Scotland and the EU: what next?

[danny la rouge]

Ignore the fawning words on the tweet (I didn't know how else to link to the video), listen to the nuance still there in her words.

 

[steeplejack]

David Mundell was on Radio Scotland this morning. He was pressed repeatedly about the attitude of a future Tory government invoking section 30 (needed for Westminster to assent to a putative future referendum) and he sidestepped it repeatedly. Westminster will not stand in the way if a second vote is called.

That said, it's a way off yet. Nicola provately doesn't really want a referendum as she is not sure of winning. I think she will spend the next year simultaneously trying to find some kind of "reverse Greenland" solution keeping Scotland as part of both the UK and EU, and building momentum and support for a second vote.

Only if reverse-Greenland cannot happen will she call the second referendum, reluctantly. But if the SNP and the broader Yes movement don't win in these circumstances frankly we never will

 

[danny la rouge]

Worth a read:

Current public discussions about how the UK is to leave the European Union have been too simplified, and have failed to come up with any solution that recognises that only England and Wales voted to leave. Brendan O’Leary outlines a way forward that might enable those nations of the UK that want to remain in the EU to do so.

[...]

The compromise would be that the bulk of the UK would be outside—‘externally associated’ perhaps—and some of it inside the EU. This change would reflect the fact that the UK is composed of two unions, that of Great Britain, and that of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, and that in each of the two unions one partner has clearly expressed the desire to remain within the EU. All four mandates within the UK would be respected in what was an advisory referendum.

Is this feasible? Recall first that many UK dependencies—including three members of the British-Irish Council, Jersey, Guernsey and the Isle of Man—are currently not part of the European Union. So it’s already true that sovereign states, including the UK, have parts of their territories subject to their sovereignty within the European Union, and parts of them outside. The terms of the foundational treaty, the Treaty of Rome, also envisioned associate status — they were designed for the UK.

Detoxifying the UK’s exit from the EU: a multi-national compromise is possible

 

[danny la rouge]

 

[gosub]

Single Market and Europe. Game on

 

[steeplejack]

NS' position statement on the SNP website couldn't really make it plainer that a second referendum is the option of last resort:

The starting point for those discussions is not independence, it is protecting our position in the European Union, that is my priority. However if it becomes clear that independence is the best way to do that then that option will be on the table and it will be a decision for the people of this country to take.

At this early stage we do not know how those negotiations will play out, but what is clear is we are in uncharted territory so my promise to all of you is that as we navigate a way forward I will work tirelessly to deliver the result Scotland voted for, to protect Scotland from the economic and social harm that will come with leaving the EU.

 

[danny la rouge]

NS' position statement on the SNP website couldn't really make it plainer that a second referendum is the option of last resort:

Try explaining that to the party faithful, who think people drawing attention to this are trying to sell their own vision rather than factually point out Nicola's.

 

[danny la rouge]

Here's what the stress is doing to Scottish Secy "Fluffy" Mundell:

 

[Johnny.]

All Sturgeon has ever wanted is another and another and another vote until she gets a yes for the EU. She is the epitome of anti democracy. Let them go then put the bloody wall up asap and forget about them.

 

[danny la rouge]

All Sturgeon has ever wanted is another and another and another vote until she gets a yes for the EU. She is the epitome of anti democracy. Let them go then put the bloody wall up asap and forget about them.

Read the thread.

Oh, and the news.

 

[danny la rouge]

Actually, don't bother ninj, or whoever you are.

 

[Ax^]

.

 

[gosub]

NS' position statement on the SNP website couldn't really make it plainer that a second referendum is the option of last resort:

That's not quite what the party spkesman said in the Commons today.
Single Market and Europe

 

[danny la rouge]

Here is Sturgeon being a clear as she can be that the headline writers and her supporters are still misreading her.

 

[steeplejack]

That Torrance really is a loathsome Thatcherite piece of shit.

 

[DaveCinzano]

That Torrance really is a loathsome Thatcherite piece of shit.

Like Robert Webb trying to join the NA

 

[butchersapron]

Is that book really called we in scotland?

 

[danny la rouge]

Is that book really called we in scotland?

The Royal we.

 

[danny la rouge]

Brexit statement and debate from 2pm

Nicola Sturgeon will ask the Scottish Parliament to formally back her efforts to protect Scotland's place in the EU.

In an emergency debate at Holyrood she will call on MSPs to support talks with officials from the UK, EU and other member states.

Watch live: First minister's EU Brexit statement - BBC News

 

[danny la rouge]

 

[danny la rouge]

 

[danny la rouge]

Motion S5M-00601: Nicola Sturgeon, Glasgow Southside, Scottish National Party, Date Lodged: 27/06/2016

Implications of the EU Referendum for Scotland

That the Parliament welcomes the overwhelming vote of the people of Scotland to remain in the European Union; affirms to citizens of other EU countries living here that they remain welcome and that their contribution is valued; mandates the Scottish Government to have discussions with the UK Government, other devolved administrations, the EU institutions and member states to explore options for protecting Scotland’s relationship with the EU, Scotland’s place in the single market and the social, employment and economic benefits that come from that, and instructs the Scottish Government to report back regularly to parliamentarians, to the European and External Relations Committee and the Parliament on the progress of those discussions and to seek Parliament’s approval of the outcome of that process.

Motions, Questions and Answers Search - Parliamentary Business :  Scottish Parliament

Approved: 92 to 0. Tories abstain.

 

[kebabking]

...Approved: 92 to 0. Tories abstain.

disapointed, and surprised - RD has got better political nouse than that. its also self-defeating: the the stronger cross-party support NS has the more likely she is to get something from the UK-EU negotiations that broadly meets Scotlands requirements, and the less cross party support she has the less likely she'll get the same - and if she doesn't get it, she'll, however reluctantly, go for Indyref 2.0 - which she'll probably win.

if she wants to capitaise on Labours implosion/naval gazing, she has to look all responsible - playing silly games with a statement that no one, even the most ardent, mouth foaming unionist (like me...) could argue with is stupid, irresponsible, self-defeating idiocy.

i may have to get wid d'yoof and join Twitter...

 

[steeplejack]

Ruth has presented herself as a joke figure for so long, that it can come as no surprise if few take her seriously when the time for jokes is over.

She's jockeying for position in what she imagines will be a coing indyref2, as the defender of the Union. But not much she has done since the election has shown much "nous" really. Her call for stability in the wake of Brexit is just laughable, particulalrly when Mundell has made it clear that Westminster will not stand in the way if it comes to that.

 

[danny la rouge]

I'll put this here too:

JP Morgan says Scottish independence, new currency now its 'base case'

U.S. bank JP Morgan said on Wednesday it now expects Scotland to vote for independence and introduce its own currency before Britain leaves the European Union in 2019.

"Our base case is that Scotland will vote for independence and institute a new currency at that point (2019)," JP Morgan economist Malcolm Barr said in a note to clients on Wednesday.

 

[danny la rouge]

I'm going to put this here: Will you vote for independence?

So new friends can refer to it.

 

[danny la rouge]

5 things you need to know about Sturgeon’s trip to Brussels

 

[danny la rouge]

Hammond pushes Sturgeon towards indyref2 by making it clear Downing Street does not want a reverse Greenland solution:

New chancellor dismisses idea of separate Scottish EU deal - BBC News

 

[equationgirl]

EU funding amount partially guaranteed by Westminster but only for a few years and around £750m short of what we currently receive anyway.

Brilliant.

 

[danny la rouge]

Nicola Sturgeon challenges Theresa May with second independence referendum bill
http://www.theguardian.com/politics...endence-snp-conference?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

On the one hand I think it's too soon for indyref2, but in the other, actually let's get this done. Vague talk and pussyfooting for years will only diminish the impact. So if it's going to happen, bring it on.