Horse racing tips an all good horse things...

[ouirdeaux]

Another day of impossible handicaps. In the 16.45 at Ascot, where Sky is paying out on four places each way in a 10-runner race, I wonder if Rishes Baar is overpriced at 50/1. She's been running in better races.

Does anyone know why some areas of London seem to have lost pretty much all their betting shops, while others haven't? Obviously they're less profitable now with the cap on FOBTs, but I was struck by the fact that they seem to have mostly gone from SE London, but thrive in Barking, where a superficial survey (I went into a couple at wide intervals) would seem to indicate roughly the same numbers and demographic.

 

[ouirdeaux]

I was wrong about the 16.45. I was wrong about the other races too, and the only consolation is that most of the tipsters have done as badly as I have.

Fuck knows why I let myself be tempted by extra places in big flat handicaps when there's jump racing on tomorrow.

 

[bendeus]

you all fancy horses lol

It's a step above pigeons

 

[ouirdeaux]

William Hill, whom I hate and will only use if no other bookie is matching their price, offered me a free bet of up to £10 if I put a bet on. They were the only one offering 16/1 about Forest Falcon in the opener at the Goodwood Festival. So I was about to put a teeny £2.50 e/w bet on, and then thought fuck it, might as well get the full matched bet, the additional £5 isn't going to break me, so I put £5 e/w on. Even though I know my strike rate isn't great in flat handicaps, and particularly bad at Goodwood, which has never been glorious for me. To make it even more unlikely, the trainer has two horses in the race, and it's the other one that's being backed. I was going to have a small saver on that one, but it was carrying top weight, and Johnston often uses Dettori, occasionally successfully, in these big handicaps.

As happened this time, as it powered away to win in style. I'm now looking at a healthy balance, and even have a free bet. At William Hill's expense, which makes it even better.

 

[ouirdeaux]

The free bet was restricted to Goodwood, alas, and I'm not tempted by much there despite this anomalous success. But I got 9/1 e/w on a horse backed down to 11/2, and it placed. One further bet where WH were offering the best price on a Gin And Lime in the Galway Pate, and win or lose, I'll withdraw the rest and hopefully finish with them for a while.

In other cheerful news, I recently joined Ladbrokes, where a £5 initial bet got four £5 free bets. My initial bet and one of the free bets placed, yielding a modest profit, and then the last free bet (at Worcester) came in at 20/1, making it all worthwhile.

 

[ouirdeaux]

There's a fine line between getting it right and getting it wrong. Yesterday I backed three horses in an e/w patent very early in the morning, total stake £14: Majil @ 20/1,16.40 Carlisle; Sixcor @ 11/1, 17.15 Carlisle; Burtonwood @ 22/1,17.50 Carlisle.

But a few hours later I was hit with a Rule 4 in the last race, the only one I was really keen on. To make it worse, its price hadn't changed much after whatever horse it was had been withdrawn, as often happens, but they still deduct whatever percentage it is. So I was grateful (and slightly puzzled) when at some point Sky offered me a cashout value of £14.27, which I took advantage of.

Of the three horses I'd originally picked, the first lost, and the second was a non-runner. The third I backed each way on its own at @ 18/1, along with Epeius @ 9/1 in the 14.25 at Chepstow and Dream Deal @ 12/1 in the 17.15 at Carlisle. All three horses placed.

So far so good, right? I'd made all the correct decisions. But I'd backed them all on their own. Yes, it's a profit, but a very minimal one. If I'd combined those three horses in an e/w patent, it would have been £90-odd.

 

[spitfire]

I've got a free £20 bet from Coral that has to be used on horse racing. (I put a bet on the Mercury Prize, lost...).

Any tips for the next best thing to a banker at the weekend? Happy to split winnings or donate half to the server fund.

 

[ouirdeaux]

Are there any restrictions on the bet, apart from having to be used on horse racing?

If you take a race with not many runners, and you do a combination forecast with all of them, you are guaranteed a return. A combination forecast is a bet on any number of horses to come first and second, in either order.

For example, there is a 5-runner race today at 3.05 at Tramore. There are 20 possibilities for them to fill the first and second place (5x4). If there were six runners, there would be 30 possibilities (6x5). If there were four runners, there would be 12 possibilities (4x3).

But let's consider the race at Tramore. To combine all the horses, go to the race, click on Forecast, then click ANY for all horses. Then enter your stake as £1, which will be a total of £20 for 20 bets. You are now guaranteed a return, because you have covered all possibilities.

It probably won't be a very large return, which is why it would be pointless to bet this way with your own money. If the favourite beats the second favourite, you will win around £6, so you would be down £14. But if the three longer-priced horses fill the first and second places, you'll get £30-40.

Something tells me you won't be allowed to do this.

 

[spitfire]

Ts and Cs

I have 2 x £20 "free bets"apparently.

WHAT IS A FREE BET?

Free bets are a type of offer that you can use when placing a bet without having to use cash. However this can also be topped up with any other stake.

HOW TO USE IT?

Simply make a selection as usual on the event that you wish to bet on. If your free bet is eligible for that bet, it will be displayed on your betslip (or quick bet).

WHEN TO USE IT?

A free bet can be used for a limited time period and sometimes gets restricted to individual sports or events. Check out the details of your free bet above for more information. It is also important to remember that winnings from a free bet will not include the stake; this means that free bets will have a reduced cash out value.

I did it! (I think). estimated returns says N/A

See what happens! Thanks @oirdeaux

 

[spitfire]

Might stick the other 20 on an E/W, which horse would you choose?

I'm thinking Fools Glory

 

[ouirdeaux]

Good Lord, I didn't expect you to do it, because even if it's a guaranteed return, it's not very exciting. I was just looking for a race with 20 possible outcomes, for simplicity. It's not really a betting race for me, except from a mathematical point of view. The best hope is that in a small-field fillies' handicap in Ireland, with every trainer trying to fiddle the system by putting up a jockey with a claim (able to deduct a certain amount of weight for being an apprentice with fewer than a certain number of wins), is that it won't be as straightforward as the favourite beating the second favourite. But which unexpected result might happen is beyond my conjecture.

If they let you get away with this sort of thing, and you don't mind potentially small returns, you could do the same thing in another small-field race.

 

[spitfire]

I've put the other 20 on the favourite. Fuck it.

 

[spitfire]

Royal Eagle just pipped in the last furlong but the combination forecast netted me £7.99 so not all bad and at least I took some money off them.

Now only £2.01 down overall and I have another free £2 bet so may yet break even or even come out ahead.

Thanks again!

 

[ouirdeaux]

It was the worst possible result for you, really -- the lowest forecast where you wouldn't have the win -- and I felt guilty. Still do.

 

[spitfire]

It was the worst possible result for you, really -- the lowest forecast where you wouldn't have the win -- and I felt guilty. Still do.

Don't, I wanted to get it done and dusted before I forgot.

 

[ouirdeaux]

When you said you'd put the other £20 on the favourite, it did occur to me you could have used it for a £10 reverse forecast on the favourite and second favourite, just to ensure against the outcome that actually did happen.

 

[Elpenor]

I’m going to the races on Saturday, I’ve never actually been to a race meeting before but given I live less than a mile from one I thought I’d go so off with a couple of chums.

Anything I should know? I don’t mind having a couple of bets to make it fun, it will only be small amounts of money anyway. Other than a few bets on the grand national I don’t think I’ve ever placed a bet, and never actually at a racecourse? I hope it’s not all done online nowadays. Is there a minimum bet?

 

[ouirdeaux]

The individual bookies will generally have a sign indicating the minimum amount they'll accept, and whether they take each-way bets. Look around for the best price.

There are also likely to be outlets of standard bookmakers at the course, along with the Tote. The latter is a pool bet -- i.e. the amount you get for a winner depends on how many others hold the same bet, but there's usually a display that gives you some idea of how the pool stands at any given time. Though obviously if you notice that a horse that the bookies are offering around 10/1 on is paying double that on the Tote, others may see it as well, and the amount will accordingly go down.

 

[ouirdeaux]

If you want to bet less than a fiver, you're better off at a on-course Ladbrokes or William Hill, or with the Tote, than with a standalone bookie. I've never seen anyone faff about with coins with one of them, although I have a hazy memory some may theoretically accept a £2 minimum bet.

 

[Elpenor]

I went to the dogs once 20 years ago and each of the course bookies had 3 chaps; one taking bets in a notebook, one adjusting the odds on a blackboard and one standing on a milk crate watching the other bookies and using a mixture of slang and sign language to advise the other two in his team of what to move the odds to

I hope it’s still like that, from you say it may not have changed much

Sounds like I will need cash for the bets? Think I’d rather use the standalones than a chain.

 

[ouirdeaux]

A brief google search revealed that card payment is now available, although cash is still widely used. I have to admit that I didn't really notice the only time I've been to the races post-Covid, because I bet on my phone. After all, I generally bet each-way, and internet bookies tend to offer more places than the statutory minimum. Also, it;s easier to compare prices, and you can get free bets if you spend a certain amount in a week. I did feel a bit guilty about this, though.

 

[mojo pixy]

I went to the dogs once 20 years ago and each of the course bookies had 3 chaps; one taking bets in a notebook, one adjusting the odds on a blackboard and one standing on a milk crate watching the other bookies and using a mixture of slang and sign language to advise the other two in his team of what to move the odds to

I hope it’s still like that, from you say it may not have changed much

Sounds like I will need cash for the bets? Think I’d rather use the standalones than a chain.

Aww you're not that bad

On horses, I like the racing but I don't bet or gamble any more. I like watching, I love a day at the races and I consider odds and form etc but never put money down. I like to be with people who do though and get some vicarious tension and excitement. I've been to a few courses (never visit a bookie ever) and last time I did it was at Chepstow a few years ago. One day I'll find a reason to go down to Newton Abbot course (I think I live even closer than you do Elpenor !) but I'm keeping an eye on this thread now I've seen it, just out of general interest.

 

[Elpenor]

There are 7 races, think I’ll miss the first two as only 3 runners and we’ll be having lunch somewhere

Have inspected the card and there are no horses with amusing names so will need to find another way to pick horses to back. There’s been a lot of rain here earlier in the week but should be dry for the next two days. Presumably the going will still be fairly heavy

 

[surreybrowncap]

There are 7 races, think I’ll miss the first two as only 3 runners and we’ll be having lunch somewhere

Have inspected the card and there are no horses with amusing names so will need to find another way to pick horses to back. There’s been a lot of rain here earlier in the week but should be dry for the next two days. Presumably the going will still be fairly heavy

Bruce Gobbler in the last!!
No not a enticing race day card - but you'll have a great time I'm sure.

 

[klang]

Anything I should know?

You might end up fancying a horse.

 

[surreybrowncap]

You might end up fancying a horse.

 

[AverageJoe]

Make sure you get on the rail trackside for one of the races. The noise a big race field makes is really something else.

 

[planetgeli]

Aww you're not that bad

On horses, I like the racing but I don't bet or gamble any more. I like watching, I love a day at the races and I consider odds and form etc but never put money down. I like to be with people who do though and get some vicarious tension and excitement. I've been to a few courses (never visit a bookie ever) and last time I did it was at Chepstow a few years ago. One day I'll find a reason to go down to Newton Abbot course (I think I live even closer than you do Elpenor !) but I'm keeping an eye on this thread now I've seen it, just out of general interest.

Chepstow is dire. It's one of those courses with a 2m circuit most of which takes place about 1.5m from where anyone can watch. Add blowy and miserable weather and it's one of the most depressing racecourses I've ever visited. My nearest course is Ffos Las. It's like a mini Chepstow with shite horses and shite fences. Don't even bother thinking of going there.

I've been to Newton Abbot, it's intimate and you can (or could) get on the course.

Having said that, having been brought up on horse racing, I've turned my back on it in the last decade or so. I can no longer defend the barbarism.

 

[surreybrowncap]

Make sure you get on the rail trackside for one of the races. The noise a big race field makes is really something else.

The first two races have only 3 horses participating - you’ll hear the jockeys chatting at least

 

[planetgeli]

The first two races have only 3 horses participating - you’ll hear the jockeys chatting at least

Plumpton is best for this. Small course, a dangerous back straight. Once heard a jockey (they do 3 circuits for anything above a 3 mile race), Sam someone, kinda well known in his time, doing hilarious self-commentary as he came to each fence down the (downhill, dangerous) back straight basically praying (with massive swearing) his horse was going to jump each fence and not kill him.

I still have time for jockeys. They are a different breed. "Break every bone in your career? Sure, why not."