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The Islamic state

ISIS long term viability continues to look bleak given the conditions in areas it controls.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world...092-11e4-b936-f3afab0155a7_story.html?hpid=z1
I read that when it was linked to earlier, and then another article which suggested that the infrastructure workers were more likely to have had the money to fuck right off out of it (as you would if you had the money to so). But I'm not sure who to believe, on the one hand we are told daesh run makeshift refineries to sell the black gold on the grey market, that they are minting currency, running highly lucrative protection and kidnapping rackets. On the other, reports say they are losing it militarily and in any kind of statehood.
 
I read that when it was linked to earlier, and then another article which suggested that the infrastructure workers were more likely to have had the money to fuck right off out of it (as you would if you had the money to so). But I'm not sure who to believe, on the one hand we are told daesh run makeshift refineries to sell the black gold on the grey market, that they are minting currency, running highly lucrative protection and kidnapping rackets. On the other, reports say they are losing it militarily and in any kind of statehood.

Politics and economics. Not the same thing. Which of the stuff beyond the interpretation have you provided. None. Go out do some work. Stop whining.
 
You can piss off with the stop whining, I'm sick and I'm sick of being sick and I'm doing everything I can to sort myself out.

but I take your point on the politics/economics front. It's likely-more than- that the various funding doesn't go to anything other than wages for fighters, equipment and non civil means. plus pockets.
 
You can piss off with the stop whining, I'm sick and I'm sick of being sick and I'm doing everything I can to sort myself out.

but I take your point on the politics/economics front. It's likely-more than- that the various funding doesn't go to anything other than wages for fighters, equipment and non civil means. plus pockets.

Aye, I don't doubt there has been more than one 'numbered account' set up for when the 'caliphate' goes tits up, and it will, but the fallout will be painful and widespread.
 
Assad signals change of policy, has used 45 airdropped barrel bombs over weekend in ISIS region,notably against civillian areas rather than frontline positions heavy civillian casualties expected.
 
Assad signals change of policy, has used 45 airdropped barrel bombs over weekend in ISIS region,notably against civillian areas rather than frontline positions heavy civillian casualties expected.

Linked to this, maybe? Numerous sources reporting Assad open to Moscow-based peace talks with opposition - barrel bombs signifying IS as the common enemy?

Suicide attack on a PYD roadblock in rural Afrin - does anyone apart from IS have form for using these kind of car bombs? Whether it's the opening salvo of an attack on Afrin, revenge for Sinjar & Kobane, or general murderous mayhem, it's gonna cause massive problems for the Canton if they have to treat every farmer & refugee as a potential threat.
 
Linked to this, maybe? Numerous sources reporting Assad open to Moscow-based peace talks with opposition - barrel bombs signifying IS as the common enemy?

My initial thoughts are that its a signal that as far as Assad is concerned ISIS is a spent force and the law of diminishing returns means he would be considering consolidating territorial gains by rolling up ISIS before Sunni Rebels, The Kurds and Al Nusra fill the vacuum, theres a couple of flaws in that analysis, firstly no news as of last night of major ground offensive, secondly target designation seems to be of a punitive nature rather than strategic, random dropping of unguided low tech munitions into civilian areas when he has access to guided missiles?

As for the Russian/Turkish brokered ceasefire I am deeply sceptical for two reasons firstly during the last Ceasefire Assad actually increased artillery shelling of the civillian districts. Secondly a let up in the American/coallition campain would give ISIS time to regroup and reinforce at a time when they are on the ropes facing mass desertions ect. Given that his policy so far has been to use ISIS as a proxy cum quasi buffer against other opposition forces, this latest step up in air assaults that will have negligible effect on ISIS military assets, it could be an attempt at persuading the Russians to put pressure on the Americans to agree to a ceasefire.Prima face,as you say signifying IS as a common enemy
 
From the YPJ Facebook page

INSIDE KOBANE" is a documentary film we produced for BBC. It gives a glimps of the way Kurdish journalist gather news under constant shelling and snipers. Along the way they introduce us to women and men who defend the city aganist ISIS. The broadcast starts on BBC World TV on January 2nd - Jan. 4th. Here are the time slots, All is GMT, London time: First broadcast is : 23:30 GMT /Fri 2 JanCamera and Director: Zanyar Omrani
BBC Edit-Pcroducer: Jiyar Gol
 
Can't imagine the people you need to make shit work are going to hang around in is country especially if they are married or have daughters:( let alone if they are female.
The taliban didnt give a shit if afganistan ended up in the stone age but IS need cash from oil and oil infrastructure doesnt respond well to prayer:(
Even mercenaries are reluctant to work for religious loonies that mght cut your head off.
 
Read the loonies executed couple hundred johnny foreigners who joined 'em and wanted to go back home to mommy and daddy. LOL. :D
 
Heard about that. Turns out it's the typotastic Indie, quoting the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.

Who they?

Exiles, going by the look of their website... but what exiles?

Done good collation and translation work. Not shills. I queried their rate of volunteers to ISIS early 2014 - they were proven to be correct and it firmed up their local info/contacts/knowledge for me. Temp aligning (in facts) with other interests is a constant of this, almost a condition.
 
Think your critical scepticism is the correct order of the day here.

You're right - late night, feeding the baby - I should have waited twelve hours till the giddy spike of twitter activity had faded, & been clearer that I was relaying speculation, not news. Despite the single, unverifiable source, a couple of international news sites ran the story as fact, & it gathered enough momentum to warrant a US denial. Latest rumour is that it was a Jordanian attempt to free their pilot, but the only source for this so far is the odd, Israel-based Arabic & English news site Al Marsda News. More noise than signal (& I'm not helping).
 
You're right - late night, feeding the baby - I should have waited twelve hours till the giddy spike of twitter activity had faded, & been clearer that I was relaying speculation, not news. Despite the single, unverifiable source, a couple of international news sites ran the story as fact, & it gathered enough momentum to warrant a US denial. Latest rumour is that it was a Jordanian attempt to free their pilot, but the only source for this so far is the odd, Israel-based Arabic & English news site Al Marsda News. More noise than signal (& I'm not helping).

Don't be too hard on yourself, overall your contributions to the thread have been more than useful, occasionally we all drop a bollock.
 
I posted a link to a vid that, on looking back, could never be form Kobani. I totally let my hopes and fears direct me on that.

Here's a end of year look back/forward from someone whose is generally clued up, without being on the side of light entirely. And looking like Danny Alexander. Worth a quick read.

Syria Year-End Predictions and Analysis – by Joshua Landis


The great powers are determined to support their Syrian proxies enough that they will not lose, but not enough to win. This means prolonged struggle. Most regional civil wars have come to an end only with foreign intervention. Lebanon and Iraq had foreign powers disarm militias in order to facilitate state-building and political compromise. No foreign power is likely to intervene in Syria to disarm radicals or nurse moderates back into the political center.

Not keen on great powers style analysis but this stuff needs be borne in mind here - no way around it.
 
I posted a link to a vid that, on looking back, could never be form Kobani. I totally let my hopes and fears direct me on that.

Here's a end of year look back/forward from someone whose is generally clued up, without being on the side of light entirely. And looking like Danny Alexander. Worth a quick read.

Syria Year-End Predictions and Analysis – by Joshua Landis



Not keen on great powers style analysis but this stuff needs be borne in mind here - no way around it.

Some interesting comments at the end of the piece as well.
 
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wor...-churches-and-destroyed-Christian-graves.html

The perpetrators had shown both purpose and glee in their destruction of Christian sites in this ancient Armenian town. Statues were riddled with bullets and Islamist slogans were scrawled across the walls of homes and shops.

Once a haven from Syria’s civil war, nestled in the hills of Latakia province, Kessab gained international fame when it was captured by rebels last spring in a surprise offensive that forced the town’s 2,500 Armenian Christians to flee.

Turkey was widely accused of helping the insurgents to capture Kessab, despite the participation in the attack of Jabhat al-Nusra, an affiliate of al-Qaeda.

But the Syrian armed forces took back the town in June after it had endured three months of rebel occupation. The Telegraph travelled to the area on a facility trip with the Syrian regime to witness the aftermath of the battle.

The desecration of Kessab’s churches contradicts the claims of Syrian rebels that their fighters are non-sectarian protectors of Christian residents and heritage.

The evidence also fails to support counter-claims by pro-government groups that Armenian Christians were “massacred” during the rebel offensive.

When this assault began last year, Turkey’s then prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, was facing a general election and his rebel allies in Syria were losing ground to regime forces. The offensive on Kessab was intended to bolster both the insurgents and their Turkish backers.

During weeks of planning before the assault, rebel fighters were given strict orders to use the offensive to show themselves as “moderate Muslims” and natural allies of the West.

Kessab is protected by a mountain range, acting as a natural fortress against invasion, and the Turkish border almost surrounds the town. It was only when Turkish troops allowed free movement across the frontier that the rebels were able to storm and capture Kessab.

In the first hours, all appeared to be going according to plan. Insurgents, including those from the Islamist group Ahrar al-Sham, posed for pictures showing them protecting churches and talking gently to local people.

About 30 Armenians, who had been too elderly or frail to escape the offensive, were placed on minibuses and driven to Turkey, where they were given a warm reception that was covered in minute detail by state television.

Ignoring the participation of Islamist extremists in the offensive - including a large number of foreign jihadists - Ahmed Jarba, the head of the Syrian National Coalition, travelled to Kessab and claimed a victory.

But immediately after the media spotlight fell away, residents of Kessab told the Telegraph that the desecration began.

“They took photographs to show they were looking after the churches, and then set them alight,” said Father Miron Avedissian, priest of the Armenian Apostolic church that was largely destroyed. “It all still happened in the first day.”
 
His videos are so surreal, so depressing, almost like something out of Black Mirror

Jesus - that's possibly the weirdest yet - Cantlie de-Islamified, beard shaved, in Western garms, shaking a black-comedy fist at the eye in the sky, delivering fluid & (mostly) unscripted reportage while driving a car & messing about on a bike. He seems more relaxed, as if he thinks there's a chance he might just pull this off & survive. It's interesting that his notebook was blurred in post-production - no 'minister exposes papers while walking to Downing Street' cock-ups for IS.

Could this be part of a new line? After first proving their military might, they now highlight the 'normality' of Mosul, the legitimate viability of IS governance with its markets & hospitals & cops, and get the moderates in the Caliphate to a negotiating table as the Sunni voice if/when Iraq gets divided into Kurdish/Sunni/Shia zones?
 
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