Gulf of Mexico oil spill

[Falcon]

I've seen entrained sand cut through case hardened steel valves in an afternoon (a fluidised sand stream is the basis of an industrial cutting method). I think it's inconceivable that by now there hasn't been flow erosion of the wellhead components, especially if they were left out of position by partial deployment. It tends to be catastrophic once it starts---a small leak generates a very high flow rate, which amplifies the cutting force and it widens very quickly. So it is plausible that the well is now simply open to the formation and the rate is just governed by the difference in pressure between the reservoir and the water pressure at the well head. With that reservoir pressure, 70,000 barrels a day is also plausible. They are very fortunate this is relatively volatile stuff.

 

[Mooncat]

 

[Barking_Mad]

I've seen entrained sand cut through case hardened steel valves in an afternoon (a fluidised sand stream is the basis of an industrial cutting method). I think it's inconceivable that by now there hasn't been flow erosion of the wellhead components, especially if they were left out of position by partial deployment. It tends to be catastrophic once it starts---a small leak generates a very high flow rate, which amplifies the cutting force and it widens very quickly. So it is plausible that the well is now simply open to the formation and the rate is just governed by the difference in pressure between the reservoir and the water pressure at the well head. With that reservoir pressure, 70,000 barrels a day is also plausible. They are very fortunate this is relatively volatile stuff.

Im sure we're not being told the full story, the US Govt. has said this is a 'National Security issue' non? You used to work in the industry then?

 

[dilute micro]

Preaching to the choir but a good link. What they need to do is collect all the dead birds and pile them up in the yards of the execs and lawmakers till there aren't any birds left to be found.

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/life/main/7005416.html

Consequences will be inadequate food supplies for adult and young birds and disruption of the food chain. Tiny benthic animals (amphipods, mussels, clams) that burrow into sediments of beaches and marshes, and tiny pelagic animals (larval fishes, shrimps, jellies, copepods) and plants (algae of all kinds) that float in the upper surface waters are the very basis of the entire food web for the Gulf. The disruption of the food web and lack of adequate food supplies could reduce avian productivity for several years. If oil becomes embedded into sea and marsh sediments, it could be a decade before normal benthic productivity returns to 2010 levels.

 

[dilute micro]

Obama

"I did not appreciate what I considered to be a ridiculous spectacle," Obama said of the Congressional hearings this week. He unloading on the chiefs of BP, Transocean and Halliburton for "falling over each other to point the finger of blame at somebody else. The American people could not have been impressed with that display, and I certainly wasn't," he said. Obama also slammed the Minerals Management Service, the government regulatory agency responsible for issuing drilling permits, for its "cozy relationship" with the companies it is charged with overseeing.


"It seems as if permits were too often issues based on little more than assurances of safety from the oil companies. That cannot and will not happen anymore," he said. "To borrow an old phrase, we will trust but we will verify."

"Clearly the system failed,"

http://swampland.blogs.time.com/2010/05/14/obama-talks-tough-on-oil-spill/

 

[two sheds]

Yes, although you could also say that the US government is falling over itself trying to 'point the finger of blame' at the oil companies when the government was the organisation ultimately responsible. They ordered the drilling and gave the permits - if they didn't verify then they have no-one to blame but themselves.

 

[existentialist]

Yes, although you could also say that the US government is falling over itself trying to 'point the finger of blame' at the oil companies when the government was the organisation ultimately responsible. They ordered the drilling and gave the permits - if they didn't verify then they have no-one to blame but themselves.

I think Obama's point is precisely that: the agencies that the government might reasonably have expected to push "their" end of the arrangement got into bed with the very people they were supposed to be policing.

Blame is all very well, but what Obama is - deliberately or otherwise - pointing out here is that working out who to blame isn't taking us anywhere nearer a situation where something like this can be significantly less likely to happen again. If he's admitting that the regulatory service was in a cosy relationship with the oil companies, it rather indicates that he's probably not going to let such arrangements arise in future, and that can only be a good thing.

 

[Dr Jon]

Looks now as though this is MUCH more serious than has been admitted:

Scientists find vast unreported oil leak from Deepwater Horizon

 

[Barking_Mad]

Looks now as though this is MUCH more serious than has been admitted:

Scientists find vast unreported oil leak from Deepwater Horizon

Yet this story isn't anywhere near the top of the news agenda.

 

[Dr Jon]

Yet this story isn't anywhere near the top of the news agenda.

Possibly because of the sheer scale and unstoppable nature of this tragedy, its devastating effect on ecosystems and livelihoods and the likely bankruptcy of BP by the time this is over. Probably judged to be too depressing, especially with the world economy in such a delicate state.

 

[Falcon]

I must admit, I was expecting BP and the US government to cut a deal to limit BP's liability, but judging from this letter (PDF) from the Secretary of State to Hayward on Friday, that's not going to happen:

Based on these statements, we understand that BP will not in any way seek to rely on the potential $75 million statutory cap to refuse to provide compensation to any individuals or others harmed by the oil spill, even if more than $75 million is required to provide full compensation to all claimants, and BP will not seek reimbursement from the American taxpayers, the United States Government, or the Oil Spill Liability Trust Fund for any amount.

The public has a right to a clear understanding of BP's commitment to redress all of the damage that has occurred or that will occur in the future as a result of the oil spill. Therefore, in the event that our understanding is inaccurate, we request immediate public clarification of BP's true intentions. ...

 

[AnandLeo]

Armchair Crisis Management.

When we watch disasters, crises, and incidents on the TV we get only a view of what the TV shows us. We are not in a state to make a conclusive analysis of the situation beyond doubt.

In the US oil rig disaster, I have seen vague expalanations of how the rig is protected by a safety containment valve in case of a well blowout, and how the oil is presumed to leak on to the sea. On the basis of these images I had some ideas of how the pollution might be brought under control. But I don’t know exactly what submersible-robot technologies are readily available to operate at 1 mile below the surface. At least I am not sure of what the people involved are capable of doing. Then they showed the proposed containment domes and problems with ice crystals. This approach was beyond my initial imagination and is a less effective means. Then they showed the actual damage to the pipeline and gushing out of oil and gas. Then I thought they could attach a connection to the exposed end of the broken pipe. Not exactly similar to the midair refuelling system, but something more mundane and practical, flange connection device. Now at last they have inserted a smaller pipeline to extract some of the oil. Good idea! I am not an oilrig expert, but from my armchair, they have done something within my grasp of practical creativity.

 

[dilute micro]

The one ship associated with NOAA that had been doing such research is back in Pascagoula, Miss., having completed a week-long cruise during which scientists taking underwater samples found signs of just the kind of plume that environmentalists fear could have devastating effects on sea life of all shapes and sizes.

Meanwhile, the commander of the NOAA vessel that the White House on Friday claimed in a press release "is now providing information for oil spill related research" told HuffPost on Tuesday that he's actually far away, doing something else entirely.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/05/18/gulf-oil-spill-government_n_580815.html

 

[Barking_Mad]

Fresh video showing oil leaking as of 17th May

http://www.youtube.com/user/SenatorBoxer#p/u/0/vPHb3f1BVj8

 

[Barking_Mad]

Gulf Oil to reach Florida Keys within a week

 

[ferrelhadley]

Gulf Oil to reach Florida Keys within a week

Likely areas of impact once oil gets into the Loop Current
Based on a study of 194 floating probes released into the Northeast Gulf of Mexico during a 1-year study in the 1990s (Figure 2), the west coast of Florida from Tampa Bay southwards to the Everglades is at minimal risk of receiving oil from surface currents. There is a "forbidden zone" off the southwest Florida coast where the shape of the coast, bottom configuration, and prevailing winds all act to create upwelling and surface currents that tend to take water away from the coast. This study implies that the greatest risk of land impacts by surface oil caught in the Loop Current is along the ocean side of the Florida Keys, and along the coast of Southeast Florida from Miami to West Palm Beach. Eddies breaking away from the Gulf Stream would also likely bring oil to northwest Cuba, the western Bahamas, and the U.S. East Coast as far north as Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, though at lesser concentrations. Southwest Florida cannot rest entirely, though--the "forbidden zone" is only true for surface waters, and there is onshore flow below the surface. Since recent ship measurements have detected substantial plumes of oil beneath the surface, southwest Florida might be at risk if one of these plumes gets entrained into the Loop Current. These subsurface plumes were also detected by current probes launched into the oil spill on May 8 by one of NOAA's hurricane hunter aircraft, according to one scientist I spoke to at last week's AMS hurricane conference. There are plans for the Hurricane Hunters to go out again tomorrow and drop more probes into the spill to attempt to get a better handle on where the oil is and where the currents are taking it.

Link

However, Synthetic Aperture Radar imagery from the European Envisat satellite posted at ROFFS Ocean Forecasting Service shows that while some of the tongue of oil that entered the Loop Current appears to be circulating southwards towards the Florida Keys, perhaps 80% of the oil in this tongue is caught in a counter-clockwise circulating eddy along the north side of the Loop Current. This oil may eventually circulate around and enter the Loop Current, but not for at least three days.

Link

According to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA, the tongue of oil flowing southwards has at most "light" concentrations. The oil will grow more dilute as it travels the 500 miles to the Florida Keys. My present expectation is that the oil entering the Loop Current this week will cause only minor problems in the Keys next week.

Link

FWIW the experts suggest that strong heavy weather helps break up big oil spills or at least accelerates the enviroment in breaking it down. Oil actualy has microbes that eat it and by heavy weather breaking up the spill and distributing the organic material through the ocean. The biggest danger for oil is in high concentrations, storms help mix it up.

 

[Dr Jon]

I thought BP were supposed to be "beyond petroleum" ?

Beyond hope is more like it...

 

[dilute micro]

Crazy props to Kevin Costner who for the last 15 years has been funding a team of scientists studying oil clean up. (his brother is one)

http://www.nydailynews.com/news/nat...tners_invention__device_to_clean_oil_fro.html

 

[Barking_Mad]

Live Feed of Oil Spilling into Ocean

 

[Falcon]

BP employees got an email from Hayward this week telling them their pensions were OK. Major Oil company employees are so complacent, this is roughly the equivalent of getting an email from Obama telling you your country will still be functioning tomorrow. Hmmm.

 

[TruXta]

Just no.

Crazy props to Kevin Costner who for the last 15 years has been funding a team of scientists studying oil clean up. (his brother is one)

http://www.nydailynews.com/news/nat...tners_invention__device_to_clean_oil_fro.html

 

[xes]

CBS journalists threatened with arrest for filming the oil spill.

Fucking cunts.

 

[xes]

Here's a couple of pictures taken from a commercial flight, of the gulf of Mexico.

 

[Barking_Mad]

The dire impact of the massive Gulf spill was apparent Sunday on oil-soaked islands where pelicans nest as several of the birds splashed in the water and preened themselves, apparently trying to clean crude from their feet and wings.

Pelican eggs were glazed with rust-colored gunk in the bird colony, with thick globs floating on top of the water. Nests sat precariously close the mess in mangrove trees. As oil crept farther into the delicate wetlands in Barataria Bay off Louisiana, BP officials said Sunday that one of their efforts to slow the leak wasn't working as effectively as before.

BP spokesman John Curry told The Associated Press on Sunday that a mile-long tube inserted into the leaking well siphoned some 57,120 gallons of oil within the past 24 hours, a sharp drop from the 92,400 gallons of oil a day that the device was sucking up on Friday. However, the company has said the amount of oil siphoned will vary widely from day to day.

Engineers are working furiously to stem the growing ooze as more wildlife and delicate coastal wetlands are tainted despite the oil-absorbing booms placed around shorelines to protect them.

A pelican colony off Louisiana's coast was awash in oil Saturday, and an Associated Press photographer saw several birds and their eggs coated in the ooze while nests rested in mangroves precariously close to the crude that had washed in. Workers had surrounded the island with the booms, but puddles of oil had seeped through the barrier.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/feedarticle/9092407

 

[Dr Jon]

Florida State scientist: NOAA ignores spill findings

A prominent oceanographer, who was among the first to say official estimates understated the volume of the Gulf of Mexico oil spill, charged Tuesday that a federal agency is punishing scientists whose findings disagree with government figures

 

[xes]

I can't find any verifiable links, but there's talk "out there" of the ammount of gas coming out being 3000 times more in volume, than the oil. If that's true, then that's even more fucked up. Have they proper done it this time?

 

[xes]

And this blogger, is keeping an eye on the spill cam, he reckons there's been a big explosion.
http://monkeyfister.blogspot.com/2010/05/major-change-down-below.html

Here is the BP spill cam, incase it's not on the thread already...
http://www.bp.com/liveassets/bp_int...local_assets/bp_homepage/html/rov_stream.html

 

[Barking_Mad]

removed

 

[Barking_Mad]

From 19th May

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=44006

 

[Crispy]

woah! I'll just make that massive image into a link