Balkanisation of Libya, and international impact?

[frogwoman]

Yeah been going on a while unfortunately but yeah hardly anything about it in the media.

 

[teqniq]

I think maybe there's a certain amount of 'brushing it under the carpet' involved what with our gung-ho intervention that had led to the current mess.

 

[elbows]

If we look at the BBC coverage over the entire period going back to the start of the uprising, in terms of both its content and intensity at different points, it was certainly the BBC at its most blatant. This was clear at the time and no surprise, but I was surprised by quite how quickly they faded out their focus on Libya, not very subtle.

 

[elbows]

It doesn't sound like the UN talks are going very well:

https://www.libyaherald.com/2015/09/12/slow-going-in-skhirat-gnc-team-flies-home-for-consultations/

 

[elbows]

The latest on UN talks - House of Reps side have been asked to make concessions.

https://www.libyaherald.com/2015/09/13/leon-calls-on-hor-to-accept-gnc-amendments-to-dialogue-draft/

By the way Libya Herald is hardly free from obvious bias, but there are not many alternatives.

Also in regards to ISIS and the banks in SIrte:

A source in Sirte has told the Libya Herald that the Islamic State (IS) forces in the town had not taken over and looted the Central Bank, as widely reported earlier.

What happened, according to the source, was that on Thursday, IS went to all banks in the town and closed them. They ordered all staff to turn up to the main mosque on Friday after evening prayer to repent for having being involved in dealing with interest (usury or riba) and ask for forgiveness. Most went.

The banks must change to Islamic banking, IS has demanded. When they have made the change, they can re-open, the source said.

In any event, taking over the Central Bank in Sirte would be little more than a symbolic gesture. No money has been transferred to Sirte for many months. There is said to be almost no money held in the other banks either.

https://www.libyaherald.com/2015/09...irte-orders-them-to-change-to-sharia-banking/

 

[elbows]

Splits within both the GNC and the HoR presently dominate the libya herald coverage of UN negotiations, with Leon still sounding upbeat despite so many different ways that it could all fall apart:

https://www.libyaherald.com/2015/09/17/breaking-news-gnc-stormed-by-militia-reports/

Armed men are reported to have stormed the General National Congress (GNC) in Tripoli this afternoon as it met to discuss acceptance of the amended Libya Dialogue Draft and to propose names for the posts of prime minister and deputy prime minister.

It is reported, but unconfirmed, that those behind the attack are Dialogue opponents Salah Badi, Sami Saadi and Abdurraouf Al-Manaie.

Guns were said to have been fired into the air and fist-fighting inside the chamber. There were also reports, similarly unconfirmed, that at least one member was seized. He was said be Abdulgassem Gzeit, a prominent support of the Dialogue. However, he later appeared on TV claiming that the storming had been carried out with the connivance of the president, Nuri Abu Sahmain.

https://www.libyaherald.com/2015/09...d-members-still-expects-final-deal-by-sunday/

UN Special Envoy has announced a deal on the amended Dialogue Draft between the House of Representatives (HoR) delegation to the Libya Dialogue talks in Skhirat and a number of HoR boycotters . He claims it “the most important good news that our dialogue has produced so far”.

Under the agreement, the boycotters are to rejoin the HoR, although it is not known when.

Despite Leon’s enthusiasm and his talk of an “historic day”, the extent of HoR support for the amended Draft remains far from clear.

On Tuesday, it announced its rejection of it, calling back its delegates at Skhirat for consultations. Two returned to Tobruk, Sadiq Mohamed and Saleh Huma. The other two, Deputy HoR President Emhemed Shouaib and Abubakr Baera, remained.

It was these latter two who have reached a deal with the boycotters on the agreement. Shouaib is now reported to be going back to Tobruk to sell it to the rest of the HoR who are expected to debate the issue on Sunday.

 

[elbows]

Hafter has been popping up in the news again recently, in various dodgy ways.

Libyan PM Abdullah al-Thinni arrested at Labraq airport

Libya’s internationally recognised government’s prime minister, Abdullah al-Thinni was arrested at Labraq airport on Tuesday afternoon, MaltaToday has learnt.

Al-Thinni was prevented from boarding a flight to Malta by security officials. The Libya Herald reported that the officials were carrying out orders from top military figures, seen as a reference to General Khalifa Hafter.

It now transpires that al-Thinni was in fact arrested and an investigation by a military court would be launched after the Libyan PM reportedly refused to answer questions.

It is understood that General Hafter is treating the matter as “a legal military order”.

Al-Thinni was meant to address a conference in Malta organised by the Libyan National Oil Corporation. He was scheduled to address international oil contractors early Wednesday morning.

https://www.libyaherald.com/2015/09...est-against-hafters-planned-military-council/

A group of Ajdabiya residents gathered in the town’s main square yesterday afternoon to protest at Khalifa Hafter’s plans to set to a military council to run Libya. The grou said that Libya had to be a democratic state. Clearly federalists and waving Cyrenaica flags – not a Libyan flag could be seen – they also called for the restoration of the 1951 constitution.

There have been reports that Hafter plans to announce the council tomorrow, Sunday.

Suggestions that yesterday’s protest was organised by the key military operator in the town, Ibrahim Jadhran, have been denied by a source close to him. The source claimed the protests had been spontaneous and no one was behind it.

Jadhran has come out firmly against Hafter, accusing him of trying to kill him. The new animosity is said to follow a visit by Jadhran to Tobruk last week at the invitation of the Obeida tribe. According to the Jadhran source, he Hafter’s forces as well as military police and the security forces belonging to the House of Representatives president, Ageela Saleh Gwaider, tried separately to arrest him just outside Tobruk, but failed.

https://www.libyaherald.com/2015/09/19/new-benghazi-operation-announced-by-hafter/

There were heavy air strikes this afternoon in Benghazi’s Leithi, Gwarsha and Sabri districts following the announcement of a new military operation against the Islamic State and other militant groups in the city.

The launch of Operation Doom (Hatif) was unveiled earlier in the day by the head of Libyan armed forces, General Khalifa Hafter, at a military gathering at Benina Airbase. Almost all the army and air force top brass in Benghazi were present, includeing the head of Saiqa Special Forces, Colonel Wanis Bukhamada, and the head of the Benghazi Operations Room, Colonel Ali Elthemen.

According to Hafter, the operation will be intensive, will see greater coordination between air and ground forces, and will target the militants’ weapon and supply stores as well as their bases.

 

[elbows]

The UN mission is not happy with Hafter:

https://www.libyaherald.com/2015/09...hazi-says-it-aims-to-undermine-peace-efforts/

“The timing of airstrikes clearly aims at undermining the on-going efforts to end the conflict,” it said in a statement issued from Skhirat, Morocco, where the UN-brokered Libya Dialogue negotiations are taking place.

Hafter yesterday unveiled his latest bid, Operation Doom (Hatif), to rid Benghazi of Islamic State (IS) fighters and other militants. It is supposed to be a coordinated ground and air strategy to deal with them once and all and targeted primarily in the city’s Leithi, Gwarsha and Sabri districts.

“A military solution is not a viable option in Libya”, UNSMIL said, noting that already too many civilians had been killed or wounded, more than 100,000 displaced and areas reduced to rubble in the battle for Benghazi. The latest air offensive would merely add to residents’ suffering, it added.

“Whether in Benghazi or elsewhere in the country, armed hostilities have shown time and again that they can only bring destruction and suffering for the Libyan people.”

The airstrikes, it claimed, were “a clear attempt to undermine and derail the on-going efforts to end the conflict at a time when the negotiations have entered a final and most critical stage.”

Demanding for an immediate ceasefire in the city, UNSMIL also called on key figures who support the Dialogue to use their influence to de-escalate the military situation.

 

[elbows]

Operation Doom is certainly causing diplomatic problems, and makes Libyan Heralds bias more obvious.

https://www.libyaherald.com/2015/09/20/row-and-split-over-envoys-claims-army-aiming-for-civilians/

The joint statement issued by ambassadors from the EU, France, Germany, Italy, Portugal, Spain, UK, US, Turkey and Morocco condemned “ the sharp rise in hostilities in Libya on the eve of the Eid Al-Adha including air strikes against civilian population in Benghazi”.

A similar statement from UNSMIL touched on the alleged civilian targeting more obliquely. It said: “The Mission calls on the parties to the conflict to cease immediately all indiscriminate attacks, noting that attacks against civilians are prohibited under international humanitarian law and could constitute war crimes, and that those responsible will be fully held accountable”.

Though unlike the EU, which does not mention IS and Ansar Al-Sharia attacks in Benghazi, UNSMIL called on all parties to the conflict to spare civilians.

Both statements have reignited claims by Libyans that both the UN and EU and US envoys are biased towards Islamists. Social media posts have demanded proof that government airstrikes have deliberately been targeted at civilians.

https://www.libyaherald.com/2015/09/21/hor-slams-unsmil-army-fighting-terrorism-not-the-dialogue/

The House of Representatives has angrily rejected UNSMIL’s condemnation of the army’s new Operation Doom to gain full control of Benghazi.

An HoR spokesman has told the Libya Herald: “We are very surprised by the UNSMIL statement from Bernadino Leon and do not accept it.”

UNSMIL has characterised the attack as an attempt to undermine the peace process.

However the HoR sees no connection between Operation Doom and the Dialogue. “The army is fighting IS terrorists in Benghazi, who do not believe in civil government” said the spokesman,. “And the people are supporting the army”.

 

[teqniq]

 

[elbows]

Libya Herald now has a piece on that latest Thinni plane incident that manages to provide no useful additional details.

What it does manage is a stroll through the rich history of Thinni air travel prevention incidents, as well as resignations and a bunch of other stuff.

https://www.libyaherald.com/2015/09/21/premier-thinni-blocked-from-yet-another-flight/

In March guards at Labraq, the airport serving the present government base at Beida prevented him boarding a plane in protest over his choice of Interior Minister. This protest came shortly after army units blocked his official car from taking him to visit the front line in nearby Benghazi.

In August 2014 it was Libya Dawn militias doing the blocking, refusing to let him fly out of Tripoli’s Mitiga airport as the city erupted into open war.

With Thinni narrowly escaping an assassination attempt in May close to the House of Representatives’ (HoR) headquarters at Tobruk naval base, he has had every excuse for quitting and has done so twice.

Less than a month into the his appointment as caretaker prime minister in April last year he resigned, citing threats to his family, but later said he had not submitted his resignation letter.

Then last month he again announced his resignation, this time live on television after a barrage of angry comments during a phone-in programme. “I officially resign and I will submit my resignation to the House of Representatives on Sunday,” he said. Later he changed his mind, officials saying he meant to say he would quit if the Libyan people demanded it.

Despite the turbulence, some see Thinni as Libya’s great political survivor. His appointment last year came out of the blue when, from defence minister, he was elevated to the top job. His predecessor, Ali Zeidan, had escaped via Tripoli airport fearing for his life when the General National Congress (GNC) tried to impeach him.

When the GNC was dissolved, in UN-supervised elections for the HoR, Thinni was chosen as the new parliament’s first prime minister.

 

[elbows]

Back when it was still possible to claim that Libya did not yet resemble a failed state, I used to moan especially at people who said it would be another Iraq or Afghanistan. Mostly because it seemed clear that the nature of Libya, its divisions and the fighting forces within it, would mean that any fighting, civil war etc would not really resemble the conflicts in those other countries. I said it would be more like Africa, meaning it would share some characteristics with a cliche'd western view of a 'typical' African war, complete with a cast of mercenaries and warlords, and battles that could be fought with relatively few men and a distinct lack of certain classes of military equipment. I'm afraid stories like the one in my previous post do little do dissuade me from this crude analysis.

 

[elbows]

The latest UN mission positive spin, setting out a timetable for the final phase leading up to the October 20th deadline, a deadline they have real trouble moving beyond because the House of Representatives mandate runs out then (!). I say positive spin because he missed his target of getting names agreed by September 20th, and both Libyan 'governments' have yet to officially agree to the deal.

https://www.libyaherald.com/2015/09...final-text-and-new-government-in-coming-days/

Later in the article Libya Herald discusses a number of areas where things could easily go very wrong. And the fact that the EU are waving a 100 million euro carrot at Libya. And the Herald lapses into its obvious bias (e.g. not happy about international criticism of military operations in Benghazi) at one point.

Leon of the UN also appears to address Hafters shit-stirring military council idea:

Referring clearly to Khalifa Hafter’s widely reported plans for a military council to run Libya (although not mentioning it by name), he dismissed it out of hand. It would not get any recognition or support from the international community and would “just multiply the chaos that Libya is facing”.

 

[elbows]

More deals of unknown durability, with conflicting info but nonetheless an indication that real and various deals have been done recently. Whether they are still intact, last long enough and avoid getting trumped by other stuff collapsing is not something I'd like to bet on. One thing thats very clear is this isn't simply a possible peace deal between 2 sides. There are many sides and forces at play here, and potential realignments are always of interest. Especially as both of the two 'governments' involved appear to have noisy factions that are against a deal, whilst many carrots may be available to encourage others to play ball.

https://www.libyaherald.com/2015/09/27/conflicting-reports-over-misrata-and-zintan-moves/

Misratan units are said to have reinforced positions south west of the capital amid fears that its military rapprochement with Zintan and the Warshafana has broken down.

Social media showed photos of armoured vehicles supposedly from Zintan approaching Zahra bridge, still guarded by Misratan forces, while military sources in Misrata said they feared an imminent attack on Tripoli.

However, Janzur Municipal Council has announced on its social media site that the arrival of Zintani forces in nearby Azziziya posed no threat and that they were there as part of an agreement to protect the new national unity government and to set up security positions around the capital.

For the past few weeks, there have been persistent reports from reliable Libyan and diplomatic sources that, in preparation for the new UN-brokered government, the Zintanis and Misratans had agreed and planned a joint force to secure Tripoli.

Over the same period, Misrata has pulled its forces out of the area west of the city, doing peace deals with Warshefana and others in the area, much to the anger of hardliners in Tripoli (as well as in Misrata itself) who want no agreement with their enemies.

In a reciprocal move by Zintan, it pulled back it forces, insisting that it would not launch any attacks.

Despite the latest moves around Zahra Bridge, sources in Zintan have told the Libya Herald that there has been no mobilisation or any change in its strategy.

However in Misrata itself over the weekend, there have been efforts spearheaded by the head of the Tripoli “government”, Khalifa Ghwell, to draw the city back to the cause of Libya Dawn and opposition to any deal, including one with the House of Representatives.

 

[elbows]

The likes of the Guardian saw fit to write about Libya last week so I can finally use a source other than Libya Herald.

Ban Ki-moon calls for Libya peace deal as factions miss ceasefire deadline

It highlights many of the problems with the current attempts at peace/unity government. I'm not sure if it has described the picture with armed groups properly or not - it depends if my few other sources of Libya news were talking shit or not. It kind of matters because that stuff, not covered one bit by the Guardian, was a sign that some allegiances were shifting and moves being made - e.g. Misratan component of Libya Shield withdrawing from Tripoli. The Guardian version of whats been happening around Tripoli is different and gives no glimpse of any deals.

Anyway to no great surprise very little was decided at the UN headquarters meetings so the process staggers on at talks in Morocco which started today.

Meanwhile, returning to Libya Herald news items:

A small earthquake hit Marj, early this morning just hours after Prime Minister Abdullah Thinni was there for talks with the head of the Libyan armed forces, General Khalifa Hafter, aimed at rebuilding their working relationship. Last month, Thinni was prevented twice from flying from Labraq airport, allegedly on Hafter’s orders.

https://www.libyaherald.com/2015/10...in-marj-as-pm-and-hafter-agree-rapprochement/

 

[teqniq]

What if Libya’s Political Dialogue Fails?

 

[elbows]

That article goes a bit weird in places, at the end it seems to attribute strange powers to the Constitution Drafting Committee, as if they are the kingmakers. Quite literally, given the equally bizarre emphasis on the 1951 constitution and a return to constitutional monarchy as if that were an option that could unite Libya.

 

[teqniq]

Maybe the writer is clutching at straws. I wondered about the monarchy thing too.

 

[elbows]

Well I suppose never say never, but I can't think of a reason why that particular option might be seen as a realistic alternative at this point.

I might also be moaning about that article because I hate teases about foreign meddling, proxies etc. Because that stuff can have a big influence on outcomes, and it winds me up when analysis mentions it in a single sentence or two but doesn't go into detail or apply the implications of that detail to the rest of the analysis.

 

[elbows]

Reaction to leadership names for the UN-backued unity government has been predictably bad. But some of the detail is fascinating and continues to point to potential realignments.

For example Misrata municipality has backed the deal. The Zintan Military Council has rejected it but also rejected the House of Representatives and went on about how shit the HoR are and drew attention to their imminently expiring mandate. And some of the usual suspects in the east are demanding name changes and threatening the announcement of a military council to rule the country.

If the following story is accurate then Haftar may already have a component of HoR power in his grasp:

Colonel Moamin Bozohra, chief of Al-Bayda Security Department, has issued an arrest warrant against the spokesperson of Al-Thanni interior ministry Tareq Al-Kharraz for criticizing him.

Renegade General Khalifa Haftar appointed Colonel Bozohra as the General Commander of Police Forces last week. Shortly, Bozohra and other security chiefs in eastern Libya disowned Al-Thanni government saying orders will only be taken from "the General Commander of the Army."

Al-Kharraz criticized Bozohra's appointment as illegitimate, telling media that appointment of a general commander for police is the responsibility of the parliament.

The General Commander of Police post was invented by rogue General Haftar to put all security services under his command in preparations for his military council.

Pro-Haftar police chief orders arrest of Al-Thanni interior ministry spokesperson | The Libya Observer

 

[elbows]

The GNC appear to be rather pissed off with Misrata council for backing the deal:

https://www.libyaherald.com/2015/10...n-councillors-to-stick-to-town-hall-politics/

In a sharply-worded letter from the Libya Dawn government, Misratan councillors have been told to get on with running their city and stop meddling in national politics.

“It is better for you to look after providing services to residents rather than involve yourselves in the political situation” the letter from the Khalifa Ghwell Tripoli government read.

It was sent in reaction to the Misrata Municipalities’ call for both the remaining GNC and the House of Representatives to support the planned new government of Fayez Sarraj.

The letter also condemned Misratan councillors for hailing the Skirhat deal, because it was “ a fake national agreement which will be used by the enemies of our country to steal our resources”.

It continued that if the Misratan local leaders “thought the deal was important for the people of Misrata, they should wait for the approval of the illegal House of Representatives before issuing any statement”.

Misratan councillors, it added were not the guardians of the Libyan people.

The letter is interesting, in that many ministers in the Dawn government are from Misrata, as is Ghwell himself.

 

[elbows]

And here is Libya Observers take on the same story.

Salvation Government lashes out at Misrata Municipality statement | The Libya Observer

In terms of bias, Libya Herald which I have been using extensively to date had undisguised bias towards and contacts with the 'internationally recognised' House of Representatives government. The side that was elected more recently, but whose mandate expires soon,and that Haftar is a part of and often threatens to replace with a military council. They and/or Haftar have enjoyed support from Zintan fighters, who held some strategic locations in Tripoli until they lost the airport battle.

Libya Observer, which I have only started reading very recently, appears to have its foot in the other camp. That of the GNC who were elected a lot longer ago and whose democratic mandate expired long ago, but who refused to quit and then seized Tripoli with the support of fighters under the 'Libya Shield' banner. Including lots of fighters from Misrata.

I've barely scratched the surface there but wanted to demonstrate why I'm interested in how various groups in Misrata and Zintan react to the attempt at a UN agreement. And whether Misratan forces really gave up control of some parts of Tripoli recently. And whether Zintan military council is going to back the replacement of the HoR with a more overtly military Haftar thing.

Also note that one consequence of these two english Libya news sites being oriented towards different camps is that some of the labels use differ. For example Libya Observer keeps talking about the Salvation Government, a phrase I haven't come across in Libya Herald. By the looks of it, because its the GNC's name for their government, not to be confused with the present UN attempt at creating a national unity government.

 

[elbows]

Whatever happened to Belhadj? I find myself wondering on occasion. He is the guy who was leader of one of the armed groups that managed to take Tripoli from Gaddafi, and featured prominently in video footage, arriving at Gaddafi's Tripoli base soon after it was overrun and giving an interview (no, not wearing Gaddafi's hat). Then he featured prominently in UK news because back in the Gaddafi era it seems he was rendered and tortured with British assistance. But in Libya itself, quite a few years ago now, he went from Tripoli Military commander to leader of a political party that failed to win any seats, and I stopped seeing him feature in stories from Libya at all.

Well I just tried finding news about him and I found some sites, including some of the usual suspects, claiming much earlier this year that he had gone to IS in Libya. However a lack of proper info about IS in Libya, and a tendency for these labels to be used emotively, leaves me unable to examine this properly.

But then I stumbled upon a Euronews interview with him from March. It's not terribly revealing, but it does confirm that as we would expect, he is on the GNC side and is not happy with the HoR, Haftar or the likes of the UAE. And, at least in this interview, he is in full-on politician mode.

Libya’s Abdulhakim Belhadj: ‘We are working to find a solution to end this crisis’

 

[elbows]

Hafter/Haftar again:

https://www.libyaherald.com/2015/10/18/hor-members-give-guarded-yes-to-leon-government/

A number of members of the House of Representatives, including Essa Al-Araibi and HoR spokesman Faraj Buhashim, have said that they will agree to the government leadership proposals from UN Special Envoy Bernardino Leon. However, they will not accept the removal of General Khalifa Hafter under any conditions.

https://www.libyaherald.com/2015/10...o-hor-unless-it-accepts-the-political-accord/

General Khalifah Hafter has come down against the Political Accord which he said favoured those who backed terrorism in Libya.

Though the Commander-in-Chief of the Libyan armed forces made a point of declaring his loyalty to the House of Representatives, he warned in a statement today, that his hands would “not be tied if the HoR goes too far, under Western dictation and foreign pressure on its president and other members and yields to form a government which calls itself the Accord, but in fact is biased toward the supporters of terrorism in Libya”.

He said that the army had to go after every nest of terrorism in every corner of Libya. “We will not rest until the security of our injured country is restored”.

Hafter also asserted that Russia and other friendly states have promised him “collaboration against terrorism” and help in forming a national army which would be capable of tackling the challenges and threats facing Libya.

 

[elbows]

The Misrata fighters I was interested in have come out against the UN thing.

The Central Shield Force of Libya, the biggest military force in Misrata, rejected on Saturday Leon's proposed government, describing it as a trusteeship government.

Commander of the Force Colonel Hassan Shakah confirmed in a statement that the dialogue is the only way out of the current crisis; however, the proposed unity government does not reflect the spirit of the national reconciliation necessary for the success of the political agreement.

"We support any dialogue outcomes that unite Libyans and lead to a consensus government that can preserve 17 February constants, without any foreign trusteeship." He said.

"Leon's government, which he described as consensual, is far away from consensus. It wasn't formed by consultation of Libyan people's representatives; it was dictated by foreign powers." He added.

Misrata's biggest force refuses Leon government | The Libya Observer

 

[elbows]

As if it wasn't already in enough trouble, the House of Reps seem to have rejected the UN agreement, although the wording of the article doesn't seem to mention a vote.

https://www.libyaherald.com/2015/10/19/leons-proposed-government-hits-brick-wall-with-hor/

The slow-moving nature of rejection (and in a few cases acceptance) of the UN agreement probably indicates the amount of carrot and stick being used on various parties behind the scenes, but it doesn't look like it was enough to seal this version of the deal. It would have been fascinating if some of the players, including some notable armed groups, had backed it, potentially marginalising others including Hafter. There were a few moments where there more than a few hints of this, but not many compared to the negativity shown towards the agreement from a range of important sides.

Quite aside from all the other pressures to do a deal, it sounds like Libyas economy is going to reach a very nasty point soon. For some years after Gaddafi, and despite various forms of chaos and insecurity, a lot of stuff was still operating, e.g. a reasonable chunk of the oil industry and many other aspects of normal life and economy. But some of this stuff broke down significantly in the last year or two, and the implications of that, including dwindling foreign currency reserves, are likely to be felt more acutely soon I would have thought.

Anyway the House of Representatives mandate is over now, so we might see Hafter make a move, or changes and/or awkward moments for some members of the international community that have backed this government as being the legitimate one.

 

[elbows]

The political party of the muslim brotherhood still backs the UN deal:

https://www.libyaherald.com/2015/10...-calls-on-gnc-to-back-leons-unity-government/

And apparently I wasn't completely barking up the wrong tree when I was going on about realignments in the last month or so. Unfortunately the following article is in that shit magazine that Irving Kristol (neocon daddy) created, but I am reduced to using it as a source because there are so few english-language alternatives. The title of the article points towards a typical neocon agenda involving ISIS as justification, but its the detail lurking within the article that I'm interested in. Its probably slightly out of date already but touches on many of the themes I was getting glimpses of in articles I've been quoting in recent weeks. The exception is Ibrahim Jadhrans federalists, who I have rarely if ever gone on about on u75.

ISIS Is Coming: Why Militias in Libya Need to Unite—And Fast

The proposed government can therefore be viewed as a balance between the Misratans and the wing of the Federalists who support Ibrahim Jadhran (the chief of the Petroleum Facilities Guard in Libya’s oil crescent). The Misratans represent the bulk of military power in western Libya, as well as the key militias that could tackle IS, while Jadhran’s Federalist supporters are the only force able to secure the stability of oil export revenues from the east of Libya. Both of these parties quickly announced their support for the UN proposal. The Muslim Brotherhood has also endorsed the plan, although more hesitantly.

The majority of other major local councils and militias, however, have denounced the proposal in the strongest terms. Paradoxically, the HoR, which stands to gain the most from a successful GNA, held a session on Monday, October 12 to vote on the proposed government but came to no conclusion.

Within the Tobruk faction, tensions between the HoR and they man they appointed Commander-in-Chief, General Khalifa Haftar, have approached the boiling point, due in no small part to Haftar's ever-more evident ambition to take a portion of the country by force and sideline the HoR. His actions are proving divisive and destabilising, and Haftar’s former partners are abandoning him in droves, some of them to side with their former enemies and definitively evict IS from Derna.

Meanwhile, in Western Libya, the previously Haftar-aligned Warshefana forces joined with their former opponents, the Misratan militias. This newfound alliance might lay the foundation for an anti-extremist operation to regain control of Tripoli.

These shifting alliances demonstrate that moderate Islamist and anti-Islamist brigade commanders might be considerably more willing to work together against IS than the bickering political echelon that appears unlikely to make the sacrifices necessary for building a broad enough consensus for the “unity” government.

 

[elbows]

And finally a piece in mainstream media that acknowledges the lapsed mandate of the House of Reps:

After key expiration, Libya has no Western-recognized government

But Tuesday, Libya found itself with no recognized government at all, after the mandate of one of two rival parliaments — the only one recognized by Western powers — lapsed before lawmakers could endorse a proposed unity government.

“As of today, neither of those governments can claim legal legitimacy — making Libya the largest piece of terra nullius, or vacuum of sovereignty, on earth,” said Jason Pack, a researcher of Libyan history at Cambridge University and president of Libya-Analysis.com.

If approved by both sides, León’s plan would extend the mandate of the eastern parliament, known as the House of Representatives, and create a new state council that is expected to be dominated by figures from the western legislature, the General National Congress.

Western nations have said they will not resume military or civilian aid to Libya until there is a single government.

Earlier this month, the Libyan House of Representatives voted to prolong its mandate beyond Oct. 20. So far, Western governments do not appear to back that decision as a valid extension of the chamber’s legislative authority.

“This action is not a substitute for completing the political agreement to form a government of national accord, which is essential to help Libya unify and move forward to fulfill the needs and aspirations of the Libyan people,” said Jonathan Winer, the State Department’s special envoy for Libya.

Oh no, another alternative spelling of Hafter:

In the west, the General National Congress is similarly divided over the U.N. plan. In addition to the makeup of the hoped-for interim government, Libyan politicians are most sharply at odds over the future of Khalifa Hifter, a prominent general who has won support in eastern Libya but remains vilified in the west.

 

[elbows]

Unexpected fun from the UN this week (I'm just catching up with this news from earlier in the week). Leon the outgoing envoy is exposed, an email he sent to UAE's foreign minister at the end of 2014 is bulging with embarrassing detail. And he is taking a UAE job.

The United Nations special representative in Libya spent the summer negotiating a £35,000-a-month job with a Gulf state that supports one side in the civil war he was trying to end, the Guardian can reveal.

Bernardino León, the UN peace mediator and a former Spanish foreign minister, was offered a job in June by the United Arab Emirates, the federation of seven absolute monarchies dominated by oil-rich Abu Dhabi, as director general of its “diplomatic academy”.

Analysts say Libya’s civil war has been stoked by outsiders. They say Egypt and the UAE are using the country as a battleground for a proxy war against Islamists allegedly backed by Turkey and Qatar.

The rivalry between Qatar and the UAE, which is renowned for its fierce opposition to Islamists at home and abroad, means both regularly seek to undermine and embarrass each other.

UN Libya envoy accepts £1,000-a-day job from backer of one side in civil war

The email itself is fascinating. The Guardian article quotes some of it, but here is allegedly the whole thing:

Full text of email from UN Libya envoy Bernardino Leon to UAE foreign minister

Oops!

 

[teqniq]

Leaked Emirati Emails Could Threaten Peace Talks in Libya