Bristol Mayoral and Avon and Somerset PCC Elections 2021

[kalidarkone]

So I'm considering who to vote for. Currently I'm thinking Tom Baldwin - Trade Unionist and Socialist.

Latest Bristol mayoral candidate promises to give a voice to working class

Tom Baldwin has stood in the last two mayoral elections

www.bristol247.com

Regarding the Candidates for the Avon and Somerset Police and Crime commissioner I favour Cleo Lake, but am concerned that she has not mentioned anything regarding safety for women and victims of domestic abuse.

Candidates for Avon and Somerset police and crime commissioner revealed

Five individuals are standing

www.bristol247.com

Thoughts?

 

[gentlegreen]

Where do these Green candidates stand on science ?
Green party pages are covered in anti-GMO and even 5G nonsense ...
Clearly less of an issue for the PCC post, but a Green mayor is liable to encourage the local loons ,,,

 

[wiskey]

I need to spend some time reading up on everyone

 

[xenon]

I'd forgotten about this. I shred any post that isn't directly addressed to me, is in a glossy envelope or no envelope at all TBH. Just reading about the candidates today.

 

[BristolEcho]

Is anyone voting tomorrow? I keep forgetting and haven't looked at anything. I just googled Cleo and she seems alright on the whole and even though I don't really care who the PCC is I think it might be more important at the moment.


I'm massively unmotivated to be honest.

 

[JTG]

I never vote in PCC elections, fucking ridiculous charade. Abstained today.

Also abstained for WECA mayor because Dan Norris is a shitstain of a man who voted for Iraq and the other three parties are all awful

Tom Baldwin got my Bristol mayor vote. Finally decided to vote Rees as second pref in order to annoy the Greens and thwart their silly posh Noel Edmonds-alike candidate

Cllr was one TUSC and one Labour (cos he's been ace round here in doing Covid community support)

Fully expect a Rees victory and a surge of Green gains which will break all known scales of smugness at College Green

 

[xenon]

I voted.

I didn't realise there were 4 different elections.

Crime commissioner... Sorry what now. I know they're a thing but what's the policy difference

Voted TUSC / Labour for Bristol Mayor
Green for locals
Green / random indy guy for crime commissioner.


And Green / labour for the other mayor. Who er, is responsible for intagreted regional transport or something. The current one who is, erm, has. erm....

 

[BristolEcho]

Finished work late so didn't make it! Oh well let's see what happens.

 

[JTG]

Turnouts down on 2016 almost everywhere:

Local councillor elections 2021: turnout and results

www.bristol.gov.uk

Hartcliffe & Withywood 20% is a bit ouch. Not great news for Rees if the outer estates are down but the inner suburbs are holding up

Results over the weekend

 

[kalidarkone]

I voted Tom Baldwin for Mayor.
Cleo Lake (Green) for PCC.
Labour for Regional.

Didn't realise there was voting for councillors too so- can't even remember who I voted for but for my area (East Bristol) I voted Labour and Green. Had not looked any of these candidates up.....

 

[JTG]

PCC election has gone to a second round with Tories on 35% and Labour on 24%

 

[JTG]

 

[JTG]

Bristol Post has posted the Bristol only results for PCC:

Labour 45,973
Green 37,141
Conservative 28,442
Lib Dem 13,930
Independent 11,097

Possible pointers for the mayoral race there, though the Post rightly points out that Cleo Lake is better known in Bristol than Sandy Hore-Ruthven and Marvin Rees has a much higher profile than Kerry Barker. I do expect the run off to be between Rees and Hore-Ruthven, at which point second preferences may get very interesting if it's as close as it looks above. Where would Lib Dem votes go? Will Tories be able to stomach either of the two?

Initial announcement for WECA mayor will be around noon today (at the SS Great Britain no less) with the winner of the likely run off being announced in the afternoon. Bristol mayor will probably be around midnight, possibly later

 

[JTG]

For comparison - in 2016 the Bristol mayoral race saw Rees poll 56,729 in the first round with Ferguson on 32,375. Tories won 19,617 and Greens on 10,000

Obviously it's hardly a direct comparison but I think it's reasonable to assume that the Rees vote will be down (but not by much?) with the Ferguson vote splitting between the Tories, Lib Dems and Greens. It does look like the Greens will be up by a lot, overtaking the Tories and into the run off.

Obvious assumptions can be made around Green gains in central/west Bristol on the council with some Tory gains around the fringes. But we have to wait for Sunday for that!

 

[kalidarkone]

Counting under way in Bristol Mayor vote

Labour's Dan Norris was elected regional mayor earlier this evening

www.bristolpost.co.uk

 

[Geri]

I voted for Tom Baldwin as I didn't want to vote for Marvin Rees. They are all tossers though and TUSC are scum.

 

[gentlegreen]

I think I've now officially given up on politics again.
I actually joined the LP in 2019 as some sort of gesture and did one leaflet run and the guy coordinating insisted we stop off for a rest stop in a flag pub on the Kingswood border - that was more than enough for me...
I read none of the manifestos - I voted Labour for all of them and Green for the second votes ...

 

[JTG]

Counting under way in Bristol Mayor vote

Labour's Dan Norris was elected regional mayor earlier this evening

www.bristolpost.co.uk

Expert blokey on that blog is extrapolating a Norris win in the WECA vote based around what happened in the PCC. Certainly if it's closeish in the first round you might expect Norris to pull ahead on the second prefs of Lib Dem and Green voters

 

[JTG]

Turn out up across the region from 2017 but more so in Bristol than elsewhere, probably due to the Bristol mayoral/council votes unlike other areas where there was no other ballot aside from PCC

Would bode well for Labour given they just missed out four years ago

 

[JTG]

B&NES:
Dan Norris (LAB) 15,135
Jerome Thomas (GRN) 7,603
Samuel Williams (CON) 15,278
Stephen Williams (LD) 9,451

S Glos:
Dan Norris (LAB) 19,168
Jerome Thomas (GRN) 8,806
Samuel Williams (CON) 28,693
Stephen Williams (LD) 11,689

 

[JTG]

Given the 17k advantage for Lab over Tory in the PCC in Bristol, there's every chance that Norris could go well ahead once Bristol's votes are in...

 

[JTG]

Adam Postans reports that Samuel Williams sounding a little downbeat ("votes not as high as expected") and Green candidate expecting Norris to win once Bristol is in

 

[JTG]

Bristol:
Labour 50,131
Green 38,510
Conservative 28,444
Lib Dem 20,053

 

[JTG]

Final first round scores:

Dan Norris (Labour) 84,434
Jerome Thomas (Green) 54,919
Samuel Williams (Conservative) 72,415
Stephen Williams (Lib Dem) 41,193

Norris surely cantering home now

 

[JTG]

Labour GAIN WECA Mayor (Bristol metro) from Con

Second round:
Dan Norris Second pref votes: 41,048 Total: 125,482
Samuel Williams Second pref votes: 12,974 Total: 85,389

A rare of example of Bristol getting to impose its choice on the assorted suburban racists and village idiots who usually dictate our rulers in anything larger than the city itself

 

[JTG]

Mayor of Bristol:

Tom Baldwin - Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition - 3,194 votes
Robert Vernon Clarke - Reform UK – 806 votes
Sean Patrick Donnelly – Independent - 4,956 votes
Dr. Caroline Gooch - Liberal Democrat - 15,517 votes
Sandy Hore-Ruthven - Green Party - 36,331 votes
John Langley – Independent - 1,528 votes
Marvin Jonathan Rees - Labour Party - 50,510 votes
Oska Damon Shaw – 389 votes
Alastair Peter Lindsay Watson - Conservative Party - 25,816 votes

Second round:

Sandy Hore-Ruthven - Green Party – 9,322 = 45,653
Marvin Jonathan Rees – Labour Party – 8,766 = 59,276

Marvin Rees re-elected as mayor of Bristol for the next three years

 

[i_hate_beckham]

Tom will be very pleased with that amount of votes, he's a friend of mine and was hoping to better his 1800 last time by a couple of votes and get to 2000. I'm really happy for him.

I spoilt my ballot for WECA writing "This job shouldn't exist".

 

[JTG]

Tom will be very pleased with that amount of votes, he's a friend of mine and was hoping to better his 1800 last time by a couple of votes and get to 2000. I'm really happy for him.

I spoilt my ballot for WECA writing "This job shouldn't exist".

Fair few Labour lefts doing protest votes with a Marvin second pref for security I reckon

Ferguson vote seems to have split back to Lib Dems (doubled their vote), Tories (6k up) and Greens. Suspect some of Marvin's 2016 vote went Green or stayed home

 

[i_hate_beckham]

Sound analysis.

It's a bit crap Rees has got back in, he's been so ineffectual and this time round I won't get to meet Jeremy Corbyn.

 

[JTG]

I prefer Rees to the Green bellend tbh

One lesson of Bristol politics is that everyone is ineffectual. Nothing happens here, ever. fwiw I think Rees has probably made more headway than anyone else, probably by ignoring everyone who doesn't suit him. Which is of course one of the chief criticisms of him.