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...and Yemen!

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From FB
Activists just evicted from the Farnborough arms fair after unfurling a message to the new Prime Minister: #StopArmingSaudi
 
shamless and slightly pointless plug:

we're doing a festival to raise money for Gamil Ghanin, the Institute for Music and Arts in Aden. They've been hit hard by the war, doing great cultural work and need all the support they can get.
Some of the money will also go to musical projects in Sana'a.

This Friday from 8pm.
13 Bands, lots of DJs, talks, poetry, etc etc.
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Unfortunately it's in Munich, so I'm not expecting hordes of Urbanites, but a few of us will be there.

PEACE & NOISE #2 »Verstärker brennt. Dreizehn Bands und Publikum.«
 
I'm assuming that their collective consciences have been pricked now that plenty of money has been made.
 
It is wrong to assume and I very much doubt it. The truth will out, especially with the legal challenge which is being made. The sales will continue.
 

...
But the Pentagon, in some of its strongest language yet, also acknowledged concerns about the conflict, which has brought Yemen close to famine and cost more than $14 billion in damage to infrastructure and economic losses.

"Even as we assist the Saudis regarding their territorial integrity, it does not mean that we will refrain from expressing our concern about the war in Yemen and how it has been waged," Stump said.

"In our discussions with the Saudi-led coalition, we have pressed the need to minimize civilian casualties."
...
With the peace talks having failed, the Saleh-Houthi axis failed to surrender to Hadi on KSA terms, there's a danger this war escalates to a bloody attempt on Sana'a.

So far the level of bloodshed in Yemen resembles the first year in Syria before the call for Jihad. It's been compared in intensity to the NATO air war over Kosovo that also killed quite a lot of civilians. That at least was short, a few months, wars are better short. The bloodbath in Syria drags on because like the old Muhj war its been sustained by outside interventions on both sides. This is a common pattern in civil wars. As in Syria it's hard to see how the regime can conquer and hold all corners. In fact a full restoration in Yemen seems even more unlikely. Hadi has no base, he was anointed into power and unlike Assad fell and fled with much of the army siding with his old boss Saleh. He's not even safe in Aden. The GCC coalition has managed to push the invading Saleh-Houthi axis back up north but its a mess of potentially rival interests. The UAE and KSA have differing objectives. Commie Southern separatists don't see eye to eye with Muslim Brothers and other more extreme Salafi. The Houthis are unbowed and their tough people have a long record of holding their highlands against all comers. Saleh has made it pretty clear he'll die rather than give up. A swift military victory is very unlikely. This could intensify and go on for years and its only likely to grow a relatively slight IRGC involvement into something more dangerous.

I'd take these signals from the Pentagon as it distancing itself from a war that the KSA sprung on them with a few hours warning before it gets really nasty. Yemen has fallen into a de facto partition once again. The Princes would be wise to wind it down and conclude a separate peace with the rebels that secures the Saudi border lands from their regular attacks.
 
On The Cipher Brief A Persistent and Resilient Adversary: Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula

A meditation on AQAP's resilience going right back to the AQ bombing of the USS Cole in Aden in 2000 though its in 09 it got its current name. Salafi-Jihadi groups have proved very hard to squish surviving major strategic defeats and comprehensive decapitation. There is a school of thought that DC's somewhat blinkered pursuit of AQAP hasn't helped Yemen's stability.

You could also put it the other way round: Yemen's instability has greatly aided AQAP's expansion and should really be seen really the central problem. That AQAP succeeding is a symptom of state collapse. Locals in some parts of the South of Yemen had come to see AQAP during its last surge as a better provider of much needed humanitarian relief than the Yemeni state itself. Of course its far easier to convince US voters that the likes of AQAP need pruning back than attention to complex political root causes is worse the effort.

The current war in Yemen has often seemed to fly in the face of US concerns over AQAP with the GCC coalition clearly having other priorities. If they had a workable formula for stabilising Yemen they might actually have a correct approach, unfortunately they don't.
 
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