Gulf of Mexico oil spill

[Mooncat]

Disaster movies prefer stuff where the disaster happens really quickly and the special effects are stunning.

And there's a happy ending

 

[Falcon]

Yeah, tell me more, is it theoretically possible that all the coasts and oceans of the world could be affected?

You can't really speculate at this stage. The Soviets had a few massive spills in the Caspian but we have no data for spills of this size on how far they will travel. Waves and wind disperses it, bacteria degrades it as long as it stays away from land and the sea is very, very big. But of course its heading toward land. They are estimating leak rates right now from satellite images and measuring the surface area and the WSJ is reporting 25,000 bbl/d now. But oil on water is like blood - a small amount covers a lot of area. There are just too many unknowns right now.

 

[Bernie Gunther]

Oh this is going to be good. The media focuses on damages associated with money like fish and shrimp but when this hits the coast and all the marshes it's going to be like a nuclear bomb to wetland ecosystems. Big fish out at sea start their lives in the sounds which are nurseries for baby money fish and other things. There's just no way BP is going to pay to fix so mind boggling hard to clean up and I'm not sure that even accounts for damages. It's going to be impossible to clean this up. I wonder if the states involved can sue.

They've got plenty of money. The only reason why they won't have to pay the damage is they spend their money effectively on lobbying.

 

[elbows]

OK Ive done a little bit of research. The gulf loop current may carry the oil into the main gulf stream, which would likely have some pretty horrific ramifications for a much wider area. Currents at deeper levels are not quite so well understood.

Apparently the next chance to try to stem the flow is in 6-8 days when they will try to place containment boxes over the leaks.

 

[bi0boy]

Hmmm not sure about a wider effect other than on the surface.

5000 barrels is 790 cubic metres but the atlantic is 3x10^17 cubic metres

 

[dilute micro]

Hmmm not sure about a wider effect other than on the surface.

5000 barrels is 790 cubic metres but the atlantic is 3x10^17 cubic metres

elbow means it could round the bottom of Florida and head up the east coast.

 

[weltweit]

That photo up the thread. It does not look to me that it was taken under water, epecially near an open gusher. Surely the water would at least be murky, perhaps some sedement or stuff floating about in it. Image does not ring true to me.

 

[dilute micro]

How many executives and lobbyists would it take to plug the hole?

 

[rasrave]

Well I am sitting on my back porch and can smell the fumes every now and again. I am in Biloxi on the coast and live about 2 blocks from the beach.
For a local perspective, try the Sun Herald (local paper) http://www.sunherald.com/ or Wlox tv (local news) http://www.wlox.com/
Most people here are scared that this may be the death knell for this area, as it has been hard enough to recover after Katrina. The impact on the fishing and wildlife is expected to be severe and last for years. This in turn will cripple the fishing industry and tourism, two of the big earners around here.
Winds are blowing from the south and pushing the slick towards the coastline. To add to the misery, the booms that have been put into place are breaking up due to the high tides and severe weather we are currently having here...when it rains it pours.

 

[Bernie Gunther]

How many executives and lobbyists would it take to plug the hole?

Be an interesting experiment.

The wife was saying something to the effect that BP could have put in a failsafe but opted instead to save money. I don't have a source for that right now but it sounds horribly plausible.

 

[Superdupastupor]

Anecdotal reports have revealed that TransOcean who owned the rig leased by British Petroleum did not deploy $500,000 state-of-the-art Norwegian blowout preventers which an acoustic valve that can help assure activation in the event of an accident. TransOcean knew that a blowout preventer with acoustic valves was state of the art but they opted for blowout preventers without the acoustic valves. I guess they saved money installing the rig.

If the Gulf oil spill does not stop and destroys the entire coastline of all the Gulf Coast states, the nation might finally be forced into an aggressive clean energy future where. It's a sad and tragic impetus for a national clean energy policy..

A post from an other forum.

This what you talking about Bernie?

 

[dilute micro]

And US law doesn't require the blowout preventers from what I've read. I wonder if that alone might be the concession. The lawmakers and oil companies can give the impression they're doing something.

I hate the way the media is hardwired to report only things connected to profit and money. So the public will either feel effected by this or not. When they eventually start showing handfulls of people scrubbing handfulls of birds it's going to look like success. They need to be interviewing local wetland scientists. I'd love to hear what they have to say.

 

[weltweit]

What is a baiu .. if that is even spelled correctly.

There appear only to be baiu in Louisiana. I have never heard of any anywhere else.

 

[Superdupastupor]

Bayou I think is a native American word for mangrove/ wetlands that made it's way into English to describe the coast around the mouth of the Mississippi .

 

[spring-peeper]

Well I am sitting on my back porch and can smell the fumes every now and again. I am in Biloxi on the coast and live about 2 blocks from the beach.
For a local perspective, try the Sun Herald (local paper) http://www.sunherald.com/ or Wlox tv (local news) http://www.wlox.com/
Most people here are scared that this may be the death knell for this area, as it has been hard enough to recover after Katrina. The impact on the fishing and wildlife is expected to be severe and last for years. This in turn will cripple the fishing industry and tourism, two of the big earners around here.
Winds are blowing from the south and pushing the slick towards the coastline. To add to the misery, the booms that have been put into place are breaking up due to the high tides and severe weather we are currently having here...when it rains it pours.

I hope you kept us posted on what is going on.

 

[Falcon]

 

[dilute micro]

limbaugh-suggests-environmentalists-planned-oil-spill

...because environmentalists like seeing environmental devastation on an incredible scale.

Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger is withdrawing his support of a plan to expand oil drilling off the California coast, citing the environmental tragedy in the Gulf of Mexico.

Speaking during a news conference Monday, Schwarzenegger said television images of the oil spill in the Gulf have changed his mind about the safety of ocean-based oil platforms.

The Republican governor had proposed expanding oil drilling off the coast of Santa Barbara to help close the state's $20-billion budget deficit.

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/gre...expand-drilling-off-the-california-coast.html

 

[dilute micro]

The latest satellite image of the oil slick in the Gulf of Mexico indicates it has shrunk since last week. But scientists say that only means some of the oil has gone underwater.

Hans Graber of the University of Miami Center for Southeastern Tropical Advanced Remote Sensing said Monday the new image found oil covering about 2,000 square miles. The slick was roughly 3,400 square miles last Thursday.

Graber says the apparent shrinkage came about because some of the oil that had been visible at the surface has been mixed into the water, as strong winds have kicked up waves.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/05/03/AR2010050303822.html

 

[dilute micro]

The oil dispersants being used in the gulf spill may help destroy the oil a little faster, but their primary purpose is to alter its destination so that the oil stays in the deep ocean rather than reaching the shore.

Scientists don't know much about the oil's ultimate effect in the deeps, but most agree that it will have a much larger biological effect if it reaches the coast, which is teeming with wildlife.

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-sci-0504-oil-dispersants-20100503,0,2875446.story

 

[Barking_Mad]

 

[Barking_Mad]

Jackye Carroll was walking along the beach that runs outside her home in Pass Christian, Mississippi, early this morning when she came across a curious sight. The sun had just come up and the white sand beach was looking at its most beautiful, but there, just above the gently lapping sea of the Gulf of Mexico was a grey-brown mound of flesh about two to three feet in length.

She put on the gloves that she had brought along in anticipation, and turned the mound over to find that it was a Loggerhead, one of the five threatened species of sea turtle found in this region. The sand around it was being stained red by blood seeping from its nose and underbelly. It was dead.

With the help of a neighbour, she carried the turtle up the beach as she had been instructed to do, and left it by a wooden post where it was still lying a few hours later, by now starting to smell in the muggy Mississippi heat. "I've lived here 20 years and I've never seen a dead turtle on this beach before," Carroll said.

All along this strip, and the 26 miles of beaches to which it connects, people have been reporting similar mysterious sightings over the past couple of days. This morning eight sea turtles were found dead in Pass Christian, in addition to nine yesterday, bringing the total number of dead turtle sightings in the wider area to at least 31.

Tests on the animals were being carried out at the Institute of Sea Mammal Studies in Gulfport, 10 minutes' drive along the sea from Pass Christian. The institute specialises in the study and treatment of stranded dolphins, sea turtles and other marine life and has a dedicated laboratory where 23 turtles are being kept in plastic bags in an animal morgue. Among them are Loggerheads, Leatherheads and Kemp's Ridley – the most critically endangered species of sea turtle in the Gulf.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2010/may/03/deepwater-horizon-oil-spill-turtle-deaths-soar

 

[dilute micro]

Changing weather patterns have helped those mitigation efforts. Forecasters now believe winds and currents will keep the spill off Alabama shores for at least another three days.

"If we can get three or four days behind us, I think we're going to be in pretty good shape here," Gov. Riley said.

Contractors and volunteers continue to deploy inflatable oil containment boom around oyster beds and other environmentally sensitive areas. On Dauphin Island, where high seas damaged some of the traditional boom, National Guard soldiers are installing HESCO barriers -- mesh filled with a chemical solution that absorbs oil and solidifies for easy removal.

http://liveshots.blogs.foxnews.com/2010/05/04/oil-spill-time-on-alabamas-side/?test=latestnews

 

[moon]

I dont understand how this drilling was allowed without full emergency recovery plans being in place.

How could any corp have been given permission to drill a mile under the sea without the usual operator regulations being enforced.

I'm hoping that there is some show of concern towards BP about this in the form of a peaceful demo etc

 

[Falcon]

Washington Post 5th May

Three scientists in separate interviews Tuesday said the gulf's "loop current," a powerful conveyor belt that extends about 3,000 feet deep, will almost surely take the oil down through the eastern gulf to the Straits of Florida, a week-long trip, roughly. The oil would then hang a sharp left, riding the Florida Current past the Keys and north again, directly into the Gulf Stream, which could carry it within spitting distance of Palm Beach and up the East Coast to Cape Hatteras, N.C.

"It really is a catastrophe," [Matt] Simmons said. "I don't think they're going to be able to put the leak out until the reservoir depletes. It's just too technically challenging." He said BP's cleanup costs could ruin the company. "They're going to have to clean up the Gulf of Mexico," he said.

 

[Falcon]

Whatever pressure containment and flow restriction there is being provided by equipment which is now operating under conditions they were not designed for which, if it fails, will result in significant or total loss of containment.

Looks like BP are concerned about sand erosion of the restriction leading to full loss of containment, and estimates originating from them on the upper flow rate in the region of 40,000 to 50,000 barrels a day, not the 30,000 I estimated.

"When the oil is removed normally, it comes out at a controlled rate. You can still have abrasive particles in that. Well, now, at this well, its coming out at fairly high velocity," Gouguet continued. "Any erosive grains are abrading the inside of the pipe and all the steel that comes in contact with the liquid. It's essentially sanding away the pipe."

They have plugged one leak of three in tubular. That increases the flow rate and therefore the erosion rate in the other two.

There is, as far as I know, no way to recap a well flowing 30,000-50,000 barrels a day at that depth. This is light, volatile crude and even with the dispersal coming up from that depth, trying to run a surface operation with that quantity of crude on the surface would be very difficult.

They would just have to wait for pressure to deplete and the rate to abate which, depending on the size of the reservoir, could take months. BP shares are recovering slightly, with the market estimating the impact of the spill to the company currently at around $20 billion. If it goes south in the worst case scenario it could probably bankrupt the company---they have huge cash reserves, but not open ended reserves that a spill of this magnitude might require. Then it will come down to a fight over Federal laws and externalising the cost onto the US taxpayer, but of course the US is technically bankrupt.

Leaked report: Government fears Deepwater Horizon well could become unchecked gusher April 30

 

[dilute micro]

http://www.boston.com/bigpicture/2010/04/oil_spill_approaches_louisiana.html

 

[dilute micro]

 

[elbows]

Some of the ramifications being discussed by various media:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/seealso/2010/05/see_also_gulf_of_mexico_oil_sp.html

Rush Limbaughs conspiracy theory that environmentalists blew it up = lol.

 

[Yuwipi Woman]

Rush Limbaughs conspiracy theory that environmentalists blew it up = lol.

That's just the oxycontin talking.

 

[dilute micro]

Crews began lowering a dome to cap an oil leak in the Gulf of Mexico in a bid to avert a major environmental disaster as patches of oil began washing up on land.

Coast Guard Petty Officer Michael De Nyse said the dome designed to contain oil leaking from a ruptured undersea well went into the water after 10:00pm (local time) on Thursday.

"It's on its way down. It takes roughly 10 hours to get to the bottom," he said.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/05/07/2893694.htm?section=justin


the dome
http://www.abc.net.au/news/photos/#num=3&id=2890475