London: the unlockening/relockening

[Teaboy]

I wonder what tier 3 will achieve that lockdown 2 didn't? Slow it a bit I guess like lockdown 2.

Christ I really wish they'd they'd close the schools a week early and get them back a week later. Or at least do something with the schools rather than a collective shrug.

 

[teuchter]

I have a couple of friends who are primary school teachers (south london).
The last one I spoke to, about a week ago, said that things were pretty much carrying on as normal at her school and there had not been any particular disruption.

 

[IC3D]

Here's what the map looks like now

View attachment 242512

At a glance hospitals serving these purple areas were swamped in the first wave. Newham and Whipps, the poor relations of Barts Trust. Troubling to see this.

 

[Teaboy]

I have a couple of friends who are primary school teachers (south london).
The last one I spoke to, about a week ago, said that things were pretty much carrying on as normal at her school and there had not been any particular disruption.

There is a significant difference in impact between primary and secondary schools. That being there are quite a lot of cases still.

 

[teuchter]

There is a significant difference in impact between primary and secondary schools. That being there are quite a lot of cases still.

That would explain it I guess. The last two cases of Covid I've heard about amongst friends/work contacts have been related to teenage kids testing positive (and family isolating as a result).

E2A: I shouldn't really be posting up my anecdata as if it necessarily means much.

 

[elbows]

I wouldn't say that the situation in primary schools is much better than in secondary schools. The implications vary because of things like different bubble sizes and different childcare implications when there are outbreaks.

I suspect the primary school situation is actually worse than the impression some people have.

The following sort of data is hardly a complete guide but it does contain clues.


From https://assets.publishing.service.g...-19_and_Influenza_Surveillance_Graphs_W49.pdf

 

[Teaboy]

Oh.

 

[quimcunx]

I wouldn't say that the situation in primary schools is much better than in secondary schools. The implications vary because of things like different bubble sizes and different childcare implications when there are outbreaks.

I suspect the primary school situation is actually worse than the impression some people have.

The following sort of data is hardly a complete guide but it does contain clues.

View attachment 242521
From https://assets.publishing.service.g...-19_and_Influenza_Surveillance_Graphs_W49.pdf

I think there would be more primary schools than secondary schools in any one area, if that matters.

 

[elbows]

Yeah, which is why I'm not trying to make a huge claim, just counter the impression some seem to have that primary schools have got off relatively unscathed.

 

[Sue]

Was just posting on the Hackney thread that numbers are going up round here (though the bits that were very badly affected before look to be doing okayish now). And yeah, looks bad a bit further east/north.

 

[Spandex]

I think just by focusing on individual boroughs or London as a whole misses the bigger picture of the spread of Covid in the south east.

I've been watching the south east figures for the past few weeks partly to inform the decision of whether to visit my mum for Xmas in south east London (or north west Kent as she prefers to call it). From what I've seen the roots of the current rise in figures go back before the last lockdown. Covid was taking off in north Kent and would've exploded disastrously if not for the lockdown, which held back the tide and saw falls in some of the worst affected areas (Swale, Thanet).

As lockdown 2 limped to its conclusion cases were already spreading along the north Kent coast - Medway, Gravesend, down to Maidstone. Since then cases have been steadily rising further south in Kent (the MP for Ashford was very outspoken against Kent going into Tier 3; cases there have risen 49.8% in the last week), into east London and along the south Essex coast. Most of the Thames estuary area has seen significant rises in the last week or two.

At first in London it seemed to be the north East that was seeing the biggest rise in cases. Even as London was declared Tier 2 case numbers were rising significantly in some areas such as Redbridge. Now cases are rising across most of the east - Bromley up 30% in the last week, Havering up 32.4% - and some central boroughs and western suburbs. Hackney up 33.3% in a week. Lambeth up 28.5%. Haringey up 54.3%. Some areas to the west are still doing okay - Hammersmith, Ealing, Brent, Hounslow are all down in the last week. But the spread has so far been continuing.

My mum is fine about us not visiting for Xmas this year.

 

[Puddy_Tat]

i'm in similar difficulties - i've not seen mum-tat since last xmas (i was going to go round for her birthday in february but i had a bit of a cold or something so postponed for a couple of weeks...)

blargh

 

[cupid_stunt]

There's been a serious spread from north Kent heading south over the last week, Maidstone is now over 400 cases per 100k, and Tunbridge Wells is taking off now.

 

[Spandex]

There's been a serious spread from north Kent heading south over the last week, Maidstone is now over 400 cases per 100k, and Tunbridge Wells is taking off now.

View attachment 242568

I think because it's so far only affecting a bit of Kent, a bit of Essex and parts of London it's been possible to overlook this spread to some extent when considering whole counties/the whole city. But Covid doesn't care about administrative boundaries.

 

[Puddy_Tat]

But Covid doesn't care about administrative boundaries.

indeed. and when you get to london, it's a damn sight more difficult - mum-tat lives in lewisham borough, two streets away is greenwich and two streets away in the other direction is bromley...

 

[Teaboy]

I think just by focusing on individual boroughs or London as a whole misses the bigger picture of the spread of Covid in the south east.

I've been watching the south east figures for the past few weeks partly to inform the decision of whether to visit my mum for Xmas in south east London (or north west Kent as she prefers to call it). From what I've seen the roots of the current rise in figures go back before the last lockdown. Covid was taking off in north Kent and would've exploded disastrously if not for the lockdown, which held back the tide and saw falls in some of the worst affected areas (Swale, Thanet).

As lockdown 2 limped to its conclusion cases were already spreading along the north Kent coast - Medway, Gravesend, down to Maidstone. Since then cases have been steadily rising further south in Kent (the MP for Ashford was very outspoken against Kent going into Tier 3; cases there have risen 49.8% in the last week), into east London and along the south Essex coast. Most of the Thames estuary area has seen significant rises in the last week or two.

At first in London it seemed to be the north East that was seeing the biggest rise in cases. Even as London was declared Tier 2 case numbers were rising significantly in some areas such as Redbridge. Now cases are rising across most of the east - Bromley up 30% in the last week, Havering up 32.4% - and some central boroughs and western suburbs. Hackney up 33.3% in a week. Lambeth up 28.5%. Haringey up 54.3%. Some areas to the west are still doing okay - Hammersmith, Ealing, Brent, Hounslow are all down in the last week. But the spread has so far been continuing.

My mum is fine about us not visiting for Xmas this year.

Yes, all good points. The situation in London is really just reflecting the wider situation in vast swathes of the South East, which makes sense really because large parts of it are now essentially one conurbation.

 

[RubyToogood]

Here's what the map looks like now

View attachment 242512

Where does this map come from?

 

[spitfire]

Year 2 at Mini Fire's school (Hackney/Tower hamlets borders) all sent home to isolate. First big thing that has happened in the school since they went back. Mini Fire is Year 3.

 

[teuchter]

Where does this map come from?

Official UK Coronavirus Dashboard

GOV.UK Coronavirus dashboard

coronavirus.data.gov.uk

 

[Numbers]

Appeared y/day. Makes no difference to the maskless cunts.

 

[Cloo]

Bro in law working in public health says London cases doubled in last week - Tier 3 is on its way, but I can't see what earthly difference it makes at this point, especially if people are allowed to visit each other in Christmas week.

 

[Pickman's model]

Bro in law working in public health says London cases doubled in last week - Tier 3 is on its way, but I can't see what earthly difference it makes at this point, especially if people are allowed to visit each other in Christmas week.

Johnson thinks this will so confuse everyone no one will notice crashing out no deal

 

[Pickman's model]

Appeared y/day. Makes no difference to the maskless cunts.

View attachment 243300

I see they've socially isolated the sign

 

[Teaboy]

Bro in law working in public health says London cases doubled in last week - Tier 3 is on its way, but I can't see what earthly difference it makes at this point, especially if people are allowed to visit each other in Christmas week.

Yes its quite clear that the recent rise is being driven by a number of factors and shutting hospitality didn't halt it in lockdown 2. I'm 100% confident that London will go into tier 3 but there are dissenting voices and I do understand where they are coming from.

Covid-19: Moving London into tier 3 would be “big mistake,” warns leading epidemiologist

A leading epidemiologist has urged the government not to put the UK capital into strict tier 3 measures next week, saying the move would be a “big mistake.” Tim Spector, professor of genetic epidemiology at King’s College London and creator of the Covid Symptom Study app,1 was responding to...

www.bmj.com

 

[Pickman's model]

the wheels on the bus come off off off

 

[Teaboy]

It seems quite apparent to me that in a lot of areas there are enough people who have largely given up on the restrictions / rules. Combine that with the everlasting clusterfuck which is the school situation I can see tier 3 lasting a very long time.

 

[Sue]

Looking at Official UK Coronavirus Dashboard, E London, NE London, Essex and Kent are a wave of dark blue and purple. SE London isn't looking great either. They really need to move London into Tier 3 now.

 

[andysays]

Hancock making an announcement at 15.30, apparently.

 

[Pickman's model]

Hancock making an announcement at 15.30, apparently.

resignation hopefully

 

[elbows]

In a pandemic full of predictable failures, setting inappropriate tiers for the South was one of the more predictable, since it was already clear by the time that they announced the tiers that things had gone badly wrong there even before the national restrictions ended.

Now they are left shitting bricks because things are very bad. Despite their attempts to frame things as being a story of cases exploding in secondary schools, the rise in infections is clearly much broader than that because the hospital admissions data has been on a hideous trajectory for much of December. I just posted a graph about it on the main UK thread #26,740