A thought of the famous American evqlutionist G. Ledyard Stebbins
is illuminating at this point. He isn't specifically concerned with jerky
evolution, but is just seeking to dramatize the speed with which
evolutionary change can happen, when seen against the timescale of
available geological time. He imagines a species of animal, of about the
size of a mouse. He then supposes that natural selection starts to
favour an increase in body size, but only very very slightly. Perhaps
larger males enjoy a slight advantage in the competition for females. At
any time, males of average size are slightly less successful than males
that are a tiny bit bigger than average. Stebbins put an exact figure on
the mathematical advantage enjoyed by larger individuals in his hypothetical
example. He set it at a value so very very tiny that it
wouldn't be measurable by human observers. And the rate of evolutionary
change that it brings about is consequently so slow that it
wouldn't be noticed during an ordinary human lifetime. As far as the
scientist studying evolution on the ground is concerned, then, these
animals are not evolving at all. Nevertheless they are evolving, very
slowly at a rate given by Stebbins's mathematical assumption, and,
even at this slow rate, they would eventually reach the size of
elephants. How long would this take? Obviously a long time by human
standards, but human standards aren't relevant. We are talking about
geological time. Stebbins calculates that at his assumed very slow rate
of evolution, it would take about 12,000 generations for the animals to
evolve from an average weight of 40 grams (mouse size) to an average
weight of over 6,000,000 grams (elephant size). Assuming a generationtime
of 5 years, which is longer than that of a mouse but shorter than
that of an elephant, 12,000 generations would occupy about 60,000
years. 60,000 years is too short to be measured by ordinary geological
methods of dating the fossil record. As Stebbins says, 'The origin of a
new kind of animal in 100,000 years or less is regarded by paleontologists
as "sudden" or "instantaneous".'