Implications for the rest of us if Scotland votes yes

[weepiper]

Maybe not, but the first government in an independent Scotland will certainly be run by the SNP, so what they say they will do matters, especially as a lot of the things done in the first few years will be very hard to reverse. Will they deliver more social justice than they currently do or less, for instance? I don't think the answer is necessarily more, given some of their ideas about attracting foreign investment.

You're replying to an article telling us what Jim Sillars would like to see in an independent Scotland but then you're talking about the SNP.

 

[ddraig]

'Better to remain silent, and be thought a fool, than to speak and confirm it'.

Shush then!

 

[Diamond]

There's an academic blog post here which is the first serious attempt I've noticed to look at post-yes negotiations and ask what is in whose interests. Its conclusion is much the same as mine, that the new Scottish state has little to offer rUK and little bargaining power.

"an independent Scotland would remain heavily dependent on rUK in a large number of ways. These ways are important for iScotland, but not particularly for its much larger neighbour. To secure an advantageous ongoing arrangement, it has to be able to make convincing proposals to rUK that deliver things rUK wants or needs – and the list of those, once there has been a Yes vote, is small."

He only identifies two major things rUK will want from post-yes Scotland: continuity for Trident, and that iScotland does not become a failed state. Everything else, he reckons, is actually pretty marginal from our point of view, and I think I agree. Personally I'd like one outcome to be the complete destruction of Trident, and I certainly don't want iScotland to fail, but really, nothing that this thread has thrown up causes particular concern. tbh I don't really care if I have to show a passport at the border, or change currency, or if they don't get Dr Who and so on. The medium/longterm implications for 'the rest of us' are actually pretty minor, perhaps the most significant is the the clock change which will affect everyone, but that's a positive reason to wish them well and wave goodbye.

Mind, the post doesn't really consider energy, which rUK will need to import. iScotland can provide oil, gas and hydro electricity which rUK utilities can import if they choose, but while geographic distance means Scotland has few other markets to try to enter, there are plenty of other players eager to sell to the much bigger rUK customer, France, Norway, Russia, the US and so on and on are all likely to want to compete in the reorientated market. So there, too, negotiating power does not seem to lie with Scotland.

It also doesn't consider iScotland negotiations with the EU but as I've said above, I see them with virtually nothing to offer that anyone else wants to gain.

Very interesting reading.

 

[Diamond]

My law firm has just circulated a note to clients this afternoon, advising them of the risks that they see arising from the referendum result. I don't think it's confidential but I'm reluctant to post it up as they probably want to keep the advice under wraps for the meantime (it's also quite technical).

The note makes for pretty interesting reading, not least because most of the advice is almost identical to that provided to clients when there seemed to be a real prospect of Greece leaving the Eurozone around 2011/12. I remember doing work on that then preparing a couple of presentations on the matter - the issues are broadly similar, although there are peculiar complications to Scotland that makes the matter there even more complex - Trident, border controls, EU membership etc...

The bottom line though is that law firms and their clients (including HMG) are probably a lot more prepared than people expect for a "yes" result, given that they have been consistently running through various simulations involving Greece (or another peripheral EU member) exiting the eurozone since the start of the crisis there roughly four years ago.

Of particular interest I remember, were the forecasts involving Germany and other stronger partners exiting the eurozone first - they were pretty fanciful at the time but needed to be explored as they were not totally unrealistic. Those simulations would seem to broadly map on to post-independence negotiations between rUK and iScotland and would support the analysis linked to by newbie.

There will be a lot of these notes flying around, prepared by banks, law firms, consultancies and so on in the following few days. It'll be interesting to keep an eye out for them. Nomura's economics analysis seemed to be leaked pretty readily and always made for interesting reading so it'd be worth keeping an eye out for their briefings.

 

[8den]

I think the yes vote in the Scottish referendum is a lock. Paisley said that there'd be a independent Scotland over his dead body.

 

[danny la rouge]

Yet more unrealistic bollocks. The SNP proposes joining the EU

Jim doesn't, though. He opposes EU membership. (I reviewed his book, "In Place of Fear II", on the Big Thread).

The point Sillars makes, has always made, is that after independence, the Labour Party in Scotland has the opportunity to realign itself; to get closer to what Sillars thinks is its roots. (Because the Westminster pull is rightward, due to parties chasing swing votes in South Eastern marginals). He would then, he says, rejoin the Scottish Labour Party. He believes such a party would win a Scottish election. He makes no bones about the fact that he thinks the SNP is the vehicle for independence, but not the party he wants to see winning post independence, nor the party he thinks the electorate would gravitate towards.

He is not claiming that he thinks the SNP will do those things (or the other measures he outlines in his book).

You may disagree with him, but that's his analysis. (It's, incidentally, at the root of his 2 decade rift with Salmond, mended only as his wife was dying from Parkinsons).

 

[danny la rouge]

littlebabyjesus Here's my review of Sillars' book.

 

[danny la rouge]

You're replying to an article telling us what Jim Sillars would like to see in an independent Scotland but then you're talking about the SNP.

And this is a point worth re-emphasising. The Yes movement is far wider than just the SNP.

 

[J Ed]

Was reposting stuff oops

 

[Sasaferrato]

Jim Sillars isn't the SNP. The Yes campaign isn't the SNP.

Really? Was it the Seventh Day Adventists who were the authors of the referendum then? As to the campaign, Labour, Lib Dem and Conservative are on the 'No' side, who does that leave driving the 'Yes' campaign I wonder? Sillars, is an idiot, always was.

 

[Sasaferrato]

And this is a point worth re-emphasising. The Yes movement is far wider than just the SNP.

I take it that the 'Yes' people will find it unbearable to be in Scotland when they lose? Where could they go I wonder? The Utter Hebrides is fairly empty, perhaps they could go there?

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/scottish-independence/referendum-outcome

That poll which put 'Yes' narrowly close has galvanised the 'No' campaign, 'Yes' have hitherto been the more vociferous, that has changed.

 

[8den]

Yes they Galvanized Clegg, Cameron and Millband to campaign. Cameron and Clegg devastating popular north of border.

I know this sounds horribly cliched but yes it is the undecided that will carry this, and this is why I think it will go "No". If you're unsure about independence at this stage in the game, all the negative campaigning will probably ensure you'd err on the side of caution. If Scotland's demographic was younger I could see it going the other way, but all this "they'll destroy your pensions" crap will win it in the end. Depressingly.

 

[8den]

I take it that the 'Yes' people will find it unbearable to be in Scotland when they lose? Where could they go I wonder? The Utter Hebrides is fairly empty, perhaps they could go there?

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/scottish-independence/referendum-outcome

That poll which put 'Yes' narrowly close has galvanised the 'No' campaign, 'Yes' have hitherto been the more vociferous, that has changed.

I think in the last few days Cameron will drop enough sweeteners and powers for the devolved scottish parliament that they'll have their own army and navy.

 

[Obnoxiousness]

If David Cameron is against something, I am in favour of it.

It's that fuckin' simple.

 

[coley]

Yes they Galvanized Clegg, Cameron and Millband to campaign. Cameron and Clegg devastating popular north of border.

I know this sounds horribly cliched but yes it is the undecided that will carry this, and this is why I think it will go "No". If you're unsure about independence at this stage in the game, all the negative campaigning will probably ensure you'd err on the side of caution. If Scotland's demographic was younger I could see it going the other way, but all this "they'll destroy your pensions" crap will win it in the end. Depressingly.

That,and all those who are directly or indirectly employed by UK Ltd, don't even think it will be particularly close.

 

[Sasaferrato]

Yes they Galvanized Clegg, Cameron and Millband to campaign. Cameron and Clegg devastating popular north of border.

I know this sounds horribly cliched but yes it is the undecided that will carry this, and this is why I think it will go "No". If you're unsure about independence at this stage in the game, all the negative campaigning will probably ensure you'd err on the side of caution. If Scotland's demographic was younger I could see it going the other way, but all this "they'll destroy your pensions" crap will win it in the end. Depressingly.

https://www.facebook.com/BetterTogetherEdinburgh?fref=nf

Really?

Scroll down, third item down at the moment.

 

[8den]

If David Cameron is against something, I am in favour of it.

It's that fuckin' simple.

Cameron said it would "break his heart" if the yes vote won. So doubleplus good.

It would be his legacy forever remembered as the pm who broke up the union. Meanwhile if the union survives he'll just be that Etonian shit who broken the NHS, faith school bedroom taxing shithead who made the terminally ill work, and oversaw foodbanks becoming a word in the fucking dictionary.

 

[weepiper]

https://www.facebook.com/BetterTogetherEdinburgh?fref=nf

Really?

Scroll down, third item down at the moment.

No great surprises there. Boroughmuir is the nearest thing you can get to a private school without actually paying fees.

 

[8den]

https://www.facebook.com/BetterTogetherEdinburgh?fref=nf

Really?

Scroll down, third item down at the moment.

Yes I imagine a school with one of the boundaries of some of Edinburgh's most affluent areas would vote "No". That's not exactly a accurate description of the country as a whole.

Most polls are putting it neck and neck.

Please don't think you're indicative of Scotland you Scottish Tory Deviant Weirdo.

 

[Combustible]

If Scotland's demographic was younger I could see it going the other way, but all this "they'll destroy your pensions" crap will win it in the end. Depressingly.

It is interesting that in both the latest YouGov and ICM polls, No is leading among 16-24 year olds but Yes leads in the next age bracket up (25-34/39). There is a similar trend in a lot of YouGov Westminster polls, where the Tories tend to do better with 16-24s than 25-34. The trouble is these subgroups are not necessarily representative of the age groups as a whole and I imagine this is more of an issue with YG, where the panels are more self selecting.

 

[JTG]

Are these age splits available for other polls? Any deviation?

 

[8den]

It is interesting that in both the latest YouGov and ICM polls, No is leading among 16-24 year olds but Yes leads in the next age bracket up (25-34/39). There is a similar trend in a lot of YouGov Westminster polls, where the Tories tend to do better with 16-24s than 25-34. The trouble is these subgroups are not necessarily representative of the age groups as a whole and I imagine this is more of an issue with YG, where the panels are more self selecting.

They joke is YouGov is apparently that YouGuv stand's for "What would You like the poll to say Guv?"

 

[danny la rouge]

I take it that the 'Yes' people will find it unbearable to be in Scotland when they lose?

Why do you take that?

What you mean is: "here's something I've made up".

 

[goldenecitrone]

Does anybody in England, except politicians, actually give a fuck whether Scotland becomes independent or not? Apart from the media and here, I've not heard one person mention this dullest of referendums anywhere at all.

 

[JTG]

I have

 

[Combustible]

Are these age splits available for other polls? Any deviation?

I think all polling companies publish complete tables. I haven't looked at very many but the latest Survation poll has No leading for 16-24 year olds (with a small sample), while they are equal for 25-34 year olds. I don't think too much can be made of these numbers as pollsters are often keen to point out.

 

[coley]

Does anybody in England, except politicians, actually give a fuck whether Scotland becomes independent or not? Apart from the media and here, I've not heard one person mention this dullest of referendums anywhere at all.

Lot of interest in this neck of the woods,given the hope that if they are daft enough to vote yes,then some of the jobs lost there will be relocated here.
Plus can we have their Barnett dosh if they bugger off

 

[8den]

Does anybody in England, except politicians, actually give a fuck whether Scotland becomes independent or not? Apart from the media and here, I've not heard one person mention this dullest of referendums anywhere at all.

I think no one cared when they thought it wasn't going to happen. They're now bricking it.

 

[JTG]

Lot of interest in this neck of the woods,given the hope that if they are daft enough to vote yes,then some of the jobs lost there will be relocated here.
Plus can we have their Barnett dosh if they bugger off

And they can keep their net contribution to HM Treasury - an extra £0.7 billion

 

[Tankus]

how do they contribute to the EU ? if he insists that they are part of it ...what's the mechanism ? who does he pay , and with what , from where ?

....and we (UK) should get an immediate EU contribution rebate of at least 10% ....