Scotland and the EU: what next?

[danny la rouge]

I know that anecdotal personal testimonials are to be taken with a pinch of salt - it's a half a dozen people, you don't know that there aren't half a dozen who are now going the other way, will they do it when it comes to the ballot box etc etc - but several of my No voting friends are now saying they'll vote Yes in indyref2.

The one that has impressed me the most though is a No voting friend who says he'll abstain this time. He's always been virulently against Scottish independence, taking it as a personal insult to his identity, and who furthermore thought the SNP were "fascists" (his term) who may well deport him given the chance (to Manchester). So this is a pretty strong loathing. He's also one of those "if you don't vote you can't complain" types, "people died for your vote", "you're an intelligent man, if you don't like any of the options why don't you stand yourself" he has said to me on several occasions. So for him to say he wouldn't use his vote is a big deal. I've known him more than 20 years. If he's abstaining in indyref2, that takes a huge personal opinion shift for him.

 

[The Boy]

I know that anecdotal personal testimonials are to be taken with a pinch of salt - it's a half a dozen people, you don't know that there aren't half a dozen who are now going the other way, will they do it when it comes to the ballot box etc etc - but several of my No voting friends are now saying they'll vote Yes in indyref2.

The one that has impressed me the most though is a No voting friend who says he'll abstain this time. He's always been virulently against Scottish independence, taking it as a personal insult to his identity, and who furthermore thought the SNP were "fascists" (his term) who may well deport him given the chance (to Manchester). So this is a pretty strong loathing. He's also one of those "if you don't vote you can't complain" types, "people died for your vote", "you're an intelligent man, if you don't like any of the options why don't you stand yourself" he has said to me on several occasions. So for him to say he wouldn't use his vote is a big deal. I've known him more than 20 years. If he's abstaining in indyref2, that takes a huge personal opinion shift for him.

Again, the plural of anecdote =\= data, but I know of at least three no voters pretty much demanding a second ref. One of those virulently anti-snp

 

[danny la rouge]

As a note of caution, though, I'd point out that I agree with the Common Space analysis of Sturgeons statement: she is using very careful language. She is saying that independence isn't her only option. She is dropping pretty strong hints that staying in both the UK and the EU is an option. Indyref2 is "on the table", but it's not the only thing on the table. She has parallel processes underway. Indyref2, if it comes, might be a while off. It still needs to be won, too. So she's got backups.

 

[The Boy]

As a note of caution, though, I'd point out that I agree with the Common Space analysis of Sturgeons statement: she is using very careful language. She is saying that independence isn't her only option. She is dropping pretty strong hints that staying in both the UK and the EU is an option. Indyref2 is "on the table", but it's not the only thing on the table. She has parallel processes underway. Indyref2, if it comes, might be a while off. It still needs to be won, too. So she's got backups.

Oh aye. I also wonder if preparing for a referendum is to get UK establishment onside for the other options.

 

[danny la rouge]

As a note of caution, though, I'd point out that I agree with the Common Space analysis of Sturgeons statement: she is using very careful language. She is saying that independence isn't her only option. She is dropping pretty strong hints that staying in both the UK and the EU is an option. Indyref2 is "on the table", but it's not the only thing on the table. She has parallel processes underway. Indyref2, if it comes, might be a while off. It still needs to be won, too. So she's got backups.

Here: Brexit: Sturgeon seeks Brussels talks to protect Scotland's EU membership – live

She's not saying "post Indy", she means now, as things stand.

 

[steeplejack]

It depends- as always- on the intransigence of a hard-right Brexit government.

It actually makes sense to allow a near full independent Scotland- whose relationship withe rUK reduced to common defence only- to stay as part of the EU, as it voted. It will offer Brexit rUK access to European markets on better terms.

If however the likes of Hannan, Gove and IDS refuse to entertain it as "the UK voted as one nation and it will leave as one nation" then it will load the independence booster rocket with extremely potent fuel, and independence is inevitable. It's just a question of the timescale.

I don't much like the SNP but there isn't a better candidate than Nicola Sturgeon to make the best of the very strong hand of cards Scotland currently holds.

softly, softly though, like a cat padding on the keys of a piano, trying not to make a noise. I think there won't be another indyref before 2018 at the very earliest and the negotiations prior to that would be very, very complicated. The ideal solution is that Scotland becomes independent as part of the EU, on the same day that rUK leaves. The choreography to bring that off is mind bogglingly difficult.

 

[ska invita]

Interesting:

The European commission head, Jean-Claude Juncker, was scheduled to speak with the Scottish first minister on Friday. But when the question of Scottish independence was on the table two years ago, EU officials had insisted that were it an independent country, Scotland would have to apply to join the EU. Under the EU treaty article 49, any democratic European country can apply to join the EU.

But some experts think it is possible that the rest of the EU may agree to put Scotland on a separate fast-track process, rather than bracketing it with EU aspirants such as Albania and Turkey.

Steve Peers, professor of law at the University of Essex, has written: “It may be that the remaining EU could have more political will to welcome Scotland as an EU member than it might have had in 2014, in the interests of stemming any perception that the EU is falling apart.”



*can we move this thread to the Brexit forum please Scottish posters, you bunch of separatist you ? editor ?

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Interesting:

The European commission head, Jean-Claude Juncker, was scheduled to speak with the Scottish first minister on Friday. But when the question of Scottish independence was on the table two years ago, EU officials had insisted that were it an independent country, Scotland would have to apply to join the EU. Under the EU treaty article 49, any democratic European country can apply to join the EU.

But some experts think it is possible that the rest of the EU may agree to put Scotland on a separate fast-track process, rather than bracketing it with EU aspirants such as Albania and Turkey.

Steve Peers, professor of law at the University of Essex, has written: “It may be that the remaining EU could have more political will to welcome Scotland as an EU member than it might have had in 2014, in the interests of stemming any perception that the EU is falling apart.”



*can we move this thread to the Brexit forum please Scottish posters, you bunch of separatist you ?

tbh we'd have seen this in the event of a Scottish vote to leave the UK as well. The insistence on procedure from 2014 was empty bluster aimed at putting people off voting independence, or at the very least not being seen to be encouraging it.

 

[danny la rouge]

It depends- as always- on the intransigence of a hard-right Brexit government.

It actually makes sense to allow a near full independent Scotland- whose relationship withe rUK reduced to common defence only- to stay as part of the EU, as it voted. It will offer Brexit rUK access to European markets on better terms.

If however the likes of Hannan, Gove and IDS refuse to entertain it as "the UK voted as one nation and it will leave as one nation" then it will load the independence booster rocket with extremely potent fuel, and independence is inevitable. It's just a question of the timescale.

I don't much like the SNP but there isn't a better candidate than Nicola Sturgeon to make the best of the very strong hand of cards Scotland currently holds.

softly, softly though, like a cat padding on the keys of a piano, trying not to make a noise. I think there won't be another indyref before 2018 at the very earliest and the negotiations prior to that would be very, very complicated. The ideal solution is that Scotland becomes independent as part of the EU, on the same day that rUK leaves. The choreography to bring that off is mind bogglingly difficult.

I agree. Including the time frame. I don't actually think Brexit will be before 2018 either. Westminster will want all the best deals and treaties in place before it sets the article 50 clock ticking. That could take years, before even the 2-year-exit timetable is begun. This referendum result is not legislative. Nothing is set in motion by it. Not a thing. Juncker can shout "hurry up" all he likes, but if the next PM can bear the heat (from the EU, the world, the media, the public), Juncker can whistle until Westminster is ready.

I think that a lot of commentators and Westminster-based politicians are still misreading Sturgeon's statement, and still missing her hints. Whether deliberately so, or whether they really aren't paying attention is hard to tell. I'm thinking of Andy Burnham; he isn't as thick as he looks, so if he's missed the subtext I'd be surprised.

To be frank, I think a lot of Scot nats (small case n deliberate) are also misreading her. I've not read all of today's National yet, but it's gung ho for indyref2 from cover to cover. Sturgeon may have miscalculated and this may now be more than "highly likely": it may be unstoppable. I think she'd rather have it as a bargaining card that an actual inevitability. I actually believe her when she says she'd rather Remain had won. I don't think she likes the time scale she's been handed. But I agree with steeplejack that she'll play her strong hand as well as it can be played.

I'm in a peculiar position here: I was a last minute polling booth conversion to Remain. I still have strong Lexit sentiments, just misgivings about the framing of the referendum. I actually think an independent Scotland, if it comes about within the next decade, would be better outside the EU. But I've been reading the French press, as well as the Italian press (rather less well), and they're all talking about domino scenarios. The EU as we know it may very well not be as we know it for long.

 

[danny la rouge]

*can we move this thread to the Brexit forum please Scottish posters, you bunch of separatist you ? editor ?

I think it needs to stay put, rather than get lost in the midst of the headless chicken threads you've got going over there.

There was a different dynamic to the campaign here, a different result*, and a distinctive reaction by the devolved polity. And we can play this one in a way that isn't possible in England. Wish us luck.



*It was a UK-wide poll, yes, but having a devolved polity makes a difference to the way it's being read: perception makes a difference.

 

[danny la rouge]

Has article 50 been invoked?

 

[Pickman's model]

Fast FT

Scotland, N Ireland can stay in EU says Merkel ally

by: Duncan Robinson

Scotland and even Northern Ireland would be welcome to remain members of the EU according to Manfred Weber, a top MEP and key ally of German chancellor Angela Merkel.

Speaking to reporters on Friday morning, Mr Weber criticised the decision for Britain to leave but added: “On the Scottish level: to go the other way, it is up to them. Europe is open to new member states, that is totally clear. Those who want to stay are welcome in the European Union.”

Mr Weber, who leads the centre right EPP group in the European Parliament, also called on the British government to trigger Article 50 – which officially begins the process of leaving the EU – immediately.

“I expected them to take the necessary legal steps,” said Mr Weber.

“The decision of the people is on the table. We want to immediately start with negotiations and we do this with the approach that leave means leave. I have seen the markets and Great Britain has a bigger problem than the European Union.”

In Northern Ireland, sharp divisions are already starting to emerge between unionist and nationalist leaders as the implications of the referendum outcome begin to sink in, reports Vincent Boland in Dublin.

Arlene Foster, the first minister and Democratic Unionist party leader who supported the Leave side in the referendum campaign, has rejected a suggestion by Sinn Fein that there should be a border poll, which would be a step towards the re-unification of the island of Ireland.

Martin McGuinness, deputy first minister and senior figure in Sinn Fein, said the outcome of the referendum meant there was a “democratic imperative” for a border poll.

However, Ms Foster told BBC Radio Ulster: “There is no way, even if there was a border poll, that it would be in favour of a united Ireland.”

She said people “are quite content with the constitutional position of Northern Ireland within the UK.”

Around 55 per cent of voters in Northern Ireland – both unionist and nationalist – voted to remain in the EU, with 44 per cent – also both unionist and nationalist – voting to leave.

The gap was roughly the same as pre-referendum opinion polls had suggested.​

This raises an interesting question, namely if the 'united kingdom' ceases to exist - and without Scotland the United bit goes, not to mention the Six Cos - what would happen if England and Wales indicated they wish to remain?

 

[ska invita]

what would happen if England and Wales indicated they wish to remain?

remain in what?

 

[ska invita]

If NI and Scotland leave the UK and remain in the EU would that trigger a referendum for rUK to rejoin the EU?

 

[danny la rouge]

remain in what?

Solvent?

 

[ska invita]

I don't actually think Brexit will be before 2018 either. Westminster will want all the best deals and treaties in place before it sets the article 50 clock ticking. That could take years, before even the 2-year-exit timetable is begun. This referendum result is not legislative. Nothing is set in motion by it. Not a thing. Juncker can shout "hurry up" all he likes, but if the next PM can bear the heat (from the EU, the world, the media, the public), Juncker can whistle until Westminster is ready.

maybe not>>>>>>>>

The BBC has been told that Britain could be forced to start negotiating its departure from the EU earlier than the government had planned.

David Cameron wants to delay the start of exit talks until a new Conservative leader has been elected in October.

But Derrick Wyatt QC, emeritus professor of law at Oxford University, told the BBC that the European Council - representing the 27 other member states - could trigger the negotiating process as soon as the prime minister discusses Brexit with other EU leaders.

EU foreign ministers have joined the European Commission president, Jean-Claude Juncker, in urging the UK to begin talks as soon as possible.

 

[danny la rouge]

maybe not>>>>>>>>

The BBC has been told that Britain could be forced to start negotiating its departure from the EU earlier than the government had planned.

David Cameron wants to delay the start of exit talks until a new Conservative leader has been elected in October.

But Derrick Wyatt QC, emeritus professor of law at Oxford University, told the BBC that the European Council - representing the 27 other member states - could trigger the negotiating process as soon as the prime minister discusses Brexit with other EU leaders.

EU foreign ministers have joined the European Commission president, Jean-Claude Juncker, in urging the UK to begin talks as soon as possible.

Negotiating process maybe but only the member state can trigger article 50.

Here's article 50 (1):

1. Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements.


Here's a learned opinion on it:

Why the Article 50 notification is important

 

[coley]

'Bye' England, more like.

Mmm, with oil prices at an all time high Scotland voted to remain, now with the oil price half what it was, can Sturgeon bring it off? All depends on the largesse the EU can promise Scotland and without the contribution of the UK (sorry England and Wales and NI) the EUs coffers are going to be slightly strained, does the EU want even more non contributing members?

 

[pogofish]

Mmm, with oil prices at an all time high Scotland voted to remain, now with the oil price half what it was, can Sturgeon bring it off? All depends on the largesse the EU can promise Scotland and without the contribution of the UK (sorry England and Wales and NI) the EUs coffers are going to be slightly strained, does the EU want even more non contributing members?

With the number of job losses in the North Sea Sector, threatening to put as many as one-in-five people out of work over the next year or two in my area alone - and a significant number more right across Scotland, the power of oil as a reason to preserve the political status-quo has weakened considerably.

The threats made around the time of the Referendum seem to have come true anyway with little or no help from Westminster and IMO its in some ways like wider decimation of Scottish industry in the 1980s all over again. People who previously kept stumm for the sake of their jobs are sounding very disenchanted indeed.

And for a lot of people voting, Oil was never that much of a factor in their decision anyway - That IMO is one thing the English never seemed to properly get their heads around.

 

[coley]

With the number of job losses in the North Sea Sector, threatening to put as many as one-in-five people out of work over the next year or two in my area alone - and a significant number more right across Scotland, the power of oil as a reason to preserve the political status-quo has weakened considerably.

The threats made around the time of the Referendum seem to have come true anyway with little or no help from Westminster and IMO its in some ways like wider decimation of Scottish industry in the 1980s all over again. People who previously kept stumm for the sake of their jobs are sounding very disenchanted indeed.

And for a lot of people voting, Oil was never that much of a factor in their decision anyway - That IMO is one thing the English never seemed to properly get their heads around.

Whey, if you feel independence from the UK is preferable to dependence on the EU then go for it.
I have always been a staunch unionist but given the events and commentaries of the last few days and years, I am reluctantly of the opinion that Scotland should have the balls to do what we, the English and Welsh have done in the last week, we may have miscalculated but we will manage, time for you make up your mind for once and all and stop trying to have your cake and eat it.

 

[pogofish]

time for you make up your mind for once and all and stop trying to have your cake and eat it.

One thing - as far as the Union is concerned, I have never wanted to have my cake and eat it!

And in the European context, Scotland has a far longer and more active history of co-operation and participation than England.

 

[danny la rouge]

I've said this in the Corbyn thread, but I'm going to put it here too:

The only Scottish Labour MP. The only one. Is resigning as Shadow Scottish Secretary. This means that as well as being 3rd place at Holyrood, they'll be forced to use either a peer or an MP for an English constituency as Shadow Scot Sec just at the moment the party in Scotland looks like it's split over independence (several big names makingfavourable noises or at least acknowledging that a lot of the Labour No Vote has fled to Yes over the EU result).

This means they are disintegrating at a time that cedes the unionist leadership to the stories entirely. If No this time round is identified as a Tory affair, Yes is in a far firmer position.

 

[danny la rouge]

Scottish Labour to consider "all options" amid prospect of second independence referendum

 

[gosub]

There are regions within the EU like (Scotland) and in other member states that feel they can work with the Commission and build a EUropean demos, there are larger states working through the Council trying to hold onto their demos and a lot of smaller states in between caught between the two. The Government has yet to announce its EXIT plan. It is in every-bodies interest to calm down, and take breath. Lest we see whether the EU with its half-formed messy notions of democratic accountability IS a tool for peace or yet another divide and rule empire builder.

 

[danny la rouge]

There are regions within the EU like (Scotland) and in other member states that feel they can work with the Commission and build a EUropean demos, there are larger states working through the Council trying to hold onto their demos and a lot of smaller states in between caught between the two. The Government has yet to announce its EXIT plan. It is in every-bodies interest to calm down, and take breath. Lest we see whether the EU with its half-formed messy notions of democratic accountability IS a tool for peace or yet another divide and rule empire builder.

gosub, your posts seem to be non-sequiturs. I don't think Sturgeon is aiming to have an indyref2 if she can avoid it. She's aiming for Scotland to stay in the EU as an EU member-region of the UK (the rest of which would be out).

What is the lack of calm you're talking about?

 

[gosub]

My previous post is built round " aiming for Scotland to stay in the EU as an EU member- (the rest of which would be out). "

 

[danny la rouge]

My previous post is built round " aiming for Scotland to stay in the EU as an EU member-region of the UK (the rest of which would be out). "

So your judgement would be that this is a strategy (short or longer term) that isn't calm? I don't think the first minister shares your judgement on that.

 

[gosub]

So your judgement would be that this is a strategy (short or longer term) that isn't calm? I don't think the first minister shares your judgement on that.

If the First Minister is trusting what I suspect is Mr Juncker's council, then I would question her judgement.

 

[danny la rouge]

If the First Minister is trusting what I suspect is Mr Juncker's council, then I would question her judgement.

Does she say that? Look again at the people she is approaching, and the "every option" she is exploring:

Nicola Sturgeon says MSPs at Holyrood could veto Brexit - BBC News

 

[gosub]

Does she say that? Look again at the people she is approaching, and the "every option" she is exploring:

Nicola Sturgeon says MSPs at Holyrood could veto Brexit - BBC News

She outlined on Friday that this weekend she was phoning EUrope over the weekend. Now its next week and 'officials'. Interesting...


All without knowing what sort of out, out is.