The current situation in Venezuela
- Thread starter 1%er
- Start date
J Ed
Follow Back Pro Expropriation
Nah It was the fuck off hills brutal weather a water table about two feet above the surface and sociopathic midges aprat from that its lovely
Good trout fishing tho
1%er
Well-Known Member
There have been a number of explosions in Caracas aimed at the police over the last few days adding to the number of attacks over the last few months.
Having just spoken to friends who live there, people are saying different things. Some are saying it is a response from the drug gangs because the government has started a "pacification" program similar to that currently happening in Brazil's Favelas, while other believe it is the government to give them an excuse to put troops on the streets prior to the elections in December.
Having just spoken to friends who live there, people are saying different things. Some are saying it is a response from the drug gangs because the government has started a "pacification" program similar to that currently happening in Brazil's Favelas, while other believe it is the government to give them an excuse to put troops on the streets prior to the elections in December.
1%er
Well-Known Member
The election is tomorrow and it looks like the PSVU (United Socialist Party of Venezuela) is going to loose control of the National Assembly, even in its rural strongholds the vote could drop from 80% down to 30%. Even many of the Chavistas we talked to are saying they will not vote for the PSVU because Maduro isn't the person to move it forward, the Bolivarian spirit is alive and well but appears devoid of any form of leadership.
Many of the people we spoke with said that the biggest problem they have is finding enough food to feed their families and the seconded biggest problem they have is getting home on public transport or on foot with that food without being robbed.
In the opening post (from May this year) the exchange rate from the Bolivar to the Dollar on the open market (the rate real people have to pay) was 400 to 1, that rate is now over 900 to 1 (because of the shortage of Dollars people can't buy them from banks of government exchange offices). Inflation is anywhere from 178% up to over 800% depending on how it is calculated, the government stopped measuring it in 2014, so there are no official figures from Venezuela.
Many of the people we spoke with said that the biggest problem they have is finding enough food to feed their families and the seconded biggest problem they have is getting home on public transport or on foot with that food without being robbed.
In the opening post (from May this year) the exchange rate from the Bolivar to the Dollar on the open market (the rate real people have to pay) was 400 to 1, that rate is now over 900 to 1 (because of the shortage of Dollars people can't buy them from banks of government exchange offices). Inflation is anywhere from 178% up to over 800% depending on how it is calculated, the government stopped measuring it in 2014, so there are no official figures from Venezuela.
Is inflation 178% up from May's figures?
JHE
.
Venezuela uses an electronic voting system, which should (but doesn't) mean that the results will be available very soon after the polls close.
The system may also facilitate electoral fraud by those who run the system - and that is precisely what many anti-Chavistas claim has happened in some previous elections, including Maduro's election as president. The anti-Chavistas claim that in that election the opposition won, though narrowly, and the election results were fiddled to produce a narrow win for Maduro.
Today's rumours (at least the ones I've heard):
1. Many people who have been to vote and have operated the system correctly have then seen on the screen that their vote is counted as null.
2. The regime is going to concede that the opposition has won, but is going to fiddle the election to ensure that the victory is narrow.
Whoever wins today, and whatever results are given by the electoral authorities, two things are certain:
1. Maduro remains president for the moment, within a system which gives a lot of power to the president.
2. The poverty, scarcity, corruption and the terrifying level of violence are of course not going to disappear in a puff of smoke. Even if today turns out to be the beginning of a major change for the better in Venezuela, the process will be slow.
The system may also facilitate electoral fraud by those who run the system - and that is precisely what many anti-Chavistas claim has happened in some previous elections, including Maduro's election as president. The anti-Chavistas claim that in that election the opposition won, though narrowly, and the election results were fiddled to produce a narrow win for Maduro.
Today's rumours (at least the ones I've heard):
1. Many people who have been to vote and have operated the system correctly have then seen on the screen that their vote is counted as null.
2. The regime is going to concede that the opposition has won, but is going to fiddle the election to ensure that the victory is narrow.
Whoever wins today, and whatever results are given by the electoral authorities, two things are certain:
1. Maduro remains president for the moment, within a system which gives a lot of power to the president.
2. The poverty, scarcity, corruption and the terrifying level of violence are of course not going to disappear in a puff of smoke. Even if today turns out to be the beginning of a major change for the better in Venezuela, the process will be slow.
JHE
.
Results announced so far give the opposition 99 seats and Maduro 46. 22 seats seats are still to be declared. If the opposition gets two thirds of the seats (110) or more, it will be able to reform the constitution. The delay does make me suspect that the government is fiddling things to ensure that the opposition doesn't win 110 seats, but we don't know yet. We'll find out within a few hours, I suppose.
Jeff Robinson
Marxist-Lentilist: Jackboots and Jackfruit
A sad time for progressive politics in Latin America.
1%er
Well-Known Member
The opposition have won but it will be a hollow victory as things will surely get a lot worse for the workers and those living in poverty. The Chavistas who still make up a majority of the population seem to be asking themselves "can a socialist revolution really be won via the ballot box?" They couldn't vote for the PSVU because they knew Maduro wasn't the person to address the shortages, lack of jobs, inflation, corruption and violence, they can't understand why Maduro still has the support of the party's hierarchy.
The broad opposition coalition do have some socialists in their ranks, so there may not be a massive shift to the right (haven't seen who won in each seat yet, so it is hard to tell the make-up of the National Assembly). Maduro appears to have learnt nothing from this defeat and has put it down to "economic warfare from outside the country".
Listening to the radio is seems that most Chavistas see this as a temporary set-back and that the PSVU will come back stronger when they oust Maduro.
The broad opposition coalition do have some socialists in their ranks, so there may not be a massive shift to the right (haven't seen who won in each seat yet, so it is hard to tell the make-up of the National Assembly). Maduro appears to have learnt nothing from this defeat and has put it down to "economic warfare from outside the country".
Listening to the radio is seems that most Chavistas see this as a temporary set-back and that the PSVU will come back stronger when they oust Maduro.
elbows
Well-Known Member
I suspect the fiddling thing is just the classic opposition propaganda, as always. We'll see, it is premature of me to reach this conclusion if the final 22 seats results still aren't in, but if I wanted to fiddle an election I certainly wouldn't draw attention to the possibility by having such delays.
The government accepting the result is good, puts certain fears to bed although other legit ones remain. Whether the government recognise that their rhetoric isn't working, and whether they can come up with an alternative plan remains somewhat doubtful. The opposition are being slightly cautious too, recognising that many people who voted for them this time are still Chavistas in some way, people who voted against Maduro & current circumstances rather than against every aspect of Chavez's project or heavily in favour of a particular opposition candidate or policy. Hence they are still careful to promise not to demolish an array of welfare policies.
JHE
.
The opposition alliance, MUD, claim that they have won 112 seats. They have been very specific about who and where. I'm told they even claim to have the official paperwork. Nevertheless, it's now two days since the election and the electoral authorities still haven't announced all the results. They have made no further announcement since they announced 99 seats for MUD and 46 for PSUV.
Rumours include a fierce confrontation on Sunday night, following the election, between top military bods, disagreeing about how to respond to the election.
Rumours include a fierce confrontation on Sunday night, following the election, between top military bods, disagreeing about how to respond to the election.
1%er
Well-Known Member
It should be understood that this is a defeat for Maduro and his inability to tackle the problems faced by the people of Venezuela, it is not being seen as a defeat for the Chavistas or the Bolivarian spirit, just a temporary setback.
Jesus Torrealba who is Secretary-General of MUD (Mesa de la Unidad Democrática or Democratic Unity Roundtable in English) is a former communist and also set up community programs in deprived areas of Caracas to help the poor and disadvantaged. He can no way be described as right wing or even right of center.
While it is still hard to get a handle on the make up of the National Assembly, it looks unlikely that it will take a massive shift to the right. Although they say they want to look at all the recent nationalizations, try to stimulate the private sector, cutback the amount of money being printed by the Central Bank, which is feeding the inflation and pass an amnesty law to force the release of political prisoners.
Time will tell how far to the right things will move.
Jesus Torrealba who is Secretary-General of MUD (Mesa de la Unidad Democrática or Democratic Unity Roundtable in English) is a former communist and also set up community programs in deprived areas of Caracas to help the poor and disadvantaged. He can no way be described as right wing or even right of center.
While it is still hard to get a handle on the make up of the National Assembly, it looks unlikely that it will take a massive shift to the right. Although they say they want to look at all the recent nationalizations, try to stimulate the private sector, cutback the amount of money being printed by the Central Bank, which is feeding the inflation and pass an amnesty law to force the release of political prisoners.
Time will tell how far to the right things will move.
1%er
Well-Known Member
The election commission has confirmed that the opposition has won 112 and the PSUV have 55 seats in the National Assembly. That is a big enough majority to allow them to make changes to the constitution and Maduro has asked his cabinet to resign as divisions start to appear with-in the PSUV.
1%er
Well-Known Member
An update
The government has just devalued the currency, the official government exchange rate (not available to the public) has gone from 6.4 bolivars to $1 to 10 bolivars to $1, but the rate available to the public on the street is around 900 bolivars to $1.
Petrol has just gone up by 6,000% (no I haven't added an extra zero, that really is 6,000%) while it was very cheap this is going to hit the poor hardest as public transport prices are rising massively. The last time they raised the price of petrol there were massive riots, but that doesn't seem to have happened "yet".
The murder rate has also gone up and is now 90 per 100,000 people, to put that in perspective, it is around 20 times that of the USA.
Whitest there is price regulation in the government shops, there are no basic goods to buy in them as they are brought in through the front door and leave almost immediately via the back door, only to be sold on the black market at massively inflated prices. These goods tend to be cooking oil, flour, rice, cleaning products, meat and other foodstuffs.
Inflation is expected to reach 700% this year, but the minimum wages is going to rise by 20% according to friends in the country (but some news reports are saying by 50%) this will be the 35 increase in the minimum wage since 1999.
The government has just devalued the currency, the official government exchange rate (not available to the public) has gone from 6.4 bolivars to $1 to 10 bolivars to $1, but the rate available to the public on the street is around 900 bolivars to $1.
Petrol has just gone up by 6,000% (no I haven't added an extra zero, that really is 6,000%) while it was very cheap this is going to hit the poor hardest as public transport prices are rising massively. The last time they raised the price of petrol there were massive riots, but that doesn't seem to have happened "yet".
The murder rate has also gone up and is now 90 per 100,000 people, to put that in perspective, it is around 20 times that of the USA.
Whitest there is price regulation in the government shops, there are no basic goods to buy in them as they are brought in through the front door and leave almost immediately via the back door, only to be sold on the black market at massively inflated prices. These goods tend to be cooking oil, flour, rice, cleaning products, meat and other foodstuffs.
Inflation is expected to reach 700% this year, but the minimum wages is going to rise by 20% according to friends in the country (but some news reports are saying by 50%) this will be the 35 increase in the minimum wage since 1999.
JHE
.
While the slaughter continues and hunger sets in, Maduro and his chums don't have any solutions, as far as I can see.
One staple, maize flour (Harina P.A.N. being the main brand), used for making arepas, is in short supply. According to some reports, there isn't enough wheat either, so shortages of bread can be expected soon.
As well as food shortages, many medicines are unavailable. As a result, people who were previously being treated are now just dying.
Maduro declared an economic state of emergency which allows him to rule by decree in relation to economic policy (for 100 days, IIRC). The gentleman Maduro appointed Minister of the Economy in January, Luis Salas, resigned a few days ago, for family reasons of course. With inflation running at 30% a month, Mr Salas opined that:
The anti-Chavista majority in Parliament wants to reduce the length of the presidential term to bring forward the next presidential election, currently not due until 2019.
I don't know what the prospects are of changing the regime in the near future, but it's clear that whoever is in government, Venezuela is so fucked up that it's going to take a bloody long time to recover. (I choose the word 'bloody' advisedly.)
(Here's a vid that's been doing the rounds among Venezuelans. The gentlemen shown in the vid are prisoners in Margarita, though presumably only when they feel like it. They were paying homage to their ex-'pran' [prison top dog], Teófilo Alfredo Rodríguez, who had been murdered.)
One staple, maize flour (Harina P.A.N. being the main brand), used for making arepas, is in short supply. According to some reports, there isn't enough wheat either, so shortages of bread can be expected soon.
As well as food shortages, many medicines are unavailable. As a result, people who were previously being treated are now just dying.
Maduro declared an economic state of emergency which allows him to rule by decree in relation to economic policy (for 100 days, IIRC). The gentleman Maduro appointed Minister of the Economy in January, Luis Salas, resigned a few days ago, for family reasons of course. With inflation running at 30% a month, Mr Salas opined that:
“La inflación no existe en la vida real (…) es el correlato económico del fascismo político” [Inflation does not exist in real life [...] it is the economic corrolate of political fascism.]
The anti-Chavista majority in Parliament wants to reduce the length of the presidential term to bring forward the next presidential election, currently not due until 2019.
I don't know what the prospects are of changing the regime in the near future, but it's clear that whoever is in government, Venezuela is so fucked up that it's going to take a bloody long time to recover. (I choose the word 'bloody' advisedly.)
(Here's a vid that's been doing the rounds among Venezuelans. The gentlemen shown in the vid are prisoners in Margarita, though presumably only when they feel like it. They were paying homage to their ex-'pran' [prison top dog], Teófilo Alfredo Rodríguez, who had been murdered.)
Idris2002
canadian girlfriend
1%er
Well-Known Member
If the lack of food stuff wasn't enough, the power system is also broken leaving millions of people without electricity for days on end in some places and weeks in others. It is amazing that the country with the worlds largest oil reserves can't power itself. While much of the power is provided by hydroelectric dams and the lack of rain fall hasn't helped, this isn't the reason for the power outages, the problem is the infrastructure. Millions of workers have been told they will have a 5 day holiday over Easter in an effort to save power, it is unlikely that many of those workers will be paid for the forced shutdown.
The country is falling apart, millions of workers are being laid off because the factories can't get the materials they need to stay open, schools and hospitals are closing because they don't have power, staff or supplies, and the rest of the world is just looking the other way.
The country is falling apart, millions of workers are being laid off because the factories can't get the materials they need to stay open, schools and hospitals are closing because they don't have power, staff or supplies, and the rest of the world is just looking the other way.
1%er
Well-Known Member
Will the last person to leave please turn off the lights
Caracas last week when the country was closed because they don't have energy. The problem with cutting the power is that it also cuts the water supply, as the local water supply needs power to pump the water through the system
Caracas last week when the country was closed because they don't have energy. The problem with cutting the power is that it also cuts the water supply, as the local water supply needs power to pump the water through the system
1%er
Well-Known Member
They can't blame the "rainfall & dam situation" for the lack of investment in the infrastructure. While rain fall is down there is still enough water to run to hydro-power stations, this is a political decision not a resources decision.
The country is awash with oil and gas, they should never run out of power.
CyberRose
أرفع الشفرات
It's been in the news loads recently here in neighbouring Colombia about possible power rationing because the abnormally hot weather over the last year (caused by el niño) has led to droughts and problems with the hydroelectric plants.
There have been powercuts in a few places in the capital in recent months altrady and next week I think the government will decide whether rationing will have to come in, so this isn't necessarily unique to Venezuela.
Also, I would imagine the infrastructure is pretty shite in Colombia as well.
There have been powercuts in a few places in the capital in recent months altrady and next week I think the government will decide whether rationing will have to come in, so this isn't necessarily unique to Venezuela.
Also, I would imagine the infrastructure is pretty shite in Colombia as well.
JHE
.
Indeed, and for most of the period of the Bolivarian Revolution, thanks to the high price of oil, Venezuela enjoyed an absolute bonanza of oil revenue.
I recently asked a very anti-Chavista Venezuelan why the infrastructure, and in particular power generation and distribution, was so crap. Did Chávez neglect infrastructure investment to focus on more revolutionary-sounding spending? I asked. No, she explained, Chávez was very keen on hydroelectric power and solar power. He assigned enormous sums of money to develop those greener forms of energy. However, all the money just disappeared. It was nicked and probably ended up in bank accounts in various tax havens.
The boliburguesía - the Bolivarian bourgeoisie - has become incredibly rich thanks to the Chavista revolution. It's not just the dosh for solar power etc. Thousands of billions of US dollars have gone missing from PDVSA, the state oil company. Expropriated land has not been used to create any socialist alternative. It's been left idle and then sold off at rock-bottom prices to the boliburguesía.
The plebs can starve and die for lack of medicines. Never mind them. ¡Viva la robolución!
Last edited:
1%er
Well-Known Member
How much worse can it get? Now on the limited times that people get water it is bad water, millions of people have stomach illness and diarrhea as well as skin problems like folliculitis and scabies and with no medicine they just have to live with it. Many places only have power for 3 days a week if they get power at all, violent crime has gone crazy so people don't want to leave their homes, even the water trucks that are being sent out in some areas where there is no water supply at all are being hijacked by armed gangs. There is little or no communication as TV, Internet and phones don't work as while one area may have power another area needed to forward the information doesn't have power. Also telecom's and cable companies are owed hundreds of million by the government so now can't pay their workers or pay for suppliers to repair problems. Multi-national companies are leaving or shutting down so fast it would make your head spin as the currency is worthless and they can't buy good to import as they are just becoming to expensive.
While some of the problems are natural (there has been a lack of rain) many are exaggerated by man-made failures with the lack of investment over many years in the infrastructure, calima (dust and ash clouds) are really bad at this time of year and people don't have electricity to use fans to keep it out of their homes so respiratory problems among the young and old are at epidemic proportions, again with no medicine to help people are just having to get on with it. With no soap, water or washing powder people are finding hard to keep clean which is just making the sickness worse.
Nicolas Maduro has declared that weekends will start on Thursdays and some weeks there will be 5 day weekends for millions of workers and he is now going to change Venezuela's time zone, in an effort to curtail power usage, last time they changed the time zone, crime went up as many workers had to return home after dark and were robbed on public transport. The currency has lost 98 percent of its value against many other currencies and inflation is heading for 500%, the newly elected government can't make any changes as they are all being blocked by the Supreme Court appointed by Maduro. The Government party are claiming that long weekends and extra holidays are being given to stop the progress of the referendum they want to call to get rid of him and not to save electricity as is claimed.
The situation is so bad that the groups from Brazil and other countries that were sending aid have had to stop because the drivers say it is to dangerous and the police who we use to pay to protect the convoys now want payment in US$ (which would just be taken by customs at the boarder) as well as around one third of the goods that are being sent. Millions of people don't have any food or money and it will not be long before people are dying of starvation in the street.
While some of the problems are natural (there has been a lack of rain) many are exaggerated by man-made failures with the lack of investment over many years in the infrastructure, calima (dust and ash clouds) are really bad at this time of year and people don't have electricity to use fans to keep it out of their homes so respiratory problems among the young and old are at epidemic proportions, again with no medicine to help people are just having to get on with it. With no soap, water or washing powder people are finding hard to keep clean which is just making the sickness worse.
Nicolas Maduro has declared that weekends will start on Thursdays and some weeks there will be 5 day weekends for millions of workers and he is now going to change Venezuela's time zone, in an effort to curtail power usage, last time they changed the time zone, crime went up as many workers had to return home after dark and were robbed on public transport. The currency has lost 98 percent of its value against many other currencies and inflation is heading for 500%, the newly elected government can't make any changes as they are all being blocked by the Supreme Court appointed by Maduro. The Government party are claiming that long weekends and extra holidays are being given to stop the progress of the referendum they want to call to get rid of him and not to save electricity as is claimed.
The situation is so bad that the groups from Brazil and other countries that were sending aid have had to stop because the drivers say it is to dangerous and the police who we use to pay to protect the convoys now want payment in US$ (which would just be taken by customs at the boarder) as well as around one third of the goods that are being sent. Millions of people don't have any food or money and it will not be long before people are dying of starvation in the street.
elbows
Well-Known Member
It's grim and nothing Maduro etc have done gives me any fresh faith that they have a good plan. But as usual there are some details in your post that I feel the need to question.
Think I've read some of the same reports - these things are happening and its all very bad but come on, you are surely laying the scale and completeness of the devastation on way too thick here. Take for example the hijacked water trucks - press reports indicate one truck per week being hijacked in a particular district, but without knowing how many truck operations in total per week it is hard to attribute the right sense of scale to this.
As I understand it this timezone change is in the opposite direction to the historical Chavez one you mention that caused problems, so maybe its actually a sensible move unlike the last time.
There are loads of things to be insanely critical of Maduro over, but this sounds like the usual politicised horseshit that both sides still run to as a first propaganda resort. Shit political conspiracy theories in an era of mistrust. In this case its obvious Maduro will block where he can, but you can't really get away with such dramatic measures as a 3 or 4 day week for a sustained period simply in the name of such political games - too many interests are affected to put up with that in most countries and I don't think Venezuela is an exception. In this case the energy situation is really dire, the water level at the crucial dam was only about 3 meters above the level where they have to switch the turbines off last time I read about it.
Don't have to go far to read credible accounts of how grim things have gotten on so many fronts. I've not seen much in the way of starvation narratives yet though so I hope for the sake of Venezuelans that you are getting a bit carried away again.
Think I've read some of the same reports - these things are happening and its all very bad but come on, you are surely laying the scale and completeness of the devastation on way too thick here. Take for example the hijacked water trucks - press reports indicate one truck per week being hijacked in a particular district, but without knowing how many truck operations in total per week it is hard to attribute the right sense of scale to this.
As I understand it this timezone change is in the opposite direction to the historical Chavez one you mention that caused problems, so maybe its actually a sensible move unlike the last time.
There are loads of things to be insanely critical of Maduro over, but this sounds like the usual politicised horseshit that both sides still run to as a first propaganda resort. Shit political conspiracy theories in an era of mistrust. In this case its obvious Maduro will block where he can, but you can't really get away with such dramatic measures as a 3 or 4 day week for a sustained period simply in the name of such political games - too many interests are affected to put up with that in most countries and I don't think Venezuela is an exception. In this case the energy situation is really dire, the water level at the crucial dam was only about 3 meters above the level where they have to switch the turbines off last time I read about it.
Don't have to go far to read credible accounts of how grim things have gotten on so many fronts. I've not seen much in the way of starvation narratives yet though so I hope for the sake of Venezuelans that you are getting a bit carried away again.
elbows
Well-Known Member
I remembered the water truck frequency wrong, it was 2 or 3 times a week not once. My point about not having enough other info to judge the scale remains though.
Put simply my point is that even if I only use sources which have some interest in the whole Chavez thing going to hell, e.g, the business/financial press, their tales of Venezuelan doom don't dare to lay it on as thick as you do. And they are talking about exactly the same examples of woe as you.
eg:
Yellow Water, Dirty Air, Power Outages: Venezuela Hits a New Low
Put simply my point is that even if I only use sources which have some interest in the whole Chavez thing going to hell, e.g, the business/financial press, their tales of Venezuelan doom don't dare to lay it on as thick as you do. And they are talking about exactly the same examples of woe as you.
eg:
Yellow Water, Dirty Air, Power Outages: Venezuela Hits a New Low
1%er
Well-Known Member
Unlike your information that is coming from press reports, I have visited Venezuela 7 times this year and speak to people coming across the boarder almost daily. What I have seen and hear is what I have posted, the country is in a state of collapses for fuck sake, millions of workers are being laid-off and can't afford food, if there was anything in the shps to buy. If you think I'm "laying the scale and completeness of the devastation on way too thick here" go and spend your summer holiday there and see for yourself.
I am a supporter of Chavez and what he stood for, Nicolas Maduro on the other hand is just a power hungry incompetent cunt who has thrown away the major gains that were made under Chavez.
Idris2002
canadian girlfriend
elbows
Well-Known Member
Such contact with the country is worth much indeed, but it is not the be all and end all. Especially given the nature of the political divisions in Venezuela. I was listening to relatively well-off Venezuelans tell me how Chavez had already fucked the country 15 years ago. The reality at the time was different, he had challenged their interests and affected them, but they could not speak for all Venezuela.
So I cannot help but take the most extreme accounts with more than a hint of caution. Collapse is often far messier, more prolonged and lopsided than these collapse narratives do justice to anyway.
Similar threads
