Bit surprised as I think it's too soon too. However I do know a few no voters who'd now vote yes because of Brexit so who knows.
Scotland and the EU: what next?
- Thread starter danny la rouge
- Start date
danny la rouge
More like *fanny* la rouge!
I think it's too soon, ideally. I don't think Brexit has made much of a difference. But like I say, it feels like a starting pistol was fired already, and whether we like it or not, the talk of a second referendum is in the air. If we let it mumble on, like an empty threat circumstances are daring us to make, then I think it'll slip away from us forever. So, hopefully we're not talking sooner than September 2019, but if it's happening let's stop the prevarication and just state that's what's happening.
What we need this time is better currency policy presentation (the options were correct, the signals were mishandled). The assumed preferred option should not be currency union.
And we need to be bolder: change is what we're after.
steeplejack
trapped lbw for a duck
As it stands the Tories are currently playing into the pro-indepndence hands.
Lots of loose talk about lists of foreigners, hardline control over immigration, clammy palmed and weird obsession with expelling foreign students, hard Brexits, and so on will play badly with many formerly diehard No voters. Sure, voters will wait to see what the latest independence prospectus is, and how it matches against the new extreme-right normal south of the border.
No won last time because it played the uncertainty and currency union cards again and again and again, and built a loose coalition of opportunist shitebags ( a.k.a. the "I'm alright Jack / What's in it for me and mine? demographic) and old folk worried about their pensions.
Those cards (uncertainty- we have it in spades now and its not pleasant) and currency union (with a pound tanking badly and being bet against on the global markets) can't be played in round two. Only misty eyed appeals to a common future now as remote as the Battle of Britain remain.
However, Sturgeon is playing a careful hand. She has said enough to encourage the fundamnetalist wing of the grassroots membership, people who, let's be honest, haven't another political idea in their head other than Scottish independence for its own sake. They are a much smaller minority in the SNP than was the case 20-25 years ago. Secondly, she has animated the more pragmatically minded, who are already generating terabytes of data on alternative media about what a second referendum campaingn might look like.
But Sturgeon also, even though she can't publically say it, would accept some strange UK-specific deal that lets Scotland's EU membership /access to the single market continue, whilst also remaining part of the UK. This sort of strange post-Brexit devo-max is, I suspect, her preferred option. The numbers on support for independence still don't add up, even if they are moving very slowly in the right direction, and do so with every Farage-lite utterance from the PM.
The trouble for this strategy? EU opinion is hardening and they will quite happily make Scotland a casualty to inflict the maximum punishment on the UK as a whole, taking what Tusk and Hollande have said this week. The voices of German car manufacturers are fading. In these circumstances, a second independence referendum- if a "special status" for Scotland is shot down by hardline EU negotiators- is inevitable. A queston of when, rather than if.
Lots in play and far too complex for the 24h news media to grasp fully /cover properly.
Lots of loose talk about lists of foreigners, hardline control over immigration, clammy palmed and weird obsession with expelling foreign students, hard Brexits, and so on will play badly with many formerly diehard No voters. Sure, voters will wait to see what the latest independence prospectus is, and how it matches against the new extreme-right normal south of the border.
No won last time because it played the uncertainty and currency union cards again and again and again, and built a loose coalition of opportunist shitebags ( a.k.a. the "I'm alright Jack / What's in it for me and mine? demographic) and old folk worried about their pensions.
Those cards (uncertainty- we have it in spades now and its not pleasant) and currency union (with a pound tanking badly and being bet against on the global markets) can't be played in round two. Only misty eyed appeals to a common future now as remote as the Battle of Britain remain.
However, Sturgeon is playing a careful hand. She has said enough to encourage the fundamnetalist wing of the grassroots membership, people who, let's be honest, haven't another political idea in their head other than Scottish independence for its own sake. They are a much smaller minority in the SNP than was the case 20-25 years ago. Secondly, she has animated the more pragmatically minded, who are already generating terabytes of data on alternative media about what a second referendum campaingn might look like.
But Sturgeon also, even though she can't publically say it, would accept some strange UK-specific deal that lets Scotland's EU membership /access to the single market continue, whilst also remaining part of the UK. This sort of strange post-Brexit devo-max is, I suspect, her preferred option. The numbers on support for independence still don't add up, even if they are moving very slowly in the right direction, and do so with every Farage-lite utterance from the PM.
The trouble for this strategy? EU opinion is hardening and they will quite happily make Scotland a casualty to inflict the maximum punishment on the UK as a whole, taking what Tusk and Hollande have said this week. The voices of German car manufacturers are fading. In these circumstances, a second independence referendum- if a "special status" for Scotland is shot down by hardline EU negotiators- is inevitable. A queston of when, rather than if.
Lots in play and far too complex for the 24h news media to grasp fully /cover properly.
danny la rouge
More like *fanny* la rouge!
Is that last sentence correct? It's not how it feels to look at social media. My sense is that it's got much worse and they have even less politics. Not sure if they're all SNP members, but there's a huge fundamentalist presence which is miles away from what the SNP leadership says.
steeplejack
trapped lbw for a duck
They appear louder *because* of social media which is a tiny sliver of opinion.
If you looked at my social media timeline you'd believe the UK was being run by a Corbyn-Sturgeon coalition.
If you looked at my social media timeline you'd believe the UK was being run by a Corbyn-Sturgeon coalition.
teuchter
je suis teuchter
In the period immediately after the EU vote, I found that many people I spoke to here in London were taking it pretty much for granted that Scotland would now have a second independence referendum, and that people would vote in favour. But it was quite noticeable that when I was actually in Scotland a couple of weeks later, it didn't feel like there was very much appetite for it at all - or at least, not amongst those previous "no" voters who might now have been swung towards yes by Brexit.
Of course, my samples in both places will not have been in any way accurately representative of broader opinion.
I do think, though, that if I had a vote in an independence referendum, I could well be swung from "really don't know" to "actually maybe yes" by the whole Brexit situation.
Of course, my samples in both places will not have been in any way accurately representative of broader opinion.
I do think, though, that if I had a vote in an independence referendum, I could well be swung from "really don't know" to "actually maybe yes" by the whole Brexit situation.
Sasaferrato
Super Refuser!
In the immediate post referendum period I did think that I would change my vote re independence, however, sanity returned.
Sasaferrato
Super Refuser!
That demonstrated the lunacy of the SNP more than anything, yes, the pound will be our currency. As a new entrant, IIRC, the Euro would have been mandatory.
DexterTCN
Troy and Abed in the morning
Sasaferrato
Super Refuser!
I think Sturgeon needs to seek professional help. Her delusions seem to have taken her over.
The UK is out of the EU. That includes Scotland.
Sasaferrato
Super Refuser!
It obviously does not occur to the mono-thought Sturgeon, that if she had her wish, Scotland would be under the aegis of a 'foreign court', which is one of the blood and soil nationalist's objections at the moment.
redsquirrel
This Machine Kills Progressives
No it isn't, it hasn't even officially started the leaving process yet.
A very strong majority of the Scottish electorate want to stay in the EU, why shouldn't she try to maintain Scotlands EU membership. Deluded is ranting on about the 'Scottish Nazi Party'
danny la rouge
More like *fanny* la rouge!
I hesitate to comment. But what does that even mean? Every part of that sentence is incomprehensible to me. Except "this week".
danny la rouge
More like *fanny* la rouge!
I'm aware of current events. It's the particular sentence I quoted that I didn't understand, though I'd guessed what occurrence it referred to.
DexterTCN
Troy and Abed in the morning
Well....Scotland Scotland - Wikipedia
reached out reach out to sb Meaning in the Cambridge English Dictionary
to Ireland
and it is what is currently happening with Scotland in Europe
"I hesitate to comment.................But"
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
How did one geographic region reach out to another?
danny la rouge
More like *fanny* la rouge!
So the Kintyre peninsula stretched further toward Antrim? Cool.Well....Scotland Scotland - Wikipedia
reached out reach out to sb Meaning in the Cambridge English Dictionary
to Ireland View attachment 96500
and it is what is currently happening with Scotland in Europe
"I hesitate to comment.................But"
redsquirrel
This Machine Kills Progressives
DexterTCN
Troy and Abed in the morning
As far as I'm aware most of the polls were framed as 'do you want indyref 2 in 2017?'.
Only the yoons want that, most indy supporters don't. We're looking at late 2018/early2019. Another year and a half or so suits us just fine.
They know it's coming, they want to control the timing to give them an advantage but the timing belongs to us. We need that time. The 'official' line is we need to convince some more people. Most conversations are about how much more damage will be caused by BLiS, the tories, westminster in general and so on...we're quite happy letting them do our job for us just now.
Latest election results
SCOT goes POP!: Kalamity Kez Krushed in Kilmarnock as SNP win by-election on 9% swing
Only the yoons want that, most indy supporters don't. We're looking at late 2018/early2019. Another year and a half or so suits us just fine.
They know it's coming, they want to control the timing to give them an advantage but the timing belongs to us. We need that time. The 'official' line is we need to convince some more people. Most conversations are about how much more damage will be caused by BLiS, the tories, westminster in general and so on...we're quite happy letting them do our job for us just now.
Latest election results
SCOT goes POP!: Kalamity Kez Krushed in Kilmarnock as SNP win by-election on 9% swing
Sasaferrato
Super Refuser!
The shape of things to come... or not. 
ska invita
back on the other side
The shape of things to come... or not.
makes Russ abbot look like a nuanced comedy genius
Sasaferrato
Super Refuser!
ska invita
back on the other side
Did you find it funny? I thought you were posting it as a sign of how out of touch 'London' was from Scottish politics.It does a bit, funny though.
Its shit like this that just pushes people more to want Independence.
Id like to leave the UK after seeing that!
