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Global financial system implosion begins

FHFA Announces Validation of FICO 10T and VantageScore® 4.0 for Use by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac | FEDERAL HOUSING FINANCE AGENCY

Washington, D.C. – The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) today announced the validation and approval of both the FICO 10T credit score model and the VantageScore 4.0 credi
www.fhfa.gov www.fhfa.gov

united-states-interest-rate.png



nypost.com

US housing market decline to worsen in 2023, Goldman Sachs warns

Goldman Sachs has warned that the housing market downturn will get worse in 2023 when home price growth will reach a stall.
nypost.com nypost.com


2008 was caused by sub prime debt .
Whilst inflation has caused the cost of living to increase, interest rates have also risen from effectively nothing, whilst still low in historic terms very much a boiling frog for those with debt to service. Also increasing are the number of articles relating to companies reducing their workforce....All of which impacts on debtors being able to meet their payments on the loans that they have to service....Then they make it easier for those with poor credit history to get on the housing ladder....
 
The mortgage situation is massively different now compared with 2008. You’re looking in the wrong place for the next source of collapse. It’s not going to be a simple repeat of history
 
kabbes said:
The mortgage situation is massively different now compared with 2008. You’re looking in the wrong place for the next source of collapse. It’s not going to be a simple repeat of history
Click to expand...
Completely! It would be a disaster to print their way out of it! Central banks seem to grasp that.
 
gosub said:

FHFA Announces Validation of FICO 10T and VantageScore® 4.0 for Use by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac | FEDERAL HOUSING FINANCE AGENCY

Washington, D.C. – The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) today announced the validation and approval of both the FICO 10T credit score model and the VantageScore 4.0 credi
www.fhfa.gov www.fhfa.gov

united-states-interest-rate.png



nypost.com

US housing market decline to worsen in 2023, Goldman Sachs warns

Goldman Sachs has warned that the housing market downturn will get worse in 2023 when home price growth will reach a stall.
nypost.com nypost.com


2008 was caused by sub prime debt .
Whilst inflation has caused the cost of living to increase, interest rates have also risen from effectively nothing, whilst still low in historic terms very much a boiling frog for those with debt to service. Also increasing are the number of articles relating to companies reducing their workforce....All of which impacts on debtors being able to meet their payments on the loans that they have to service....Then they make it easier for those with poor credit history to get on the housing ladder....
Click to expand...
Seems to me the UK and US housing markets are completely different.
The US market can go up and down like a yoyo - and also depends a lot on particular states.
This taste of US housing negative equity 1997-2007 is salutory
neg eq.jpg
This sort of thing doesn't seem to happen in the same way in the UK - although the aftermath of the post-EU accession housing boom in Spain and Ireland was as brutal.
I first became a flat-owner in 1978 Brixton and for us a combination of Mrs Thatcher and the first Brixton riot in 1981 caused a complete market freeze for about 4 years - nothing sold at all. Negative equity was not a concept at that time.
After I moved in 1986 there were two period of "negative equity" for those who bought a the top on mini booms - but generally people seemed to work round this on moving - presumably mortgage lenders tweeked the capital value of their new mortgages to take into account the negative equity being carried over.
I had a video cassette with a BBC Panorama progamme moaning about house prices being unaffordable (maybe 1989) and another BBC Panorama where we were all doomed by negative equity (1993?).
Seemingly in a Labour/Tory property owning - and buy-to-let paradise the Bank of England and the government have never taken their foot off the accelerator since the accession of Tony Blair. This necessitated Brown & Darling applying QE in 2007.
So I sit back and wonder - will we now have the first UK housing slump/crash/adjustment since 1994 - or will they magic up some more of that helpful QE?
 
CH1 said:
Seems to me the UK and US housing markets are completely different.
The US market can go up and down like a yoyo - and also depends a lot on particular states.
This taste of US housing negative equity 1997-2007 is salutory
View attachment 352360
This sort of thing doesn't seem to happen in the same way in the UK - although the aftermath of the post-EU accession housing boom in Spain and Ireland was as brutal.
I first became a flat-owner in 1978 Brixton and for us a combination of Mrs Thatcher and the first Brixton riot in 1981 caused a complete market freeze for about 4 years - nothing sold at all. Negative equity was not a concept at that time.
After I moved in 1986 there were two period of "negative equity" for those who bought a the top on mini booms - but generally people seemed to work round this on moving - presumably mortgage lenders tweeked the capital value of their new mortgages to take into account the negative equity being carried over.
I had a video cassette with a BBC Panorama progamme moaning about house prices being unaffordable (maybe 1989) and another BBC Panorama where we were all doomed by negative equity (1993?).
Seemingly in a Labour/Tory property owning - and buy-to-let paradise the Bank of England and the government have never taken their foot off the accelerator since the accession of Tony Blair. This necessitated Brown & Darling applying QE in 2007.
So I sit back and wonder - will we now have the first UK housing slump/crash/adjustment since 1994 - or will they magic up some more of that helpful QE?
Click to expand...
They are very different....US are usually on longer fixed terms mortgages for a start. Plus US system you could post keys through letterbox and walk away from negative equity unscathed (or you could in 2008). UK Autumn statement apparently also included a paragraph about bringing in changes whereby a working UC claimant will be able to use UC to pay mortgage after 3 months....Is interesting looking at the right wing reaction to that budget, UC to them means job seekers (latest .gov stats 1.7mill on UC coz they are looking for work 1.2mill claiming coz of low pay)
But same in US/UK in you want to know where the trickle down of QE ended up....look at house prices . But it was starting to show in other things and the first thing you need to stop if you want to address inflation its the printing of money
 
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‘Huge, Missing and Growing:’ $65 Trillion in Dollar Debt Sparks Concern
December 5, 2022 archive.ph
Institutions outside the US are holding an estimated $65 trillion in “missing” dollar debt off their balance sheets through currency derivatives, making it harder for global policymakers to anticipate the next financial crisis.

According to a paper from the Bank for International Settlements, this very short-term hidden borrowing forms part of a “huge, missing and growing” debt that the likes of pension funds owe through foreign-exchange swaps and other derivatives transactions.
Click to expand...

This is a problem, the BIS noted, because FX swaps were flash-points during both the global financial crisis and the early days of the pandemic, when dollar funding stress forced central banks to step in to help struggling borrowers.
Click to expand...
 
Seems reasonable to me, the BBC article is so vacuous it doesn't even discuss any of the changes

www.reuters.com

Britain reviews financial rules to bolster City's global clout

Britain set out a raft of measures on Friday to bolster the City of London's role as a global financial centre, under strain since Brexit ushered in new competition from Amsterdam, Paris and Frankfurt.
www.reuters.com www.reuters.com

www.gov.uk

Financial Services: The Edinburgh Reforms

On 9 December, the Chancellor of the Exchequer announced a set of reforms to drive growth and competitiveness in the financial services sector.
www.gov.uk www.gov.uk
 
platinumsage said:
Seems reasonable to me, the BBC article is so vacuous it doesn't even discuss any of the changes

www.reuters.com

Britain reviews financial rules to bolster City's global clout

Britain set out a raft of measures on Friday to bolster the City of London's role as a global financial centre, under strain since Brexit ushered in new competition from Amsterdam, Paris and Frankfurt.
www.reuters.com www.reuters.com

www.gov.uk

Financial Services: The Edinburgh Reforms

On 9 December, the Chancellor of the Exchequer announced a set of reforms to drive growth and competitiveness in the financial services sector.
www.gov.uk www.gov.uk
Click to expand...
BBC text has changed since last night - i read changes include not having to keep as much cash reserves and more freedom in bundling up and selling junk debts again... "deregulating securitisation" ??
 
I’m not seeing much detail, just announcements about future announcements and plans to make plans. Things like “insurers will be able to hold less capital” I know for a fact is purely media speculation. If they change the capital rules at all — which is far from certain (insurers don’t actually want them to) — it’s far more likely that some will have to hold more and others less, but the overall capital will stay roughly level. The media take some bland announcements about the intent to review some rules and read all kinds of stuff into it that is not necessarily there.
 
The EU are looking to tighten up on stuff within their own sphere and trade is leaching back to EU centres in response to this. Going it alone may well be a backward step in terms on long term credibility. And I suppose the UK would foot the bill for fuck ups. Again
 
not-bono-ever said:
The EU are looking to tighten up on stuff within their own sphere and trade is leaching back to EU centres in response to this. Going it alone may well be a backward step in terms on long term credibility. And I suppose the UK would foot the bill for fuck ups. Again
Click to expand...
a weakening of the banking sector in the UK has to be a good thing long term
 
It’s an interesting discussion as the much lauded Singapore style set up has gone to great lengths to ensure it is tight enough to be granted EU equivalence. This is something where the UK might find itself marginalised, as there is no appetite in the EU to bend itself to accept a looser UK regime.light touch doesn’t work with capitalist pigdogs
 
Ming said:
Big Dr Doom fan here!

Click to expand...

That was a good watch on the doom aspect...hard to argue against

Where he seems very weak is on the What To Do side of things. He basically doesn't have an answer apart from tech and prayers as he cant see outside the current power structure/ideology. He dismisses left wing options as 'populist' and leading to 'economic catastrophe'. He talks happily about the relative peace of the post war period up to the early 80s but does identify what changed in the early 80s to bring us to this point (neoliberalism).
 
ska invita said:
That was a good watch on the doom aspect...hard to argue against

Where he seems very weak is on the What To Do side of things. He basically doesn't have an answer apart from tech and prayers as he cant see outside the current power structure/ideology. He dismisses left wing options as 'populist' and leading to 'economic catastrophe'. He talks happily about the relative peace of the post war period up to the early 80s but does identify what changed in the early 80s to bring us to this point (neoliberalism).
Click to expand...
I agree with his analysis.

I am by nature a somewhat pessimistic person (which you can argue makes my view on things skewed) but i don’t see a lot of hope in the future. The barbarians (conservative/Tories) are at the gate and they don’t take prisoners. Climate change won’t be addressed, the globalization and deregulation of finance will continue and the democratic norms we used to take for granted will continue to be degraded and eroded (deliberately). Eventually we’ll end up back in a feudal state. The guards at the gate will be ‘private security contractors‘. Just like Swiss pike men.

So solutions. I don’t think there are any other than violence. The supreme authority from which all other authority springs from.
 
Ming said:
I agree with his analysis.

I am by nature a somewhat pessimistic person (which you can argue makes my view on things skewed) but i don’t see a lot of hope in the future. The barbarians (conservative/Tories) are at the gate and they don’t take prisoners. Climate change won’t be addressed, the globalization and deregulation of finance will continue and the democratic norms we used to take for granted will continue to be degraded and eroded (deliberately). Eventually we’ll end up back in a feudal state. The guards at the gate will be ‘private security contractors‘. Just like Swiss pike men.

So solutions. I don’t think there are any other than violence. The supreme authority from which all other authority springs from.
Click to expand...
If you want to take your view to the max. try reading this book
9780374270933.jpg

I just started re-reading after a few years
Synopsis of the first few pages:
Humanism is the delusion that humanity is ever improving - a Christian ethic without God - in fact a new religion-less religion of self-deception
Earth is like a living vessel being destroyed by a plague rats in the form of human beings stripping the earth of all nutrients
He does quote authorities for this: James Lovelock/Gaia theory - Thomas Malthuse - Principle of Population.

Good luck!
 
CH1 said:
If you want to take your view to the max. try reading this book
9780374270933.jpg

I just started re-reading after a few years
Synopsis of the first few pages:
Humanism is the delusion that humanity is ever improving - a Christian ethic without God - in fact a new religion-less religion of self-deception
Earth is like a living vessel being destroyed by a plague rats in the form of human beings stripping the earth of all nutrients
He does quote authorities for this: James Lovelock/Gaia theory - Thomas Malthuse - Principle of Population.

Good luck!
Click to expand...
Apocalyptic Judaism always comes back into style.
 
Ming said:
I agree with his analysis.

I am by nature a somewhat pessimistic person (which you can argue makes my view on things skewed) but i don’t see a lot of hope in the future. The barbarians (conservative/Tories) are at the gate and they don’t take prisoners. Climate change won’t be addressed, the globalization and deregulation of finance will continue and the democratic norms we used to take for granted will continue to be degraded and eroded (deliberately). Eventually we’ll end up back in a feudal state. The guards at the gate will be ‘private security contractors‘. Just like Swiss pike men.

So solutions. I don’t think there are any other than violence. The supreme authority from which all other authority springs from.
Click to expand...
I wouldnt argue with any of those points and the light at the end of the tunnel is an incoming train full of those fat tories on their way to the gated citadels
 
If you only went by posts on this thread, you would think that the entire financial system was in ruins by now. It started 15 years ago with reports of its demise and 99% of the posts over the subsequent 15 years have been links to articles that report ever more catastrophic disasters.
 
kabbes said:
If you only went by posts on this thread, you would think that the entire financial system was in ruins by now. It started 15 years ago with reports of its demise and 99% of the posts over the subsequent 15 years have been links to articles that report ever more catastrophic disasters.
Click to expand...
Good old capitalism eh
FTSE record peak but I've also seen stories about mass buybacks, presumably the two are connected??
 
ska invita said:
Good old capitalism eh
FTSE record peak but I've also seen stories about mass buybacks, presumably the two are connected??
Click to expand...
It’s bloody robust alright, because disasters become opportunities for power to retrench itself rather than the opposite. Inequality grows rather than shrinks. It’s a fucking hydra

Buybacks are very common in the states, but I’m not aware of them being a big thing in the UK. Are you thinking of any company in particular?
 
kabbes said:
It’s bloody robust alright, because disasters become opportunities for power to retrench itself rather than the opposite. Inequality grows rather than shrinks. It’s a fucking hydra

Buybacks are very common in the states, but I’m not aware of them being a big thing in the UK. Are you thinking of any company in particular?
Click to expand...
Yes but I can't for the life of me remember what it was. Maybe an energy company, but maybe not
 
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