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...and Yemen!

On MEE Yemen war: Demands for southern independence split coalition
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A coalition divided

And the problem for many of the Southern Movement is Hadi. They realise he may be president of Yemen once the war ends, but fear that his past talk of a federal Yemen will not deliver an independent south.

One member of the Southern Movement told MEE: "We accepted Hadi and his government in Aden for the sake of the coalition countries, led by the UAE in Aden.

"We are sure that the coalition countries, led by the UAE in Aden, will support the independence of the south. That’s why we support them.” For its part, the UAE has not commented on the issue of independence.

Southern Movement fighters have worked with Security Belt forces, the source confirmed. Hadi does not have the authority to depose or appoint any leader of the Security Belt forces, the source added.

The leaders of the Southern Movement accuse Hadi of being a "traitor" because he served as vice president to then-leader Ali Abdullah Saleh, yet during that time they failed to advance the cause of southern independence.

"We have been demanding independence since 1994, and Hadi did not support us,” the source said. “Now he wants us to support him and this is difficult for us.”
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On MEI Peace in Yemen Requires Bridging North-South Divide
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The Importance of the South

The war has dramatically changed the landscape of the south. Hirak’s autonomous units further metastasized when fighters were asked to continue north with the coalition to liberate lands as far away as Sanaa. Hirak’s troubled relationship with Hadi and the Gulf states reached a boiling point last May when Hirakis clashed with coalition security forces in Aden, after Hirakis entered a security administration building. As such, support, primarily from the Saudis, has dwindled.

In January, Hiraki factions refused to participate in a Saudi-led effort to capture the Bab al-Mandab strait in the Taiz governorate. However, southern factions fought alongside the coalition to liberate the port of Mocha. Charles Schmitz notes that the operation in Taiz caused “friction among southerners who reject any involvement in northern affairs and do not want southern blood spilt for northern issues.”

Nevertheless, Hirak still enjoys popular support among the South’s six million residents. Hirak is both deeply divided and widely popular, making the movement a significant yet uncertain player in the current war. Still, the intensity of the war has exacerbated the divide between north and south, deepening Hirak’s separatist aspirations.

Although the South’s independence does not seem currently tenable, Hirak’s demands must be considered at any negotiation table. If not, Yemen will continue to remain unstable. The north-south dimension to the Yemen war is a major factor that the new U.S. administration needs to consider as it frames its Yemen policy and seeks an enduring resolution to the conflict.
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On TDS Iran steps up support for Houthis: sources
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Sources with knowledge of the military movements, who declined to be identified, say that in recent months Iran has taken a greater role in the 2-year-old conflict by stepping up arms supplies and other support. This mirrors the strategy it has used to support its ally Hezbollah in Syria.

A senior Iranian official said Maj. Gen. Qasem Soleimani, commander of the Quds Force – the external arm of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps – met top IRGC officials in Tehran last month to look at ways to “empower” the Houthis.

“At this meeting, they agreed to increase the amount of help, through training, arms and financial support,” the official said.

“Yemen is where the real proxy war is going on and winning the battle in Yemen will help define the balance of power in the Middle East.”

Iran rejects accusations from Saudi Arabia that it is giving financial and military support to the Houthis in the struggle for Yemen, blaming the deepening crisis on Riyadh.

Brig. Gen. Ahmed Asiri, spokesman for the Arab coalition fighting the Houthis, told Reuters: “We don’t lack information or evidence that the Iranians, by various means, are smuggling weapons into the area.

“We observe that the Kornet anti-tank weapon is on the ground, whereas before it wasn’t in the arsenal of the Yemeni army or of the Houthis. It came later.”
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Baiting the trap.
 
On The Intercept Aid Officials Beg Congress to Help Yemen, While Trump Sends More Bombs
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The situation has worsened as the Saudi-backed forces prepare to retake the Western port city of Hodeida, once the waypoint of 70 percent of Yemen’s food and aid imports. Near the beginning of the war, Saudi Arabia bombed the cranes that port workers use to unload ships — slowing the pace of work to a crawl. Since then, airstrikes by the coalition have made it virtually impossible for aid to reach the port.

At Wednesday’s hearing, Yuris Dassard, the director-general of the Red Cross, urged the U.S. to help clear access to the port. “You can ensure access to the port. You make sure ensure that the blockade is done with a humanitarian exception.”

He continued: “It will make a lot of difference for a lot of people. … There is no choice. There is no market anymore in Yemen. So the blockade needs to cease, or needs to be managed.”

Last week, 52 members of Congress sent a letter to the State Department, urging it to pressure Saudi Arabia into making the port accessible. “Right now, the U.S. must act urgently to avert famine and employ our diplomatic clout with the Coalition members to ensure that humanitarian goods can get into the port of Hodeida,” the letter read. “The lives of hundreds of thousands of children are at stake.”

Sen. Ben Cardin, D-Md., the leading Democrat on the committee, acknowledged the port was a “major entry point for humanitarian assistance,” and said it was “unclear as to the current abilities to get current humanitarian aid into Yemen.”

Last year, USAID gave Yemen $56 million in humanitarian aid, but it is unclear if aid will continue at all under Trump. According to a budget outline released last week, Trump wants to slash 28 percent of USAID’s funding.
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Probably not a large ground commitment. Trump is turning out to be a pretty interventionist anti-interventionist as he's leaving a lot of decisions up to the DoD. Expansion of ops in Libya and Yemen on the way as well.
 

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On a personal note, in the nearly 20 years of having had the privilege of working and interacting with U.S. national security officials and staffers, I have never followed an issue that virtually nobody can justify or defend. Military officers who have watched or played a role in the Saudi-led bombing campaign are especially sickened by the brutality and strategic pointlessness of the airstrikes. But as the civil war rolls into its third year, do not expect any reduction in airstrikes or U.S. support for them. This shameful war now extends into a second presidential administration and a new Congress that seem even more enthused by it.
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Well Obama taking his eye of the ball in Iraq may actually be a worse decision than that and getting railroaded into the Libyan debacle bears comparison but we don't know how a now potentially genocidal war in Yemen plays out.
 
On MEE 'We have to obey them': Al-Qaeda increases its power in Yemen's Taiz city
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The power politics in Taiz, the cultural capital of Yemen are complex.

There are 10 groups fighting under the banner of the Popular Resistance, including the Salafis, Muhamashin and al-Qaeda. They have their disputes over politics and religion – for example fighters in the Sa'aleek Brigade do not pray the five times every day - but all are united against the Houthis.

A leader of the pro-government resistance in Taiz city told MEE on condition of anonymity that they are aware of the dangers of al-Qaeda in Taiz city. However, they have resisted conflict as they do not want to open up a second front when fighting the Houthis is their priority.

Taiz is not a stronghold of al-Qaeda and we did not hear any mention of al-Qaeda in Taiz before the war,” the source said. “But there are some members of al-Qaeda who have come to Taiz from the southern provinces during the last two years. Now they have spread to the east of the city.”

He said that those fighters had been key in the fight against the Houthi rebels and would return to the provinces – by verbal agreement - after the war

The source stressed: “If they do not leave the city then we will fight them and will force them to leave. This is what happened in Aden and some other southern provinces."

He said al-Qaeda had not bothered residents of Taiz city and that there had not been any complaints against them. He said they arraigned Samet to investigate him as they are responsible for guarding the hospital and did not punish him.
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An activist just tried to perform a citizen's arrest on a Saudi general

An anti-war demonstrator attempted to perform a citizen’s arrest on a Saudi general visiting London, over his country's alleged war crimes in Yemen.

Major General Ahmed Asiri was confronted by activist Sam Waldron, who was quickly pushed away by the soldier’s bodyguards.

British police also pulled away protesters who shouted “hands off Yemen” and attempted to block the general’s car. ....

...Video footage caught General Asiri showing protesters the middle finger.

On Twitter, the Saudi Embassy called the protests an “attempted attack”.
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Scum.
 
On Al Monitor Congress raises alarm over US confrontation with Yemen's Houthis
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"Engaging our military against Yemen’s Houthis when no direct threat to the United States exists and without prior congressional authorization would violate the separation of powers clearly delineated in the constitution," reads a draft letter to Trump obtained by Al-Monitor. "For this reason, we write to request that the Office of Legal Counsel (OLC) provide, without delay, any legal justification that it would cite if the administration intends to engage in direct hostilities against Yemen’s Houthis without seeking congressional authorization."

Attorney General Jeff Sessions is copied on the letter.

The letter is being circulated by Reps. Mark Pocan, D-Wis.; Justin Amash, R-Mich.; Ted Lieu, D-Calif.; and Walter Jones, R-N.C. Peace groups including the Friends Committee on National Legislation are lobbying for it.

The effort comes as the Trump administration has increasingly framed the Houthis as a threat to US interests.
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I would assume Congress would authorise such action if only to please the Israelis.
 
On Al Monitor Critics say operation to take port could spell more catastrophe for Yemen
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The proposed operation comes two years into a grinding civil war in Yemen that has killed 10,000 people and led to a stalemate, and as aid groups warn the impoverished nation of 27 million people could be on the brink of famine.

Proponents of the operation, including officials in the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia as well as some in the State Department and Pentagon, say it could pressure the Houthis into agreeing to return to the negotiating table, and bolster relations between Washington and Gulf allies. Critics of the proposal, including former USAID and Obama National Security Council (NSC) officials and experts at the United Nations, say that if the operation to take the port from the Houthis is successful, it would create a new front line through which it would not be possible to bring food at the needed scale into Sanaa, the capital of 2 million people, and could tip large swaths of the country into famine.
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Of course these two things are not mutually exclusive. Starving Sanaa out by taking Hodeidah is about the only way it could be taken without a lot of Coalition casualties. With Yemen already near a catastrophic famine this could rival or surpass anything the Assad regime has done.
 
I really hope this is not an exercise of 'being seen to do the right thing' and they actually do their job properly. Even then it would be down to the CPS to bring charges based on whatever evidence they find and, as I have made clear beforeI do not have a lot of faith in them.

e2a

Scotland Yard confirmed its war crimes unit was conducting a "scoping exercise" to decide whether it could identify a suspect and begin an investigation.
A Met spokesman said: "On Thursday 30 March 2017, the Metropolitan Police Service (MPS) received a referral of an allegation of war crimes, made against Saudi Arabia, committed in Yemen.
"Following receipt of the referral, the MPS war crimes team (part of the Counter Terrorism Command) began a scoping exercise and contacted those making the allegations.
"There is no investigation at this time, and the scoping exercise continues."
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Well the evidence is incontrovertible imo but plenty of 'scope' for them to decide it's not especially if they get leaned on which they probably will.
 
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In TAC Why U.S. Troops May Fight Alongside al-Qaeda in Yemen
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The lines between anti-Houthi forces and AQAP are far from distinct. In what is a clear parallel with Syria, many of these militias have been infiltrated by al-Qaeda operatives. The largely southern-based militias backed by Saudi Arabia are often poorly trained and poorly paid, if they are paid at all. In contrast, AQAP’s operatives are battle hardened, well-equipped, and well-paid. AQAP—far more than the Houthis—has benefited from the influx of weapons to Yemen. AQAP is leveraging its access to weaponry along with the superior skills of its fighters to overtly and covertly infiltrate many of the forces that are fighting the Houthis. Over the past two years, they have made themselves indispensable in fiercely contested frontline areas like al-Bayda and Taiz.

AQAP’s fighters will play a role in the coming battle for the Yemeni port city of Hodeidah. The port, which is controlled by the Houthis, is the lifeline for northwest Yemen. Yemen imports in excess of 90 percent of its food. Before the war, as much as 70 percent of Yemen’s imports passed through Hodeidah. Recognizing this, Saudi Arabia bombed the port and destroyed its cranes. Despite the bombing of the port and Saudi Arabia’s naval blockade, desperately needed humanitarian supplies and food continue to trickle in through the port.

Seizing the port of Hodeidah would allow Saudi Arabia to tighten its grip on the country by starving much of the population into submission. However, Saudi and Emirati forces are incapable of seizing the port on their own. They have tried and failed. They need the help of the U.S., and it looks like they will get it, perhaps in the form of limited numbers of American troops. With U.S. support, Saudi Arabia may well be able to capture Hodeidah. Yet the real question is: what comes next? In those parts of Yemen that Saudi and Emirati forces claim to have liberated, there is no real functioning government. In many areas, AQAP has filled the void.

What is certain is that the battle for Hodeidah will not be the end of the war in Yemen. It will be just the beginning of a new and far more deadly chapter for all involved—most especially the thousands of Yemeni civilians who are watching their children slowly starve to death. The Houthis and the Yemeni Army units allied with them will fight on. Taking Hodeidah, which is likely to be a costly battle, will be easy compared with the long march up into Yemen’s rugged mountains and canyons, which favor defensive warfare.
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This does look both deeply immoral and a pretty stupid escalatory move in the GWOT. Both AQAP and Iran are likely to benefit.
 
On War On The Rocks DOUBLING DOWN ON AMERICA’S MISADVENTURE IN YEMEN
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Washington’s core strategic objective in Yemen, therefore, should be to leverage U.S. assistance to Saudi Arabia and their coalition partners in the war against the Houthis to achieve an immediate de-escalation of the fighting. Rather than double down on a bad bet, the Trump administration should put the Saudis on notice that if they do not get fully behind the U.N.-sponsored effort to mediate a negotiated end to the conflict, the United States will contemplate cutting off the military, intelligence, and logistics support it is providing to Saudi and coalition forces for their campaign against the Houthis. As a result of its military response to Syria’s chemical weapons attacks, the administration is now in a stronger position to urge the Saudis to exercise greater restraint in their military operations against the Houthis.

When You’re in a Ditch and Want to Get Out

U.S. policy toward Yemen has failed catastrophically. Allured by the prospect of scoring a huge win against Iran and global jihadists and showing there was a new sheriff in town, the Trump administration, which had an opportunity to perform a mid-course correction, forgot the first law of holes and, as a result, is driving U.S. policy into a deeper ditch. By catering to the Saudis in Yemen, the United States has empowered AQAP, strengthened Iranian influence in Yemen, undermined Saudi security, brought Yemen closer to the brink of collapse, and visited more death, destruction, and displacement on the Yemeni population. Ratcheting up U.S. military support for the quixotic, inhumane, and dangerous pursuit of Saudi Arabia’s anti-Iranian agenda in Yemen, in the words of Talleyrand, “would be worse than a crime, it would be a mistake.”
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On BuzzFeedNews Lawmakers Demand Review Of Saudi Bombings Before Massive Arms Sale
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The request, detailed in a letter signed by 31 members of the House of Representatives, could push the United States to disclose sensitive details about when and where the Saudi military ignored Washington’s instructions to avoid targets that resulted in civilian casualties.

Congress must “ensure that the [Royal Saudi Air Force] has the ability to avoid civilian casualties before the U.S. sells them any additional air-to-ground munitions,” said a draft of the letter addressed to Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and Defense Secretary James Mattis.

The demand follows a decision by the State Department to resume the sale of precision-guided weapons to Saudi Arabia as the Trump administration beefs up support for the Arab monarchy’s military campaign in Yemen.

The White House is expected to announce final approval for the arms sale in the coming weeks, a move that would then trigger a formal notification to Congress and allow lawmakers to review the transfer.
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My bold, strange language given a well proven ability to target the same large civilian gathering multiple times.
 
From Crisis Group Instruments of Pain (I): Conflict and Famine in Yemen
Executive Summary

Yemenis are starving because of war. No natural disaster is responsible. No amount of humanitarian aid can solve the underlying problem. Without an immediate, significant course change, portions of the country, in the 21st century and under the watch of the Security Council, will likely tip into famine. The projected disaster is a direct consequence of decisions by all belligerents to weaponise the economy, coupled with indifference and at times a facilitating role played by the international community, including key members of the Security Council such as the U.S., UK and France.

Avoiding famine, if this is still possible, requires the Saudi Arabia-led coalition, supporting the government of President Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi against Huthi rebels and fighters aligned with former President Ali Abdullah Saleh, to halt what promises to be a bloody battle for Yemen’s most important port, Hodeida. It also requires immediate action by both sides to put aside differences and enable central bank technocrats to address the liquidity problem, pay public-sector salaries nationally and regulate the riyal. For this to be sustainable, Yemenis need a ceasefire and a durable political settlement to have a chance at rebuilding the shattered economy.
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This really is despicable.
 

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‘Five foreigners in five years’
As for AQAP’s claim that the group has recruited no more than five foreigners over the past five years, Kendall believes that the group’s Arabic message suggests that it has had many foreigners among its ranks, and possibly still does, but that these individuals arrived prior to 2012.

Dale is thought to have joined AQAP shortly after his arrival in Yemen in November 2011.

‘To my understanding that sounds too few in five years, but I would imagine they would say that. AQAP counts on foreigners being useful at a later point in exporting the Jihad, something that is the biggest fear of the West: Foreigners training as jihadis with AQAP, held together with al-Asiri’s bomb making skills. If AQAP were to say that there are many foreigners with them, that could warrant unwanted attention by Western intelligence and airstrikes,’ says Kendall.

In addition to the reasons provided by AQAP, Kendall has her own thoughts on why the group are not open to welcoming foreigners:

‘AQAP is a very local movement, which is part of its success. Moreover, they have been plagued by spies. So it would make sense to them not to recruit foreigners.’
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Would be interesting if true.

Much have been made of them particularly the "Chechens" but a lot of the foreign fighters IS attracted to Syria probably were a liability as well. Poor Arabic, no combat experience, the locals hate them and probably including the odd tout. If you are not planning imminent world domination but going local rejecting them would be rational. AQ in Syria required that a recruit had referees known to them.
 

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If Rex Tillerson can’t pull off organizing the kind of multilateral pressure that can get the Iranians to stop moving anti-ship missiles into Yemen, though, I frankly want a refund of my tax dollars, because his salary will be a waste of them. That diplomatic effort should be paired with military activities to counter the threat to commercial and military shipping through the Bab al-Mandeb, beginning with more intrusive reconnaissance of the threat: Iran has to understand that Americans will fight—and die, if necessary—to protect freedom of navigation around the Arabian Peninsula.

Our Saudi and Emirati partners should see that we’re now taking Iran’s activities in Yemen seriously and take that as their cue to de-escalate their own campaign. During the early days of the Obama administration, Obama and his Pentagon successfully deterred Israel from taking actions to retard Iran’s nuclear program: “We’ve got this,” was the message. (And we did, in fact, have this.) That same message should now be given to our closest Gulf partners regarding Iran. After the nuclear deal with Iran, we in the Obama administration no longer had the credibility to deliver it—an annoying fact given the 35,000 American troops who currently sit in or offshore Sunni Arab Gulf states protecting them from Iran. The Trump administration can. But it will have to do so in a way that doesn’t suck the United States in further to a hopeless war that has already brought far too much suffering to the people of the region.
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Interesting opinion from Exum: the IRGC-QF's operation in Yemen may be a bit of loose cannon with it's management's attention being mainly on Syria and Iraq.

I suspect it's simpler than that. The attacks on shipping are bait designed to distract a larger predator than those that have already been snared.
 
On War On The Rocks YEMEN: THE GRAVEYARD OF U.S. POLICY MYTHS
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This can be seen no better than in Yemen where the United States is undertaking a process it’s seen unfold before, but now under the terms of another country’s logic. As Perry Cammack and Richard Sokolsky note recently in War on the Rocks:

[W]hile America’s overriding strategic priority in Yemen is to defeat and destroy AQAP, the top Saudi priorities were, in the private words of one senior Saudi prince, “Iran, Iran, and Iran.”​

This does not bode well for protecting U.S. long-term interests in Yemen or the region. Instead, in assisting a multi-country assault on one of the world’s poorest countries, the United States has opted for underwriting a campaign based on sectarianism, rooting out a local actor, and providing an increased foothold for AQAP. Any diversion from fighting AQAP and brokering an honest negotiated settlement between the country’s warring factions by backing an assault on the Houthi rebels — and innocent bystanders — defies U.S. strategic interests.

Whether the United States knows it has made such a choice is unclear. Either way, it typifies some of the major assumptions and mistakes of U.S. policy in the greater Middle East now piling high upon the suffering and starving bodies of Yemen. Should the United States not choose to rectify such a misguided policy or rethink some of its other foreign policy assumptions on display in the deteriorating state of Yemen, it’s frightening to think what situation must arise for any self-correction to take place.
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Obama's policy of weakly supporting the KSA in Yemen didn't make much sense beyond capitulating to a misguided wealthy client that he'd already annoyed. Trump upping his support for them in the hope of thwarting Iran is even worse.
 
In The Cairo Review Beware the Ghosts Yemen’s Starved Children
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Millions of families that have sold belongings and borrowed to the limits of their abilities will soon reach a point of collapse where they have to decide who in the family gets food or not, who receives medical care or not, who lives for another few weeks or not. It is particularly cruel that Yemen’s poorest and most vulnerable citizens bear the brunt of the current fighting. When I contacted Yemen scholar Sheila Carapico at the University of Richmond to seek her analysis of a country she has known and researched for decades, this is what she told me: Contrary to the Saudi Arabian accounts of their aerial bombing to fight Shia militia allied with Iran (Houthi rebels who are members of the Zaydi denomination of Shia Islam), “The casualties of the Saudi-led assault—the dead or dying from trauma injuries or neglect (starvation or deprivation of basic medicines) and those displaced by fighting—are disproportionately Afro-Yemeni, dark-skinned, poverty-stricken, Red Sea coastal people who belong to the Shafai denomination of Sunni Islam. They were already the least privileged members of a poor society.”

These helpless victims largely inhabit the westernmost Red Sea coastal plain, the Tihama, that includes all of Hodeida province and parts of the provinces of Taiz and Hajjah. They and the rest of the country will suffer new mass ravages if Hodeida is attacked, basic commodity imports decline even further, and war continues throughout the country. Ongoing, deliberate warfare has left millions of Yemenis destitute and desperate. They will join the growing pool of tens of millions of once ordinary Arabs whose lives and futures have been destroyed.
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Arresting headline.
 
This is my country that is doing this. People voted to elect the governement that does this. Why don't they think!

Arms company that sold missiles to Gaddafi is a 'role model' for post-Brexit trade, Fallon says

"An arms company that sold missiles to the Gaddafi regime in Libya is a “role model” for the sort of business Britain will be engaged in after Brexit, the Defence Secretary has said."

"Sir Michael Fallon said MBDA is “strengthening the reputation of this country”

"The firm also makes the Brimstone and Storm Shadow missiles and sells them to the Saudi Arabian air force, which is bombing civilians in Yemen."
th
 
CrabbedOne said:
In The Cairo Review Beware the Ghosts Yemen’s Starved Children
Arresting headline.
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it says:

This is because virtually the entire country may be plunged into famine if the port of Hodeida in the north is attacked by the Saudi Arabian-led war machine that is supported by Arab allies, the United States, UK, and others in the world who are eager to offer mercenary troops-for-pay.
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which seems imminent:

The Saudi-led coalition in Yemen is setting conditions to launch a major offensive in Yemen after the month of Ramadan, which begins in late May. The offensive aims to seize al Hudaydah port on Yemen’s Red Sea coast from the al Houthi-Saleh faction. Yemen’s internationally recognized government requested the recall of the UN Resident Coordinator for Humanitarian Affairs in Yemen, who opposes the offensive. The al Hudaydah operation will worsen conditions for a population that already faces a severe humanitarian crisis.
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from here Threat Update
 

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Enter the “Janjaweed”
An assault would probably happen before the holy month of Ramadan, due at the end of May, and would likely include Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces – better known as the “Janjaweed” militia.

The RSF are “shock troops”, with a long history of abuse against civilians, drawing complaints from even Sudan’s regular army. Several thousand have reportedly been sent to Yemen, according to a new Small Arms Survey report.

The Darfur-recruited militia are directly answerable to President Omar al-Bashir and the intelligence service. “What we don’t know is how much control will be extended over the RSF [by the military commanders of coalition forces],” said Magnus Taylor of the International Crisis Group.

Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are believed to have provided Sudan with $2.2 billion in aid since 2015, as part of a political deal to “keep Khartoum afloat and in the coalition of Sunni states opposed to Iran”, said Taylor.

Although regular Sudanese troops are fighting and dying in Yemen, the RSF’s deployment is seen as a reward for the loyalty of their commander, Mohammed Hamdan ‘Hemmeti’, to al-Bashir. But that could turn sour if they become cannon fodder for the attack on Hodeida.
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What you might call an appropriate CV.
 
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