Will you vote for independence?

[danny la rouge]

Iain Macwhirter, journalist and broadcaster, from his blog:

http://iainmacwhirter.wordpress.com/2014/02/18/whos-afraid-of-plan-b/

It was the defining moment in referendum campaign; an event that will resonate through history; a milestone in Scotland’s relations with the rest of the UK. A Tory chancellor, George Osborne, riding into town, laying down the law, and then riding out again without even giving any TV interviews made even many unionists feel they had been slapped in the face.

He goes on to say the SNP should say its Plan B is to “shadow” sterling – use the pound without a formal monetary union. (There is no doubt that this is indeed the SNP's plan B. They just don't want to say so).

Forget the jargon about ‘lender of last resort’, fiscal sovereignty, optimal currency zones. What matters to voters is that they won’t have to change currency at the border. George Osborne could come back and try to reject parity, but it would be silly. Even if it were possible it would undermine trade with Britain’s main trading partner. His complaint about the Bank of England underpinning the Scottish currency would no longer apply. It would be clear who was being unreasonable.

 

[butchersapron]

I don't think the Osborne intervention was that bad for no voters. In immediate terms - yeah posh english bloke being arrogant - in medium-long term, fuck maybe it will change stuff too much, and for not that much, is it worth it?

 

[danny la rouge]

I don't think the Osborne intervention was that bad for no voters. In immediate terms - yeah posh english bloke being arrogant - in medium-long term, fuck maybe it will change stuff too much, and for not that much, is it worth it?

As I said up the thread, I'd like to see the first opinion polls after the Osborne intervention, and then compare them with later polls once it's had time to settle.

 

[butchersapron]

As I said up the thread, I'd like to see the first opinion polls after the Osborne intervention, and then compare them with later polls once it's had time to settle.

Yep - and slightly longer too. I was making more the point that what would on first view seems to be incompetence may actually be political cunning. No one should ever underestimate the tories in anything.

 

[danny la rouge]

Those wily Eton boys.

 

[butchersapron]

Those wily Eton boys.

It's quite clever- for those who want change it's irrelevant, but for those who aren't that bothered, the don't knows (this is who will decide it), it may be enough to think, christ what a pain in the arse - not having that, rather than righteous indignation. The more i think about it the better a move it is.

 

[danny la rouge]

Yes, maybe so.

 

[butchersapron]

Yes, maybe so.

I do hope that you're twiddling your beard as you posted that.

 

[danny la rouge]

I actually was.

 

[gosub]

Angus Roxburgh (former BBC Brussels correspondent) in the Guardian:

With seven months to go to the Scottish referendum, the scaremongering has begun
It is simply not true that an independent Scotland would get no place in the EU or a currency union. We need facts not scare tactics

http://www.theguardian.com/commenti...tish-referendum-independent-scaremongering-eu

We need facts not scare tatics , a column of opinion to follow....

 

[littlebabyjesus]

We need facts not scare tatics , a column of opinion to follow....

There are no facts in this particular case, though, except the fact that the EU makes exceptions to its own rules as and when it suits. The idea that Scotland would be frozen out of the EU is ludicrous, tbh.

 

[Quartz]

Balls, Osborne and wee Alexander.

As I said, what 'No' camp?

Anyway, I much enjoyed your long post.

For my own part, it seems to me that Salmond (and the higher echelons of the SNP) at the outset when they wrote the manifesto, didn't really want independence, just more power - Devo Max, I recall them calling it - but now he sees a chance for full independence and even more power. He wanted more power to claim the glory when things go right, and someone to blame when things go wrong. The issue of the currency union is an example of this.

I cannot agree with you about the choosing of the date, BTW. The referendum is quite explicitly set to be on the 700th anniversary of Bannockburn.

People who intend voting for independence 'to get rid of the Tories' are deluding themselves, IMO. Like you, I think it's a fallacy. People need to be looking not just at Right Now but 10 and 20 and 50 years ahead.

The 'West Lothian question' is really a red herring. Keep the constituency sizes the same and the MP can represent the same constituency and vote on their behalf in each of the Scottish, Welsh, English, NI, and UK parliaments.

 

[gosub]

There are no facts in this particular case, though, except the fact that the EU makes exceptions to its own rules as and when it suits. The idea that Scotland would be frozen out of the EU is ludicrous, tbh.

They have a new treaty coming up effectively building a EUnited States of EUro, last thing they would want is another non Eurozone EU member with the ability to veto the glorious project...Get out, wait your turn and come back when its a fait accompli

 

[Belushi]

While I've no doubt Scotland will be allowed to join the EU if it wants, I suspect Brussels will insist on Euro and Schengen area membership as it does any other applicant.

 

[danny la rouge]

The 'West Lothian question' is really a red herring. Keep the constituency sizes the same and the MP can represent the same constituency and vote on their behalf in each of the Scottish, Welsh, English, NI, and UK parliaments.

I'm not sure I follow. A federal UK, but with unitary representatives doubling in the federal Parliaments and Westminster?

 

[Quartz]

I'm not sure I follow. A federal UK, but with unitary representatives doubling in the federal Parliaments and Westminster?

That's one possibility, but I was being more general. As long as the constituencies are the same, then the representative can represent in whichever body is relevant.

 

[DotCommunist]

so after unifying us under Jimmy the first of england the wily scots seek to slip away and leave the rest of us ridden with a parasitic aristo class? This is intolerable. Lets just liquidate them all. Together. United we stand, divided we fall. Lets not quarrel anymore. You get rid of your leaders, then give us a hand getting rid of ors and then we can have teacake on the Embankment while we watch parliament burn. You can't leave us you bastards we need you *weeping, wailing*

 

[geminisnake]

The Tories hoped to limit that effect by having Ed Balls and Danny Alexander say they agreed. I’m not so sure it helped.

Bless their stupid cotton socks! The Lib Dems are dead up here after getting into bed with the Tories and the Labour vote is at an all time low so nah, I don't see it helping

 

[butchersapron]

Bless their stupid cotton socks! The Lib Dems are dead up here after getting into bed with the Tories and the Labour vote is at an all time low so nah, I don't see it helping

The lib-dems are at pretty much the same level as elsewhere - is the labour vote at an all time low? Pretty serious question that demands an answer. There was a swing to labour in scotland in the last general election.

 

[Quartz]

Independence debate from Kelso on BBC2 now. Not BBC2 HD. The moderator so far is being blatantly biased to the SNP.

 

[Quartz]

Patrick Harvey was a member of the panel of the debate I attended in Inverness.

 

[geminisnake]

Independence debate from Kelso on BBC2 now. Not BBC2 HD. The moderator so far is being blatantly biased to the SNP.

That'll be a first!

 

[Quartz]

The Yes camp are vociferous in their applause.

 

[Quartz]

SNP guy going the hate / scare route on pensions.

 

[Quartz]

He's also playing divide and conquer.

 

[Quartz]

Harvey isn't making concrete suggestions.

 

[Quartz]

'Change demographics' indeed. And he's left a hostage to fortune by limiting himself to 2030 when he should be looking farther ahead. Numpties didn't pick him up on it.

 

[Quartz]

SNP are rattled on border question. Trying to smoothly dismiss it and failing.

 

[redsquirrel]

Snip

Excellent summary Danny.

Tell me to mind my own business if you want but when the thread started IIRC you were still debating about whether to vote yes or just to abstain. Now you seem to be leaning to voting yes, just wondered what made you come down that side of the fence?

 

[butchersapron]

Quartz. And that guff.