Greece: Euro crisis
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Gmart
Well-Known Member
They'll not pay, and see it out - they'll get devalued but only so far - they'll get money from all round the world because everyone else wants a Europe which is unified.
London_Calling
Pleasant and unpatronising
Fuck the political class appeasers! etc.
camouflage
gaslit at scale.
Three... four percent tops. Basically a marginal consideration.
Besides, how much social welfare isn't claimed in Greece because families are more likely to look after their elderly relatives, or how many people that would otherwise be unemployed get to work cash-in-hand and not claim money from the state for their spending? Greece can't function in its own way, consistent to the realities of its way of life due to being leashed to banking interests, German and French banks as I've read both in this thread and elsewhere, but I'm not really sure what nationality means when you're a banking corporation.
So it's the "keep digging ya fuckers", that's the problem imo.
Kid_Eternity
Quis custodiet ipsos custodes?
First move advantage?
I think it was more a case of the Greek government 'playing' with the figures rather than other EU member countries truning a blind eye. It was when Greece became exposed to the reality of their economy the shit hit the fan.
The EU is looking very fragile ATM. It will be when the bigger players need support the real shit will hit the fan.
And, having spent the last month, or Two in Germany, on street level at least, they're as fucked as anyone.
A Dashing Blade
Takes horses to water but can't make donkeys drink
Fair enough if that's your view.
No idea and neither, I suspect, do you.
In Greece, how many people work black and DON'T claim benefits? . . . would guess far nearer fuck-all than 100%
Bottom line, Greece's debt repayments on it's Govt bond are a tad over EUR11bn per year, estimates of what it loses through tax evaision start at around EUR15bn.
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
Commentator on the radio at the start of the week saying it's just a matter of when and not if Greece leaves the euro. Certainly they look like they'll continue to be fucked if they don't. Interesting comment from the bloke, though. He said that Greece would not be the only country forced to leave the euro, but that there was a far neater solution to the problem - Germany leaves the euro.
I hadn't quite thought about it in those terms before - in the end, it is the Germans who are acting the most selfishly in all this.
I hadn't quite thought about it in those terms before - in the end, it is the Germans who are acting the most selfishly in all this.
love detective
there's no love too small
this has been raised as a possibility quite a few times over the last few months - but i can't see Germany going it alone - more likely to be a Northern Euro
Germany's experience of the first half of the 20th century has lead the political class to fear two things the most - currency instability and nationalism - up until now keeping these two things in check have been complimentary things done within the framework of increasing european integration and doing so arguably lead to the creation of the euro in the first place
Now however they are in conflict, continued support of Greece and other southern europe states (in their eyes) threatens monetary stability at home while persuing a more conservative monetary policy at home threatens the pan-european ideal. Something's got to give - the way forward is clearly either going to be increased integration (fiscal union, economic government, european treasury etc and the loss of 'national sovereignty' that brings ) or much less (disintegration, splintering, tower of babel etc..)
Germany's experience of the first half of the 20th century has lead the political class to fear two things the most - currency instability and nationalism - up until now keeping these two things in check have been complimentary things done within the framework of increasing european integration and doing so arguably lead to the creation of the euro in the first place
Now however they are in conflict, continued support of Greece and other southern europe states (in their eyes) threatens monetary stability at home while persuing a more conservative monetary policy at home threatens the pan-european ideal. Something's got to give - the way forward is clearly either going to be increased integration (fiscal union, economic government, european treasury etc and the loss of 'national sovereignty' that brings ) or much less (disintegration, splintering, tower of babel etc..)
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
After saying this, the bloke was asked whether he thought it was likely Germany would leave the euro. He said 'no'. He clearly thought it was the best solution, though.
Divisive Cotton
Now I just have my toy soldiers
commentators seem to think that this next round austerity - unlike the last - is not likely to be passed by the Greek parliament
ElizabethofYork
Old Crone
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
It would seem that the one thing that most definitely isn't going to happen is that Greece will pay up what they are said to owe by their creditors. That will have to be renegotiated.
But looking at it from the point of view of the creditors, there is no sense whatever in the current austerity. Who gets cunted by the austerity measures? The poor, clearly, with benefits, pensions and various other government payments reduced. And they are precisely the ones you need to keep spending if you are to have any hope of economic growth. The creditors' best hope of retrieving the largest share of their money is for the Greek economy to start growing again (stopping from contracting would be a start!).
Anyway, crystal balls anyone? What do you think is the most likely outcome? I confess that I don't quite know how to judge it.
But looking at it from the point of view of the creditors, there is no sense whatever in the current austerity. Who gets cunted by the austerity measures? The poor, clearly, with benefits, pensions and various other government payments reduced. And they are precisely the ones you need to keep spending if you are to have any hope of economic growth. The creditors' best hope of retrieving the largest share of their money is for the Greek economy to start growing again (stopping from contracting would be a start!).
Anyway, crystal balls anyone? What do you think is the most likely outcome? I confess that I don't quite know how to judge it.
Gmart
Well-Known Member
It would take a lot to get Greece out of the Euro - they will probably aim at the pyrrhic victory with a series of renegotiated debt deals, and a proper review of the problems in the economy.
The rest of the world are well up for a united Europe to do business with, and as a unit, standing together the 27 countries (so far, the Balkans will get there within a decade or so), gives the governments the needed scope of influence to face the problems of globalisation.
The poor will always be the ones who suffer the most in society - that is not to say that one cannot have safety nets set up to mitigate it as much as possible - it depends how well a country uses its resources.
London_Calling
Pleasant and unpatronising
Who detemined those are the choices?
If Greece defaults, Germany and esp. France will have to support their banks. If they need any advice on how that works I'm sure Gordon Brown is available.
If Greece defaults, Germany and esp. France will have to support their banks. If they need any advice on how that works I'm sure Gordon Brown is available.
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
It is exactly that safety net that is slashed during austerity measures, whether they are in Greece or the UK. And given that the poor have the highest marginal propensity to consume - ie they spend their money as soon as they get it - cutting the income of the poorest in society is a sure way to plunge a fragile economy into recession. That was my point. Not a moral one - although there clearly is also a moral question - but a point about whether or not austerity measures are what Greece's creditors ought to be pushing for, out of their own self-interest.
camouflage
gaslit at scale.
Precisely. No one knows. A big pile of receipts is all well and good but GDP doesn't necessarily tell you everything going on with how work and wealth travels round a society. So the Greek government has effectively been subsidizing the whole Greek economy, a corrupted gift of off-the-books black cash and lots of transfer payments. So where was the Greek Tiger this kind of situation should have produced before it all went pear-shaped? The financial system is an alien presence in the world of work and spending in my opinion. Blaming un-taxed work for the situation seems to miss the point entirely. This whole thing is about the international debt industry and the politics and power thereof.
Proves my point really, the debt's the goal.
danny la rouge
More like *fanny* la rouge!
"Turned a blind eye". That's one way of looking at it. The other is that the Germany capitalist class was benefiting from the Greek industrial base being decimated over the last two decades. And now that the Greek economy has run up the debt (to the benefit of the owning classes, largely in Germany), those who now have that money don't want to pay the interest. They want the poor to pay, so they say "the only way is austerity for the poor".
Germany, on the other hand, has defaulted on its own loans more often than any other European country. It's now in a position where it is doing a lot of export trade with China. However, in the G20 at Toronto, the opposite course of action to the Greek austerity plan was agreed for China: higher wages, better social security, to increase demand and secure growth. So this austerity programme isn't an economic project, it's a project designed to benefit one class over another.
It starts to look less like "turning a blind eye" and more like a deliberate policy of asset stripping.
http://globalinsolvency.com/headlines/bargain-hunting-greece
London_Calling
Pleasant and unpatronising
Not sure about asset striping; to my mind, and as I mentioned at the beginning of the thread, it's imperialism. Having said that, the entire euro project is imperial projection so we shouldn't be too surprised.
I'd be interested in a cite for this?
Brainaddict
slight system overdrive
It depends how long term you look surely? I reckon the creditors want to get as much as they can right this moment, since they aren't sure what the future will bring. They need to squeeze the greek people as hard and as fast as they can in order to retrieve as much of their investment as possible in the short term. Medium to long term the whole global economy is looking fucked - and I think a lot of finance people know this - so it isn't in their interests to hang around patiently hoping the Greek economy recovers. At this point its doubtful whether even the US economy will recover, let alone the greek one.
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
It doesn't make sense long- or short-term. Greece is in recession - squeezing the poor in Greece is just going to make that recession worse and give the Greek govt even less money to pay its debts with.
That's the whole point - that austerity doesn't reduce government debt.
That's the whole point - that austerity doesn't reduce government debt.
Brainaddict
slight system overdrive
Yes, I know, but the point I'm making is, perhaps they suspect Greece may never recover in the foreseeable future, whether austerity is instituted or not, so they've got to get what they can now.
The short-termism of creditors may be driven by more prosaic things as well - like making sure this year's balance sheet looks ok, and never mind about the balance sheet in 5 years cos you might be working somewhere else then anyway so who cares?
The short-termism of creditors may be driven by more prosaic things as well - like making sure this year's balance sheet looks ok, and never mind about the balance sheet in 5 years cos you might be working somewhere else then anyway so who cares?
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
It seems to me that it's almost a moral demand - if we're going to give you money, you have to cut spending. Clearly the moral demand ought to be 'if we're going to give you money, you have to make a concerted effort to tax the rich'. But that's not the kind of thing the rich want to be encouraging anywhere...
danny la rouge
More like *fanny* la rouge!
The one that had it ranked as 27th in the world for GNP in 2009 by the world bank. http://www.pdwb.de/archiv/weltbank/cache-gdp09.htmer what Greek industrial base
danny la rouge
More like *fanny* la rouge!
Really? I'd have thought that was common knowledge for anyone who had studied history or modern studies at school? Anyway, here: http://www.cadtm.org/The-Marshall-Plan-and-the-Debt
danny la rouge
More like *fanny* la rouge!
It's feral businessmen and politicians engaging in looting. As usual.
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