Balkanisation of Libya, and international impact?

[Das Uberdog]

Plenty of stuff has happened that I would normally post about but since even I get bored of talking to myself eventually, I've mostly given up.

However since Bani Walid is being shelled I thought I would make an exception.

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/africa/2012/10/2012101883633221527.html

i'm still reading it all!

 

[Delroy Booth]

Plenty of stuff has happened that I would normally post about but since even I get bored of talking to myself eventually, I've mostly given up.

However since Bani Walid is being shelled I thought I would make an exception.

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/africa/2012/10/2012101883633221527.html

http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/library/news/2012/10/mil-121017-voa01.htm

This will save you from talking to yourself. Possible US intervention in Libya? What do you reckon Elbows? It won't happen before the election, but after?

 

[elbows]

Cheers.

Well, the USA does not like to let any attack on it go unpunished. But they usually like to combine public displays of revenge with action that serves some other aim, and its really not clear if they can find the right match in Libya at the moment. I think they would already have struck if there were obvious and easy candidates and no great fears of blowback.

I expect there are many games at many levels in Libya, much of the detail of which does not get to the public or at least the english-speaking world. And there are plenty of serious problems at the moment. The attack on the US has already been used on the ground to shift the dynamic of militias in the Benghazi area, although this also showed up some of the delicate aspects of the militia situation and public feeling.

As far as I know the oil is flowing, and the exact power dynamics at play in Libya are murky. We know some of the players but the links between others are less clear, and who is really threatening who is also largely off the radar. And we've seen a country where the US government was playing down possible terrorist activities rather than playing them up (although the usual sorts of right-wingers never ceased to play up this aspect in Libya).

 

[elbows]

So they celebrated a year since Gaddafi's death with unconfirmed reports about the death of one of his sons (who has died a dozen or so times before) and the capture of Gaddafi's spokesman. And our media initially fell for the latter story, you'd think they would know better by now. Oh well its always fun to see a 'confusion over x in Libya' headline.

I also saw something on twitter regarding the death of the man who caught Saif Gaddafi. This following on from the death of someone who captured Gaddafi senior.

And then we have Bani Walid, where the fresh fighting is said to have been fierce with plenty of casualties. Now 'protesters from Bali Walid' have stormed the parliament grounds:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/oct/21/protesters-libya-parliament-bani-walid-conflict

 

[elbows]

I've no way to check this properly but may as well post it anyway.

Ismael ‏@ChangeInLibya
Libya Alhurra studios in Benghazi stormed by armed gunmen. Broadcast cut during live news segment. Blank screen on TV. - Developing #Libya


Although I have always been looking for the positive in Libya Im not afraid to address the negative, and there is plenty of that recently. It would not surprise me if these sorts of situations were actually trying to tell a larger story, one that is usually downplayed, or that something dramatic could happen as a result. This is not a prediction that something is unfolding right now, but if something happens at some point I will not be too shocked.

 

[elbows]

Well there goes Bani Walid.

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/africa/2012/10/20121024182054239663.html

Bent on making their mark on a town they say still harbours many of Gaddafi's followers, pro-government forces fired rocket-propelled grenades and anti-aircraft weapons at empty buildings.

 

[elbows]

Sounds like the government just destroyed a big chunk of its remaining credibility.

Its seems quite easy to believe that this is Misrata taking revenge on a rival location again, but this time dressed up as being 'the army'.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/mid...re-doubts-live#block-50891b14b5794584b1c13f51

The government said last night that everyone could go home [in time for Eid]. The road is packed with people trying to get back to Bani Walid but the army is turning them away.
While we were there things got very heated. The army started opening fire - the bullets seemed to be going over our heads. People were running, children were screaming. It was pandemonium and I think things are getting worse. Army checkpoints in Tripoli are insisting people [who had fled the violence in Bani Walid] can go home. Now we have thousands and thousands of people backed up along this road, very very angry that they are not being allowed back in.

 

[Delroy Booth]

Very worrying for the yanks. There's a lot of oil in Libya....

 

[elbows]

Very worrying for the yanks. There's a lot of oil in Libya....

And the fact they got it flowing again ages ago is one of the reasons I keep rejecting the notion that Libya is a completely broken mess. Some very important aspects are broken, but there must be some security on some level.

I dont know how worried the US really are because we cant really build a proper picture of power, allegiances, deals etc. Mostly all we get to hear about is when it goes wrong at a certain time & place.

 

[Delroy Booth]

And the fact they got it flowing again ages ago is one of the reasons I keep rejecting the notion that Libya is a completely broken mess. Some very important aspects are broken, but there must be some security on some level.

I dont know how worried the US really are because we cant really build a proper picture of power, allegiances, deals etc. Mostly all we get to hear about is when it goes wrong at a certain time & place.

I suspect that the US, post-election, will start deploying "advisors" (a mixture of private military contractors augmented by US troops) to areas with large oil reserves. They'll want to keep it on the quiet. But unlike Syria there's a lot of Anglo-American oil interests in LIbya and that alone makes it a likley target for US intervention.

 

[elbows]

Oops. A good while back there was some suggestion that the attack on the US in Benghazi was because they had been doing some covert stuff against a militia, and the militia decided to hit back. And now we have this as part of the CIA boss resignation mess:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/nov/12/paula-broadwell-benghazi-cia-petraeus

The CIA has dismissed as "baseless" and "uninformed" claims made by the former lover of ex-agency chief David Petraeus that Libyan militants were held in secret US prisons prior to the deadly Benghazi consulate attack.

Paula Broadwell, the biographer whose affair with Petraeus led to his abrupt resignation Friday, alleged that the assault, in which US ambassador Christopher Stevens was killed, was an attempt to free men being detained in a covert CIA annex.

 

[YouSir]

Ain't nuthin' like a CIA denial to make people automatically assume something actually happened.

 

[sunny jim]

Its just been on Channel 4 news that the recent hostage incident in the Algerian gas plant came from Jihadists in Libya and that European and US nationals have been told to leave Libya pronto as intelligence sources say a terrorist attack is imminent. A can of worms has been opened I think.

 

[Delroy Booth]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-26609025

Rebels in the east who control oil terminal apparently seized control of an oil tanker and where cruising about in the med with it. Surprised I hadn't heard of this, shows what sort of stuff is now taking place in the East of Libya. US Navy Seals retook it but still amazing it's come to that.

 

[Ibn Khaldoun]

A lot of other stuff has happened, too numerous to list. Assasinations of police, officials, teachers and so-on by militias. People want them to fuck off but the security is dire. One is important happening that wasn't posted about a few months ago was the kidnapping of Ali Zeidan - only to then be freed by another militia - in an apparent coup attempt by the Muslim Brotherhood.

Zeidan has been sacked. The new newcaretaker is PM Abdullah Thinni. Not sure what he can do and the rest of the new representatives. They are managing to stall the fiscal crisis which needs to be resolved politically by the weak central authority.

Voter participation in the constitutional elections was low.

The best news was Libya winning the African Championship in February.

If Libya gets out of the impasse things could be very good. Wages are still rising. People need security and public services to be able to function properly again, then there can be a flourishing democracy. Millions of people, including women and very young people, are now activists.

 

[Ibn Khaldoun]

Forgot to mention General Haftar. He tried to announce a coup by the military. It was a total failure. It also highlighted another difference between Libya and Egypt, namely the old Mamluk system; Libya's military, historically, has never been equivalent in that respect and cannot play the same role.

 

[elbows]

As usual in Libya, information regarding the fall-out from the Hafter thing is murky, full of counter-claims.

Reports that the Air Force Chief of Staff, Brigadier General Ahmed Habib Al-Mismari, has been dismissed from his post are untrue, he insists. Speaking to the Libya Herald today, Mismari also denied social media reports that Benghazi’s Benina Airbase was now under the control of the controversial Major General Khalifa Hafter. Saad Al-Warfali remained the base commander, he said.

Mismari did admit, nonetheless, that he and Warfali were under investigation by the military prosecutor for giving information to the media and meeting with Hafter The investigation had been requested by the Chief of Staff, Major General Jadallah Al-Obeidi.

Hafter, who remains a top army officer, has called for the removal of the General National Congress and the government and their replacement by a military council and went as far as announcing on TV on 14 February that it was going to happen. Although the government then ordered his arrest, it did not happen and he has since been campaigning in favour of his so-called “initiative”, mainly in the east of the country where there is substantial disillusionment with what is seen as a Tripoli-centric government.

He was at Benina Airbase with Mismari and Warfali on Monday to meet with a number of officers about the so-called initiative. A statement afterwards said that those there had approved Hafter’s 14 February initiative, that the armed forces had to be rebuilt, and that Hafter must be appointed Chief of Staff.

http://www.libyaherald.com/2014/03/19/air-force-chief-says-his-is-still-in-post/#ixzz2wXHWjxuH

I will have to study Hafter a little more when I find some time, especially considering what the very brief wikipedia entry says about him. Specifically:

Formerly one of Muammar Gaddafi's army commanders in the Chadian–Libyan conflict, he fell out with the regime when Libya lost the war, and sought exile in the United States. Some sources have reported ties with the US Central Intelligence Agency.[1] After falling out with the Gaddafi regime, Haftar set up his own militia financed by the CIA, according to the 2001 book Manipulations africaines, published by Le Monde diplomatique.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Khalifa_Belqasim_Haftar

 

[Casually Red]

as a secondary impact, the fall of Gadaffi seems to have also heralded the destruction of the last remnants of organised, anti-Imperialist pan-Africanism. looking at the issue of Africa and independent African development in the future, what hopes are there for independent, progressive and secular political movements to emerge from the current messy mash of backwards-looking Islamist and tribal leaderships? was it worth supporting the fall of Gadaffi for the state that Libya exists in now, as did many on the left in the West?
.

in my view this perfectly forseeable outcome is precisely why Libya was targetted for destruction. And furthermore any such movement arising again in Libya will see itself attacked firstly by the islamists and war lords, and if they cant take them out then the drones and jets will do it again . Western imperialism can never countenance the existence of such a movement in Libya as it will be an implacable opponent of them facing an existential threat, and will conduct Libyan affairs on that basis.

As regards the west european left their ignominious open support for Libyas destruction will be mocked by history. Their redundance and open treachery has never been more keenly ilustrated . That this has been compounded in their equal keenneess to support the destruction of Syria ,despite equally forseable disastrous consequences shows this isnt simply an error but the result of something much more deeply embedded and troubling.

 

[Ibn Khaldoun]

As usual in Libya, information regarding the fall-out from the Hafter thing is murky, full of counter-claims.



Hafter, who remains a top army officer, has called for the removal of the General National Congress and the government and their replacement by a military council and went as far as announcing on TV on 14 February that it was going to happen. Although the government then ordered his arrest, it did not happen and he has since been campaigning in favour of his so-called “initiative”, mainly in the east of the country where there is substantial disillusionment with what is seen as a [Tripoli-centric government]

There is a strong argument for federalism. It is widely misunderstood and treated with suspicion. However, perhaps the argument should be articulated more in terms of local democracy within a strong constitutional framework. Still, the general impasse poses against its own solution. The center probably needs to be powerful enough to enact devolution.

That, or something deeper has to take root.

 

[elbows]

The Guardian made the mistake at the end of last week of sounding vaguely confident that something people said in Libya was actually going to happen, and on schedule:

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/mar/28/libya-poised-retake-oil-ports-rebels-split-country

Libyan government forces are poised to attack rebels blockading key oil ports this weekend in an offensive that risks splitting the country apart.

A deadline for rebels in the eastern province of Cyrenaica to hand over the ports, blockaded since last summer, has passed with the opposition still in control and vowing to form a breakaway state if attacked.

Rebel militias are dug in along Red Wadi, a valley preventing access along Libya's coastal highway to three blockaded ports. "The deadline is already over," said Osama Buera, a spokesman for the rebel Cyrenaica Political Bureau. "The central authorities in Tripoli are in a weak position. We still encourage a serious dialogue, otherwise we will just break away declaring the independence of new Cyrenaica."

It didn't happen, and now we have reports of a deal. Not that I would place much weight on that either until such a time as it actually comes true.

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/afric...end-oil-port-blockade-201441231453120643.html

The leader of a rebel group in eastern Libya has agreed to end its seizure of several oil-exporting ports within days, raising hopes of ending an eight-month stalemate with the government in Tripoli, according to reports.

The group's leader Ibrahim Jathran told a rebel television channel his group had reached a solution benefiting "all honourable Libyans" and the people of Cyrenaica, the east's historic name.

"This agreement will upset all those who don't want the good for Libya and its people but it will make happy all national thinking Libyans. That's important for us. That's what we strive for," Jathran said.

Abb-Rabbo al-Barassi, self-declared prime minister of the rebel group, told the Reuters news agency: "The oil port issue will be solved within days. We agreed on all issues with the government in Tripoli."

A government delegation is expected to visit the group's home base of Ajdabiya in eastern Libya within two days to hammer out the details, al-Barassi said.

 

[elbows]

Forgot to mention General Haftar. He tried to announce a coup by the military. It was a total failure. It also highlighted another difference between Libya and Egypt, namely the old Mamluk system; Libya's military, historically, has never been equivalent in that respect and cannot play the same role.

It seems Hiftar/Haftar has gone on the attack in Benghazi, and has managed to muster support that includes at least some sections of the air force.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/may/16/heavy-fighting-libya-troops-storm-militias-benghazi

Air strikes pounded militia bases at dawn and 6,000 troops converged on the city, storming a series of bases and checkpoints.

Eyewitnesses described a city in chaos, with jets streaking low over rooftops, tanks on the streets, heavy detonations and aggressive fighting.

"The fighting is close to my house," said one resident in the Hawari district. "Planes are going very low, there are explosions, there is fighting around the February 17 [militia] base."

Hiftar, who called on the army earlier this year to mount a coup against the government, appears to have the support of a significant proportion of Libya's armed forces. He insisted the operation was sanctioned by army commanders, saying: "All reserve forces are mobilised. If we fail today, the terrorists win."

But Libya's government insisted the operation had no official sanction, with the chief of the general staff, Abdul Salam Jadallah, branding Hiftar a criminal and ordering Benghazi's militias to fight back.

Air force planes struck the bases of the Rafalla al-Sahati and Ansar al-Sharia militias, the latter blamed by Washington for the attack two years ago on the US consulate that led to the death of ambassador Chris Stevens.

We probably need more context on this, since the 'central government paralysis' has deepened further this year. I didn't post about it because its so hard to maintain a conversation about Libya here these days, but not only did one leader get sacked over the rebel oil tanker affair, but he successor lasted very little time before stating he would not form a government because of an attack on his home. And then there were great problems getting the chamber formerly known as the GNC (whose remit expired a while back) to agree on a replacement.

With my limited knowledge of the repent situation, this certainly seems like an opportune moment for a would-be strongman to play more of their cards, even if he received little visible support months ago.

 

[elbows]

A few more details and hints at some possibilities:

http://www.libyaherald.com/2014/05/16/hafter-launches-benghazi-attack-on-islamists/#axzz31tgl4czF

The action appears to have taken the government by surprise. At a press conference this afternoon, acting Prime Minister Abdullah Al-Thinni who earlier this month called Ansar Al-Sharia aterroristorganisation, insisted that Hafter’s action was illegal and undermined attempts to confront terrorism.

TheChief of Staff, Major General Abdussalam Jadallah Al-Obeidi, has vehemently condemned the attack, calling Hafter’s forces “intruders into Benghazi” and urging “revolutionaries” in the city to resist them.

The assault, codenamed “Libya’s Dignity” by Hafter, is seen as a bid by him to boost his political standing. In February, he provoked bewilderment when he went on TV toannouncethat he intended to take over power in the country.

A source close to his forces today said that the aim of the operation was to “target and cleanse Benghazi of extremist groups”.

Although some air force members and marines are involved, both of which have close links to the Saiqa Special Forces Brigade, it is said not to be involved, neither is the Benghazi Joint Security Room.

The operation follows last Friday night’s killing of protestors outside the 17 February Brigade headquarters in Benghazi, after which the brigade was ordered by General Staff to quit the premises. There were then negotiations, but it reportedly refused to do so.

The operation also follows unconfirmed reports that the Chief of Staff, Major General Abdussalam Jadallah Al-Obeidi, was about to dismiss some 400 officers in the east of the country.

Although the BJSR is not involved, its former spokesman Colonel Mohammad Hijazi spoke of Libyan military forces being locked in battle with “terrorist formations” in the districts of Sidi Ferej and Hawari and stated that Libyan “army forces” were now in control of a camp at Rafallah Al-Sahati.

An eyes witness told the Libya Herald that tanks belonging to Saiqa had been stationed on the road in front of its camp at Buatni.

I would suggest that as usual in Libya, real alliances are hard to determine by word and denials alone, and details of deeds that would be a better indicator usually remain murky, at least in most English-language stories. And there is still no evidence that any one group is strong enough to get beyond the current situation and quench someones thirst for power. Completely unclear whether any of the apparent alliances that have formed for this attack on a couple of specific groups in Benghazi will work together on other fronts.

 

[elbows]

Yesterday his forces 'strategically' withdrew from Benghazi for a while, and the government attempted to declare a no-fly zone in Benghazi.

Today I see we have this breaking new on the BBC:

Heavy gunfire and clashes reported in south of the Libyan capital, Tripoli, outside the country's interim parliament

More to follow.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-27462921

 

[elbows]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world...0a5ec6-de67-11e3-9442-54189bf1a809_story.html

Forces loyal to a rogue Libyan general attacked the country’s parliament Sunday, forcing lawmakers to flee an assault his spokesman said targeted Islamists there who protect the extremist militias now plaguing the nation.

Al-Hegazi called the parliament the “heart of the crisis” in Libya.

“This parliament is what supports these extremist Islamist entities,” al-Hegazi told the station. “The aim was to arrest these Islamist bodies who wear the cloak of politics.”

 

[elbows]

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/afric...join-renegade-general-201452055015140299.html

An elite Libyan unit has joined a renegade general who accuses the government of backing al-Qaeda-inspired fighters as rising lawlessness in the nation's two largest cities edges it closer to civil war.

Colonel Wanis Abu Khamada, the commander of the country's special forces, announced on Monday that his troops would join retired general Khalifa Haftar's operation targeting armed groups in Benghazi, the country's second city.

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middl...nder-joins-rebel-forces-2014521923299411.html

The top commander of Libya's air force has joined the ranks of renegade general Khalifa Qassim Haftar, backing his "Dignity Operation" that targets religious hardliners, and adding to divisions in a country still reeling from political unrest since the 2011 revolt.

The official Libyan news agency said on Wednesday that the Interior Ministry has also announced its support for Haftar's offensive, which the government has described as a coup attempt.

Late on Tuesday, the non-hardline politicians and voting bloc called the National Forces Alliance issued a statement apparently supporting Hafter, saying Libyans have found themselves "drowning in swamp of terrorism, darkness, killing and destruction".

On Tuesday, Libya's election commission announced parliamentary elections would be held June 25, a top demand among most Libyans.

In a bid to defuse the crisis, the Libyan cabinet has proposed the suspension of the parliament until fresh elections are held.

 

[elbows]

The BBC did a bio on Haftar the other day, and didn't shy away from mentioning the Chad war and CIA stuff.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-27492354

Also yesterday he called for a 'civilian presidential high council' and fresh elections, but I've not heard much since then, no idea how this statement went down with various groups.

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middl...eeks-emergency-cabinet-20145226426211599.html

 

[elbows]

Despite my inability to get a renewed conversation about Libya going here, I should post again now. Because in the aftermath of the ouster of Gaddafi, I rejected the idea that Libya was a failed state, or suffering from a proper civil war. As a result of events of recent weeks I can no longer reject such descriptions, at least not in the full on manner that I did previously.

I suppose the most immediate fear right now, besides various embassies closing and foreign nationals being told to leave, is the prospect of the huge fuel storage site in Tripoli exploding. It sounds like its already been on fire twice:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-28521551

 

[elbows]

Well its not getting any better, and the British embassy is shutting, with British nationals told to leave.

One of the reasons I previously hesitated to describe Libya in the most broken terms, was that many fronts of 'normal life' continued in Tripoli on all but a few occasions. It doesn't sound like this is the case anymore, not just because of the deteriorated peace and security, but because petrol has been in short supply for a while it seems:

http://www.libyaherald.com/2014/08/...nst-militias-and-for-the-state/#axzz39Gqv947f

Despite social media attempts to galvanise support for a large demonstration in Tripoli’s Martyrs’ Square yesterday and today, following on from those that had started earlier in Benghazi, the effort failed to precipitate into a massive show although by later evening more people had turned up.

The demonstrators were demanding that all militias leave Tripoli and end the fighting and called for a strong state with a regular police and army.

Numerous promises by Tripoli Municipal Council to provide security for petrol stations in order to open up and distribute petrol that is apparently available have failed to materialise. The four petrol stations nearest to the Libya Herald offices, for example, have been closed for the best part of a month. Two have disconnected their hoses and petrol guns and one has completely disassembled its petrol pumps as well as built a one metre high wall to block its entrance.

The shortage of petrol has made Tripoli into something of a ghost town. For example, there was not a fish to be bought early this morning at the fish market. On a Friday morning, the market is usually heaving with buyers with long waiting times at the fish cleaners.

The abnormally empty streets have created an eerie atmosphere which has further discouraged many from venturing out. There is also the perception that there is a security vacuum, and that venturing out might increase the risk of robbery or car-jacking.

In reality that is still only a perception in central and residential areas. There has not been a total breakdown of law and order in most central districts. The areas perceived to be unsafe are the areas linked with the presence of the two blocs of militias such as Airport Road, Hay Akwakh (metal bridge), some areas of Seraj, some areas of Janzur, Swani Road, Kremia and Wadi Rabea.

 

[Plumdaff]

I wish I had something to contribute, but thank you elbows for valuable information, even if the news is bad.

 

[elbows]

As for Haftar's lot fighting the islamist militias in Benghazi, they had quite a setback the other day:

A coalition of armed groups has overrun a major Libyan army base held by allies of a renegade general in the eastern city of Benghazi.

Special forces troops of the Saiqa brigade, loyal to Khalifa Haftar, abandoned their base in southeast Benghazi on Tuesday after coming under attack, military officials and residents said.

"We have withdrawn from the army base after heavy shelling," Saiqa official Fadel al-Hassi told Reuters news agency.

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middl...-special-forces-base-2014729141712806370.html