Balkanisation of Libya, and international impact?

[frogwoman]

http://www.theguardian.com/world/20...-abuse-video-condemned-libya-al-hadba-tripoli

A video appearing to show Saadi Gaddafi, son of Libya’s late dictator Muammar, being abused in jail has been condemned by lawyers and rights groups.

The nine-minute video appears to show Saadi, 42, in a green tracksuit, being hooked up to an improvised rack, apparently while in custody at Tripoli’s maximum security al-Hadba prison. Segments show him sitting blindfolded and forced to listen to screams of other detainees being beaten in an adjacent room.

“It raises serious concerns about the methods used to interrogate al-Saadi Gaddafi and other detainees at al-Hadba prison,” said Joe Stork, deputy Middle East Director of Human Rights Watch. “The Tripoli authorities need to urgently establish exactly what did occur.”

 

[teqniq]

“The Tripoli authorities need to urgently establish exactly what did occur.”

Good luck with that.

 

[frogwoman]

http://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/isis-rises-in-libya

Bollocks

 

[Pickman's model]

“The Tripoli authorities need to urgently establish exactly what did occur.”

Good luck with that.

i don't think they need to establish it being as i have no doubt they ordered it.

 

[Pickman's model]

http://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/isis-rises-in-libya

Bollocks

not sure they'll attract many recruits with that sort of vehicle colour scheme.

 

[teqniq]

i don't think they need to establish it being as i have no doubt they ordered it.

Well yes.

 

[frogwoman]

Have Daesh recruited from gaddafi loyalists the way they did with saddam loyalists in iraq?

 

[frogwoman]

not sure they'll attract many recruits with that sort of vehicle colour scheme.

I know!

 

[elbows]

http://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/isis-rises-in-libya

Bollocks

There is some good detail in that article, but also some bollocks.

These attacks focused attention on the fact that Libya, a vast, oil-rich, underpopulated country with a long southern-Mediterranean coastline, has become part of the self-proclaimed ISIS caliphate.

No it hasn't. Must pay attention to what ISIS are doing in Libya, but very suspicious of narratives that hype up their status in Libya to that extent.

I'll try to find out more but I don't expect much quality info to be around.

 

[elbows]

Have Daesh recruited from gaddafi loyalists the way they did with saddam loyalists in iraq?

A large complication when trying to ascertain more on that is that the government in Tripoli already accuse the government that fled east of being dodgy Gaddafi types, trying to thwart the glorious revolution. So when they also claim that ISIS are Gaddafi loyalists, it's hard to know if this is simply an extension of that propaganda line.

 

[elbows]

Did a bit more research, nothing great. But I got a strong sense that the successes and failures of ISIS in Libya are more about allegiances than battles. There are a lot of fighters and a lot of islamists all over the place, and where such groups have decided to convert to the ISIS brand, ISIS often achieved immediate territorial gains by virtue of the territory, assets and influence the groups already had before they became ISIS affiliated.

Thats not to say there haven't been territorial gains made due to actual fighting, but a lot of the violence, as so often in post-Gaddafi Libya, is in the form of skirmishes and many uneasy stalemates.

That they lost Derna is significant. Again it sounds like it was down to picking fights with other islamist elements, both those that had lots of established power locally, and those that have a government in Tripoli.

 

[Casually Red]

A large complication when trying to ascertain more on that is that the government in Tripoli already accuse the government that fled east of being dodgy Gaddafi types, trying to thwart the glorious revolution. So when they also claim that ISIS are Gaddafi loyalists, it's hard to know if this is simply an extension of that propaganda line.

They're talking shite , basically . As they were from the very beginning .

 

[frogwoman]

I posted this in the Daesh thread but im not sure how many people are reading it.

http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/...amic-states-burgeoning-capital-in-sirte-libya

Very worrying if its accurate.

 

[teqniq]

Apparently there been some sort of uprising against IS in Sirte but:

wheelertweets: "GNC (Tripoli) traitors. Parliament (Tobruk) traitors. All of them traitors. Jostling for power." http://twitter.com/wheelertweets/status/632099816290414592

 

[frogwoman]

There were demonstrations in Daesh areas against the gaddafi supporters getting put to death, a few weeks ago and Daesh shot at the people on the demo there might be some cooperation going on

http://en.alwasat.ly/en/news/libya/...il-company-head-kills-protestors-in-Sirte.htm

In another incident, the Gadhadfha tribe members came out the day before yesterday in the same Abu Hadi area demonstrating against the Tripoli court's decision to execute former regime officials, including Saif al-Islam Gaddafi, waving green flags. The protestors clashed with ISIS militants after they tried to disperse the demonstration, one was killed and several were wounded. - See more at: http://en.alwasat.ly/en/news/libya/...-protestors-in-Sirte.htm#sthash.jyIxfSzE.dpuf

Daesh also control an airport

 

[frogwoman]

Pro gaddafi protest in daesh controlled sirte

 

[agricola]

A Foreign Office minister writes.

 

[Casually Red]

 

[elbows]

British policy has clearly changed as a result of terror attacks, migrant issues, and to an unknown extent IS.

Quite how idiotic that piece is will be affected by events tomorrow - will a deal be sealed or not? The head of the GNC (Tripoli Islamist government) delegation resigned today, so something is happening, but as usual with Libya I lack the quality info to say much more than that or make any predictions.

 

[frogwoman]

A militia in Libya’s most notorious smuggling town has made a rare show of force against the area’s influential smuggling gangs, capturing some of those alleged to be responsible for the drowning of up to 300 people on Thursday.

The Masked Brigade, a militia that says it upholds law and order in Zuwara in the absence of a functioning Libyan state, seized three men this weekend.

It accused them of responsibility for the sinking of a boat carrying between 400 and 500 people hoping to reach Europe.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/20...lers-allegedly-responsible-for-migrant-deaths

Fucking hell...anyone know anything about these guys?

 

[teqniq]

Nope but if they've got the right people fair play to them.

 

[teqniq]

Heh I just posted that link on FB and someone straightaway replied 'Who.? Blair / Cameron / Wassisname president.???'

They have a point

 

[elbows]

Quite how idiotic that piece is will be affected by events tomorrow - will a deal be sealed or not? The head of the GNC (Tripoli Islamist government) delegation resigned today, so something is happening, but as usual with Libya I lack the quality info to say much more than that or make any predictions.

In the event the resignation was used as an excuse for why the GNC were not present, with hope still expressed that they will be present soon. I think they are going to try again in Geneva next week. The UN are desperate to get something in place before the current mandate needs renewing in mid-September.

 

[elbows]

This is the mix of optimistic language and extremely tight deadlines thats on display right now:

UN sees Libya talks entering final mile, eyes September 20 deal

Leon met negotiators from Libya’s General National Congress (GNC) for five hours on Friday and said he expected to hold a new round of talks next Wednesday, which diplomats said would take place in Skhirat in Morocco.

The target date for an agreement has been repeatedly pushed back, and Leon said the most difficult work was still ahead, with the two sides yet to tackle the question of who would be in the government and State Council.

The mandate of the House of Representatives, seat of Libya’s internationally recognised government, expires in October, and Leon has said it would be extremely risky to reach October without a deal.

Both sides are under pressure from hardliners, and Leon may also be looking to step down soon, diplomats have said.

 

[elbows]

And so another crunch day looms large.

Leon has now headed back to Skhirat in Morocco for the start tomorrow, Thursday, of what is seen as the most decisive session of the Libya Dialogue negotiations, the naming of the prime minister and two deputy prime ministers heading the new Government of National Accord.

He met some tribal leaders in Cairo. Includes a description of a farcical meeting earlier this year which I missed:

Plans for a meeting of tribal leaders as a part of the Libya Dialogue process were announced back in February, but had not occured till now. In part that was because a number of tribal leaders had said that they would not take part in talks outside Libya although there was a gathering of Libyan tribes in the Egyptian capital at the end of May.

It turned out to be a raucous event with some delegates ending up in a brawlin front of the Egyptian prime minister.

Today’s was a much better behaved event, although there are claims that a number of tribal chiefs who had turned up in Cairo refused to meet Leon.

https://www.libyaherald.com/2015/09/09/lyon-meet-libya-tribal-representatives-in-cairo/

 

[elbows]

Also I note a Libya-IRA weapons compensation inquiry has begun. I'm not well informed about this era of history and have had too many migraines this week to get my act together properly, but perhaps someone wants to start a new thread about that.

All I know at this point is that there is a lot of anger involving Blair and the accusation that he blocked compensation for IRA victims, and the failure to get him to attend this inquiry.

Victims outraged over failure to ask Blair to Libya-IRA inquiry - Belfast Newsletter

 

[elbows]

I've not heard anything yet about the UN stuff today.

In the meantime here are a couple of recent Libya Herald articles which may indicate additional areas of fracture and potential realignments and/or fresh pressures to make or break deals.

https://www.libyaherald.com/2015/09/08/pro-dialogue-demonstration-in-zawia/

Pro-Dialogue demonstration in Zawia
By Libya Herald reporter. Tripoli, 8 September 2015:

An estimated 200 people gathered in Zawia’s Martyrs’ Square this afternoon, demonstrating in favour of the UN-brokered Libya Dialogue, and against terrorism. The demonstration follows a protest in the town two days ago against the Dialogue and UN Special Envoy Bernardino Leon.

Today’s gathering was organised by one of the town’s boycotting members of the House of Representatives (HoR), brigade leader Ali Zaraiba. Like most of the authorities in Zawia, he was previously a supporter of Libya Dawn and his force is fought in last year’s clashes with the Warshefana. However, he now backs the Dialogue and the establishment of a Government of National Accord.

As the two demonstrations indicate, Zawia is split over the Dialogue. There are still hardliners who oppose any settlement with the HoR. However, four of its brigades are now reported to favour compromise and back the Dialogue. Today’s demonstrators, some of whom were dressed in civilian clothing, others in military uniform, were seen being protected by militiamen. The protests also included a convoy of military as well as other vehicles.

https://www.libyaherald.com/2015/09...ipoli-spreads-toward-capital-cuts-coast-road/

Tripoli, 9 September 2015:

Heavy fighting which broke out this afternoon near Sabratha between local revolutionaries backed by Western Libya Shield fighters and a Libyan National Army (LNA) Supported Forces unit, intensified during the evening and triggered other clashes in Sayad, west of Janzour. The coast road was reported to be closed.

Involving heavy weapons, the fighting in Sayed is said to be between Warshefana forces and the Fursan Janzour brigade, part of the revolutionaries’ alliance supporting the General National Congress in Tripoli.

Both sets of clashes have, however, been condemned by Colonel Idris Madi, the head of the LNA’s Tripoli (formerly Western) Operations Room based in Zintan. In a statement, he said that what was happening had not been launched by the LNA, was an illegal operation and the responsibility of those involved.

Reinforcements have been sent to the revolutionaries from Zawia, from the Furqan brigade, one of a number of local Islamist brigades controlled by Abu Obeida Al-Zawi. It is further reported that fighters from Sabratha, Zawia and Sorman who last week were said to have moved in to “protect” the Mellitah gas complex near Zuwara have gone to join the fight.

In an unrelated development on Tuesday night but equally indicative of the lack of LNA control over local forces, there was fighting between a Supported Forces unit and LNA military police on the road between Al-Assa and Rigdaleen in the Jebel Nafusa. The skirmishes, said to have involved the Warshfana’s Al-Keba brigade led by Mohammed Eshtewi, did not result in any casualties.

It is the first time that there have been clashes in the region between units supposedly under the control of the western Libya operations room based in Zintan and supporting the House of Representatives in Tobruk.

 

[DotCommunist]

Also I note a Libya-IRA weapons compensation inquiry has begun. I'm not well informed about this era of history and have had too many migraines this week to get my act together properly, but perhaps someone wants to start a new thread about that.

All I know at this point is that there is a lot of anger involving Blair and the accusation that he blocked compensation for IRA victims, and the failure to get him to attend this inquiry.

Victims outraged over failure to ask Blair to Libya-IRA inquiry - Belfast Newsletter

royal navy nabbed one of what they think was three deliveries. Enough small and long arms plus plastique on that one boat to make your blood run cold.


I think gaddafi was in full mental mode at this point, the yanks kept bombing tripoli etc

 

[elbows]

The UN talks are in progress, I think both Libyan 'governments' turned up.

UN envoy sees 'moment of truth' in Libya talks

Leon of the UN is continuing to talk tough about the September 20 deadline, and it does look like ISIS gains are being used to turn the thumbscrews:

Leon said a deal on creating a unity government could be reached "in the coming days", but that difficult work remained before a final accord.

The rising influence of the Islamic State jihadist group in Libya and the country's emergence as a smuggling hub for migrants risking their lives to cross the Mediterranean have added urgency to the long-running and often derailed UN talks.

According to Leon on Thursday, Islamic State fighters had "in the last hours" taken control of the offices of the Libyan central bank and several private banks in the coastal city of Sirte, calling it a "very concerning and very serious development".

 

[elbows]

It seems that yesterday the UN security council extended the UN mission to Libya to March 2016.

UN News - Security Council extends UN mission in Libya, urges parties to finalize political accord

I have to say that given all the attention towards ISIS, people smuggling, refugees etc, it's interesting that so little media attention is paid to ISIS in Sirte. Its getting on for a month since the last flurry of stories about it, and I haven't seen many pick up on the 'ISIS take control of bank offices' news yet.