YouSir
Retired from Urban
Vote DVD case for 2020?
Labour leadership
- Thread starter oryx
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Vote DVD case for 2020?
DotCommunist
So many particulars. So many questions.
from mensh to sawford to this cunt-they go either way- part of its the boundries, villages/town/estates split and all that
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
Well OK, but one large assumption that you confirmed was that the 'what-if' was made "...with everything else remaining constant..". In itself, that is a very large assumption.
The point is that in the majority of those 330 constituencies it really doesn't matter if Lab re-attracted all the NV...the tories would still win.
ska invita
back on the other side
My review of PMQs: all good by Corbyn, but I dont think Cameron was under any pressure - instead just got to say what he wanted to say without being cross-examined, as JC just moved on after each question to ask another. Still, acting the serious statesman could really work. And anything that stops the braying has to be a good thing.
(going to see the Compton movie tomorrow
)
before you wreck yo' set
(going to see the Compton movie tomorrow
)
billy_bob
Air of bewilderment model's own
Which does matter in terms of mandate - which is relevant for a party that might be taking a significantly different approach to that of recent years on a wide range of issues. But that's only any use if you get enough bums on those green sofas in the first place.
belboid
Exasperated, not angry.
in the 100 odd marginals, all the NV's would be way more than Labour needed. I'd like to see how they did there gaining 20% of them (the maximum realistic figure, imo)
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
Yes, it's only the marginals that count. And it's there that the demographics tend to weigh against the left making any serious gains from former NVs. Whilst it is possible to model the effects by projected %, the reality remains...however politically unpalatable, that the Con->Lab swing voter in the marginal remains 'king'.
belboid
Exasperated, not angry.
not from the info I've seen. Yes, it's more difficult in those places, but still plenty of room to make big gains. Winning 20% would get them about two thirds of the way there, from my very quick calculations
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
You mean making a gain of 20% from NV assuming that other parties were to make 0% gain from the same pool?
Re PMQs, no-one other than politics jocks gives a shit about the old format - by canvassing questions from the public, Corbyn will bring much more attention to it - they'll actually have some ownership of the questions. I presume he'll be emailing everyone who submitted a question back with the responses (and presumably some criticisms of the responses). It's a great way of engaging.
dolly's gal
killing things
I've been thinking this^^^^^ was a snide new internet name for Corbyn for about an hour.
and that "the people of Corby" was the related snide collective internet name for Corbyn supporters.
you're welcome
nino_savatte
No pasaran!
Who? The chinless cunt who asked a question about the Isle of Wight Zoo? Fucking surreal or what?Who's this twat?
belboid
Exasperated, not angry.
yup - or gain 20% more from that pool than the tories do (the others being irrelevant).
I would like to see how that pans out, adding in an assumption of 33.333% from the Greens and 15% from UKIP. I suspect they'd still need to get about a third as much again to win overall, but even my assumptions would be enough for a Lab/SNP
Just to flag up that I found a missing ) in a formula that Excel had "helpfully" inserted in the wrong place. I've adjusted the numbers in the original analysis accordingly. It makes the swings considerably more in Labour's favour.
It actually only takes a 25% engagement with non-voters (keeping everything else constant) to get to a Labour majority. And a 15% engagement would start to push Labour into largest party territory.
Apologies for the amateurish error.
It actually only takes a 25% engagement with non-voters (keeping everything else constant) to get to a Labour majority. And a 15% engagement would start to push Labour into largest party territory.
Apologies for the amateurish error.
nino_savatte
No pasaran!
Nigel Dodds... who seems to forget that his party leader was a member of a Loyalist paramilitary group. He's a fine one to mount his moral high horse.
Of course, there will never be as many birds in the Labour party as there are in the Tory party given that they are all blue tits.
Your wish is my command.
10% NV -> Labour plus 33% Green -> Labour and 15% UKIP -> Labour gives a swing of 38 from Tory to Labour (Tories left with 292 seats)
20% NV -> Labour plus 33% Green -> Labour and 15% UKIP -> Labour gives a swing of 67 from Tory to Labour (Tories left with 263 seats)
Any other what-ifs?
skyscraper101
0891 50 50 50
Didn't find PMQs very entertaining.
I want bear-pit style confrontation, and braying and mooing from our elected representatives, not elbow patch giving it all "I received an email from Gail..." this isn't points of view. Ham face walked it. The Blair v Major years were the best.
I want bear-pit style confrontation, and braying and mooing from our elected representatives, not elbow patch giving it all "I received an email from Gail..." this isn't points of view. Ham face walked it. The Blair v Major years were the best.
It depends what you're using it for. Politics-theatre fans are all partisan, everyone else is bored rigid with it. He's using it to engage voters rather than score points.
belboid
Exasperated, not angry.
many thanks!
DotCommunist
So many particulars. So many questions.
experienced fighters will often spend some time circling, feints, fakes and footwork. Testing the opponents game. Thats what this was. Next week c-byns going to open up with a blistering assualt of verbiage that would make 2pac blush
belboid
Exasperated, not angry.
stop that. Now. It's even worse than 'Jez'
Favelado
J'adore South Shore
Dear PMQ's, Why oh why oh why..........?
Favelado
J'adore South Shore
J-COR?
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