America vs. Everyone Else: Trade War 2025

[Yuwipi Woman]

When I go to work, I have quite a long commute with few choices for entertainment. So I listen to a farm report channel on the radio. For months they've been noting the strange happenings with soybean order and the Chinese. They've been placing smaller and smaller orders with US producers, and larger and larger orders with Brazil. They been doing this since the first Trump administration, deciding to get their soybeans somewhere else rather than deal with Trumpist policies. Over the last few months, they've continued this trend. This week, they placed the largest order for soybeans in months. My guess is that they're shoring up their stockpiles before tariffs take effect:

The recent purchases carry the risk that they could still be sailing to China as a major trade dispute with the US erupts after Donald Trump is inaugurated on Jan. 20. The Asian nation is the world’s largest soybean importer.

On Monday, the President-elect roiled markets after pledging to slap an additional 10% tariff on goods from China and 25% tariffs on all products from Mexico and Canada. Such a move would likely trigger similar retaliation.

China has recently stepped-up soybean purchases in Brazil, but it’s still picking up American cargoes for supplies that will be put in reserve. US soybeans can usually be stored for longer because of their low moisture content.

“Now, China is not going to source 100% of their soybeans from Brazil,” said Jake Hanley, senior portfolio strategist at Teucrium, a firm that owns exchange traded funds on agricultural commodities. “They’re going to want to keep their foot in the door in multiple places. The US is the second largest exporter in the world for soybeans, so I don’t see China going away.”

For now, China is still buying. American exporters sold 132,000 metric tons of soybeans to China in the 2024-25 marketing year. That’s on top of more than 5 million tons sold since the election, USDA data showed — an amount equal to about 5% of China’s annual imports.

China Keeps Buying US Soy in Surprise Move After Trump’s Win

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www.yahoo.com

In other news, China began dumping US Treasuries:

For China, this is the continuation of a trend. The country has reduced its Treasury holdings in six out of the last seven quarters.

Even more shocking, their total holdings have now dropped below $800 billion, a level not seen in 16 years. What’s driving this dramatic pullback by two of the world’s largest foreign creditors?

China’s Treasury dump tied to yuan defense

China’s aggressive Treasury sell-off is closely linked to its strategy to protect the yuan. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) has been on high alert ever since Donald Trump’s election victory, which came with renewed threats of tariffs.

The PBOC has been setting its daily reference rate stronger than 7.2 yuan per dollar, signaling its determination to support the currency despite market pressures.

On Tuesday, the central bank set the fixing at a one-week high, defying expectations that it might cave to market forces. Trump, now president-elect, has already vowed to impose a 10% tariff on Chinese goods, accusing Beijing of failing to fight fentanyl trafficking.

MSN

 

[farmerbarleymow]

It's definitely going to be a fun year with whatever shitty behaviour he gets up to. Not great for the rest of us of course.

 

[Skinny Ethel]

Eat furniture and mud. Theres always mud.

 

[moochedit]

Does seem daft introducing tarifs when food inflation is an issue (even fox saying so). I'm sure trump has some clever 8D chess here that i'm too stupid to understand

 

[Yuwipi Woman]

I went grocery shopping yesterday and I think they've already started raising prices. This is probably to have something to blame when they're just taking a larger profit. I'm sure my neighbors will blame Biden instead of Trump or Walmart.

 

[_Russ_]

Didnt the farmers overwhelmingly vote for Trump? ...twice

 

[JimW]

China restricting exports of metals needed in high tech manufacturing, like gallium and antimony. Apparently some US deposits but not mined yet.

 

[_Russ_]

Gonna be a shed load of fentynal addicts going cold turkey

 

[weltweit]

It won't work. Whatever is is intended to do, make America great again, or whatever, it will make the USA more inward looking, and increasingly isolated from the rest of the world. And it will probably increase domestic prices because supply will fall while demand will be stable.

 

[_Russ_]

It won't work. Whatever is is intended to do, make America great again, or whatever, it will make the USA more inward looking, and increasingly isolated from the rest of the world. And it will probably increase domestic prices because supply will fall while demand will be stable.

Its Trumps MO to go in guns blazing, thinking that when he waters it down a bit later it will seem like a good deal. Its an age old Business tactic but I agree that it probably wont work..... China knows the game well

 

[a_chap]

I'm sure it goes without saying but, if you can afford to, stockpile stockpile stockpile.

We did that when Russia invaded Ukraine and food prices started to rocket.

However, be prepared to stare at bags and bags of dried pasta for the next few years

I have a feeling that some pasta and tinned goods at the very back of a few cupboards in my kitchen are on the verge of sentience...

 

[Dogsauce]

It’s Trumps MO to go in guns blazing, thinking that when he waters it down a bit later it will seem like a good deal. It’s an age old Business tactic but I agree that it probably wont work..... China knows the game well

I predict the following:

1. Prices/inflation rise ahead of his presidency, shares drop etc in fear of a damaging trade war,

2. He rolls things back a bit (because it’s likely just a negotiating stance anyway);

3. Inflation/prices drop a bit as things aren’t quite so bad;

4. Trump brags about how bad inflation was at the end of Biden’s term and how he has fixed it.