The Islamic state
- Thread starter brogdale
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butchersapron
Bring back hanging
On the sectarian dynamics being driven by Shiite militias:
http://www.middleeasteye.net/columns/shiite-militias-much-threat-islamic-state-195925312
http://www.middleeasteye.net/columns/shiite-militias-much-threat-islamic-state-195925312
Patteran
A nowadays excuse
Some analysis of the Coalition's lack of analysis & strategy from Italian MEP Emma Bonino
http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/politics/2014/11/httpassafircomarticle1381138.html#
And an interesting little story from Kobane that some of the FSA who arrived last week have fallen out & cleared off. If it's true, it's interesting that they left/were allowed to leave without the guns being pulled out, despite the possible consequences of future potential enemies driving back into either Turkey or IS territory with inside knowledge of Kobane's defences.
http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/politics/2014/11/httpassafircomarticle1381138.html#
And an interesting little story from Kobane that some of the FSA who arrived last week have fallen out & cleared off. If it's true, it's interesting that they left/were allowed to leave without the guns being pulled out, despite the possible consequences of future potential enemies driving back into either Turkey or IS territory with inside knowledge of Kobane's defences.
coley
Well-Known Member
Depressing reading, but a decent overview, does Obama and his advisors have a clue?
http://www.middleeasteye.net/essays/what-could-possibly-go-wrong-war-1961277135
http://www.middleeasteye.net/essays/what-could-possibly-go-wrong-war-1961277135
kebabking
Not a Girly Swot, but I like them....
decent in that the author has some understanding of the myriad problems and pitfalls of the current US policy, but let down somewhat by the fact that the author is so consumed by his beef with the US Government (he's also selling a book on the subject..
) that he doesn't provide other options that he thinks will work better, and in pointing out this or that problem, risk or pitfall, he always concludes that it is caused, soley, by US ignorance/cowardice/whatever, and that in every case the other actors have played a blinder, but with no moral judgement made about what they've done.its like reading a post-mortem on your marriage written by your ex-wife - its not exactly balanced...
coley
Well-Known Member
decent in that the author has some understanding of the myriad problems and pitfalls of the current US policy, but let down somewhat by the fact that the author is so consumed by his beef with the US Government (he's also selling a book on the subject..
its like reading a post-mortem on your marriage written by your ex-wife - its not exactly balanced...
Fair point, but it does give an overall view of who's doing what to whom, like I said earlier, keeping track of who the 'good guys' are is becoming impossible, the number of factions and their shifting alliances?
One thing is becoming clear, given the amount of sophisticated US weaponry that has fallen into the hands of the IS, the Islamists are very clever at confusing the US state department.
But to return to your earlier point, who does have a solution? Bagdad seems to think it can go its same old merry way promoting a Bathist/Shia stronghold at the expense of the Sunnis while expecting said Sunnis to rise up against IS ? When needed to do so?
IMO,Coalition support, limited as it is, should be supporting an alliance of those Kurds actively opposing IS and the reliable elements of the Anti Assad opposition, though I wish them luck in identifying them!
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kebabking
Not a Girly Swot, but I like them....
i do - if the states of the region were stable, liberal (small 'l'), democratic and pluralist then groups like IS would have no traction, and ethnic/national/religous groups who found themselves living on the wrong side of an international border wouldn't feel sufficiently under threat that they needed to undertake armed rebellion.
quite how you get to that end state is another matter, but doubt any process devised to bring it about would be cheap, quick, or clean.
coley
Well-Known Member
How long did it take and how many wars did it take for Europe to arrive at its relatively stable state?
(I'm not including Eastern Europe in the above)
kebabking
Not a Girly Swot, but I like them....
all of human history - with the current state more to do with an outside threat than internal change, and therefore temporary?
perhaps then we should not - in our deluded arrogance - believe that either we can come up with, or indeed that there is, a solution to the problems of the ME, and that we should just accept that everything is firefighting, that this weeks friend will be next weeks enemy, and that this weeks enemy might be next weeks friend, that there will be no lasting achievements over muddling through each problem in order to face the next?
I know a few people who work at the Balti King including the manager from when I worked in the Chinese. They were constantly challenging us to poker games. - http://www.itv.com/news/westcountry/story/2014-11-04/man-arrested-on-suspicion-of-terror-offence/
coley
Well-Known Member
Fusion power and electric cars would sort it out pdq
Though joking apart, it seems anyone we support is quickly distrusted by the other parties,so mebbes we should content our selves with humanitarian aid and protected enclaves?
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
Lots of little and not so little provocations seem to be going on right now - kurdish bloke having ear cut off by turkish soldiers at efrin border, HDP politician having throat slashed in Ankara (providing both happened of course).
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
Why ask?
Good thread now becomes full of shit. Or, maybe start a ISIS and Nusra are really jewish catspaws thread.
DotCommunist
So many particulars. So many questions.
I think it was in a brecher article but I recall it saying israel is largely unconcerned with the sunni militias but rather see shia hezbollah as the real threat.
Harald Doornbos: "Info from #Kobane suggests Kurds still not strong enough to push #IS out. Heavy weapons Peshmerga vulnerable to IS-attacks. Front unchanged."
link
I suppose in terms of clearing out IS the YPG will face some of the same problems that IS faced when initially trying to take the city.
link
I suppose in terms of clearing out IS the YPG will face some of the same problems that IS faced when initially trying to take the city.
Why not answer the question and try being less of a cunt.
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
Why? I know your game already. What other people haven't attacked israel? Are you going to now suggest this is evidence of there being set up and funded by Israel?
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
Possibly, defended built-in positions can get hit by airstrikes - attempts at on the ground encirclement seem to be the plan. Remember, cut off YPG/YPJ fighters behind ISIS lines around kobani.
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
Why not answer my leading question based on a dodgy premise? Because it's a leading question based on a dodgy premise.
Away and Israel somewhere else.
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Lemon Eddy
Disliked by dwyer
No. And your inference is?
Yes it looks like that. I think you posted this twitter account on the thread earlier, they put up a map showing where the YPG are operating around Kobani I thought is quite useful:
I've seen quite a lot of reports of air strikes on IS convoys heading for the city, hopefully this YPG/FSA/Peshmerga activity outside of it will be putting even more pressure on those already inside.
coley
Well-Known Member
If YPG are the green shaded area then IS looks to be in a bit of a squeeze? Pity there is no scale.Yes it looks like that. I think you posted this twitter account on the thread earlier, they put up a map showing where the YPG are operating around Kobani I thought is quite useful:
I've seen quite a lot of reports of air strikes on IS convoys heading for the city, hopefully this YPG/FSA/Peshmerga activity outside of it will be putting even more pressure on those already inside.
hopefully it will start to choke off IS in Kobani from supplies and reinforcements. bearing in mind though that the green area isn't controlled by the ypg but where they are active. the twitter user that posted it gave some more details as well in a series of tweets which I'll quote as they might be of interest:
"[1] This is a map of YPG's operational areas in territory claimed by #ISIS in & around the city of #Kobane."
"[2] The southern line from Susan to Karacox is drawn with caution & is a rough estimate. The area is most likely bulging further south."
"[3] YPG is backed by its allies (Euphrates Volcano & Peshmerga) in the southwestern front. Ops in S & SE are carried out exclusively by YPG."
"[4] In the south & southeast, YPG is carrying out mainly hit&run attacks, ambushing IS supply lines & patrols."
"[5] The ops in the southwestern front are of mixed types. YPG & Euphrates Volcano carry out both guerrilla & conventional attacks."
"[6] In the southwest, Peshmerga is backing up YPG & EV's conventional ops w/ their heavy weapons."
"[7] The main purpose of this map is to show the contested areas in #Kobane's vicinity where #ISIS mobility is now limited."
link
Mr Moose
What the hell are we supposed to tell the kids?
Bit of a slog to get there from any current stronghold and then they'd all die.
They are fucking barmy, but not in that respect.
It's a 'no' from me.
kebabking
Not a Girly Swot, but I like them....
Al-Nusra (AQ affiliate and sometime enemy, but now proclaimed friend of IS..) have had the occasional tiff with the Israeli's on the Syrian-Israel border, but they are actually fighting the Syrians, and on some occasions the UNDOF peacekeeping mission there, over control of the border. the Israeli's get stuck in with some vigour, and it very much looks like they and the Syrian Army have a working arrangement on the issue.
SpookyFrank
A cheap source of teeth for aquarium gravel
The area shown on the map is about 20km from east to west.
Patteran
A nowadays excuse
"There is no commercial activity in the city. The only business still open is the bakery. The bread produced here is distributed free among the people."
Interesting piece here from Kurdish journalist & Rojava Report contributor Ersin Caksu for the BBC, about daily life for the civilians trapped in Kobani.
Interesting piece here from Kurdish journalist & Rojava Report contributor Ersin Caksu for the BBC, about daily life for the civilians trapped in Kobani.
That's an excellent article.
I'm surprised that you'd agree with it though. It's sympathetic to Turkey, strongly opposes US intervention and calls the Peshmerga "a big part of the current problem."
All of which is fine by me. But it contradicts everything you've previously said on this thread.
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