How could coronavirus remake our economy and society?

[Brixton Hatter]

Despite the awful current and future situation caused by coronavirus, there are some potentially promising signs of things to come.

Lots of people, many who've never really been 'political' in any way, are questioning the current economic system. This is good.

Here's a random list of stuff I've noticed which is upsetting the current political/economic/social order in some way:

• Many people, especially those who are parents or have caring responsibilities, have been told repeatedly they can't work from home or work flexibly. Suddenly, lots of employers have realised this is possible, or even desirable.
• Lots of people who've never been anywhere near the social security system are starting to find out a) how benefits really are not enough to live on, and b) what a kafka-esque nightmare the admin of the system is. I'm interested to see how this changes the public perception of benefits and the pressure it might put on the Government.
• Countries like France and Denmark are guaranteeing to pay 75% of people's wages, which is sharply contrasting with the UK's £90-ish statutory sick pay. Suddenly those 'dirty European socialist' countries/policies look quite appealing.
• Some people are realising that constant international travel via aviation is not quite as important as they thought. There are some terrible impacts here (some of my friends have lost their jobs today and others are on reduced hours/pay) but it's good for the environment. People are driving less and cycling/walking more. What might the long term impact of this be?
• There's a growing realisation that the banks and people like Richard Branson, asking for bailouts despite being worth $billions, are massive cnuts.
• Many people are realising the housing rental industry is a massive scam - banks are offering mortgage holidays but where are the rent holidays? People are questioning the role of banks and landlords.
• Johnson and the tories have quickly been exposed as nasty, incompetent cnuts - for those that hadn't already realised this.
• Many people are taking things into their own hands (not waiting for Government advice) and getting on with helping their neighbours and friends, organising locally. There is a good sense of solidarity. I've never seen so many donations in the local foodbank.

There's probably many more too.

It's a serious time. And there's loads of other threads about the negative impacts. But what positives can we take? Are there opportunities to remake the economy and society, and rebalance power away from capital and towards people?

 

[redsquirrel]

Maybe this could be merged with ska invita thread in Theory? Covering similar stuff.

 

[a_chap]

In all honesty I cannot see anything good coming from this.

It's just varying degrees of awful

 

[RTWL]

I definitely can. Current events are exposing capitalist values for what they are. The UK government is blatantly putting economics before people and everybody is noticing this whilst at the same time communities are forming within the people to look out for the vulnerable that the system will be lunching out.

 

[maomao]

It's all very well realising the system is shit. Changing it is going to take battles and barricades. They'll have the army on the street inside two months.

 

[Proper Tidy]

I said something like this elsewhere on here, but I think this could act as a catalyst for peeling a few layers off, so some people coming to a critical political stance that might otherwise not. This is good in itself of course, particularly if we see people coalesce around something new, campaign groups that arise from the consequences eg better social safety net, more rights for tenants and borrowers, rather than heading into existing campaigns/labour where old bad habits are learnt. But I don't see anything more dramatic. This could change though depending on how long this goes on for, or could be like post crash where it took years for political repercussions to become clearer

Edit old bad habits like peeling layers

 

[existentialist]

It's all very well realising the system is shit. Changing it is going to take battles and barricades. They'll have the army on the street inside two months.

What there is of it. Likewise the police. I have often - fleetingly - wondered what the Tories would do if the manure really did end up in the aircon, and we might just be about to see.

And the Army have no reason to unduly love the political establishment themselves, so there might be a few problems in that quarter...

 

[existentialist]

But yes - I think that the faith in community that the efforts people are making is an important thing. It may fade somewhat, but bridges are being built now that will survive long after this crisis has passed. Apolitical local grass roots co-operation, which will then need to find its own political outlet over time, and as it coalesces across larger areas.

 

[planetgeli]

Been heartened today by the reaction of some in education, where I work. I don't believe the revolution is around the corner because I'm an old, cynical cunt. But.

Nobody I work with, through teachers, teaching assistants and school dinner staff, is impressed by what is going on. I've had more conversations today than in the last x years about the incompetence of government and the impression that we in education are expendable. Unions are being supportive, but beyond that, individuals are angry. Angry that we are guinea pigs and that the rich are looking after themselves.

Can this be turned into something? Dunno. But people are angry with the ruling class and their political class.

Tiocfadh ar la. Maybe.

 

[agricola]

Here, I really hope it stops politicians, civil servants and journalists mentioning making emergency services and especially the NHS "more efficient", "leaner" and all the other euphemisms for cuts again. It was always the case that they needed to have much more extra capacity than they in fact have.

I do think however that the main change worldwide will be that the US actually ends up with a healthcare system, not the mess they have now.

 

[weltweit]

..
I do think however that the main change worldwide will be that the US actually ends up with a healthcare system, not the mess they have now.

Well that would be something for sure. And there are other countries that could benefit from one also.

 

[Brixton Hatter]

I do think however that the main change worldwide will be that the US actually ends up with a healthcare system, not the mess they have now.

Yep, that's an interesting one. Lots of Americans quite rightly vexed about the lack of testing and poor response by Govt. I saw a US poll this morning suggesting support for healthcare system for all was at 58% (with 38% against). (But the Dems are desperately trying to get Sanders to drop out of the race, despite him being the one offering this, and not Biden.)

 

[Brixton Hatter]

In other news causing much hilarity, establishment journos like Robert Peston are suggesting the UK government needs to "borrow from Corbyn's playbook" and introduce socialist policies.

 

[Teaboy]

I am becoming increasingly alarmed at what the outcome of this will be beyond the health impact of the virus. Day by day I'm becoming more convinced that the response to the virus is going to kill way more than the virus itself. I don't think the governments could have done much else as they have to deal with the immediate danger and the numbers being modeled are scary. It remains though that poverty is a killer, a killer that is so effective it laughs in the face of this virus.

I believe at best we are going to see a lot of people lose their jobs and livelihoods as the global system goes into shutdown and at worse a massive global recession. Either way the result of the response to the virus will be a massive increase in poverty and a horrific death toll as a result. Proper grim reading of the situation but that's what it looks like to me.

 

[SpookyFrank]

I am becoming increasingly alarmed at what the outcome of this will be beyond the health impact of the virus. Day by day I'm becoming more convinced that the response to the virus is going to kill way more than the virus itself. I don't think the governments could have done much else as they have to deal with the immediate danger and the numbers being modeled are scary. It remains though that poverty is a killer, a killer that is so effective it laughs in the face of this virus.

I believe at best we are going to see a lot of people lose their jobs and livelihoods as the global system goes into shutdown and at worse a massive global recession. Either way the result of the response to the virus will be a massive increase in poverty and a horrific death toll as a result. Proper grim reading of the situation but that's what it looks like to me.

Whatever the predicted period of strain on the NHS, you can double that at least once you start thinking about the backlog of ordinary stuff that will need to be cleared once the coronavirus has finished fucking us all up. And of course anything that doesn't get treated for six months, a year is likely to be more serious and harder to treat, if it can be treated at all.

 

[Proper Tidy]

I believe at best we are going to see a lot of people lose their jobs and livelihoods as the global system goes into shutdown and at worse a massive global recession. Either way the result of the response to the virus will be a massive increase in poverty and a horrific death toll as a result. Proper grim reading of the situation but that's what it looks like to me.

Yeah I've been thinking about this, and the overall social consequences - health and financial anxiety, imposed social isolation with couples/families living on top of each other - would expect to see this reflected over time in suicide rates, separation & divorce, alcohol and substance stuff etc.

 

[sparkybird]

This isn't a big thing but I've noticed more people trying resuable/washable wipes instead of toilet paper, or just water and a towel (as much of the world does). And if they get on with it they might not go back..
...

 

[Smokeandsteam]

In other news causing much hilarity, establishment journos like Robert Peston are suggesting the UK government needs to "borrow from Corbyn's playbook" and introduce socialist policies.

Yes, and the fact that Peston and others think this is socialism reveals why those on the left think it is too need to give their heads a wobble.

QE, UBI, mortgage/rent/council tax/utilities bill holidays and any of the other possible measures are being introduced for one reason - to support capital and to buy it time.

That’s not to suggest that they aren't necessary - they are. But let’s not confuse what is happening and why

 

[Yuwipi Woman]

In other news causing much hilarity, establishment journos like Robert Peston are suggesting the UK government needs to "borrow from Corbyn's playbook" and introduce socialist policies.

I actually saw Mitch McConnell say something similar. Its all to benefit business and/or keep riots from happening, and not to benefit the average person, but it shows that they are fully aware that their policies don't work for average people.

 

[Smokeandsteam]

I actually saw Mitch McConnell say something similar. Its all to benefit business and/or keep riots from happening, and not to benefit the average person, but it shows that they are fully aware that their policies don't work for average people.

Yes. But whether it’s 2008, this or other shocks like climate change the key underlying message is even worse for them: capitalism isn’t working, it can’t withstand shocks and is increasingly prone and powerless when they emerge and growing numbers of people have worked this out.

50 years ago you needed Ralph Miliband to remind you that capitalism still existed. Now you struggle to find anyone who doesn’t believe it’s failing them personally

 

[Yuwipi Woman]

One of the things that I'm seeing in the US is that families are reconnecting and spending time together. Most people work so many hours that they meet their children passing in the hallway or kitchen on the way to somewhere else. I'm wondering if going back to that will be accepted "when things go back to normal."

 

[Teaboy]

This isn't a big thing but I've noticed more people trying resuable/washable wipes instead of toilet paper, or just water and a towel (as much of the world does). And if they get on with it they might not go back..
...

Umm. How have you noticed this?

 

[CNT36]

Umm. How have you noticed this?

It's part of the pitch of their salesperson/head honcho who is pushing them on telly and radio.

 

[RTWL]

This is a good piece on the situation -

“Only a crisis — actual or perceived — produces real change. When that crisis occurs, the actions that are taken depend on the ideas that are lying around.”

NAOMI KLEIN: “Ideas that are lying around.” Friedman, one of history’s most extreme free market economists, was wrong about a whole lot, but he was right about that. In times of crisis, seemingly impossible ideas suddenly become possible. But whose ideas? Sensible, fair ones, designed to keep as many people as possible safe, secure and healthy? Or predatory ideas, designed to further enrich the already unimaginably wealthy while leaving the most vulnerable further exposed?

 

[sparkybird]

Umm. How have you noticed this?

Oh yea I should have qualified by saying I'm a member of a few zero waste Facebook groups and am planning to do the same when I get back to the UK and have no loo roll

 

[Kaka Tim]

I very much think this is a gamechanger on a par with WW2. With the global economy being frozen for months i imagine we are heading for the biggest depression ever (saw one forecast of 30% unemployment in the USA) on a global scale. Governments will have to intervene to prevent a complete collapse of the entire economic system - as we see defaults on loans and mortgages on a scale the dwarf the 2008 crash, currency collapses, business folding like dominoes in every sector and mass unemployment. Its going to pretty fucking ugly and chaotic so hold onto your hats.
But we may end up with state controlled economies and a return to mass universal welfare combined with people being employed en masse to repair the damage. We'll be poorer but we may be able to afford the rent.

 

[Proper Tidy]

Just reading that GDP has effectively stopped across most developed economies as nobody can get out to spend combined with supply side shock as goods not being manufactured and exported, so usual govt intervention of cutting rates to boost spending won't be effective as people can't spend = nailed on recession. Makes sense.

Anyway, given climate (pressure on resources like health and social care will become a fucking huge political issue) and ongoing effects of austerity, as far as I can see then govt & capital's options are restricted to fulsome support for stimulus, pumping money in. That will mean QE obviously but there is also talk from Serious People about the need for helicopter money, money put directly into hands of people ('consumers') to stop blocks in pipeline like post crash when QE to banks to recapitalise didn't result in easy credit. That could be govt loans/credit supply over and above measures Sunak already announced, it could be one off grants, it could be UBI. More govt & central bank intervention, more state ownership, bigger public sector etc.

Now obviously all these measures are fundamentally about the preservation of capitalism as Smokeandsteam has talked about recently but starting to think we will see quite a radical transformation in how capital operates, not just in short term but an overhaul.

 

[RTWL]

More inspiration from across the big pond:

From Washington state to the Bay Area, Arizona, Colorado, Minnesota and New York City, thousands of mutual aid efforts are aimed at building solidarity, not charity.

 

[Proper Tidy]

The daily ramp up of state intervention is quite something isn't it

 

[Smokeandsteam]

What has just been announced is way way beyond the level of state intervention being argued for by Corbyn.

But let’s remember 1. This is to help capitalism and isn’t the ushering in of socialism and 2. The Tories can do it only because they are the party of capital.

Still making my head spin though. Fucking hell