some point. But whether it has long term significance, it would be daft to predict anything at the moment. There could be a version of events where it strengthens the left in Labour, though I don't see them learning the right lessons, so that's one of the more unlikely outcomes.
chilango
Hypothetical Wanker
Yep. Me.
Shechemite
Be the sun and all will see you
The TIGGERs are unlikely to become electorally successful, nor should they be
In terms of impacts on other parties, of course it’s significant
chilango
Hypothetical Wanker
Is it?
I mean, yeah, right now, at Westminster, the bubble will be consumed by this.
But Brexit has kinda suspended "business as usual" for them anyway. All this does us amplify that .A little.
Outside the bubble? If they can take a significant chunk of the membership and on the ground Party machinery with them. If they can put together a coherent Party platform and if they can then appeal to enough if the electorate in enough places to get some MPs next GE then, and only then, might they be significant enough to become a footnote in political history like all the other similar groups before them.
Don't get me wring, it's interesting for political nerds like us. But significant? Nah.
Shechemite
Be the sun and all will see you
With the usual caveats regarding polling, they seem to be taking a big chunk of labour support.
And as much as many on the left might not want to think about AS in labour, the TIG (especially Berger’s and Ryan’s) defections have further raised the profile of labour/left antisemitism
chilango
Hypothetical Wanker
Doesn't matter how well they poll unless they can put out a coherent slate of candidates with the boots on the ground to run campaigns.
If they get to that point, then it's starts to have the potential to be significant.
Until then it's bubble games.
Wilf
Slouching towards Billingham
That's their key problem. The active membership and CLP structure isn't quite as Corbyn friendly as once was, particularly after his Brexit stance. But even so, I can't see too many current activists going over to a project that is at least part Tory.
I think it is significant but I can't work out whether the impact is going to be significant and if there is a significant impact what it will be.
Shechemite
Be the sun and all will see you
Activists (how many I dunno) are leaving, even if it’s not to TIG
Yep, suspect a lot of Labour supporters who may have been reasonably sympathetic will be a lot less so now it's a joint project with the Tories.
belboid
Exasperated, not angry.
Two polls, the first of which showed most support for TIG coming from the libdems.
And the defection of those tories means the new group will simply be seen as anti-brexit. They have to push that angle now or they won’t get any more Tory support.
Wilf
Slouching towards Billingham
With Berger leaving, I'm genuinely unsure how this affects the AS issue in Labour. Sorry, not a post full of startling analysis, I'm just really unsure whether it bolsters the issue or diverts it. That sounds a slightly cynical formulation I'm sure, but I'm not someone who minimises the problem. It's been a real issue in the way the left has operated for a long time (stuff for other threads of course). But how it plays out amid the tig defections seems unclear.
belboid
Exasperated, not angry.
Your friends on the right like to claim this, but they never actually put forward any evidence for it. The number of activists from the right who may have left is massively outweighed my the lefties who’ve joined.
Wilf
Slouching towards Billingham
Yes, certainly, but as you say not to tig or similar. Probably that whole wave who joined in the Corbyn revivalist meetings, but never really made it to becoming the kind of person who trudges the streets leafletting and the rest.
Shechemite
Be the sun and all will see you
My friend on the right?
belboid
Exasperated, not angry.
The ones you love to keep quoting as keepers of the truth (as long as its anti-labour). UNless of course you have some independent evidence for your claim that you're keeping quiet about.
cupid_stunt
Merry fecking Christmas.
Three polls, Survation, compared to their last poll, showed some of the TIG support coming from the LibDems (down 3%), leaving Labour on 34% (down 4%).
The other two showed most of the support coming from Labour, both reducing Labour's share to just 26%.
Shechemite
Be the sun and all will see you
Which right wing sources have I quoted re activists leaving belboid? Activists have said they are leaving. Unless they are secretly staying in the LP (and hey this plot runs deep so who knows eh) you’re being a bit daft.
And if the lefty politicos aren’t fussed about AS you can’t rrally expect Jews to refuse to use ‘right wing sources’.
That you still are clinging to his mindset even though it’s damaging the LP is just bizarre
And if the lefty politicos aren’t fussed about AS you can’t rrally expect Jews to refuse to use ‘right wing sources’.
That you still are clinging to his mindset even though it’s damaging the LP is just bizarre
moochedit
I'm not feeding seagulls
I'd take any polls with a pinch of salt.
IIRC the 80s SDP got over 50% in some opinion polls just after they launched but in real elections they of course got nothing like it.
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