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House price crash

Winter sales below asking price isn't really a bombshell.

Ordinary 3 bed terraces in Exeter currently vary from about £220k-400kish depending on location. 8 years ago the spread would have been £160k-300kish. I can't see prices dropping back to that level. I think it's more likely that the swish ones in popular areas will see similar sale prices as last year, and crappy ones in less popular areas will see a slight decline.
I'd be very surprised if they stay the same in 2024 as in 2022, especially the swish ones, but yeah, lets see. Predicting the future is one of my less successful hobbies to be fair but with this i think you can see the fault lines really clear.
 
Winter sales below asking price isn't really a bombshell.

Ordinary 3 bed terraces in Exeter currently vary from about £220k-400kish depending on location. 8 years ago the spread would have been £160k-300kish. I can't see prices dropping back to that level. I think it's more likely that the swish ones in popular areas will see similar sale prices as last year, and crappy ones in less popular areas will see a slight decline.
All those new builds on the fringes of the city are going to have a colossal drop in value if this is sustained, they’re usually overpriced and drop in value, and a 5 year old new build is no longer new so is perhaps caught a bit between two stools?
 
All those new builds on the fringes of the city are going to have a colossal drop in value if this is sustained, they’re usually overpriced and drop in value, and a 5 year old new build is no longer new so is perhaps caught a bit between two stools?
Yeah, that podcast i linked to earlier had a bit about new builds in, and its something i never thought about before:
was saying that (especially now, with building costs up massively as they've been with covid etc) every new build purchaser, who is usually a 1st time buyer, is basically in negative equity from day one. Cos the house builders are there to make money obvs after materials & labour.

They were saying that already the house builders are offering stuff like 'free carpets' and 'free kitchen upgrades' to avoid dropping their prices and that this is.. not a sign of a buoyant house market.
 
Yeah, that podcast i linked to earlier had a bit about new builds in, and its something i never thought about before:
was saying that (especially now, with building costs up massively as they've been with covid etc) every new build purchaser, who is usually a 1st time buyer, is basically in negative equity from day one. Cos the house builders are there to make money obvs after materials & labour.

They were saying that already the house builders are offering stuff like 'free carpets' and 'free kitchen upgrades' to avoid dropping their prices and that this is.. not a sign of a buoyant house market.
a friend in building trade was saying that theres not big profits of the constructions (not sure how true that is) - i presume if it was council housing then the council would get rent for ever and it wouldnt matter about finding whatever immediate profit you can from putting these buildings up
 
what are these legal changes? i hadnt heard about this
Two main things, one is an end to 'no fault evictions' (i don't know any detail on this) and the other is that very soon (2025) it will be illegal to rent out a property unless it has an EPC (energy performance certificate) rating of C or above, which the majority of uk privately rented properties do not currently have (and it costs loads of money to insulate double glaze etc which is what will be required to try to get there).
eg)Two-thirds of landlords will sell up to avoid the burden of improving EPCs
 
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a friend in building trade was saying that theres not big profits of the constructions (not sure how true that is) - i presume if it was council housing then the council would get rent for ever and it wouldnt matter about finding whatever immediate profit you can from putting these buildings up
this was the original intention of council housing but that law where people cam buy their council homes skewered it
 
Its surprising to me that this is coming from the current government but it is: This year, they are planning to end the ability of landlords to evict tenants unless the tenants have done something majorly wrong.


That plus the EPC thing means a significantly changed landscape i reckon, with massively higher rents & lower house prices. Unintended consequences. But landlords selling up is just one piece of the story of why house prices is going way down very soon, imo.
 
One thing that's been on my mind more recently (as a naive bumbling mid 20s woman whose only ever rented) is that house prices going down isn't going to equate with mortgages for new buyers going down, is it? Because of inflation and stuff like that
 
One thing that's been on my mind more recently (as a naive bumbling mid 20s woman whose only ever rented) is that house prices going down isn't going to equate with mortgages for new buyers going down, is it? Because of inflation and stuff like that
mortages going up will help a lot to make house prices go down; if people can't afford the mortgage the asking price has to be cheaper, plus a load of recent buyers in negative equity forced to sell, flooding the market reducing prices further. says my crystal ball.
 
mortages going up will help a lot to make house prices go down; if people can't afford the mortgage the asking price has to be cheaper.
But no one really benefits in the end from that do they? The same amount of money is required on the buyer's end (unless they're paying in cash)
 
so house prices are about to go through the floor while rents are going to skyrocket all because landlords can't afford double-glazing?
It’s happening already, have a google. Rents are massively up and house prices are like that Coyote hovering in the air above the cliff.
 
Ironically
so house prices are about to go through the floor while rents are going to skyrocket all because landlords can't afford double-glazing?
It's worth thinking about the maths

Assuming rent £1k p/m on a 2 or 3 bed house
Double glazing eats into most of a year's rent
Then on top of that, insurance, letting agents fees, yearly gas safety checks, etc
Void periods when the house is empty
Other work that needs doing - eg mold is a big problem in rented houses, electrical safety another thing that's about to get tightened up
Longer term big projects, like roofing etc which need saving up for
even assuming a landlord hasn't got a mortgage on the house they're renting out, they probably won't be making a profit the next few years
 
Landlord warning

I’m working on the principle that in the future access to owning property is going to be absolutely off the table for most normal people, the inter generational housing wealth will be scoffed up by the next generations needs (university debt, medical bills, nursing homes bank of mum and dad mortgage deposits)

My smart as fuck nieces and nephews have not gone to university as they couldn’t justify the debt and started out working. Hopefully some time in the future they’ll have the opportunity to go to university (probably when I die and they inherit)

BTLers who were big timing it just subletting on super cheap interest only mortgages will be rushing to get their equity out (25%) as the mortgage hikes will be losing them money and rents can’t meet their interest payments never mind chisel profit out of tenants

I’m planning on holding on tight to my property. Once it’s gone I’ll never be able to access it again. I’ve never maxed out any equity and always paid off mortgages so if the market crashes terribly I’m only losing notional value and I’ll never go into negative equity

But my mortgage on my own flat has doubled in 6 months and is still travelling up (it was a non mortgageable property to do up so I had to arrange a heinous commercial mortgage)

I can’t see much hope for the future generations. Everyone is fucked
 
idk i just cant get away from the feeling that cheaper houses and higher rents sound like the perfect conditions for landlords.
Depends on the landlord. I agree with you to an extent and I think the reason the Conservatives are doing this is ideological to protect the interests of what they'd deem to be a true landlord class, ie people who own outright and will have the cash to throw around at the moment
 
Depends on the landlord. I agree with you to an extent and I think the reason the Conservatives are doing this is ideological to protect the interests of what they'd deem to be a true landlord class, ie people who own outright and will have the cash to throw around at the moment
I think its become obvious to them that their core demographic is too old & too small now to keep them in power, and thats why these changes are happening under their watch. The abolition of no fault evictions (section 21 notices) was in their 2019 manifesto (!)
 
Yeah, that podcast i linked to earlier had a bit about new builds in, and its something i never thought about before:
was saying that (especially now, with building costs up massively as they've been with covid etc) every new build purchaser, who is usually a 1st time buyer, is basically in negative equity from day one. Cos the house builders are there to make money obvs after materials & labour.

They were saying that already the house builders are offering stuff like 'free carpets' and 'free kitchen upgrades' to avoid dropping their prices and that this is.. not a sign of a buoyant house market.
Most big house builders will just stop developing their sites rather than cut asking price. We've been to see a few new builds in the south west recently and they are all offering deals of one sort or another (mortgage payments, stamp duty, landscaping, kitchens, flooring etc etc).
 
Most big house builders will just stop developing their sites rather than cut asking price. We've been to see a few new builds in the south west recently and they are all offering deals of one sort or another (mortgage payments, stamp duty, landscaping, kitchens, flooring etc etc).
that does prove the point doesn’t it, the podcast dudes were saying that when they start offering free cars as an inducement that might be the right time to buy (but with a cash discount, not accepting the freebies).
 
I doubt a huge amount will change frankly.

I cant see prices (or rents) falling here a good 30-40% as happened with the Eurozone crisis.

It's good the BTLers are being forced out. If their properties are then empty we need to occupy them.
 
I doubt a huge amount will change frankly.
Can you explain why not?
I think the evidence is all there that things really are changing at the moment, it’s just been the same ‘safe as houses’ story for so long that it’s hard to get your head around.

 
Theres plenty of people who are well off enough they can buy whatever property is available. Plenty of couples with 50k in the bank who can stilk afford the mortgage. Plenty of people looking to sell and up downsize. Things would have to get significantly worse economically and in terms of inequality in the next 2 years anything drastic to change. Lending isnt as willy nilly as 2008 so mass foreclosures like in Spain or Florida or whatevs seems unlikely. More likely the wealthy will consolidate their assets in property and or help their kids do so.

If you already own property its a lot easier and the vast majority of people with money already own property. And the wealthier ones at least have got richer over the past 10 years. And if youre a tradesman etc not in debt and your partner is working too you're still going to be able to buy a house pretty easy anywhere but London.

A lot of (normal) people are sitting on a nest of savings still from covid. Restaurants still full at the weekend in Bath and Bristol. People still going on holiday. And in the end these are the people that buy properties, not the people without £500 in the bank in savings.

There is such a shortage of property and such high demand for anything decent that even with the current situation I cant see the market dropping dramatically. And obviously theres a shortage of affordable housing and so on so resisting rent rises and so forth is a bit harder in some ways now. But still a major area where there could and should be more organising. Why the fuck should anyone pay a 30% increase? Why should they move out if they cant afford to? People need support to say a loud and clear GTF!

If I was to advise anyone who wants to buy it would be to save as hard as you fucking can for the next year or so and then try to buy in the (slightly) falling market. You dont need the prices to actually fall just the fear of it to keep putting low ball offers in until one is affected (this is what I did a few years back offering like 7%below asking price).
 
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Theres plenty of people who are well off enough they can buy whatever property is available. Plenty of couples with 50k in the bank who can stilk afford the mortgage. Plenty of people looking to sell and up downsize. Things would have to get significantly worse economically and in terms of inequality in the next 2 years anything drastic to change. Lending isnt as willy nilly as 2008 so mass foreclosures like in Spain or Florida or whatevs seems unlikely. More likely the wealthy will consolidate their assets in property and or help their kids do so.

If you already own property its a lot easier and the vast majority of people with money already own property. And the wealthier ones at least have got richer over the past 10 years. And if youre a tradesman etc not in debt and your partner is working too you're still going to be able to buy a house pretty easy anywhere but London.

A lot of (normal) people are sitting on a nest of savings still from covid. Restaurants still full at the weekend in Bath and Bristol. People still going on holiday. And in the end these are the people that buy properties, not the people without £500 in the bank in savings.

There is such a shortage of property and such high demand for anything decent that even with the current situation I cant see the market dropping dramatically. And obviously theres a shortage of affordable housing and so on so resisting rent rises and so forth is a bit harder in some ways now. But still a major area where there could and should be more organising. Why the fuck should anyone pay a 30% increase? Why should they move out if they cant afford to? People need support to say a loud and clear GTF!

If I was to advise anyone who wants to buy it would be to save as hard as you fucking can for the next year or so and then try to buy in the (slightly) falling market. You dont need the prices to actually fall just the fear of it to keep putting low ball offers in until one is affected (this is what I did a few years back offering like 7%below asking price).
Yeah but all those people with the money / property, they will not buy a house which they think will be worth less tomorrow than they’re paying for it today, they’ll wait and then offer low offers wont they, it changes everything once people reassess from the assumption that house prices are only going to go up & instead have to act within what they think is a falling market.
 
Yeah but all those people with the money / property, they will not buy a house which they think will be worth less tomorrow than they’re paying for it today, they’ll wait and offer low offers wont they, it changes everything once people think that we are in a falling market.

Yeah but houses are not really worth less or more. Most people dont fully own their houses. Its more a reflection of the amount you can borrow isnt it. And obviously borrowing is not going to shut down overnight or even hugely IMO, even with the current situation. Like I said there's still a good 20-30% of the population who can borrow no problem, and theres a limited stock of housing which exacerbates the pressure.

You cant "lose money" on a house can you. People say this but people are wrong. If your house is worth 20% less so is everything else usually. You can only lose if you are actually investing or whatever. Plus you are not paying rent and as expensive as mortgages get guaranteed thatll be a better deal than renting in the urban hotspots 99% of the time.
 
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