...and Yemen!

[CrabbedOne]

...
The Saudi coalition’s continued war on Sanaa, the frequent failures of UN-led peace negotiations, and the involvement of Western states in the bombardment of the country increasingly isolate the Houthi-Saleh alliance from the West. While Sanaa was in early 2015 not part of a regional Iranian axis, Saleh and Houthi supporters have increasingly portrayed themselves as supporters of Iranian allies Bashar al-Assad and Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah—and Saleh has even offered to cooperate with Russia in fighting terrorism. Because support from the West is so unlikely, the Houthi-Saleh alliance is also looking to Iran to receive the kind of assistance it gives to other actors—namely Hezbollah and the Assad regime. But for now, Yemen is not a priority on Iran’s foreign policy agenda, and what the Iranians do provide has not bought the Houthis’ unconditional loyalty. But as the United States increases its involvement in Yemen and the White House inflames its rhetoric against Iran, Yemen may develop into a battleground for the escalating tension between Washington and Tehran and push the Houthis into Iran’s corner.

A fair minded summary of known Iranian/HA involvement in Yemen.

 

[CrabbedOne]

On AP Pro-government tribal leader among dead in US raid in Yemen

Not getting any better.

 

[CrabbedOne]

...
The air campaign waged by the coalition led by Saudi Arabia, while devastating to Yemeni infrastructure and civilians, has failed to dent the political will of the Houthi-Saleh alliance to continue the conflict. Maritime attacks in the Red Sea in late 2016 have increased the risk of the conflict spreading regionally. The HouthiSaleh alliance has demonstrated that it has an effective anti-ship capability, with one successful attack against a United Arab Emirates naval ship, and other attacks eliciting a cruise missile response by the United States Navy against Houthi land radar stations. There has also been a failed improvised explosive device attack by an as yet unidentified party against a large liquid nitrogen gas tanker heading north through the Bab al-Mandab strait.
...

My bold, my that would have made a big bang if successful.

...
Probability of large-scale supply of weapons from the Islamic Republic of Iran to Yemen

61. In a letter addressed to the President of the Security Council dated 14 September (S/2016/786), Saudi Arabia alleged violations of resolution 2216 (2015) by the Islamic Republic of Iran and demanded that the Council take the appropriate and the necessary measures against those who had violated the relevant resolutions. The Permanent Representative of the Islamic Republic of Iran rejected the allegations as “pure fabrications and unsubstantiated” in a response dated 27 September (S/2016/817). A further response was made by the United Arab Emirates, also on behalf of Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the Sudan and Yemen, in a note verbale dated 27 October addressed to the Secretary-General (A/71/581), requesting that the annex thereto, containing alleged violations by the Islamic Republic of Iran, be circulated to the General Assembly. The allegations were again firmly rejected as being “baseless” in a response dated 16 November by the Permanent Representative of the Islamic Republic of Iran (A/71/617).

62. The Panel has not seen sufficient evidence to confirm any direct large -scale supply of arms from the Government of the Islamic Republic of Iran, although there are indicators that anti-tank guided weapons being supplied to the Houthi or Saleh forces are of Iranian manufacture. The air supremacy of the coalition led by Saudi Arabia over Yemen and the effectiveness of the maritime inspection system means that there are now only three credible direct supply routes from the Islamic Republic of Iran to Yemen for small-scale trafficking.
...

 

[CrabbedOne]

...
The unmanned boat was likely supplied by Iran, Donegan said.

“I don’t know that it’s Iranian-built, but I believe that it’s production in some way was supported by Iran,” Donegan said.

“Here’s how I connect those dots. About a year ago we began and were successful in interdicting about four weapons shipments of things going to Yemen,” he said, noting that three of the shipments were intercepted by coalition partners of the US, while one shipment was intercepted by a US ship.

“We allowed the United Nations access to all the weapons we got from one of the interdictions, and they published quite an extensive report,” Donegan said. “They said specifically that the weapons came from Iran and were destined for Yemen in violation of UN Security Council resolutions. That’s not my assessment, that’s the United Nations assessment.

The UN also said it wasn't a very significant flow of arms from Iran. The report's up thread.

A remotely guided boat attacking a fast moving warship is a new one though. The Iranians can easily smuggle know how and it's plausible they were involved here.

 

[CrabbedOne]

UN also warned of famine elsewhere. Note the objection to squeezing Yemen's food supply and parlous economy.

 

[CrabbedOne]

On Gulf News Currency rout pushes Yemen to brink of starvation

...
Four of Yemen’s 21 provinces — Abyan, Hadhramaut, Taiz and Hodeida — are experiencing a food “emergency,” meaning that more than 15 per cent of their populations suffer from “acute malnutrition”, the UN said in a February 10 report.

“Hodeida and other ports operated by the Houthis are operating way below capacity and in many cases have been bombed quite severely,” Adam Baron, a Yemen specialist at the European Council on Foreign Relations, said by phone from Vienna. “Roads have been bombed, crucial bridges have been bombed, fuel costs are astronomical.”

Najeeb Mohammad lives in Taiz, on the front lines of the war. The crisis has cost him his sales job and his apartment, which was damaged in fighting, and the father of five scrapes by as a motorcycle-taxi driver.

“Even tea is a luxury,” he said by phone. “This is no longer a life.”

 

[CrabbedOne]

On The Hill Escalation in Yemen risks famine, collapse, Iranian entrapment

...
If the Yemeni government re-takes all of Yemen’s Red Sea ports (including Hudaydah), it could reduce or cut off food supply to Yemenis in the center and north of the country. Yemeni and other diplomats deny that will happen, underscoring that food will be distributed more actively and more fairly throughout Yemen. However, battle lines will immediately ring these Red Sea ports. Whether or not you doubt these intentions, getting food across battle lines at scale has often proven nearly impossible.

As a result, the capital Sana’a and the Houthi homeland Sadah would be strangled using a combination of economic and humanitarian pressure.

About 90 percent of UN food assistance and 70 percent of Yemen’s pre-war commercial food imports enter Yemen through Red Sea ports. However, most acknowledge that the Houthis will not be moved easily by economic or humanitarian pressure. To think otherwise flies in the face of Houthi history and their willingness to persevere against better-armed foes.

This strategy will create extraordinary pressures on the Yemeni people living in the center and north of the country over time, with the hope that their discontent is ultimately directed at the precipitating actor (the Houthis), rather than the actor directly responsible (the Yemeni government and its coalition backers).

This strategy will compound an already dire humanitarian situation. The UN has reported that at least 7 million Yemenis need emergency food assistance to survive and at least 2.2 million Yemenis are already acutely malnourished.

Were Yemen to tip into famine, something that the Obama administration worked hard to avoid, we could see staggering death tolls. For comparison, the 2011 famine in Somalia killed over a quarter of million people among a population that is less than half of Yemen’s population.
...

My bold, the Obama administration paid lip service to humanitarian concerns in Yemen wagging the finger at the Saudis when they bombed civilian infrastructure hindering aid much as the Russian did in Syria. It was more than No 10 did. The FO was always rushing to defend Saudi actions from very plausible war crimes allegations and British arms deals. Team Trump tying itself in knots over the R+6 in Syria is likely to be much more hawkish in Yemen. The Donald playing the tough guy isn't to be swayed by civilian casualties.

 

[CrabbedOne]

On MEE UK firms linked to alleged war crimes tout weapons in UAE

...
All the major firms that arm Saudi Arabia and its allies were at the event displaying weapons, many of which have been used in air strikes in Yemen, including the Eurofighter jet.

Middle East Eye has also learned that BAE Systems used the event to showcase the British-made Hawk Advanced Trainer, including presenting a scale model fitted with Brimstone missiles and Pavey IV bombs that have been used by Saudi forces over Yemen.

It is unclear whether the controversial weapons can be fitted to the training aircraft, and it is unlikely that this would be the case - but the display comes after Saudi Arabia agreed to purchase 30 of the jets in February 2016. Analysts say the training jets are vital for Saudi Arabia to train its pilots for action over Yemen.

Also in attendance was MBDA, which makes the Storm Shadow and Brimstone missile, and Raytheon, which makes the Paveway IV bombs.

British Defence Secretary Michael Fallon confirmed last year that the Royal Saudi Air Force has used the British-supplied missiles and the Scottish-built Paveway IV guided bombs against Houthi rebels in Yemen.

They are among the most powerful weapons in the UK’s arsenal and have been deployed in several conflicts by the Royal Air Force. A defence source told MEE the weapons are “battle proven” and “very attractive to the Saudi and UAE air forces operating in Yemen”.

The display of British military hardware in the UAE comes at a time of ongoing international condemnation of civilian deaths caused by Saudi-led air strikes in Yemen.

According to reports from IDEX 2017, British arms firms are continuing to concentrate on arms exports to the Middle East, despite a partial US arms embargo against Saudi Arabia implemented by former President Barack Obama in December 2016, and an outstanding challenge in British courts.
...

Ah the sweet smell of Brimstone. Very expensive way to blow up a 70s Toyota full of Houthis but the Saudis can afford it.

At some point the Princes are going to figure out the similarly ruthless Russians in Syria are being rather more effective with dumb bombs and a handful of old air frames at a fraction of the cost. Roughly an eighth of the daily price of GCC air operations in Yemen from what I recall.

With Trump wanting to escalate in Yemen there'll be fierce competition with the Septics over GCC arms contracts. I do love it when we seize the moral high ground in other "barbarous" things while behaving like a bunch of money grubbing disgraces.

 

[CrabbedOne]

On Informed Comment As Trump Goes In: Foxing the public over Yemen and Iran

When it comes to reporting the conflict in Yemen, Fox News is exceptionally bad. Fox has been fooling its viewers for years but now, with Donald Trump installed in the White House, the problem is becoming a more serious. Trump is a devotee of Fox News: it tells him what he wants to hear – about Iranian influence in Yemen, among other things – and he seems to trust it more than he trusts America’s intelligence agencies.

To make matters worse, though, Trump appears to be watching Fox News without giving it his full attention, presumably because he also has his Twitter feed and presidential business to attend to. As we saw from his reference to an “incident” in Sweden last week – an imaginary event which he claimed to have heard about on Fox News – he has a tendency to pick up garbled versions of what Fox actually broadcasts.

There was a similar Fox-inspired “incident” earlier this month involving Iran or, to be more accurate, not involving Iran. On 2 February, White House spokesman Sean Spicer wrongly asserted that Iran had attacked an American warship. Spicer told reporters “Iran’s additional hostile action that it took against our Navy vessel” (along with a recent Iranian missile test) was one of the reasons why the US was putting Iran “on notice”.

The “American” warship in question was actually Saudi. It had been attacked in the Red Sea at the end of January by Houthi fighters from Yemen who – as Fox constantly reminds its viewers – are “Iranian-backed”. The mistaken idea that the ship was American appears to have come from a Fox News report claiming the attack might have been “meant for an American warship”.
...

This is a very valid point. Trump appears to live in an Alt-Fact bubble reassured by tales of his wonderfulness by Fox. The Whitehouse itself is thick with Fox and Breitbart "talent" that will sometimes even leak to their outlets to influence a bullshit hungry President. Trump's view of Yemen will more be that of Fox scare stories than a long painstaking UN report quoted here and up thread that ascribes a fairly minor role to Iran in Yemen.

Ironically this will probably suit Iran as fighting an intractable war with the Houthi-Saleh rebel alliance in Yemen may become as big a US distraction as it is for the Saudis. Which under Russian cover in the far more strategically important Syria will allow Iran to consolidate its considerable gains there.

 

[CrabbedOne]

On Background Briefing February 28 - Trump Kills the Clean Water Act; Trump Can't Govern; Trump Passes the Buck on the "Successful" SEAL Raid

The last bit with Robert Young Pelton talking about the recent raid in Yemen. He says a lot of these things tend to go pear shaped and don't have tangible results. Probably disrupted AQAP's network a bit. The idea is more you just keep plugging away until it collapses. Doesn't blame Trump though he's probably far less risk adverse than Obama.

Predicts a large war with Iran that will completely overshadow the current faffing about with IS. Because that's the sort state on state war the US military was built to fight not harrying terrorists. With Mattis and McMaster's in place I'd say that's not an unlikely predilection.

 

[hash tag]

We will bomb and kill them, we will stop the aid/medecine getting in and kill them, one way or another we will get 'em Saudi Arabia 'killing children' by delaying aid to Yemen, warns Save the Children

 

[CrabbedOne]

On TSG The U.S. Ramps Up Operations in Yemen

...
The situation in Yemen is similar to the complex and often contradictory situation that the U.S. faces in Syria, where it has focused on fighting one war—a war against the so-called Islamic State—while most other combatants and their foreign supporters have focused on fighting each other. Conducting counterterrorism operations in the midst of a civil war requires combat within combat—an exceedingly difficult and dangerous task. The increase in U.S. operations in Yemen indicates the serious concern in Washington over the threat posed by AQAP.
...

The Pentagon often moves focus when frustrated in other theatres. In 2016 and Iraq centric campaign against IS shifted somewhat to Syria in search of easier tactical gains and then focused back on Iraq as Abadi fast tracked the Mosul op for political reasons. I get the feeling escalating in Yemen is another version of that.

Obama made the mistake of often seeing countries through the lens of Counter Terrorism. This was particularly true in Yemen. The US is probably correct to be worried about AQAP but the larger problem in Yemen is instability that allows AQAP and its ilk to flourish. That's completely failed in the South with Hadi's fallen, illegitimate government failing to gain even proper control of Aden.

Purely Counter Terrorism based policies can make the situation worse. Not that Trump would care but its both highly immoral to fuck other countries up in a quest for minute improvements in domestic security and self defeating. The most successful parts of Obama's policies where building up effective local forces but unfortunately these mostly sided with Saleh and are now fighting Hadi's government rather well leaving a huge vacuum. The least were being milked by the corrupt Saleh government that was probably building up AQAP to extract aid and the drone program which infringed on Yemeni sovereignty and stirs local anger against the US. Locals are currently joking about how many donkey's this last wave killed. There's not a little anger about that SEAL raid that went wrong.

The US needs to stand up local actors to provide a security environment. Interim arrangements are needed in government. The US probably needs to persuade the KSA to cut Hadi loose. The war against the Saleh-Houthi rebellion is going nowhere and distracts from rebuilding some sort of compromise. It should be wound down. Famine is a political opportunity for AQAP who have proved better than Had's government at mitigating its effects on the population. In the North a de facto state exists but heavy bombing feeds Iranian narratives. Iran's influence is still slight but needs to be tackled in more subtle ways or it won't be in a decade hence.

 

[CrabbedOne]

On Lawfare The United States Escalates in Yemen, the U.S.-backed Rebels in Syria Cut Raqqa’s Lifeline, and the Saudis Try a Charm Offensive

...
Here’s the thing: These two conflicts are largely being fought separately, and the alliances in the war against the Houthis and Saleh are not the same as the alliances in the war against AQAP. That complicates U.S. war efforts, and the January 29 raid brought that complication into sharp relief. While the primary target, AQAP leader Qassim al-Rimi, escaped the raid, U.S. Special Operators did take out Abdulrauf al Dhahab, a brother-in-law of of Anwar al-Awlaqi with deep ties to AQAP. But Dhahab was also a Hadi supporter on the Saudi-backed government’s payroll. Also caught in the January 29 crossfire were local tribal leaders asking Dhahab to mediate a dispute with between them and AQAP. It’s hard to talk about any of these people being on one “side” of the conflict; they’re doing their best to manage local interests and have been caught between competing powers in the area. Their allegiances may be questionable, but they certainly will not be sympathetic to U.S. or Emirati forces after the raid.

How muddled is the Yemeni battlespace? The Houthis fought a series of wars with Saleh’s government from 2004 through 2010, but now they’re allies governing jointly from Sanaa. AQAP has been fighting the Houthis since those wars began to wind down because they consider them apostates because of their Shia identity, and has continued to fight them in parallel with pro-government forces. AQAP also opposes the Hadi government, but local leaders caught between AQAP and Saudi-backed pro-Hadi forces have worked with both. Anyone who studies civil wars can attest to how complicated and fungible alliance structures can be; that’s all the more true when the conflict is really two intersecting civil wars.
...

Complicated!

 

[CrabbedOne]

On SWJ The Adaptive Transformation of Yemen’s Republican Guard

...
According to documents leaked by a high-level defector, a Huthi priority was to co-opt the YRG into its own chain of command, under the leadership of Abd al-Khaliq al-Huthi, brother of the group’s leader Abd al-Malik.[32] Shortly after entering the capital, the Huthis forcefully stormed several YRG positions, placing loyalists within the forces’ command structure. Hundreds of Huthi fighters were incorporated into YRG ranks as soldiers. The YRG may have lost some its independence, but the injection of experienced and loyal foot soldiers revived its capabilities.

Some Yemeni media outlets argued that by the summer of 2015 the Huthis had seized full control of the YRG, though it appears that Saleh loyalists continued to hold sway within its command.[33] Quantifying the extent to which one or the other group had power over this complex and newly adaptable entity was virtually impossible. By early 2015, the YRG-Huthi hybrid was transforming into a force composed of ideologically motivated irregular fighters working alongside operators of heavy weaponry and professionally trained commanders. Rather than the Egyptian, Iraqi or Jordanian Republican Guards on which it had been variously modeled, under Huthi pressure the YRG rapidly drifted toward a structure more commonly associated with Hizbullah and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

Shortly after seizing the capital the Huthis began transferring heavy weaponry from the YRG and 1st Armored Division to their strongholds near the border with Saudi Arabia. Alleging that SCUD missiles from YRG stockpiles had been transferred north of Sana’a and pointed toward Saudi Arabia, in March 2015 the Saudi Air Force launched a bombing campaign targeting a variety of military targets. Some of the fiercest Saudi bombing runs focused on YRG bases surrounding Sana’a.[34] In April 2015 the YRG spokesman stated that YRG units had been scattered and redeployed in light of Saudi strikes.[35] Overmatched by Saudi airpower, the YRG became even more intertwined with the Huthis, and in the following months the YRG and the Huthi “Popular Committees” took credit for joint operations along the Saudi border, including ambushing Saudi patrols, launching raids into Saudi territory, blowing up isolated border guard posts, and raining artillery rockets on Saudi areas along the border. In June 2015, they launched the first of dozens of ballistic missiles toward Saudi territory. On the battlefield it became virtually impossible to separate the YRG and the “Popular Committees.”
...

Points out Saleh's elite Praetorians the YRG may have had significant sympathies with the Houthis. It's surprisingly produced a rather effective mixed force.

The use of rocketry is particularly noticeable. Rapidly presenting the KSA with a domestic threat akin to HA's rocket arsenal menacing Israel. Bit ironic as the Saudis and US sponsored Saleh in building up his elite forces to counter Houthi and AQAP threats.

 

[CrabbedOne]

On Just Security Hitting Iran Where It Doesn’t Hurt: Why U.S. Intervention in Yemen Will Backfire

...
Expanding support to the Saudi-led coalition, up to and including an on-the-ground military campaign, will not only continue to implicate the US in the coalition’s violations of human rights and international humanitarian law. It will negate entirely the political solution, however elusive, toward which U.S. Ambassador Matthew Tueller and others at the State Department are working tirelessly. Even if the Houthi-Saleh alliance loses San’a, they will buckle down in the mountains of Yemen’s northwest for a generation, serving exactly the role that Iran prefers. This is because in a prolonged insurgency, those elements within the Houthi movement that reject outside interference will have to yield to Iranian influence or be eliminated, as the small arms and occasional missiles trickling into the country will be their sole lifeline.

Rather than ratcheting up U.S. military involvement in the Yemeni civil war, the Trump administration should follow the lead of its diplomatic officers and commit to the UN peace process that has the best chance of producing a legitimate transitional government, while encouraging creative peacebuilding solutions – including reactivating networks of tribal mediation – at the local level, and convincing allies to contribute to an expansive postwar reconstruction program. U.S. intervention will hardly put Iran “on notice”; instead, it will fuel further decades of instability, and risk pushing yet another of the region’s factions entirely into Iran’s orbit.

Unfortunately it's pretty easy to guess which approach Trump will favour.

 

[CrabbedOne]

Greedily following the British with their no arms dealer left behind Yemen policy.

 

[DownwardDog]

On MEE UK firms linked to alleged war crimes tout weapons in UAE
Ah the sweet smell of Brimstone. Very expensive way to blow up a 70s Toyota full of Houthis but the Saudis can afford it.

At some point the Princes are going to figure out the similarly ruthless Russians in Syria are being rather more effective with dumb bombs and a handful of old air frames at a fraction of the cost. Roughly an eighth of the daily price of GCC air operations in Yemen from what I recall.

With Trump wanting to escalate in Yemen there'll be fierce competition with the Septics over GCC arms contracts. I do love it when we seize the moral high ground in other "barbarous" things while behaving like a bunch of money grubbing disgraces.

Brimstone needs Mil Std 704 (power) and 1553 (data) connections on the hardpoints - neither of which the Hawk has and never will have unless BAE can persuade India to pay for it via the Combat Hawk proposal. Which, of course, will never happen.

If the Saudis do want a cheap(er) way of fucking up Yemen they won't be shopping Russian, they'll go for something like the AT-6C or A-29.

 

[CrabbedOne]

Headline Bit unfair to Blitzer he doesn't only worry about US jobs he did say "and revenues".

 

[CrabbedOne]

From Atlantic Council US Strikes on Al-Qaeda in Yemen Not Separate from Ongoing Civil War

...
With all this going on, the United States has upgraded its periodic drone strikes inside of Yemen in targeting Al-Qaeda with the recent escalation in air raids and Special Forces missions. Trump may be so intent on “winning” wars that he seems to believe that the US military has not yet tried to win. Yet analysts well-versed in the politics of Yemen and AQAP consistently argue that the war itself fuels AQAP’s growth.

Trump and some in his administration have aggressively advocated for the destruction of radical Islam and apparently see Yemen as a terrain on which that victory might unfold. Through the lens of a civilizational clash, he imagines that the United States can use its advance warfare technology to pick off AQAP leaders and thus weaken and eventually defeat the organization. This approach largely assumes that it can do so as a separate project from aiding Saudi Arabia in its efforts to restore Hadi to power.

But the drone strikes and ground raids are unlikely to weaken an expanding AQAP, particularly as the narrative that resonates with Yemenis is one that accuses the United States of supporting the destruction of the country. The United Nations Security Council-appointed Council of Experts on Yemen recently submitted its final report, prepared in accordance with UNSC Resolution 2266 (2016). The report states emphatically what Yemen observers have been arguing for more than a year, namely, that a military victory of one side over the other is not “a realistic possibility.” Nonetheless, the United States continues to assist the Saudi-led alliance as if such a possibility were realistic.

AQAP will continue to flourish in the spaces created by the war. They may even continue to fight on the same side as Saudi Arabia against the Houthi-Saleh alliance, as they did in Hadramawt. The Trump administration, like the Obama administration before it, seems to want it both ways: to defeat the Houthis (even though that war is expanding AQAP’s base), and to defeat AQAP. The big mistake is to imagine that the latter is a distinct conflict from—and can be accomplished with no reference to—the ongoing war.

Essentially Trump has so far doubled down on Obama's failed CT program in Yemen. What really kiboshed that was the Houthi-Saleh rising going South and the subsequent Civil War. This has created a fertile environment for AQAP to expand in. This is only made worse by the KSA's support for an illegitimate fallen government that can't even gain proper control of Aden, sectarian rhetoric and savage bombing campaign. There is no realistic political endgame that involves Hadi's restoration in Sanaa.

The war is a stalemate that's an obstacle to dealing with the rise of AQAP. It's a distraction from other more important business elsewhere. With famine encroaching it's a vast war crime waiting to happen that may put Syria in the shade.

Yet it offers profitable arms sales and a simpler theatre than Syria where an Iranian chimera can also be chased.

 

[CrabbedOne]

On Reuters How Saudi Arabia's war in Yemen has made al Qaeda stronger – and richer

...
AQAP has also learned to be less cruel than its rival, Islamic State, which has struggled to gain a foothold in a population repelled by its brutality. While AQAP has resorted to killing suspected “sorcerers,” and carried out stonings of at least one man and woman accused of adultery, residents and the group’s online media suggest such incidents are rare.

And even when AQAP publicises punishments, their videos and photographs never show the level of gratuitous gore that Islamic State revels in. Rather than resorting to mass beheadings, AQAP has detained or put under house arrest several dozen army officers and other figures they see as a threat, activists said.

One Mukalla resident said her life had changed little since AQAP swept through the city. “We carry out our lives normally, they walk among the people,” she told Reuters by phone. “Of course they’re trying to create a popular haven.”

A regional diplomat who follows Yemen says that if al Qaeda manages to successfully root itself as a political and economic organisation, it could become a more resilient threat, much like al Shabaab in nearby Somalia.

“We may be facing a more complicated al Qaeda,” the diplomat said, “not just a terrorist organisation but a movement controlling territory with happy people inside it.”

Very interesting piece on a thriving AQ franchise largely due to abject state failure in the South. AQAP have got so rich off loot and smuggling that they've declared income tax un-Islamic and are paying it back to people.

 

[CrabbedOne]

On War On The Rocks THE RISKS OF FORGETTING YEMEN’S SOUTHERN SECESSIONIST MOVEMENT

...
Hirak may not emerge from the conflict as a unified political unit, but the devastating effects of the war will only stoke Southerners’ desire for independence. While Hadi and the Saudi-coalition may be able to prevent secession, southerners are not going to abandon their vision of southern independence for a deal that leaves the northern political structures intact and grants southerners meager concessions.

Throughout the peace talks that took place in Kuwait in 2016, Hadi and Saudi Arabia thus far have made it clear that they are intent on upholding the 2011 Gulf Cooperation Council initiative, the outcomes of the National Dialogue Conference, and U.N. Security Council resolutions calling for the Houthis to demilitarize. By leaving Hirak out of the talks in Kuwait, Hadi and the coalition have sent a message that settling matters with the Houthis will overshadow long-simmering southern grievances. As the conflict drags on, Hadi and the Saudi coalition will only become more focused on reconciling with the Houthis and less concerned with addressing their own allies’ grievances. Failing to include Hirak in future negotiations risks future turmoil with a now battle-hardened Southern Resistance.

Striking a deal with only the Houthis may address some of Hirak’s grievances regarding the efficacy of the National Dialogue Conference, but any future political settlement will need to go beyond a hasty agreement to end the war. It is essential that a post-conflict settlement addresses the grievances unique to Southern Yemen and Hirak and is led by someone willing to address the needs of all Yemenis or the country will likely collapse into another regional conflict.

 

[CrabbedOne]

On MEE EXCLUSIVE: Pakistan sends combat troops to southern Saudi border

...
The deployment of the Pakistani brigade follows a visit by General Qamar Javed Bajwa, the Pakistani chief of army staff (COAS), to Saudi Arabia on a three-day official visit in December last year.

"COAS reiterated Pakistan's commitment to the security and protection of the Holy Mosques and also the territorial integrity of the kingdom," the Pakistani army said in a statement.

"Later, General Qamar Javed Bajwa met chief of general staff of Saudi Forces, General Abdul Rehman bin Saleh al-Bunyan, to discuss military to military relations, defence cooperation and regional security situation.

"Both leaders agreed to boost military cooperation and collaboration."

The area of deployment for the Pakistani brigade is politically sensitive in Islamabad, because two years ago the parliament rejected a request by Saudi Arabia's King Salman for Pakistan to join a "Sunni" coalition to fight the Houthis.
...

The Pakistanis always said they'd help defend the KSA's own soil as they have in the past.

 

[CrabbedOne]

On TAC Famine Continues to Stalk Yemen

...
The governments that bear a large share of responsibility for creating these horrific conditions should be the first to provide the needed funding, but there is virtually no pressure on them to do so. Almost the entire world is responding to the world’s worst humanitarian crisis with a shrug.

It is important to remember that Yemen’s impending famine is not the result of some natural disaster, but was created by deliberate policy decisions made in Riyadh, Washington, and London. Yemen is on the brink of a huge man-made famine, and those governments bear significant responsibility for having caused it.

And just as Trump seems set on escalating the war and is proposing pulling US UN funding.

 

[CrabbedOne]

On TAC The U.S. Must Stop Enabling the Destruction of Yemen

...
Riedel says near the end that “[t]he prime American interest is to help our oldest ally in the region, Saudi Arabia, find a way out of a conflict that is not working out in its own interests,” but at this point that isn’t true. The prime American interest after the last two years of this disgraceful war is to recognize that the Saudis aren’t really an ally at all and to extricate ourselves from the noxious relationship we have with Riyadh as quickly as we can. In the absence of U.S. backing, the Saudis and their allies will be hard-pressed to continue their failed war, and will have to come to terms with their enemies sooner rather than later. Attacking Yemen was never going to “work out” in Saudi Arabia’s interests, and the U.S. should want nothing to do with a reckless government that imagined that it would.

Rather going in the other direction with the Brits cheering the munitions hungry KSA on even more loudly.

 

[CrabbedOne]

In The Atlantic Trump's Yemen Policy Serves Saudi Royals Better Than Americans

...
It’s just the sort of messy intervention that an establishment hawk like Hillary Clinton would’ve hubristically prosecuted and that populists are understandably tired of financing. (Some hawks regard it as a proxy war against Iran, a view many dispute.)

Still, Trump persists in deepening American involvement.
...

In GWOT terms daffy "Muslim Ban" (an act of victimisation not counter terrorism) excepted Trump is behaving rather like you'd have expected the Hawkish Clinton to. And that isn't that different from Obama who in turn wasn't greatly different from Bush and actually promised to be a hawk in Afghanistan. The escalation of US activities in Yemen is the biggest change on Trump's watch so far.

 

[yield]

From Atlantic Council US Strikes on Al-Qaeda in Yemen Not Separate from Ongoing Civil War
Essentially Trump has so far doubled down on Obama's failed CT program in Yemen. What really kiboshed that was the Houthi-Saleh rising going South and the subsequent Civil War. This has created a fertile environment for AQAP to expand in. This is only made worse by the KSA's support for an illegitimate fallen government that can't even gain proper control of Aden, sectarian rhetoric and savage bombing campaign. There is no realistic political endgame that involves Hadi's restoration in Sanaa.

The war is a stalemate that's an obstacle to dealing with the rise of AQAP. It's a distraction from other more important business elsewhere. With famine encroaching it's a vast war crime waiting to happen that may put Syria in the shade.

Yet it offers profitable arms sales and a simpler theatre than Syria where an Iranian chimera can also be chased.

Famine 'largest humanitarian crisis in history of UN'

UN humanitarian chief says 20 million people in Yemen, South Sudan, Somalia and Nigeria face starvation and famine.

11 March 2017

 

[CrabbedOne]

 

[CrabbedOne]

On TSG IntelBrief: Back to the Future in Counterterrorism Tactics

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By declaring a part of a country or region ‘an area of active hostilities,’ the military would be authorized to conduct drone strikes without interagency review for a period of 180 days; President Trump has authorized three areas in Yemen as areas of active hostilities, and is expected to approve several in Somalia. The U.S. has conducted strikes against terrorist targets in both countries for years, yet the situation in both has deteriorated dramatically. Increased drone strikes—along with a shift in the threshold of ‘acceptable’ civilian casualty avoidance from ‘near-certainty’ to ‘reasonable certainty’—may produce tactical gains against surging terrorist groups, but are more likely to kill innocent non-combatants in the process.

The move to push tactical drone strike authority away from the White House and back to the Pentagon and Langley highlights how large of a role drones play in what remains a very limited counterterrorism toolbox. Indeed, changes in counterterrorism policy often involve little more than decisions to do more or do less of the same thing. All the while, the overarching terrorism problems in places such as Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Somalia, and elsewhere thrive underneath insurgencies and civil wars that drones cannot possibly contain.

Trump Droning on at a higher frequency than Obama particularly in Yemen.

 

[CrabbedOne]

On TAC The Humanitarian Crisis in Yemen Is Approaching a ‘Point of No Return’

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Even if there were a surge in funding and aid right now, the aid still needs to get into the country, and at the moment the Saudi-led coalition is deliberately getting in the way of that as it has been for years. In order to distribute food in the country, there will also need to be a prolonged cease-fire, and that will never hold as long as the coalition’s supporters continue to provide arms and fuel to keep their campaign going. There needs to be a dramatic and swift change in U.S. and U.K. policies, but all signs point to the continuation of the disgraceful status quo.

Yemen’s famine could still be prevented, but it is almost too late. The international failure to respond effectively to Yemen’s crisis continues to be remarkable. One reason for that failure early on was lack of knowledge of the scale and severity of the crisis. There has been no consistent attention paid to the crisis in major media, and even when there is some coverage it often leaves out identifying the governments responsible for the disaster. The war on Yemen has been mostly neglected since it began, and even when there are reports on the humanitarian crisis they do not always identify the causes of the impending famine.

But those explanations can’t account for the near-total indifference to the plight of Yemen’s people almost two years later. The crisis had already been classified as one of the worst in the world in the summer of 2015, and yet here we are in 2017 and conditions have been allowed to deteriorate much further. That is happening in no small part because the governments that are in a position to avert disaster have been helping to bring it about and they don’t want to call attention to the horror they have unleashed on millions of innocent people.

And if anything the media focus is on a similar crisis in Africa next door. I'm reminded of Biafra.

 

[CrabbedOne]

Attack stopped when the bird's crew realised they were just killing migrants rather than hostiles.