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...and Yemen!

The West is sleepwalking into an economic catastrophe in the Red Sea
Yes the Telegraph. 21 December 2023
Surely though, this time policymakers will get it right. Fool me once, shame on me; fool me twice, shame on you, after all. But heads appear to remain buried, and sand abundant. Markets remain sanguine. Since the blockade was enacted, the oil price has barely moved, and the FTSE has rallied.

What is going on? In a word: confusion. Foreign policy experts in Washington – and London – are becoming ever more aware that the world is changing rapidly, but they are not sure what to do about it. It is no secret that the Biden administration is flummoxed by the current crisis in the Middle East.
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Former alliances, like the important Saudi-American relationship, are breaking down. Now, critics who have raised the issue of naval vulnerability to new drone and missile technologies are having their theories tested in real time.

The Western world is in a daze. If we do not come to terms with the new realities, however, it will only result in further mismanagement. Until now prophets of radical geopolitical change have been dismissed as pessimists and Cassandras. But when things get bad pessimists get the upper hand, and it barely needs be said that Cassandra was ultimately proved right.
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Economists have little to offer in the way of solutions to the current crisis in the Middle East. It is enormously complex and difficult. But perhaps we can provide a dose of reality. Unless Israel calls off its military operation in Gaza, the crisis will continue to unfold. This seems unlikely.

Earlier this week, the Pentagon announced the commencement of Operation Prosperity Guardian. The plan seems to be that a combined naval force will unbung the bunged up Red Sea. But ultimately this will mean a conflict with the Houthis. Even in an optimistic scenario, such a conflict would take a long time.
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The new developments in weapons technology suggest that this will be a costly proposition. Politico has highlighted that the Pentagon is worried about cost differentials as $2m missiles are being fired to take down $2,000 drones. “That quickly becomes a problem because the most benefit is in their favour,” one expert told the publication.

Production times on the $2,000 drones is also far shorter than on $2m missiles, so the Houthis will have a logistics advantage.
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"Former alliances, like the important Saudi-American relationship, are breaking down. Now, critics who have raised the issue of naval vulnerability to new drone and missile technologies are having their theories tested in real time."
Can the Houthis sink warships with swarms of $2,000 drones?

Houthi Rebel Missiles in the Red Sea Have a Link to China
Dec 20, 2023

And a propaganda piece from Newsweek.
 
Crazy. I remember when the houthies were an obscure mountain tribe Saleh had a bit of beef with....barely consisting of a couple of thousand people.....
 
War on Gaza: Why the oil market isn't freaking out about Houthi Red Sea attacks
The Houthis have refrained from targeting vessels carrying Saudi, Russian and Qatari energy, potentially keeping oil markets subdued
middleeasteye 20 December 2023
Still, industry insiders and western officials say the Houthis have shown a sophisticated ability to pinpoint their strikes.

“The Houthis have been tremendously precise in not hitting non-western oil tankers,” Katona, at Kpler, told MEE. “There are a lot of Saudi, Iraqi and Russian tankers in the Red Sea and the Houthis haven’t hit a single one.”
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The Red Sea has seen a spike in vessels transporting LNG from Qatar to Europe as a result of the invasion of Ukraine, but few expect the Houthis to strike those vessels given Doha’s cordial relations with Iran.

The Houthis have also refrained from hitting Saudi or Emirati oil infrastructure. In their note, analysts at Goldman Sachs said the limited risk to production so far was another factor keeping a lid on prices.
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Houthis say they carried out drone attack on Israeli port of Eilat
aljazeera.com 26 Dec 2023
Yemen’s Houthi rebel group has said that it carried out drone attacks targeting the Israeli port city of Eilat, as well as a commercial vessel in the Red Sea, as the Iran-backed group steps up attacks that it says are a means of pressuring Israel to end its war in Gaza.
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Speaking on Tuesday, Houthi military spokesman Yahya Sarea said the group conducted drone attacks on Eilat and “other areas in occupied Palestine”. Sarea said the group also launched missiles at an MSC United vessel in the Red Sea after it rejected three warning calls.
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Houthis and Saudis Commit to New Ceasefire and Roadmap for Peace
antiwar. December 26, 2023
The Guardian first reported the existence of a Yemen peace deal and said the US was threatening to kill it over Houthi attacks on Israeli-linked commercial shipping in the Red Sea, which have come in response to the Israeli onslaught on Gaza. The US could scuttle the agreement by redesignating the Houthis as a “foreign terrorist organization,” which would make the payment of civil workers and easing of the blockade impossible.
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For their part, the Saudis appear determined to follow through on the peace deal, as Riyadh has been urging the US not to strike the Houthis directly in response to the Red Sea attacks. The US launched a naval task force and official military operation in the Red Sea and has intercepted Houthi drones and missiles but has so far not bombed targets in Yemen.
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The war in Yemen has killed at least 377,000 people since 2015, when Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and other Gulf nations intervened to fight the Houthis with full support from the US. More than half of those killed in the war died due to starvation and disease caused by the US-backed coalition’s brutal bombing campaign and blockade on Yemen.
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Dodgy source The National Interest, interesting nevertheless

The Shrinking Cost of War Threatens Western Militaries
December 26, 2023
Houthi attacks in the Red Sea show how easy it is for armed groups to take advantage of cheap but sophisticated technology and undermine American military power.
The aggressive commodification of the modern battlefield really started to be driven home in recent days when the Houthi rebels in Yemen managed to impose an effective naval blockade in the Red Sea—all without possessing a navy. Throughout human history, the capacity to control the seas—and hence, to control commerce—was only available to wealthy countries that could allocate a substantial amount of their national income to build a serious navy. But the commodification of the modern battlefield has changed this dynamic.
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The key moment in the blockade of the Red Sea was the successful targeting of a commercial ship with an Iranian anti-shipping missile. Information on the specific model of the missile is scant, but there is no doubt that the missile costs substantially less than the air defense missiles used by Western naval vessels to counteract them. Indeed, reports have already highlighted that the U.S. Navy is using $2 million missiles to shoot down Houthi drones that cost a mere $2,000.
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The nature of this new weaponry also raises more fundamental problems. When the blockade was enacted, there were calls for the U.S. Navy and its allies to bomb the Houthis into submission. But what exactly would they bomb? Presumably, these new missiles and drones can be transported anywhere in the Houthi’s territory, set up, and fired—possibly even remotely. By the time the U.S. Navy gets a target, it might just be a cheap launcher or, at best, an empty truck.
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teqniq said:
Well this is upping the ante:

UK preparing for attacks on Houthi rebels with US
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Tom Sharpe, a former Royal Navy commander, said if the Houthis wanted to they could hit “masses of ships” in the Red Sea, and the US-led force that has already been sent would need to be far larger to ensure commercial vessels passing through are protected. “Even then, it wouldn’t be guaranteed. If they went for it, we’d be overwhelmed,” he said.

However, Sharpe said it was not in the Houthi’s interest to provoke a fight back from the US. “It is much better to keep it sub-threshold and slowly drain our resources,” he said.
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As it says in the National Interest article,
But what exactly would they bomb? Presumably, these new missiles and drones can be transported anywhere in the Houthi’s territory, set up, and fired—possibly even remotely. By the time the U.S. Navy gets a target, it might just be a cheap launcher or, at best, an empty truck.
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It's a trap
 
yield said:
Dodgy source The National Interest, interesting nevertheless

The Shrinking Cost of War Threatens Western Militaries
December 26, 2023
Houthi attacks in the Red Sea show how easy it is for armed groups to take advantage of cheap but sophisticated technology and undermine American military power.
Click to expand...

TBF the point about "not having a navy" and yet being able to "control the seas" is nonsensical. They occupy one side of a narrow strait; if they wanted to they could use very cheap conventional artillery to block it.
 
Eisenhower going home (or so they say) makes me wonder if the US is trying to avoid the embarrassment of a multi billion dollar carrier group with its air superiority fighters being unable to prevent 2000 dollar drones flying round and possibly one even hitting the carrier deck
The remaining assets are probably more useful right now. Not that I believe that the Eisenhower is actually going all the way home
Oh and an Iranian Warship just turned up.
I don't know whats going but do I fuck believe the narrative that its just about defending Israel?
 
It was reported recently by various media outlets that the US Navy sunk three Houthi rebel boats in the Red Sea, killing ten of the Houthi rebels. This was after the rebels tried to board a Danish merchant ship. But ofcourse the actions of the Houthi rebels are in response to the genocide going on in Gaza. Things seem to be escalating.

www.politico.eu

US Navy sinks Houthi rebel boats after Red Sea attack on container ship

The incident was the second attack against the vessel in just 24 hours.
www.politico.eu www.politico.eu
 
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teqniq said:
Houthis don't seem to take much heed of 'final warning':

apnews.com

Houthis launch sea drone to attack ships hours after US, allies issue final warning

An armed unmanned surface vessel launched from Houthi-controlled Yemen got within a “couple of miles” of U.S.
apnews.com apnews.com
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He said the United States isn’t seeking a confrontation with Iran, but Tehran has a choice.

“It can continue its current course,” Lu said, “or it can withhold its support without which the Houthis would struggle to effectively track and strike commercial vessels navigating shipping lanes through the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden.”

This raises questions as to whether any action against the Houthis would also address Iran’s role in any way, which could risk widening the conflict.
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No mention in the article that the Houthis are being selective in their targets.
A statement Wednesday signed by the United States, Australia, Bahrain, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Germany, Italy, Japan, Netherlands, New Zealand, Singapore and the United Kingdom gave the Houthis what a senior Biden administration official described as a final warning.
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Lots of NATO countries missing from that statement?

Hit the Houthis — and Iran — Where It Counts
Opinion. James Stavridis, former supreme allied commander of NATO, https://archive.is/flPp5
Guarding Red Sea traffic isn’t doing the job, so the US must plan for military strikes on land.
3 January 2024
Third, if the Houthis do not cease their operations after proportional attacks against their maritime assets, we may need to up the ante by striking more broadly at their military capability. In their civil war, they have built up considerable combat power to use against the government of Yemen and its Saudi and Emirati allies. Thus there are plenty of ripe Houthi military targets ashore: fuel and ammunition depots, ground-assault vehicles, training facilities, command-and-control nodes. Striking them would do real damage to Houthi efforts to overthrow the Yemeni government. This would likely be done with ship-fired Tomahawk cruise missiles, which have a range of 1,500 miles and pinpoint accuracy.
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"By the time the U.S. Navy gets a target, it might just be a cheap launcher or, at best, an empty truck."
A fourth, and highly controversial, level of escalation would be to attack Iranian assets directly. This would need to be done with careful justification based on hard, provable intelligence of links between Tehran and the Houthis. Open-source reporting suggests that is eminently available.

Before striking Iranian targets, the US and its partners would need to publicly and privately inform the Iranians that the cease-and-desist order to the Houthis applies to their military support as well — and that unless the attacks stop, significant strikes would be forthcoming.
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Maybe a need for a "Red Sea Crisis" thread?
 
yield said:
No mention in the article that the Houthis are being selective in their targets.

Lots of NATO countries missing from that statement?

Hit the Houthis — and Iran — Where It Counts
Opinion. James Stavridis, former supreme allied commander of NATO, https://archive.is/flPp5
Guarding Red Sea traffic isn’t doing the job, so the US must plan for military strikes on land.
3 January 2024

"By the time the U.S. Navy gets a target, it might just be a cheap launcher or, at best, an empty truck."

Maybe a need for a "Red Sea Crisis" thread?
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It could be the inaugural thread in the ww3 forum that we need
 
Pickman's model said:
It could be the inaugural thread in the ww3 forum that we need
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The unwelcome resurgence of war
FT. 27 Dec 2023
The anecdotal evidence that war is surging round the world is confirmed by the numbers. A recent report by the International Institute for Strategic Studies documented 183 ongoing conflicts around the world, the highest number in more than three decades. And that figure was arrived at before the outbreak of the war in Gaza.
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yield said:
The unwelcome resurgence of war
FT. 27 Dec 2023
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yeh but it's not a ww if you don't have the big players involved, and one by one things are falling into place for the general war i have long anticipated

we're not far off my prediction - then tongue in cheek - of august 21 this year
www.urban75.net

Russia prepares for nuclear war with mass evacuation exercise

Somewhat concerning. Russia warns nuclear war with West is imminent The Russian government has launched a nationwide civil defence training exercise to ensure the country is properly prepared in the event of a nuclear, chemical and biological attack from the West. Amid growing international...
www.urban75.net www.urban75.net
 
USA just sabre rattling. They’ve just withdrawn one of their two Aircraft Carriers the USS Gerald Ford which was recently said to be seriously understaffed.
Aircraft Carriers are militarily useless in these conditions. They are a very large slow moving boat full of ammunition and fuel.
One well aimed Houthi missile would at best cripple one if not sink it.
 
Pickman's model said:
yeh but it's not a ww if you don't have the big players involved, and one by one things are falling into place for the general war i have long anticipated

we're not far off my prediction - then tongue in cheek - of august 21 this year
www.urban75.net

Russia prepares for nuclear war with mass evacuation exercise

Somewhat concerning. Russia warns nuclear war with West is imminent The Russian government has launched a nationwide civil defence training exercise to ensure the country is properly prepared in the event of a nuclear, chemical and biological attack from the West. Amid growing international...
www.urban75.net www.urban75.net
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True but the start date of WW2 was different depending on whether you were in Czechoslovakia or China.
manji said:
USA just sabre rattling. They’ve just withdrawn one of their two Aircraft Carriers the USS Gerald Ford which was recently said to be seriously understaffed.
Aircraft Carriers are militarily useless in these conditions. They are a very large slow moving boat full of ammunition and fuel.
One well aimed Houthi missile would at best cripple one if not sink it.
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Hope you're right that it's just sabre rattling. The USA don't need the aircraft carriers, looks like they're using the UK base in Cyprus.
 
India providing security escort for container ships around Red Sea-govt source
January 5, 2024 https://archive.is/uqFuZ
Ships have been avoiding the Red Sea after the Houthi militant group stepped up maritime attacks against commercial vessels, which it said was a response to Israel's military campaign in the Gaza Strip.
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"Many consignments are being escorted with security in high seas with help from Ministry of Defence," the source, who has direct knowledge of the matter said on Friday.
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The Indian Navy said earlier this week that task groups of frigates and destroyers had been deployed in the central and northern Arabian Sea to assist merchant vessels passing through the region.
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India Navy rescues bulk carrier crew after Arabian Sea hijack attempt
January 5, 2024 https://archive.is/jWrUn
The hijacking and attempted hijacking of commercial ships in the Gulf of Aden and Arabian Sea resumed in December after a six-year lull. Experts believe pirates have been encouraged by U.S.-led anti-piracy naval forces diverting their attention to the neighbouring Red Sea to thwart attacks there by Houthi rebels.
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US and UK hint at military action after largest Houthi attack in Red Sea
10/01/24
The US military said Iranian-designed one-way attack drones, anti-ship cruise missiles and anti-ship ballistic missiles were launched from Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen at around 21:15 local time (18:15 GMT).
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Eighteen drones, two cruise missiles and one ballistic missile were shot down by F/A-18 warplanes from the aircraft carrier USS Dwight D Eisenhower, which is deployed in the Red Sea, and by four destroyers, the USS Gravely, USS Laboon, USS Mason and HMS Diamond.
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HMS Diamond shot down seven of the Houthi drones using its guns and Sea Viper missiles, each costing more than £1m ($1.3m), a defence source said.
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No injuries or damage were reported.
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tim said:
Cabinet meeting on possible action with g Starmer and the Speaker being briefed. So, we're off to join the Saudis in their murderous war


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Fucking hell. Yemen's suffered so much.
agricola said:
The Saudis have already mostly stopped fighting, so in addition to being recklessly stupid this is also very poorly timed.
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What are the US/UK forces going to target? As it says in the National Interest article,

But what exactly would they bomb? Presumably, these new missiles and drones can be transported anywhere in the Houthi’s territory, set up, and fired—possibly even remotely. By the time the U.S. Navy gets a target, it might just be a cheap launcher or, at best, an empty truck.
Click to expand...
 
Hang on, we're bombing another country without anybody telling Parliament? Are we declaring war? What the fucks going on?

 
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