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...and Yemen!

Just for change I'm not posting something depressing on this thread, fantastic photos:

Living on a mountaintop

In villages perched high on a mountain in western Yemen, residents are a safe distance from a conflict raging through most of the country, but they endure a hardscrabble existence little changed from hundreds of years ago.

Long used to a livelihood without electricity or running water, they have felt little impact from the 18 months of civil war which have cut those essential services to many of Yemen's 28 million people

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On ReliefWeb Central Bank Crisis Risks Famine in Yemen

The Hadi regime's move on the Central Bank is liable to intensify economic problems and was widely opposed as it seen as making the repartition of the hastily glued together Yemen's more likely. The economic weapon is an obvious one; Sanaa now can't pay August's bills.

The butchers bill in this war compares to the first 18 months in Syria. Civilian casualties are a bit bigger proportion of the dead than in Syria at around 40%. As in Syria while the rebels certainly show an inclination to punitively attack civilians it's the regime sides air power capability that has killed most of them. One danger is the Prince Mo's war escalates towards taking Sanaa but remains essentially a bloody stalemate as Syria did. But there is a graver threat: Yemen unlike Syria started this civil war with a precarious food situation. Ironically often dependent on KSA generosity to keep its head above water. The population is generally far too poor to flee and geographically trapped. It's getting very close to a devastating famine that may put Syria's far better publicised suffering in the shade.
 
On Informed Comment Saudi Airstrikes kill Hundreds of Civilians, maim hundreds at Yemeni Funeral
By TeleSur | – –

Saudi Arabia and 10 of its Middle East allies began their military offensive in Yemen with over 100 warplanes and 150,000 troops.

Saudi-led warplanes killed at least 82 people when they struck mourners at a hall in the Yemeni capital Sanaa on Saturday, the acting health minister in the Houthi-run administration said, but the coalition denied any role in the incident.

[Update: The death toll has allegedly risen to between 150 and 750:
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Maybe they thought MSM outrage will stay focused on Aleppo and they are probably right.
 
They just don't give a fuck imo. They have the protection of the US and the UK in the UN and figure they can do pretty much as they please.
 
this is from Saba News so best enjoyed with a big pinch of salt:
http://www.saba.ye/upload/thumbs/161009125250-70320-0.jpg
'Army kills 25 Saudi soldiers
[09/October/2016]

Jizan, Oct. 9 (Saba) – At least 25 Saudi enemy soldiers were killed and dozens of others wounded in a unique military operation carried out by heroes of the army and popular forces deep in Saudi city of Jizan on Sunday, a military official told Saba.

The operation took place in Khuba region, during which the army and popular forces bombed two Saudi armored vehicles and killed all onboard in Karish area, whom they were counted for about 25, as well as destroying another vehicle in Karn area at the same Khuba region.'
 
is Saleh still in USA? I wonder how that's gonna wash with the people who took him in and protected him after he had his compound blown up.
Last I heard Saleh was committed to dying in Yemen. Basically the same people who took him in after the Arab Spring sidelined him and anointed his Defence Minister Hadi as a replacement. The strongman didn't take that well and neither did most of the army which remained loyal to their old master and facilitated the Houthis taking Sanaa. I doubt without Saleh they'd have moved on Aden. That was rumoured to be against Iranian advice and pretty stupid.

Given this mess which I would blame to large extent on Saleh and his decades of corrupt rule it might have been better if the Saudis had followed regional SOPs and killed the old bugger off.
 
Given this mess which I would blame to large extent on Saleh and his decades of corrupt rule it might have been better if the Saudis had followed regional SOPs and killed the old bugger off.
they didn't though, they took him in and cared for him when he almost had his hands blown off. At the time they had no reason to dispose of him, on the contrary - Riyadh was too scared of a successful Arab Spring in their own back yard and approved of Saleh's heavy crackdown...
Of course he would say he's committed to dying in Yemen. That's basic rhetoric for 'i'm not done yet'. I'd still like to know where he operates from atm.

btw - I still haven't seen any solid evidence for Iran actually sponsoring the Houthis.
 
they didn't though, they took him in and cared for him when he almost had his hands blown off. At the time they had no reason to dispose of him, on the contrary - Riyadh was too scared of a successful Arab Spring in their own back yard and approved of Saleh's heavy crackdown...
Of course he would say he's committed to dying in Yemen. That's basic rhetoric for 'i'm not done yet'. I'd still like to know where he operates from atm.

btw - I still haven't seen any solid evidence for Iran actually sponsoring the Houthis.
The old bastard has been cockily holding huge demos in Sanaa while overflown by Saudi jets for at least the last year. After Hadi fell the new management in the KSA ended up backing essentially the MB in Yemen that their predecessors during the Arab Spring had been terrified of against the Houthis and Saleh.

The devious Saleh spent his years in power hyping the threat of AQAP to milk the Americans and may even have fostered its early growth. He also had some Saudis convinced there was an IRGC Colonel hiding behind every khat bush and they paid him to savagely bomb his Houthi kin. All this and great deal of beak dipping allowed him to trouser about $40 billion and build up a formidable military that Saleh used to reverse the miserable outcome of the Arab Spring, another deeply corrupt status quo leader his subordinate Hadi, by ruthlessly siding with the part of the rising that probably detested his brutal rule the most: the Houthis. Despots are often twits like Bashar Assad or thugs like Saddam Hussein but not Saleh, truly a Machiavellian, the bugger is an evil genius a dancer on the heads of snakes in his own phrase.

There's plenty of evidence to suggest the Iranians have a relationship with the Houthis. Interdicted arms shipments, a few obviously Iranian arms in country, video of HA trainers at work, HA boasts of being able to escalate the war on the Saudi border, plenty of statements by Iranian official of support and a great deal of tactical Persian taunting, Houthi offers to distance themselves from Iran in talks and a wide borrowing of Khomeinist rhetoric. It's just does not look like a very significant relationship that has much impact on the Houthi war effort. As far as I can tell it's more like their small South American operations than their busy commitments in Lebanon, Syria and Iraq. What might be more described as a modest IRGC/HA capability building operation perhaps with a view to bigger things in a decade or so. The Iranians are patient plotters who plan decades ahead. I've seen no evidence of Iranian control let alone command over the Houthis who seem to have gone completely off reservation in taking Aden. There's a wikileaks thing from a few years ago showing cynical US diplomats in Yemen to privately regard Saudi fears of Iranian infiltration in Yemen as mostly paranoia. The UAE seems to hold similar skeptical views. In my view Iran's small military role in Yemen barely matters compared to the rather bizarre Houthi-Saleh rebel alliance that rules NW Yemen.

Except that the Houthis being puppets of the Iranians is very salient in Saudi domestic propaganda on the current wars which is both heavily sectarian and anti-Iranian. I'm not sure if senior Saudis really believe the hype but it sure does rally the easily confused masses to The Crown.

But then consider how our in some ways similar norm breaking war in Iraq was sold to the US GOP voter: it wasn't so much the WMD thing, Saddam was linked to 9-11 in an almost entirely spurious conspiracy theory that most Americans I know swallowed hook line and sinker. Making sense of a war that really didn't make much sense to the average angry Septic who might well have blamed the KSA. The Saudis have better reasons to be active in Yemen. A border region were hundreds of their citizens have been killed is a good one but the others are either comparatively complex or stink of a somewhat sordid string of Princely cock ups.
 
On Reuters U.S. Navy ship targeted in failed missile attack from Yemen: U.S.
...
The failed missile attack on the USS Mason began around 7 p.m. local time, when the ship detected two inbound missiles over a 60-minute period in the Red Sea off Yemen's coast, the U.S. military said.

"Both missiles impacted the water before reaching the ship," Pentagon spokesman Captain Jeff Davis said. "There were no injuries to our sailors and no damage to the ship."

Saudi Arabia and the United States blame Shi'ite Iran for supplying weapons to the Houthis. Tehran views the Houthis, who are from a Shi'ite sect, as the legitimate authority in Yemen but denies it supplies them with weapons.

A U.S. defense official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the first missile triggered counter-measures from the USS Mason. It was not immediately clear whether those defenses may have helped prevent a direct hit on the ship.

The USS Mason did not return fire, the official said, adding that the incident took place just north of the Bab al-Mandab strait off Yemen's southern coast.

Last week's attack on the UAE vessel also took place around the Bab al-Mandab strait, in what the UAE branded an "act of terrorism."
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The Houthis claimed that attack last week.
 
On Reuters Exclusive: As Saudis bombed Yemen, U.S. worried about legal blowback
...
U.S. government lawyers ultimately did not reach a conclusion on whether U.S. support for the campaign would make the United States a "co-belligerent" in the war under international law, four current and former officials said. That finding would have obligated Washington to investigate allegations of war crimes in Yemen and would have raised a legal risk that U.S. military personnel could be subject to prosecution, at least in theory.

For instance, one of the emails made a specific reference to a 2013 ruling from the war crimes trial of former Liberian president Charles Taylor that significantly widened the international legal definition of aiding and abetting such crimes.

The ruling found that "practical assistance, encouragement or moral support" is sufficient to determine liability for war crimes. Prosecutors do not have to prove a defendant participated in a specific crime, the U.N.-backed court found.

Ironically, the U.S. government already had submitted the Taylor ruling to a military commission at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, to bolster its case that Khalid Sheikh Mohammed and other al Qaeda detainees were complicit in the Sept 11, 2001 attacks.

The previously undisclosed material sheds light on the closed-door debate that shaped U.S. President Barack Obama’s response to what officials described as an agonizing foreign policy dilemma: how to allay Saudi concerns over a nuclear deal with Iran - Riyadh's arch-rival - without exacerbating a conflict in Yemen that has killed thousands.
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Perhaps a little too obsessed with compliance rather than moral conduct.

Article reckons last winter (i.e. rather tardily) the US compiled a No-Strike list of critical infrastructure, required to supply aid etc. In August the Saudis bombed one of the main bridges into Sanaa blocking aid. That's not an isolated incident, there is very little the Saudis have not bombed in Yemen. They were reported to be targeting even donkey carts.

The US has been criticised recently in Syria for taking out bridges vital to the civ pop. Aid travels along the same routes as military supply. Our man hunting precision air also kills a lot more civilians than we admit, that is inevitable, but the rate of civilian casualties compared to combatant ones is much higher in Yemen despite lots of the same precision weaponry. Actually a bit higher than Syria overall, ~40%, about the same rate as the much criticised Russian air campaign conducted most in the old skool manner with cheap dumb bombs. The rebel side in Yemen as in Syria also targets civilians but lacks the air power capability of the regime side and so accounts for a far smaller number.

The US military excuse that every time the Saudis have precision bombed civilian infrastructure it is down to poor intelligence and inexperience would be treated very cynically in the Pentagon PR if the Russians tried to use it in Syria. Both public gatherings and hospitals are a suspiciously frequent target in Yemen. When a combatant also warns off NGOs from working in enemy areas it's rather a declaration of intent.
 
On MEE Babies starved of milk as Yemen slides towards famine
...
Jens Laerke, a spokesperson for OCHA, the United Nations humanitarian office, told MEE that many areas of Yemen were now officially recognised as being in a state of “pre-famine”.

He said that the number of people are food insecure in the country had risen by 10 percent since June 2015 with seven million described as “severely food insecure”.

“We are highly concerned about these pre-famine conditions,” he said.

Laerke’s comments came after Stephen O'Brien, the head of OCHA, warned that the UN body had less than half of the resources it required and needed a further $880m to address Yemen’s worsening humanitarian crisis.

"More funding is urgently required for the scale-up of assistance across the country," O'Brien said. "The UN and our humanitarian partners are ready to do so, but donors need to support resources mobilisation efforts.”

But in Taiz, the prospect of international organisations and NGOs coming to the rescue of starving babies appears hopelessly remote.

“Taiz is not a safe place for those organisations to work, and even the few which do have their own priorities other than helping children,” Emad Ahmed, a social activist in Taiz city, told MEE.

Ahmed said it was difficult to get food aid to remote villages, and that even humanitarian aid which did reach Taiz city often ended up in the marketplace, rather than being distributed to those in most desperate need.
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The example given is Taiz under a protracted Houthi-Saleh siege where conditions are really terrible.

To compare with Syria there are 8.7 million people there are classed as food insecure. The difference is Yemen has what looks to be an escalating war which is much younger, it is much poorer to start with, it is geographically isolated, its trapped population is blockaded and the food situation seems to be worsening rapidly.

OBORNE: A calamity is unfolding in Yemen and it's time world woke up is worth reading.
...
When we put this to the Foreign Office, a spokeswoman told us that “the UK’s priority was to secure cross-regional agreement on a text that strengthens human rights in Yemen as we urge all parties to find a solution to the crisis.”

The then-British foreign secretary Philip Hammond (who last month became Chancellor of the Exchequer in the wake of the Brexit vote) has repeatedly refused to accept that the Saudis have done anything wrong.

In November 2015 he told parliament that “there is no evidence that IHL [international humanitarian law] has been breached.” The following February the foreign secretary went further still, stating that Britain had “assessed that there has not been a breach of IHL by the coalition,” an assertion which he repeated on three separate occasions.

Elwood has taken the defence of Saudi Arabia a stage further than Philip Hammond by claiming that the “media-savvy” Houthis may have fabricated evidence of Saudi air strikes.

He suggested to MPs that the Houthis “who are very media-savvy in such a situation, are using their own artillery pieces deliberately, targeting individual areas where the people are not loyal to them, to give the impression that there have been air attacks.”

Like Hammond, Elwood has claimed that Britain conducted its own assessment into breaches of IHL. However, the Foreign Office now claims that that these systematic misrepresentations were “mistakes”.

This assertion does not ring true.

The Foreign Office is famed for precision in its reporting and does not have a record of making “mistakes” of this kind. Bear in mind that false statements were not made once, but repeated on numerous occasions.

Britain has been protecting Saudi Arabia and its allies as it fights a murderous and illegal war in Yemen. Saudi is a longstanding British ally, a vital buyer of British arms and key producer of oil.

So there is every reason to assume that Britain has a strong reason to ignore or to underplay evidence that the Saudi-led coalition has been in breach of IHL, which gives very strong protections to civilians caught up in fighting, and bans the targeting of civilian institutions like schools and hospitals.
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I'm reminded of Biafra were famine was a tool of the oily side we quietly supported.
 
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