Absolutely the only single GE 2017 results thread.

[chilango]

I think the first results (Newcastle, Sunderland) will understate the swing to Labour. IMO it'll be more significant in Tory seats in the South.

 

[Plumdaff]

Maybe this is a ruse to keep us all staying up

 

[mx wcfc]

It's the bit they've been saying about not trusting the SNP seat count in the exit poll that is intriguing. If the 22(?) lost SNP seats are losses to Lab or losses to the tories makes an enormous difference. they were saying its 50/50 in a lot of those seats.

 

[tony.c]

long night ahead AND I AM READY

I've been up since 5am, thought I'd listen to the exit poll then go to bed to face another Tory government nightmare tomorrow.
Now I'm going to stay up, I'll resist cracking open a bottle of wine until a few results come in though.

 

[SpookyFrank]

Lots of people suddenly looking around to see if they still have Northern Ireland's phone number.

 

[redsquirrel]

Remember the 2015 exit poll did underestimate the Tories

 

[aqua]

It's the bit they've been saying about not trusting the SNP seat count in the exit poll that is intriguing. If the 22(?) lost SNP seats are losses to Lab or losses to the tories makes an enormous difference. they were saying its 50/50 in a lot of those seats.

yeah I thought that too - that's a large number of seats to be unknown in this way (given it's only an exit poll anyway etc)

 

[Corax]

Corbyn should put a cheeky call in to the Palace now.

 

[8den]

Could be, but Brexit stuff would be fucked.

Also worth pointing out Loyalist paramilitaries "warned" people to vote DUP not alliance

 

[SpookyFrank]

Remember the 2015 exit poll did underestimate the Tories

Not by much though. Four seats in it IIRC.

 

[billy_bob]

Labour shouldn't have to form a government with the help of nationalists or greens. Again, this isn't a great victory for the left.

You need to take into account the starting point. 'Victory for the left'? I'd agree not really. But as a possible vindication of the idea that something other than neoliberal business as usual might actually be palatable to significant numbers of people, it could be quite a major stepping stone.

 

[YouSir]

Corbyn should put a cheeky call in to the Palace now.

Telling her Maj that come the red dawn she'll be in the basement facing the firing squad before hanging up?

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Remember the 2015 exit poll did underestimate the Tories

Different dynamic now, though. This one might be underestimating Labour.

 

[crossthebreeze]

My fucking stream keeps cutting out.

Novara? I'm having the same probs

 

[tony.c]

Struggling to breathe, if its right, Tories are weaker, will argue amongst themselves, Corbzn and the left much stronger, Blairites finished.

Nah, the blairites will say Labour would havr got a majority without corbyn.
They've already plotted their next move.

 

[wtfftw]

2am for Rudd apparently
What time could there be a "Portillo moment" in the 2017 general election?

 

[DotCommunist]

fallon yer sword you cuntsack

 

[redsquirrel]

Not by much though. Four seats in it IIRC.

Well the Guardian is quoting 22 but I don't remember it being that much. I don't think the exit poll will be miles out but it could be the diff between hung and small maj.

 

[emanymton]

Remember the 2015 exit poll did underestimate the Tories

Yeah, lets not get excited yet. Plus in all likelihood we will still have a conservative government. But hopefully a weaker one.

 

[kabbes]

Do you know, my own little piece of swing modelling doesn't look as if it was too far off.

I have a little model I've written that allows me to apply various uniform swings to each constituency and also allow a given % of previous non-voters to become Labour votes (proportional to the number of non-voters, not the total population). It makes the potential results look interesting.

330 Tory seats drop to 312 (18 swing to Labour) if you assume that 10% of previous non-voters are now willing to vote for labour.

At a rough guess, I then put in 33% swing from Green to Labour, 20% swing from Lib Dem to Labour, 50% swing from UKIP to Tory, 15% swing from UKIP to Labour and 15% swing from SNP to Tory

That pushes it back up to 329 Tory seats (-1). Labour end up with 246 (+14), but one of those is at the expense of the Green seat, which I don't think will happen. Lib Dem get wiped out from 8 to 2, which again sounds unrealistic. SNP drop from 56 to 51. Tory majority is the result.

It's all very sensitive. If we assume the same swings but 20% of previous non-voters become Labour supporters, the Tories lose 17 and Labour gain 36, with SNP + Labour exactly equal to Tory.

The engagement of previous non-voters is the key, which is exactly the point a lot of us were making when Corbyn became leader and was accused of being unelectable. There are a lot of people out there that can swing it, if they can just be engaged.

I've attached the spreadsheet in a zip in case you want to play with it. I've ordered the constituencies by Labour's closest Tory targets, which makes it interesting.

The "20% of previous non-voters become voters" scenario had the Tories losing 17 and Labour gaining 36. That's very close to the exit polling.

 

[03gills]

Robert Peston currently having a breakdown over on ITV.

 

[mx wcfc]

I cant find a breakdown of the "Others" - how many of those are right wing unionists?

 

[Jeff Robinson]

Are we expecting libcon round two?

 

[Pickman's model]

Struggling to breathe, if its right, Tories are weaker, will argue amongst themselves, Corbzn and the left much stronger, Blairites finished.

Step away from the computer and get your breath under control.

 

[J Ed]

Corbyn should put a cheeky call in to the Palace now.

'You've got 24 hours to pack your bags...'

 

[emanymton]

Novara? I'm having the same probs

Catchup, I just jave to refresh the page, but it is still annoying.

 

[YouSir]

Nah, the blairites will say Labour would havr got a majority without corbyn.
They've already plotted their next move.

Aye, they'll be lurking in the shadows now, waiting for the moment where they can bitch as talking heads later on tonight. Won't do them much good if things play out mind.

 

[Pickman's model]

I cant find a breakdown of the "Others" - how many of those are right wing unionists?

At least 4 sf, maybe a couple of sdlp

 

[billy_bob]

Said it on the now-closed thread - isn't Kuenssburg's mardy face a fucking joy...

 

[treelover]

I do recall the 1992 exit poll though

but they have become much more accurate