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Is the High Street doomed

Just had a quick Google and if the Asos bid wins, combined with Debenhams it could lead to as many as 24 thousand jobs gone almost overnight and in the middle of a pandemic. Those poor people!
The person I knew who had a job at Debenhams was barely making above what she'd get on benefits but it's not as simple as that I suppose. Did look like it was the same for a lot of them in store though because they had an own clothes but wear all black policy and everyone's clothes were worn, poorly fitting and made of cheap textiles. Can't help but think if the shop that sold expensive clothes either payed their staff more, or not expected the staff to buy their own work clothes on such a shit wage, it might still be open
 
Very large Debenhams in Guildford, right on the river, guess that will be executive flats in a couple of years. Never really did get on with them as stores though, always having to walk through the perfume department to get anywhere meant you started your shopping experience choking.

I actually threw up all over the pavement outside the Bristol one many years ago due to that smell. Already had a bit of a gippy tummy but that foul fog pushed it over the edge. Was Christmas Eve doing last minute shopping, everyone just assumed I was some Xmas lunchtime pisshead and ignored my distress.

Always try to hold my breath until I can get up a floor in places like that nowadays.
 
Going back to the original "is the high street doomed" question, around where I am, among what must now be square miles of empty retail space, independent and small chain stores are managing to get a real good foothold. They're never going to fill all the space left though which raises some difficult questions about what we're counting as "doomed". A high street where you can buy exactly what you want at the quality you need, but it's not taking up enough space to satisfy landlords? Less jobs than we had before but those jobs are more skilled and pay better? Is exploitation by a boss who lives 3 miles away really better than one who lives hundred or thousands of miles away?
 
Primark/Poundland/Wilko are pretty much the only shops that have plenty of customers (not including the supermarkets) in my town.

People are skint aren't they? That's where they shop.

I've been flogging things for my mother on ebay recently, bizarrely the things we've made most cash on is old Habitat catalogues (shes a hoarder). So when you look at the prices in there in the 80's, they're often more expensive - bedding was double the price, but it's all European made, much better quality, for example the sheets and duvet covers have a high thread count and are 100% cotton.

Now we're in a situation where we pay far too much on mortgage, bills, rent and travel and therefore all we can afford to buy with what's left is imported crap. It's so depressing. I myself see Debenhams the store as too expensive and didn't go in. When Debenhams - the ordinary department store - is too expensive for ordinary people, then I think we've got big problems.
 
Going back to the original "is the high street doomed" question, around where I am, among what must now be square miles of empty retail space, independent and small chain stores are managing to get a real good foothold. They're never going to fill all the space left though which raises some difficult questions about what we're counting as "doomed". A high street where you can buy exactly what you want at the quality you need, but it's not taking up enough space to satisfy landlords? Less jobs than we had before but those jobs are more skilled and pay better? Is exploitation by a boss who lives 3 miles away really better than one who lives hundred or thousands of miles away?


commercial landlords are feeling the pinch now, after a decade + of erosion of their income. massively leveraged debt is hanging over them and some are relying on their financiers to not call in the debt. i would expect / hope that the reams of dead space will become more affordable as the grim realisation of their predicament hits home- for a long while now, the idea of continual growth by consumers has kept them afloat- the economics of their model is rightly unsustainable. there is a finite amount of artisan bakers that are willing to risk everything to pump cash into the landlords pockets.for too long landlords have been able to gerrymander retail by resolutely leaving their portfolio dormant rather than reducing prices and rents
 
I myself see Debenhams the store as too expensive and didn't go in. When Debenhams - the ordinary department store - is too expensive for ordinary people, then I think we've got big problems.
One of the problems with Debenhams was not only that it was expensive, but the quality on 80-90% of the garments didn't match up with the price. So for people who could afford the price tag as long as the clothes last longer than the equivalent item in Dunnes, Debenhams was still a no go.
 
commercial landlords are feeling the pinch now, after a decade + of erosion of their income. massively leveraged debt is hanging over them and some are relying on their financiers to not call in the debt. i would expect / hope that the reams of dead space will become more affordable as the grim realisation of their predicament hits home- for a long while now, the idea of continual growth by consumers has kept them afloat- the economics of their model is rightly unsustainable. there is a finite amount of artisan bakers that are willing to risk everything to pump cash into the landlords pockets.for too long landlords have been able to gerrymander retail by resolutely leaving their portfolio dormant rather than reducing prices and rents
had a good laugh around here at one of the comercial landlords who basically back in April pulled some proper stunts and turned around and said "if you don't like it, leave" when they had everyone on insecure contracts, meaning everyone did just get up and leave. Glorious scenes. I just hope that as things collapse, we lose the naff souless spaces and not the original high streets and town centres. My concern is that the landlords who own the properties around high streets ime tend to be the most bullheaded and likely to dig their own graves in a situation like this. Which will be funny to watch in the short term but we will all suffer for it later down the line
 
One of my favourite record shops was the original Fopp on Byres Road (well, after it moved from nearby Cresswell Lane arcade). It was finally ousted from its site, reportedly due to disagreement over rent levels. Between the lines, the landlord wanted more and more thinking they would get it. It closed about this time last year and apart from briefly being used by a charity, remains empty. How much that’s Covid and how much just a continuation of a general move online is hard to tell.

I had a great affection for that branch in that location, and it’s a shame to see high streets losing landmarks. I do wonder what will happen in the future.

In my more optimistic moments I wonder if a new era of community control and the downfall of commercial rentiers is around the corner.

(My more pessimistic moments are more numerous and more dystopian).
 
Sadly, we're what looks a bit like a perfect storm in the UK retail market. Lots of retail properties with high rent, companies unable to do business in them, would-be customers losing their jobs and income left, right and centre, hundreds of said companies (both those operating in the buildings and those owning/managing them) leveraged up to the eyeballs from a decade of money-printing and "free" debt; Covid's a breezeblock to the nuts, then you've got Brexit as the liquid nitrogen.

Sadly there's billions of quid in investments (including, sadly, many of our pension funds) relying on all of the above "generating" income. A lot of the smaller commercial landlords might dig their own graves and end up bankrupt, but that would likely just mean cut-price assets for the private equity funds in the gory aftermath. Because of the number of investments on it, you'll likely end up in another "too big to fail" scenario.
 
I love the big old spaces above shops. For years the theory has been that usage of high streets will inevitably change, with a slide towards mixed use and more residential accommodation.

in light of that I just tried to buy a four bedroom flat above a pasty shop and next door to a pub.

no normal mortgage fuckers will touch it as it is in proximity to A3 commercial property takeaway/booze/nightlife

so cash purchase or an absurdly brutal % mortgage with a massive arrangement fee

is no one seeing the potential/change

i don’t think it’s risky at all. People gotta live somewhere

20 meters from the beach as well......

chiselling fuckers
 
One of my favourite record shops was the original Fopp on Byres Road (well, after it moved from nearby Cresswell Lane arcade). It was finally ousted from its site, reportedly due to disagreement over rent levels. Between the lines, the landlord wanted more and more thinking they would get it. It closed about this time last year and apart from briefly being used by a charity, remains empty. How much that’s Covid and how much just a continuation of a general move online is hard to tell.

I had a great affection for that branch in that location, and it’s a shame to see high streets losing landmarks. I do wonder what will happen in the future.

In my more optimistic moments I wonder if a new era of community control and the downfall of commercial rentiers is around the corner.

(My more pessimistic moments are more numerous and more dystopian).
I look at how people run their own independent businesses online and manage their own marketing via social media and it gives me hope. My neighbour makes and sells garden ornaments and sculptures and she's been flat out this whole pandemic.
I flippin hate it when chain stores trawl Etsy and copy these people, but I'm now seeing these chain stores go tits up.
 
including, sadly, many of our pension funds
Yeah, it’s a worry. At the moment we’re mostly living on my partner’s private pension from previous employment (long story about my UC and blah de blah but that the gist), and who know what it relies on for investment.

That’s the trouble. We’re all too entwined in capital to be able to rejoice at a slow demise.
 
we’re mostly living on my partner’s private pension... and who know what it relies on for investment.

Not just private ones either, plenty of state-backed pensions rely on the same things; remember the hoo-ha with the Icelandic banks in 2008 which held a lot of treasury and council funds (including pensions).

Best-case scenario at present would be for companies to realise that rental-backed securities are likely to be extremely fragile for the next five years and not try and kill the golden goose so that even in the event of the big chains losing space, there'll be indy retailers offered cheap and/or short-term rents in order to plug the gaps (especially since high streets exhibit strong network effects; closing of a couple of key shops can hugely affect footfall). Worst-case is a whole bunch of cascading failures as successive layers of investment and leverage are devalued; hopefully not as bad as the 2008 crash but that remains to be seen.

As can be seen on this RICS survey (PDF warning and dull financial data warning), expectations on retail rents are down 60-80% in 2020 and were already dropping a great deal before then. I'm not sure if the rents actually being demanded have dropped substantially yet.
 
As can be seen on this RICS survey (PDF warning and dull financial data warning), expectations on retail rents are down 60-80% in 2020 and were already dropping a great deal before then. I'm not sure if the rents actually being demanded have dropped substantially yet.
On the parade of approx. 20 shops (mainly food spots) where i work, 75% (not exaggerating) have closed permanently since last March...mainly cafs and lunch spots but not only. I personally know some of the people who have been forced out of business, in each case its because the landlord refused a rent holiday during Covid while they were forced to shut (and when were able to open had about 10% of usual business as its a ghost town round there).
So now these landlords have empty buildings, still no rent coming in, and when Covid does finally pass will have months with no-one to occupy, cost of refitting etc etc.
I cannot understand the landlords thinking, other than being so greedy that the concept of Rent Holiday cannot be agreed to as a point of self-harming principle.
I'm sure government could've done something here....people losing businesses they put so much time and money into, and now left with nothing, other than maybe debt.
 
I cannot understand the landlords thinking, other than being so greedy that the concept of Rent Holiday cannot be agreed to as a point of self-harming principle.
I'm sure government could've done something here....people losing businesses they put so much time and money into, and now left with nothing, other than maybe debt.

The only thing that makes sense to my eyes is that if they already own it, they might make better on sitting on their appreciating asset* in the hope of being able to claim "regular" market rents six months down the line, rather than letting it go cheap. Otherwise, as you say, an empty shop isn't enriching anyone (except maybe amazon and friends).

The government won't do anything until the last possible minute because a) that's Boris' MO and b) their biggest donors will be looking for a handout for lost earnings rather than being asked to stop flogging the dying horse.

* Even if it isn't any more
 
The only thing that makes sense to my eyes is that if they already own it, they might make better on sitting on their appreciating asset* in the hope of being able to claim "regular" market rents six months down the line, rather than letting it go cheap. Otherwise, as you say, an empty shop isn't enriching anyone (except maybe amazon and friends).

You have to factor in business rates as well - payable by the landlord after a property has been empty for three months. This is going to make some commercial property owners go under.
 
You have to factor in business rates as well - payable by the landlord after a property has been empty for three months. This is going to make some commercial property owners go under.
There are quite widespread business rate holidays from financial year April 2020-2021 going on at the moment, though god knows the small print and specifics. There are calls for it to be extended for the coming period. I would guess will be announced in March budget
Business rates holiday for retail, hospitality and leisure businesses
 
One of the problems with Debenhams was not only that it was expensive, but the quality on 80-90% of the garments didn't match up with the price. So for people who could afford the price tag as long as the clothes last longer than the equivalent item in Dunnes, Debenhams was still a no go.

You think so? I found it was quite cheap for branded men's stuff and I will miss our local branch, which was very close by. That leaves John Lewis downtown or Primark round the corner, it feels like there's a gap between the two which isn't being filled.
 
You think so? I found it was quite cheap for branded men's stuff and I will miss our local branch, which was very close by. That leaves John Lewis downtown or Primark round the corner, it feels like there's a gap between the two which isn't being filled.
I'm not very familiar with shopping for mens stuff but I know it's a lot different to womens. It's a lot easier to get higher quality men's clothes and better fits. Would you still consider the branded men's stuff you found in Debenhams cheap if it was poorly fitting, thin enough to get shredded after 5 washes and gave you eczema?

Yeah I know what you mean about that gap, there used to be a spectrum of high street shops like New Look, River Island, H&M but they've all got the same shit in them nowadays. Almost literally the same too, because not only are they cutting costs in exactly the same ways but they're all following the same fashion forcast with no experimental lines.
 
I'm not very familiar with shopping for mens stuff but I know it's a lot different to womens. It's a lot easier to get higher quality men's clothes and better fits. Would you still consider the branded men's stuff you found in Debenhams cheap if it was poorly fitting, thin enough to get shredded after 5 washes and gave you eczema?

Yeah I know what you mean about that gap, there used to be a spectrum of high street shops like New Look, River Island, H&M but they've all got the same shit in them nowadays. Almost literally the same too, because not only are they cutting costs in exactly the same ways but they're all following the same fashion forcast with no experimental lines.

Mrs Doodler misses Debenhams too, she always liked shopping there. Was it own brand clothes you were having problems with?

One of the things about the Debenhams menswear range was that there were own-brand ranges like Maine and Mantaray which seemed to be aimed at old Fred who still washes his car every Sunday. I found it reassuring to be reminded there was still at least one demographic age-band beyond my own.
 
I've always had a soft spot for Debenhams - partly based on childhood nostalgia for the local branch which was one of those sprawling department stores made up of several buildings knocked together, with floors on different levels and confusing staircases and passages taking you to unexpected departments. In recent years as a fashion-hating middle aged man who just wants some inoffensive clothes without any fuss I've always liked it too - plenty of choice between the various brands, reasonable quality compared to somewhere like H&M, and it's not trying hard to be some kind of funky fashion experience targeting twentysomethings - I just feel like a complete dick and unwelcome if I walk into one of those sorts of shops these days. Not sure where I will go in future, I can't buy all my clothes from the likes of Cotswold Outdoor.
 
Mrs Doodler misses Debenhams too, she always liked shopping there. Was it own brand clothes you were having problems with?

One of the things about the Debenhams menswear range was that there were own-brand ranges like Maine and Mantaray which seemed to be aimed at old Fred who still washes his car every Sunday. I found it reassuring to be reminded there was still at least one demographic age-band beyond my own.
Yes - sad though my sartorial choices are, I always drew the line at going as far back in the shop as the Maine concession. But those guys still need clothes!
 
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