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Yet the Trump administration’s apparent decision to pursue a
military-only solution without considering the strategic or humanitarian ramifications will make peace harder to attain. The Pentagon, along with Saudi, Emirati, and Yemeni government officials have been trying to
sell the idea of a “clean,” four- to six-week assault on the vital port of Hudaydah that will, they say, reopen humanitarian supply routes and force their adversaries to negotiate. In reality, the offensive is no more likely to shift control of the port, which has been in Houthi hands since before the 2014 coup, than a similar attempt last year. Moreover, a new attack on the port, on which the majority of Yemeni civilians now depend and through which most humanitarian aid flows, will likely
precipitate famine. And despite the Pentagon’s
claims that increasing U.S. military pressure on the Houthis in Hudaydah will bring them to the peace table and weaken Iranian influence in the country, the offensive will most likely have the
opposite effect: it will give Tehran a long-sought pretext to escalate support to the Houthis, and legitimize the rebels’ claim to be defending Yemen from external aggression.
In effect, the conflict has been transformed into yet another proxy fight between Saudi Arabia and Iran, with all of the sectarian undertones and animosities that accompany that rivalry. Any grand notions of “good guys” and “bad guys” in the war evaporated long ago; the Saudi-led coalition, the Houthis, and pro-government forces have all broken the laws of war and committed violations of humanitarian law with such frequency that one wonders how the United Nations and human rights organizations can keep track. No civilian target has been off-limits; Saudi warplanes have bombed schools,
hospitals, medical clinics, weddings, funerals, and even refugee camps. Meanwhile, the Houthi rebels have shelled civilian areas, used
banned antipersonnel mines in at least six governorates, blocked and looted humanitarian convoys, and sent increasing numbers of
child soldiers to the front lines.
U.S. policy in Yemen has made things worse. Despite Washington’s
rhetorical support for a political resolution, the U.S. has
literally fueled the Saudi bombing campaign for more than two years. And billions of dollars in defense sales to the Saudis and Emiratis have enabled some of the conflict’s worst humanitarian abuses.
As long as the U.S. plays arsonist one night and firefighter the next, the war in Yemen will continue and the parties to the conflict will have no incentives to engage in an inclusive peace process. That means thousands more civilians will die in ground fighting and air strikes, the recent cholera outbreak will spiral out of control as Yemen’s already meager health infrastructure shrivels even further, and terrorist groups like al-Qaeda will remain free to
capitalize on the violence.
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