Scotland and the EU: what next?

[danny la rouge]

So, Scotland has voted in firmly favour of the UK staying in the EU by 62% to 38% - with all 32 council areas backing Remain. UK-wide votes 52% to 48% to leave.

So what happens now?

Is there appetite for indyref2? Can we assume that enough No voters will be persuaded to change to Yes on the basis of their Remain sentiments?

Or will Sturgeon and the SNP leadership opt to negotiate for a devolved Scotland to remain in the EU while still part of a UK that is in the process of leaving? (The "Denmark option").

Will those in the SNP keen for indyref2 hold sway, or will a more cautious approach prevail?

Or what?

Here be the thread.

 

[redsquirrel]

Surely Sturgeon/SNP will wait and see how the negations with the EU go before they call for another referendum

 

[danny la rouge]

Surely Sturgeon/SNP will wait and see how the negations with the EU go before they call for another referendum

I'd have thought so. There will be enough noise going on elsewhere for them not to have to fill any awkward silences. She'll keep her counsel for the time being.

But others will not be so patient.

 

[danny la rouge]

Here's Salmond, keen to get moving on indyref2:

SNP reacts: Salmond raises prospect of new independence vote

He's no longer leader, but does he match the mood of the party?

 

[dessiato]

If there is another indy referendum I would be change my vote to independence. I think that, as much as I was against it last time, in the new circumstances it would be for the long term good of Scotland to leave the UK and align with the EU.

 

[danny la rouge]

Sturgeon is due to speak at 10.30.

 

[danny la rouge]

Journalists fixating on indyref2, understandably, but I think all the questioners missed her strong hints that she was already negotiating for Scotland to remain in the EU whether or not it votes for independence.

 

[danny la rouge]

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Of course, strictly speaking, it's not her decision.

 

[weepiper]

Of course, strictly speaking, it's not her decision.

Scotland has delivered two or three mandates for another independence referendum since 2014, the landslide for the SNP in the Westminster general election, another SNP win in the Scottish Parliament elections and now every council in Scotland delivering a Remain vote - I think it's fair to say we want one.

 

[chilango]

Bye Scotland

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Scotland has delivered two or three mandates for another independence referendum since 2014, the landslide for the SNP in the Westminster general election, another SNP win in the Scottish Parliament elections and now every council in Scotland delivering a Remain vote - I think it's fair to say we want one.

The last referendum showed that an SNP majority doesn't necessarily mean a majority for independence. I don't disagree that last night's vote brings new impetus. Maybe London can go independent too.

 

[Spymaster]

Another referendum. Scotland will vote for independence, and who can blame them?

 

[danny la rouge]

Of course, strictly speaking, it's not her decision.

She didn't say it was: that's Twitter journalese shorthand. If you saw her speech, she was detailed, specific and clear about the process.

It's worth watching. As much for what the journalists missed as for what the headlines say.

 

[danny la rouge]

The last referendum showed that an SNP majority doesn't necessarily mean a majority for independence. I don't disagree that last night's vote brings new impetus. Maybe London can go independent too.

Watch her speech: she clearly and specifically addresses this.

And in strong hints that the assembled press missed, she also laid out an alternative to her preferred option. Including timetables.

 

[ska invita]

I would strategise that it would be in the SNPs (YES) interest to move quicker on this than waiting to see how it all pans out.
People are more likely to kick against a fear of the unknown than they might against a resolution to the UK Leave that in fact doesn't make much difference
But thats just speculation. It would make much more sense to wait of course.

 

[ska invita]

If there's a new EU fallout subforum (looks likely) would you vote to move this thread IN to that subforum or stay OUT in the Alba fourm? The first big political choice...

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Could be a situation where Scotland votes for independence and negotiates a re-entry (or possibly a 'never-really-left') into the EU, but keeps the pound. Its 'independence' would be interestingly constrained.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Watch her speech: she clearly and specifically addresses this.

And in strong hints that the assembled press missed, she also laid out an alternative to her preferred option. Including timetables.

Fair dos.

 

[danny la rouge]

Fast FT

Scotland, N Ireland can stay in EU says Merkel ally

by: Duncan Robinson

Scotland and even Northern Ireland would be welcome to remain members of the EU according to Manfred Weber, a top MEP and key ally of German chancellor Angela Merkel.

Speaking to reporters on Friday morning, Mr Weber criticised the decision for Britain to leave but added: “On the Scottish level: to go the other way, it is up to them. Europe is open to new member states, that is totally clear. Those who want to stay are welcome in the European Union.”

Mr Weber, who leads the centre right EPP group in the European Parliament, also called on the British government to trigger Article 50 – which officially begins the process of leaving the EU – immediately.

“I expected them to take the necessary legal steps,” said Mr Weber.

“The decision of the people is on the table. We want to immediately start with negotiations and we do this with the approach that leave means leave. I have seen the markets and Great Britain has a bigger problem than the European Union.”

In Northern Ireland, sharp divisions are already starting to emerge between unionist and nationalist leaders as the implications of the referendum outcome begin to sink in, reports Vincent Boland in Dublin.

Arlene Foster, the first minister and Democratic Unionist party leader who supported the Leave side in the referendum campaign, has rejected a suggestion by Sinn Fein that there should be a border poll, which would be a step towards the re-unification of the island of Ireland.

Martin McGuinness, deputy first minister and senior figure in Sinn Fein, said the outcome of the referendum meant there was a “democratic imperative” for a border poll.

However, Ms Foster told BBC Radio Ulster: “There is no way, even if there was a border poll, that it would be in favour of a united Ireland.”

She said people “are quite content with the constitutional position of Northern Ireland within the UK.”

Around 55 per cent of voters in Northern Ireland – both unionist and nationalist – voted to remain in the EU, with 44 per cent – also both unionist and nationalist – voting to leave.

The gap was roughly the same as pre-referendum opinion polls had suggested.​

 

[danny la rouge]

No voters changing their minds to support independence after UK votes to leave EU

"No voters took to Twitter and Facebook to say they had changed their mind on whether Scotland should take control of its own decisions.

One of the most emotional was lawyer Katy Melvin who said: “I would have laid down my life for the Union yesterday. Joined SNP an hour ago.”"

 

[74drew]

This guy thinks Sturgeon may be keeping her options open.

Stephen McKee: Why we should pay attention to Sturgeon's "common cause" with London remark

IN the rush to ask their pre-prepared questions about indyref2, journalists may have missed some important hints that Nicola Sturgeon laid before them. In her clear and measured statement at Bute House, she made a series of comments that may have hinted that she has in place plans that do not need to await the outcome of a possible second independence referendum.

Drawing particular attention to the single market, the first minister said: "I intend to take all possible steps and explore all possible options to give effect to how people in Scotland voted - in other words to secure our continuing place in the EU, and in the single market in particular."

The assembled press focussed on this, referring to a future independent Scotland and the second referendum that Sturgeon said was now highly likely. But taken together with other comments, this may also be a hint that her team was already negotiating for the possibility of a devolved Scotland that, at least for a time, stays inside the EU even though the rest of the UK is outside of it.

This is not without precedent: although Denmark is in the EU, two of its 'home nations', the Faroe Islands and Greenland, are not.

"We will also be seeking direct discussions with the EU institutions and its member states including the earliest possible meeting with the president of the European Commission," Sturgeon indicated. While this on its own may be read as simply intended to reassure, it also contains the kernel of a strong signal that she was considering more than one option for Scotland.

 

[krtek a houby]

Could be a situation where Scotland votes for independence and negotiates a re-entry (or possibly a 'never-really-left') into the EU, but keeps the pound. Its 'independence' would be interestingly constrained.

Better than being in the "UK", though.

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

Thought an independent Scotland can't join the EU as Spain would block it?

 

[gosub]

What was the Sadiq Khan reference she made to do with?


Otherwise I think she has overcooked it. Still think OUT is the EEA option, so rUK would still have free market access and she'd be arguing for fractal dismantling of member state via back door remain of EU. IS the borders/euro all the the stuff from the last referendum writ real. Anyway time will tell

 

[pogofish]

Bye Scotland

'Bye' England, more like.

 

[bi0boy]

'Bye' England, more like.

Everyone forgets about Wales. Maybe we should invent yet another portmanteau of Wangland for the bit of the UK that will be left when all this fuss is over with

 

[pogofish]

Everyone forgets about Wales.

Not forgotten them - More pity for Wales than anything else.

 

[Bernie Gunther]

Galloway seems good for amateur astronomers ...

 

[danny la rouge]

This is a significant turnaround from the Daily Record, who not only campaigned against independence, but also hosted, and allegedly were instrumental in the thinking behind, the infamous Vow, which they ran as a front page. Now they are running this as their front page: