The Islamic state

[frogwoman]

Aaron Zelin has a podcast this week interviewing one of the experts on Che chnya about Chechen foreign fighters and the demise of the Caucasus Emirate and its replacement by ISIS.

 

[phildwyer]

Not really. IS have the bodies, and a bit of experience of set-piece urban warfare, plus wider experience of murdering captives. In terms of their victories though, they've mostly accumulated wins by either saturating a locale with personnel, and then not giving a fuck about how many die, or using fear to scare the shit out of green troops and/or conscripts. They're not exactly well-trained, and they've repeatedly shown that apart from small-unit tactics, they're pretty much a rabble.

Complete and utter bollocks. ISIS's fighting strength comes from ex-army Baathists--hardly an untrained rabble by anyone's standards.

 

[J Ed]

US blocks attempts by Arab allies to fly heavy weapons directly to Kurds to fight Islamic State

The United States has blocked attempts by its Middle East allies to fly heavy weapons directly to the Kurds fighting Islamic State jihadists in Iraq, The Telegraph has learnt.

...

They now say they are willing to “go it alone” in supplying heavy weapons to the Kurds, even if means defying the Iraqi authorities and their American backers, who demand all weapons be channelled through Baghdad.

Odd story, you would think that the US would be happy enough to arm the KRG but it's also interesting that the countries that I suspect they are talking about seem to see the KRG as an effective bulwark against Iranian influence.

 

[butchersapron]

Aaron Zelin has a podcast this week interviewing one of the experts on Che chnya about Chechen foreign fighters and the demise of the Caucasus Emirate and its replacement by ISIS.

Is that Joanna Paraszczuk by any chance?

 

[frogwoman]

Is that Joanna Paraszczuk by any chance?

Yup. Orweb doesn't work very well on my phone, any chance you can post a link as I don't want a search for a site called 'jihadology' in my history!

 

[butchersapron]

She really knows her stuff.

Here's the jihadology link - podcast sub links a little scroll down

 

[kebabking]

US blocks attempts by Arab allies to fly heavy weapons directly to Kurds to fight Islamic State



Odd story, you would think that the US would be happy enough to arm the KRG but it's also interesting that the countries that I suspect they are talking about seem to see the KRG as an effective bulwark against Iranian influence.

depends i suppose on how much is the US preference, and how much is what it thinks it can get passed Baghdad and without Turkey throwing a wobbler.

it seems pretty obvious that Turkey is looking for an excuse - however see-through - to move against Kurdish power within Iraq and Syria, and i still don't get any feeling that Baghdad is wildly keen on the whole concept of the KRG, and so has no intention, if it can help it, of seeing that polity become both more powerful and more entrenched. perhaps the US, operating as 'ringmaster' in the somewhat loose coalition of interests fighting IS, is just accepting the political reality of dealing with its less than ideal allies.

 

[butchersapron]

damn you, I was just coming here to post that! Wonder who on the 'left' still supports CAGE?

More:

 

[likesfish]

Complete and utter bollocks. ISIS's fighting strength comes from ex-army Baathists--hardly an untrained rabble by anyone's standards.

The iraqi army who famously got their arse kicked by iranian teenagers? while losing against US and hangers on juggernaught is one thing but they didn't even go down fighting.
The invasion of iran was a disaster losing armoured units to light infantry in open countryside takes a special kind of stupid. The iraqi army was famous for getting used as target practice and massacring civillians thats it.

 

[Patteran]

The iraqi army who famously got their arse kicked by iranian teenagers? while losing against US and hangers on juggernaught is one thing but they didn't even go down fighting.
The invasion of iran was a disaster losing armoured units to light infantry in open countryside takes a special kind of stupid. The iraqi army was famous for getting used as target practice and massacring civillians thats it.

Sure - but soldiers & commanders trained first in conventional warfare/logistics/communications & then in ten years of insurgency/resistance in Iraq will have some capabilities, especially against a now familiar enemy in a familiar environment - and the fact that they've survived demonstrates the possibility of useful skills & networks. Presumably it's a bit of both - some experienced soldiers & commanders, some untrained rabble - which could be ideal for mixing conventional asymmetric warfare with suicide attacks.

 

[kebabking]

Sure - but soldiers & commanders trained first in conventional warfare/logistics/communications & then in ten years of insurgency/resistance in Iraq will have some capabilities, especially against a now familiar enemy in a familiar environment - and the fact that they've survived demonstrates the possibility of useful skills & networks. Presumably it's a bit of both - some experienced soldiers & commanders, some untrained rabble - which could be ideal for mixing conventional asymmetric warfare with suicide attacks.

sadly, despite it being obvious that IS is by no stretch of the imagination unbeatable, they do appear to be rather less easily beatable than might have been hoped.

the question is what, now, are we going to do about that?

which options, which might well be unpallatable and have unwanted side effects, ought to at least go on the table? what risks are we prepared to run? is there any point in pushing for, or working towards, a wider effect than simply beating, or degrading and containing, IS?

 

[ViolentPanda]

Complete and utter bollocks. ISIS's fighting strength comes from ex-army Baathists--hardly an untrained rabble by anyone's standards.

They're officered by ex-Ba'athist military. Different thing entirely. They draw their "fighting strength" from all over.

 

[frogwoman]

sadly, despite it being obvious that IS is by no stretch of the imagination unbeatable, they do appear to be rather less easily beatable than might have been hoped.

the question is what, now, are we going to do about that?

which options, which might well be unpallatable and have unwanted side effects, ought to at least go on the table? what risks are we prepared to run? is there any point in pushing for, or working towards, a wider effect than simply beating, or degrading and containing, IS?

My biggest fear regarding ISIS is that it will become a de facto state of affairs that their presence gradually becomes 'normalised' and no serious effort is made to drive them out, that eventually the presence of that entity becomes semi legitimised and tolerated in a similar way to that of say Transnistria, and the YPG and similar groups gradually see a reduction of any effort to help them

 

[not-bono-ever]

Maybe Israel is just

US blocks attempts by Arab allies to fly heavy weapons directly to Kurds to fight Islamic State



Odd story, you would think that the US would be happy enough to arm the KRG but it's also interesting that the countries that I suspect they are talking about seem to see the KRG as an effective bulwark against Iranian influence.

US blocks attempts by Arab allies to fly heavy weapons directly to Kurds to fight Islamic State



Odd story, you would think that the US would be happy enough to arm the KRG but it's also interesting that the countries that I suspect they are talking about seem to see the KRG as an effective bulwark against Iranian influence.

Iran have previous in acting unilaterally to tool up locals. I wonder if their burgeoning friendship with the great Satan may be tempering this kind of action?

 

[DotCommunist]

Mozz B reduced to tweeting whatabouteries. Apples and oranges anyway, economic coercion to sex work is shit and I wish to god it didn't happen but its not the same as being sold on the slave block in raqqa. Facile comparison

 

[Patteran]

sadly, despite it being obvious that IS is by no stretch of the imagination unbeatable, they do appear to be rather less easily beatable than might have been hoped.

the question is what, now, are we going to do about that?

which options, which might well be unpallatable and have unwanted side effects, ought to at least go on the table? what risks are we prepared to run? is there any point in pushing for, or working towards, a wider effect than simply beating, or degrading and containing, IS?

I don't know. Lifting the arms embargo on the Syrian Kurds could have a concrete military impact, but even within the context of a message board, I don't feel qualified to include myself in any rhetorical 'we' - my political reaction is that 'we' ask the people of the region for solutions, rather than imposing them from outside. And that maybe 'we' can contribute by stopping other external powers from interfering/arming/refuelling the conflict. I posted a piece last week that included this - 'Perhaps the problem with the Middle East, then, is not its instability, but the fact that international forces sustain that instability and prevent it from ever reaching the point of exhaustion?'

 

[not-bono-ever]

I
FCC

If th he

My biggest fear regarding ISIS is that it will become a de facto state of affairs that their presence gradually becomes 'normalised' and no serious effort is made to drive them out, that eventually the presence of that entity becomes semi legitimised and tolerated in a similar way to that of say Transnistria, and the YPG and similar groups gradually see a reduction of any effort to help them

My biggest fear regarding ISIS is that it will become a de facto state of affairs that their presence gradually becomes 'normalised' and no serious effort is made to drive them out, that eventually the presence of that entity becomes semi legitimised and tolerated in a similar way to that of say Transnistria, and the YPG and similar groups gradually see a reduction of any effort to help them

I
If they can formalise the lucrative oil export business and guarantee supply, I would not be surprised if they become more accepted.

Awful as it may be.

 

[frogwoman]

I
FCC

If th he



I
If they can formalise the lucrative oil export business and guarantee supply, I would not be surprised if they become more accepted.

Awful as it may be.

That's what I'm scared of.

 

[not-bono-ever]

The low oil prices are impacting their revenue and potentially restricting actions - not helped by the death of Abu sayyaf, their oil sales head honcho

 

[frogwoman]

Mozz B reduced to tweeting whatabouteries. Apples and oranges anyway, economic coercion to sex work is shit and I wish to god it didn't happen but its not the same as being sold on the slave block in raqqa. Facile comparison

He's a scumbag and i want to burn his book.

 

[Patteran]

That's what I'm scared of.

A sectarian extremist state within a restructured Iraq & Syria, with border changes framed in the West as a progressive, liberal response to historical colonial impositions. The Caliphate will make some concessions, perhaps hand over/execute a couple of notorious Jihad Johns, invite a transnational to collaborate in the rebuilding of the oil industry, & become normalised. And Saudi, by comparison, will become the more moderate regional partner - just as Saudi currently makes the Gulf States seem comparatively moderate. Maybe?

 

[frogwoman]

A sectarian extremist state within a restructured Iraq & Syria, with border changes framed in the West as a progressive, liberal response to historical colonial impositions. The Caliphate will make some concessions, perhaps hand over/execute a couple of notorious Jihad Johns, invite a transnational to collaborate in the rebuilding of the oil industry, & become normalised. And Saudi, by comparison, will become the more moderate regional partner - just as Saudi currently makes the Gulf States seem comparatively moderate. Maybe?

Yep, I think that's the long game some of them are playing.

 

[kebabking]

I don't know. Lifting the arms embargo on the Syrian Kurds could have a concrete military impact, but even within the context of a message board, I don't feel qualified to include myself in any rhetorical 'we' - my political reaction is that 'we' ask the people of the region for solutions, rather than imposing them from outside...

one is reminded of Kissengers quip 'whats Europes phone number?'

i'm not particularly disagreeing with your view, but there's a problem of who to ask, which people should we ask to shape our policy - should we be asking the Saudi government, should we be reading the letters page in the Bagdhdad Evening Post, or - to be slightly stirring - should we be asking a relatively tiny sect like the Marxist-Leninist (Official(provisional(continuity))) Peoples Front?

all, i'm sure, would give us very different and entirely mutually exclusive views and advance the cause of effective decision making not one jot.

we also need to be very clear that not taking a view is an option that has actual effects on the ground - it might make us feel better, but there are consequences, probably - as frogwoman fears - to allow IS to entrench and consolidate to the point where it becomes an accepted fact on the ground.

 

[Patteran]

one is reminded of Kissengers quip 'whats Europes phone number?'

i'm not particularly disagreeing with your view, but there's a problem of who to ask, which people should we ask to shape our policy - should we be asking the Saudi government, should we be reading the letters page in the Bagdhdad Evening Post, or - to be slightly stirring - should we be asking a relatively tiny sect like the Marxist-Leninist (Official(provisional(continuity))) Peoples Front?

all, i'm sure, would give us very different and entirely mutually exclusive views and advance the cause of effective decision making not one jot.

we also need to be very clear that not taking a view is an option that has actual effects on the ground - it might make us feel better, but there are consequences, probably - as frogwoman fears - to allow IS to entrench and consolidate to the point where it becomes an accepted fact on the ground.

Ok - I guess I'd use class analysis to find allies - and look to those who did the same. Representative voices of the Syrian revolution exist, channels to the remains of Syrian citizenship must exist. The PYD seem to be a voice of reason regionally. The point I was making is that I struggle to include myself in any 'we' concerned with international decision making - I get ignored in our house, let alone on a world stage. What could a relatively progressive European Union do? Attempt to stop foreign powers arming & financing proxies? Force nations to declare interests & hidden hands? And help progressive neighbours to prosper as alternatives to 'It's all fucked anyway, a Caliphate might not be so bad'. A democratic, pluralistic Lebanon/free & fair elections in Baghdad or Cairo (for example) could be a live alternative to deathly repressive extremes.

 

[kebabking]

..A democratic, pluralistic Lebanon/free & fair elections in Baghdad or Cairo (for example) could be a live alternative to deathly repressive extremes.

absolutely, again, i'd disagree with very little of what you've written - however none of those tools will be available next week or next month, and IS needs to be significantly weaker by the winter than it is now if it is not to become a permanent fixture.

IS wins - to some extent - simply by not losing and to some degree being able to hold its own against the combined power of those ranged against it. every day that its not being spanked embarrassingly its drawing recruits both to it in Syria et al, as well as inspiring groups or individuals in Europe etc.. and forcing the local groups who might well oppose it to come to some reluctant compromise with it. IS is drying concrete, and while we wait for the ideal solution to it, its getting harder and harder to dislodge.

 

[Patteran]

'Drying concrete' - good phrase.

 

[Pickman's model]

absolutely, again, i'd disagree with very little of what you've written - however none of those tools will be available next week or next month, and IS needs to be significantly weaker by the winter than it is now if it is not to become a permanent fixture.

IS wins - to some extent - simply by not losing and to some degree being able to hold its own against the combined power of those ranged against it. every day that its not being spanked embarrassingly its drawing recruits both to it in Syria et al, as well as inspiring groups or individuals in Europe etc.. and forcing the local groups who might well oppose it to come to some reluctant compromise with it. IS is drying concrete, and while we wait for the ideal solution to it, its getting harder and harder to dislodge.

yeh but in all honesty if it was left to its own devices and wasn't being backed to the hilt and bankrolled by the likes of the saudis it would be pretty insignificant. to kill is you need to kill the support it gets from countries using them as proxies.

 

[kebabking]

yeh but in all honesty if it was left to its own devices and wasn't being backed to the hilt and bankrolled by the likes of the saudis it would be pretty insignificant. to kill is you need to kill the support it gets from countries using them as proxies.

wouldn't disagree - in exactly the same way that without Saudi money in the 90's/00's AQ would have been little more than bearded loons yelling at the moon from a cave in Afghanistan - the issue is can that funding stream be cut off in time to prevent them becoming entrenched, and even if that funding stream is cut off, have they - by dint of their 'taxes' - got enough of their own organic income to keep fighting anyway?

 

[frogwoman]

Mozz B reduced to tweeting whatabouteries. Apples and oranges anyway, economic coercion to sex work is shit and I wish to god it didn't happen but its not the same as being sold on the slave block in raqqa. Facile comparison

I found out i have four mutual fb friends with him

 

[DotCommunist]

I found out i have four mutual fb friends with him

I had him flagged as a wrongun from the get go.

Anyone our state security likes that much must be up to something