existentialist
Tired and unemotional
Well, I guess they can race each other to the bottom, or just watch each other carefully while they try to dispose of as much as they can without ruffling the waters too badly.
House price crash
- Thread starter ska invita
- Start date
They can only do it in retrospect once the registry has been completed. I believe that Halifax and Nationwide both do trackers that they keep as up to date as they can
Spymaster
Plastic Paddy
The best way to keep track of what's going on is to register with Zoopla, save a few searches of property types in areas that you'll be interested in and opt for the option to be sent email updates. You'll get alerts every time properties within your parameters are reduced in price as well as when new ones come on. Over time you'll build up a picture of what's going on where it's relevant to you. Being told by building societies and estate agents that prices have dropped 12% in Humberside, or 15% nationally, is pretty useless information if you're looking to buy in Brighton.
Fuzzy
Hearts Cov
I'm in.
bimble
floofy
oh good, thought i was going to do a big bump but here you all are already.
I reckon with my crystal ball - that there'll be about a 30-40% drop in house prices by sometime next year, I think its happening now, but doesn't show up fully yet because understandably will take a while to filter through especially into the brains of sellers, that their house is 'worth' much less than they bought it for, that's what the delay is.
So (imo) a truly massive 'crash' incoming, far more than just a correction to the last couple of years of madness.
If that does come to pass what will the effects of it be for the, you know, country in general that's what I cant figure out.
I reckon with my crystal ball - that there'll be about a 30-40% drop in house prices by sometime next year, I think its happening now, but doesn't show up fully yet because understandably will take a while to filter through especially into the brains of sellers, that their house is 'worth' much less than they bought it for, that's what the delay is.
So (imo) a truly massive 'crash' incoming, far more than just a correction to the last couple of years of madness.
If that does come to pass what will the effects of it be for the, you know, country in general that's what I cant figure out.
I think it’ll be really regional. Places that saw second homers dive in and pay massive prices on the grounds that credit was basically free will see those same people desperate to sell. Places that continue to be undersupplied may get off without so much of an effect.
Who knows, though? Good crystal ball gazing, that’s what I say!
bimble
floofy
First to crash will be the places where londoners rushed out to in the pandemic, but i don't see anywhere escaping the giant crash really: Loads of factors going on at the same time, including landlords selling up en mass as new legislation comes in, those plus loads of recent purchasers finding themselves in negative equity, and the people who wont be able to manage when it becomes time to remortgage.
Anyway, I am convinced.
So's the guy on this podcast: UK House Prices: Collapse of Property Market Could be Coming - Bloomb…
But what would it actually look like is the thing; it will be good news for some people and devastating for others.
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Idaho
blah blah blah
This is why I'm not convinced of a big crash. There are people wanting to buy.
smmudge
i know the smudge is true
Maybe. I feel probably more like prices will stagnate for a while which is a real terms price decrease but might not be that noticeable as a huge crash.
On the one hand people who already stretched themselves when rates were low will soon be overstretched and desperate to downsize or worst case repossessed. More renting laws on the horizon so more landlords will probably be looking to sell too. Leading to oversupply.
Then on the other hand for every house that comes in to an affordability range, people are waiting to buy. It's just whether they've got the deposit available having paid through the nose on rent the past few years.
On the one hand people who already stretched themselves when rates were low will soon be overstretched and desperate to downsize or worst case repossessed. More renting laws on the horizon so more landlords will probably be looking to sell too. Leading to oversupply.
Then on the other hand for every house that comes in to an affordability range, people are waiting to buy. It's just whether they've got the deposit available having paid through the nose on rent the past few years.
SpookyFrank
A cheap source of teeth for aquarium gravel
bimble
floofy
Yes, wanting to buy but not at the prices that sellers are asking. There's a standoff at the moment, and sellers will have to gradually adjust to the reality of what buyers will pay (which isnt more than what they themselves may have paid a couple of years ago, type thing).
68 % of sales in the last 3 months sold for under the asking price, that will keep growing, and asking prices will fall and become more realistic
Elpenor
Dancing as fast as I can
is there any chance of distressed sales being largely hoovered up by non owner-occupiers / private landlords for example real estate investment vehicles (which typically target commercial not resi property)?
It feels like an asset class that doesn’t really exist but I’m sure it’s a thing in other countries
It feels like an asset class that doesn’t really exist but I’m sure it’s a thing in other countries
bimble
floofy
That RICs report included a bit from one surveyor in London about how 75% of surveys they'd done lately were for landlords who are selling up. Its definitely happening. meaning rents will climb ever higher whilst house prices fall.
Artaxerxes
Look out, he's got a gnu!
Watch the private equity firms take up the slack on housing. Same as the US
muscovyduck
Good IT skills and food hygiene competent
BTLers want to sell so it'll be that type of property that sees the crash - every nook and cranny is a bedroom, housing benefit near market rate places
Artaxerxes
Look out, he's got a gnu!
The demand is so high at this point that any crash is likely to be tiny compared to the numbers that will still need housing.
bimble
floofy
idk. The legal changes coming in that are causing landlords to sell up in large numbers, those are going to apply to big corporations as well.
Elpenor
Dancing as fast as I can
Seen a few of them before - at least 6 bedrooms all with en-suite shower rooms, one small kitchen. No communal storage or living space
Artaxerxes
Look out, he's got a gnu!
The corps will knock ‘em down and keep the land and rebuild. Or be able to take the hit.
Most rentals are owned by only a fraction of landlords. Its the people who own one or two properties, usually due to inheritance or moving for work, that are going to be selling up not the big ones.
muscovyduck
Good IT skills and food hygiene competent
Anyone know more about why we don't already have the same sort of private equity firm owning houses thing like in the US or Ireland? I'm sure they do here but it doesn't feel like its anywhere near the same scale
bimble
floofy
these are from the most recent report - new buyer enquiries all very much down..
that bit in 2020 is the lockdown obvs, then you have to look back to 2008 to see the same dip.
bimble
floofy
Anyway, i reckon when the music stops, it will be (probably) a net good, in that there'll be not a great deal more homeless people and fewer people who own more than 1 chair.
I do reckon that if you're looking to buy you should wait just a bit until later in the year, when sellers will have had a chance to accept the reality of what's happening.*
*this is not financial advice etc
I do reckon that if you're looking to buy you should wait just a bit until later in the year, when sellers will have had a chance to accept the reality of what's happening.*
*this is not financial advice etc
Idaho
blah blah blah
Winter sales below asking price isn't really a bombshell.
Ordinary 3 bed terraces in Exeter currently vary from about £220k-400kish depending on location. 8 years ago the spread would have been £160k-300kish. I can't see prices dropping back to that level. I think it's more likely that the swish ones in popular areas will see similar sale prices as last year, and crappy ones in less popular areas will see a slight decline.
Artaxerxes
Look out, he's got a gnu!
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