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Palm: Pre, webOS & app discussion

How nice of Palm the nice corporation...
Sorry to spoil your glee, but it can be turned off.

"You go to "Location Services" on the Pre you can turn off background collection no matter what you picked the first time you turned on the phone.

I leave everything turned off - GPS, Background Data Collection, Auto Locate, everything. And it doesn't effect programs that use GPS at all! The program will ask you whether or not you want to turn GPS on."

http://www.engadget.com/2009/08/12/pre-phones-home-with-your-location-which-explains-the-black-hel/
 
Ah, Palm have been (very) quick to release an official statement:
Palm takes privacy very seriously, and offers users ways to turn data collecting services on and off. Our privacy policy is like many policies in the industry and includes very detailed language about potential scenarios in which we might use a customer's information, all toward a goal of offering a great user experience. For instance, when location based services are used, we collect their information to give them relevant local results in Google Maps. We appreciate the trust that users give us with their information, and have no intention to violate that trust.
 
Engadget said:
The biggest change appears to be a fix for that nasty bug that caused the Pre to reset or turn off when the keyboard was closed -- that bit of grey foam pictured was added to the battery compartment to tighten up the battery connection. There's a also word that the screen cracking and unintended rotation issues have been addressed, although time will tell on those, and the button color has changed from pearl to silver. As for improvements, well, there's a new battery model, and the Palm logo is now embossed on the carrying case. Yep, just little stuff, but it's good to see Palm addressing the build issues on the Pre, which are by far the most common complaint about the device.

It looks like Palm are listening to customers. Maybe not so bad for those waiting for a UK release.
 
A lot of rumours are circulating about Palm's financial health after analysts begin to cut their predictions following disappointing sales figures. Brutally put, initial sales haven't met up to expectations, the network hasn't gained the customers it'd like and the handset's seemingly failing to dent (in particular) customer loyalty to Apple and Blackberry. Even the Blackberry Storm, of all blinking handsets, seems to have produced a more obvious upturn for its carrier.With new Android handsets on the way it's looking potentially grim for Palm, with analysts quick to point out future funding difficulties.

More detail here:
http://www.toptechnews.com/story.xhtml?story_id=0120016HEP8O&page=1

More of the same elsewhere and suddenly a lot of the positivity over the platform is beginning to disipate. It's going to be a much more difficult path for Palm than expected by the looks of it, one that I'm not convinced it'll survive.
 
A lot of rumours are circulating about Palm's financial health after analysts begin to cut their predictions following disappointing sales figures.

They have been in the shit for a long time, the share price is about 15 dollars which is a joke. The Pre is really their do or die move.
 
No doubts about that, but the positivity over the launch and analyst predictions gave them a decent negotiating position with the networks and investors.

Now they're a little bit more constricted, to say the least.
 
Their problem was they released it a bit late. If Apple hadn't entered the phone market, we would all be falling over for this phone because its a great phone. The UI would be revolutionary.

But now the world and its dog has release a touch screen phone. People who would have bought it, like me for instance, are locked into iPhones. I evangelise it to others. They buy the phone.

The king for consumers is Apple with its UI. King for business is the RIM with its keyboard. Android is starting to gather pace due to the number of phones manufacturers are releasing.

However Palm are viewed in the US or here, they are a bit late to market and are going to have to work damn hard to get the acceptance they require. Their biggest fail is not making it reasonably priced contract free and locking it to any one carrier. Huge failure as far as I can see. I might have bought one, but I'm not going to get locked into another long contract for anything other than a new iPhone and I don't mean the GS.
 
Or more likely: disappointing sales in US mean less economies of scale and the repositioning of the Palm as more of a premium niche product.
 
Brutally put, initial sales haven't met up to expectations, the network hasn't gained the customers it'd like and the handset's seemingly failing to dent (in particular) customer loyalty to Apple and Blackberry. .
None of the analysts have the slightest clue about the actual sales figures, and some are painting a very different picture to your doom'n'gloom scenario:
Pacific Crest analyst James Faucette writes that his checks find that monthly sell-through of the Pre in August is “trending up slightly sequentially” versus run-rates at the end of July. He contends the improvement reflect better advertising, improved supply and strong word-of-mouth. That said, Faucette adds that further acceleration is going to be requried to meet his August quarter sales estimate of 750,000 units. He maintains his Outperform rating and $17 price target, and still thinks the company’s WebOS and software development team could be more to a potential acquirer - he mentions Nokia and Motorola - than as a stand-alone company.

http://blogs.barrons.com/techtraderdaily/2009/08/17/palm-pre-sales-pick-up-in-august-or-maybe-not/
 
Whilst it's always tempting to take analyst reports with a pinch of salt, there's a head of steam building up that's affecting Palm's share price and negotiating position. From a quick Google:

Grozovsky cut his estimate on Palm (NASDAQ: PALM) Pre unit sales for the August quarter to 350,000 from 400,000, which he says is already low relative to Wall Street expectations. He downgraded Palm to "sell" from "hold."

"We believe that our 400,000 units estimate for Pre was a low estimate relative to Street expectations and, as a result, believe that should the company even achieve these numbers, it would be viewed as a disappointment by investors," the research note said.

If JNK wireless consultant iGR (quoted in TechChrunch) is to be believed, Palm Pre sales are not as high as other analysts seem to think. As expected, the sales rate has dropped somewhat since the launch date, but iGR is estimating that Pre sales have dropped to and stabilized around 22,000 - 25,000 units a week, from a launch week high of 140,000, adding up to a to-date total of around 320,000 sales. Sprint’s inventory of Pre phones has reached a supply-demand stabilization point (which bodes well for Bell customers in Canada).


Either way, the bullish stance of one of Palm's investors is looking a long way from reality now and momentum's being lost:

You know the beautiful thing: June 29, 2009, is the two-year anniversary of the first shipment of the iPhone. Not one of those people will still be using an iPhone a month later. - Roger McNamee, Elevation Partners - March 05, 2009
 
Add to that, there's no reason for Palm to keep mum after being so cocky. Particularly when the massive success of the Apple iphone in the last quarter is drawing media attention:

The early results are in and it doesn’t look good for Palm. Today, Apple announced their third quarter results for the fiscal year 2009, a three month period sales period which ended on June 27. Apple’s quarterly sales numbers represent a non holiday record for the Cupertino based company. Highlights include overall global revenue of $8.34 billion with a net quarterly profit of $1.23 billion. Apple sold a whopping 5.2 million iPhones which, according to Techcrunch, represents a 626 percent growth over the equivalent quarter last year. Twice as many iPhones were sold in the last quarter as Mac computers (2.6 million), thereby symbolizing Apple’s shift from a personal computer maker to a provider of wireless entertainment and communications devices.
What’s really scary about the Apple numbers is that they barely include sales figures for the new 3GS iphone which only became available a few days before the end of their quarter

More here on the Telegraph blogs
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/technology/andrewkeen/100002376/is-apple-taking-palm-to-the-smartphone-cleaners/
 
Add to that, there's no reason for Palm to keep mum after being so cocky. Particularly when the massive success of the Apple iphone in the last quarter is drawing media attention:
What a bizarre article. No one in their right mind expected the Pre to be outselling the iPhone at this ridiculously early stage.

The Pre is a brand new handset running a brand new operating system. There's only one phone available, it hasn't been offered for sale anywhere else in the world but the US, (and then only on one, lower ranked network), and with Palm being something like 25 times smaller than Apple they haven't a hope in hell of matching their advertising reach.

They have, however, created a very exciting new OS with huge potential and the phone has picked up a phenomenal buzz, so it's plain weird to write them off at such an early stage.

As a comment on that (nearly a month old) article rightly points out:
Apple sells their phones worldwide and has a 3 year brand advantage. Palm is selling their phone on the third place carrier in the US only. Being able to sell one million phones into a very competitive market isn’t bad. If Palm can improve this phone with updates, and continue to improve webOS, by their next gen phone they will really start to compete. Don’t be an Apple fan boy, at least feign lack of bias.
 
It's not just one article though, is it?

From Businessweek:

Due to the slightly disappointing sales this may cause difficulties when Palm approach other carriers, one expert said “If Sprint can’t prove that the Pre is an iPhone killer, it’ll really affect the level of subsidies”.

I'd agree that it's too early to count Palm out entirely. But the promotional silence hardly bodes well for a company so bullish before. Palm needs momentum, particularly with new Android phones on the horizon, and it's not achieving that to the degree I would have expected. So much depends on rapid growth and success:

Palm's budget Eos smartphone is rumored today to be on hold due to worries over Pre sales. The Centro replacement, nicknamed "Pixie," is said by contacts in Asia to still be under development but that its actual launch is frozen until Palm has "better visibility" of how well the Pre and other existing phones are selling
www.electronista.com
 
All I'm seeing is a bunch of rumours, 'maybes' and some fairly wild speculation there. The Eos phone hasn't even been officially announced and seeing as no one had a clue about the Pre until its official announcement, I'll take that blog comment with a ton of scepticism.

This article you linked to on the electronista site certainly caught my eye and - if true - may prove to have an impact on network provider's choice of handsets/partners in the future:
The analyst group maintains that "not one" provider offering the iPhone has seen a financial or market share boost since adding it to their rosters. In many cases, these companies have either seen reduced profit from the heavy subsidies needed for the iPhone or haven't seen the surge in data revenues they expected from customers moving to more expensive smartphone plans.

http://www.reuters.com/article/tech...20090817?feedType=RSS&feedName=technologyNews

Edit to add- here's a more credible take on the supposed 'delay' to the Eos:
Palm Wars Episode V: The Analysts Strike Back. Not long after throwing Palm’s stock into the clearance bin, Morgan Joseph analyst Ilya Grozovsky has penned another research note on Palm.

This time he’s claiming that the unannounced non-slider Eos/Pixie webOS smartphone has been delayed from its unannounced 2009 holiday season to next year. Grozovsky stated that Palm will need to put all its muscle behind the Eos if it hopes to compete against the $99 iPhone 3G currently on AT&T (the Eos is rumored to be landing on AT&T - and Sprint - at $99).

No sources, even of the completely anonymous variety, were cited, leading us to advise that this is to be taken with considerable sodium chloride. Note also the scare quotes about "delayed" in the title - it's hard to call something 'delayed' when we know so little about what the original plans for it were in the first place.

Ok, one anonymous tip we received earlier in the month was that prototype units of the Eos on Sprint had at least made their way out of Palm HQ -- so the thing probably exists out there in Sprintland.

http://www.precentral.net/pixieeos-delayed-2010
 
Another day another person I know has a blackberry, virtualy everyone I know has a BB or iPhone now. Palm seriously have their work cut out for them, in fact I wouldn't be surprised at this point if the Pre flops in the UK...
 
All I'm seeing is a bunch of rumours, 'maybes' and some fairly wild speculation there.

They didnt have the huge burst of opening sales they hoped for, and there is a load riding on this. What the share price says is that the industry doesn't think it has it in it.

ETA: The problem for palm is that having a good feature set at a good price is not enough, it needs to break through the now dominated market.

That of course can be wrong, the fact that things are vague is what would put me on the defensive. If things were good they would be shouting it from the rooftops.
 
I'd be interested in getting a Pre but 6 months to go on the ol' contract. I'm not signing another monster 18 month contract for the Pre.

They should have gone for serious cheap with the good UI and keyboard off contract. Seriously undercutting the iPhone I would have been very interested in it when my contract ran out, but they have gone the single carrier Apple route.

I can only think they had $$$ in their eyes when doing this, rather than looking at the bottom line.

The Pre was announced at the beginning of the year. Its August now and the GSM version, the version that can make them real money still isn't here. Launching the EVDO phone 1st isn't one of Palm's greatest decisions. The more I look at that decision, the more I'm baffled. The could have sold it to a bigger US operator and also to the rest of the English speaking world.
 
Another day another person I know has a blackberry, virtualy everyone I know has a BB or iPhone now. Palm seriously have their work cut out for them, in fact I wouldn't be surprised at this point if the Pre flops in the UK...
I don't think the UK market has ever been a particular big concern for Palm - even when they were dominating the smartphone market with the massively successful Treo, they remained comparatively rare phones over here.

As for the Pre "flopping" or not, it seems a ridiculously premature to be posting such negative opinions before the thing has even got a firm UK release confirmation, let alone a release date.
They didnt have the huge burst of opening sales they hoped for, and there is a load riding on this. What the share price says is that the industry doesn't think it has it in it..
Unless you know something I don't, neither the sales figures or Palm's target numbers have been released.

I don't think the share price is much of an indicator at the moment seeing as it's responding to speculation and they've been going up and down for months (but still remain in rude health compared to last year).
 
They need cash NOW! :)

Yeah true so where does the EVDO decision come into that?

GSM = Everybody
EVDO = Nobody

It stands to reason the engineering department could have turned out a GSM phone in the same time as the EVDO version? That can't even do data and phone at the same time!

'You know that restaurant I was talking about, um forgotten its name, hang on I'm going to have to call you back to look it up'

Crazy decision.
 
Simple they are broke and couldn't afford to do it, so they correctly targeted the market where they have the most brand awareness.
Exactly. They must have spent an absolute fortune developing the new webOS and the Pre, so it makes sense to use their limited resources releasing the handset in a market where they are still a fairly respected brand.

Don't forget, Palm are really quite tiny compared to most of the other big players like Nokia, Apple, Blackberry etc.
 
The US market is a fine place to choose, but EVDO makes no sense there either really. The operator is small and once you buy a Pre your limited to just either Verizon or Sprint so when your contract runs out you have a choice of two or bin the phone.
 
Exactly. They must have spent an absolute fortune developing the new webOS and the Pre, so it makes sense to use their limited resources releasing the handset in a market where they are still a fairly respected brand.

Don't forget, Palm are really quite tiny compared to most of the other big players like Nokia, Apple, Blackberry etc.

Thats why I think they are probably going to be taken over by someone like Nokia. It makes sense the Symbian s60 ecosystem that a lot of the higher end nokia's are in is... shit compared to what apple and to a lesser extend RIM have done.

Your right the exact numbers have not been released, but a lot of people are losing their confidence because the share price drive when due to the hype of the pre, its now in the market and doesn't appear to be the runaway success they need.

They needed people queuing up in the street, and it did not happen on the scale that was required, and this is in their strongest market.

The fight is not over yet, but its not a great start.
 
They needed people queuing up in the street, and it did not happen on the scale that was required, and this is in their strongest market.
To be fair, at no point did Palm (or Sprint) even suggest that they were expecting masses of people queuing in the street.

I really wouldn't pay much attention to the share price either - it's been going up and down all over the place in recent months, usually fuelled by groundless speculation.

They have been linked with several takeover rumours. I thought Dell made the most sense, but Palm doesn't seem too keen on the idea as far as I can see.
 
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