London: the unlockening/relockening

[ska invita]

Cases were going up in London when they lifted lockdown 2
night is following day

 

[teuchter]

In a pandemic full of predictable failures, setting inappropriate tiers for the South was one of the more predictable, since it was already clear by the time that they announced the tiers that things had gone badly wrong there even before the national restrictions ended.

Now they are left shitting bricks because things are very bad. Despite their attempts to frame things as being a story of cases exploding in secondary schools, the rise in infections is clearly much broader than that because the hospital admissions data has been on a hideous trajectory for much of December. I just posted a graph about it on the main UK thread #26,740

Is that info broken down per London area?

The map still shows quite a large difference between outer and inner London... and NE vs SW. By a factor of 4 or 5 in many cases.

 

[Artaxerxes]

That big patch of purple by loughton is Epping Forest.

The deer have Covid because there's bugger all residents, mind you the pub at high beech is almost certainly an infection hotspot either because it's open or where the moped and Ka drivers go to do wheelies.

 

[Sue]

Is that info broken down per London area?

The map still shows quite a large difference between outer and inner London... and NE vs SW. By a factor of 4 or 5 in many cases.

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What do you mean by outer and inner though? Some of those bad bits of E London are zone 2 which I'd say is inner...?

 

[Pickman's model]

What do you mean by outer and inner though? Some of those bad bits of E London are zone 2 which I'd say is inner...?

he doesn't know what he's on about and he seems unable to include the legend indicating what the colours indicate

 

[elbows]

Is that info broken down per London area?

I can see admissions and other hospital data down to the hospital trust level, but not beyond that. But I only get that data once a week, on a Thursday, and for example the latest data I have goes up to December 6th, so its missing the latest rises.

So I should wait till this Thursdays data really, and I'm not a Londoner so people will have to guide me as to which trusts are of interest. But here are some examples from the last set of data.

Daily Covid-19 hospital admissions/diagnoses, with the blue line an attempt to show smoothed trend via rolling averages.

 

[Pickman's model]

I can see admissions and other hospital data down to the hospital trust level, but not beyond that. But I only get that data once a week, on a Thursday, and for example the latest data I have goes up to December 6th, so its missing the latest rises.

So I should wait till this Thursdays data really, and I'm not a Londoner so people will have to guide me as to which trusts are of interest. But here are some examples from the last set of data.

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you might want to adjust the y axis on the barts chart: if you find you've 7.5 or 22.5 people something has gone horribly wrong somewhere

 

[elbows]

I'm too busy lobbying the government to have pedantry banned in all tiers.

 

[Pickman's model]

I'm too busy lobbying the government to have pedantry banned in all tiers.

what would be more useful to accompany your charts is some information about occupancy within those hospitals, how long covid patients are staying in them.

 

[Pickman's model]

London likely to enter tier 3 Covid restrictions to curb surge in cases

Pubs, restaurants and bars may close week before Christmas to stem rising number of cases in capital

www.theguardian.com

streeting's obviously never heard to auld saying 'lies. damned lies, and statistics'

 

[elbows]

what would be more useful to accompany your charts is some information about occupancy within those hospitals, how long covid patients are staying in them.

My interest is mostly in admissions/diagnoses because these are a fair indicator of levels of infection within vulnerable populations, I tend to use these instead of focusing so much on number of positive cases.

I can provide number of Covid-19 patients in hospital beds. There is also another hospital data source that I am not very familiar with yet, if some of its data is useful I'm sure I will get round to presenting it at some point.

 

[Pickman's model]

My interest is mostly in admissions/diagnoses because these are a fair indicator of levels of infection within vulnerable populations, I tend to use these instead of focusing so much on number of positive cases.

I can provide number of Covid-19 patients in hospital beds. There is also another hospital data source that I am not very familiar with yet, if some of its data is useful I'm sure I will get round to presenting it at some point.

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thank you

 

[elbows]

Some caveats with this sort of data:

It will include people who were in hospital for other reasons and then caught Covid-19 in hospital and then got picked up by hospital testing.

If trusts manage the load by redirecting some patients to other trusts I wont know about it, so I would advise not taking these stats as a literal picture of which areas of population are worst affected.

 

[teuchter]

What do you mean by outer and inner though? Some of those bad bits of E London are zone 2 which I'd say is inner...?

I simply mean as a general trend: more central parts of London seem to tend to have lower rates than the less central parts. Obviously there's not going to be a hard boundary between better and worse.

 

[teuchter]

.

 

[nagapie]

Where's Lambeth and Southwark?

 

[teuchter]

Where's Lambeth and Southwark?

Same place as usual as far as I know

 

[teuchter]

 

[Pickman's model]

.

 

[Pickman's model]

View attachment 244551

.

But what do you think?

 

[nagapie]

Same place as usual as far as I know

I meant are they not purple because not named. But ho hum.

 

[Pickman's model]

I meant are they not purple because not named. But ho hum.

Much of Barnet purple but not named. They should I think have indicated at least borough names

 

[Puddy_Tat]

I meant are they not purple because not named. But ho hum.

What place names come up on internet maps is a bit variable.

It's not attempting to name boroughs (e.g. Catford, Dulwich, Brixton have never been boroughs) and the borough of Lambeth has always been bigger than the locality of Lambeth.

And WTF is 'Abbeville Village'?

the individual coloured lumps are "Middle Layer Super Output Areas" whatever the heck they are...

 

[teuchter]

But what do you think?

I think the maps speak for themselves.

 

[Pickman's model]

I think the maps speak for themselves.

What do they say to you?

 

[IC3D]

Speaking from experience elbows there are high numbers of asymptomatic covid patients in amber wards atm. Picked up by swabs on admission for unrelated illness.

 

[nagapie]

Speaking from experience elbows there are high numbers of asymptomatic covid patients in amber wards atm. Picked up by swabs on admission for unrelated illness.

Don't they send them home to isolate?

 

[IC3D]

Don't they send them home to isolate?

Not if they turned up at A&E clinically unwell. They are moved to siderooms. Hospitals filling up rapidly now as community infections taking off again

 

[teuchter]

What do they say to you?

"Ignore Pickman's Twaddle".

 

[nagapie]

Not if they turned up at A&E clinically unwell. They are moved to siderooms. Hospitals filling up rapidly now as community infections taking off again

Ah, yes, misread that as concentrated on the word asymptomatic.