platinumsage
HaveMyPassword123
It had similar periods in 2015 and 2018, I'd hardly call it a "collapse".
Global financial system implosion begins
- Thread starter Falcon
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It had similar periods in 2015 and 2018, I'd hardly call it a "collapse".
Given the time running out for a Brexit agreement and the impact of resurgent COVID on the sentiment of the FTSE’s heavy weighting on energy stocks, I’m actually kind of surprised it’s only 10% down from its post-March peak. If AstraZeneca get their vaccine approved, I would expect that 10% drop to be unwound and then some. If they also out together something on Brexit other than a total EU cliff edge, that will also make a difference.
strung out
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The FTSE 100 is packed full of ancient companies that will be struggling with the pandemic and uncertainty though. Look at the whole market (e.g. something like a FTSE Global All Cap index) and it's up 7.5% in the last year.
not-bono-ever
meh
theres many reasons why the FTSE is still bouncing along , and some are not to do with the shiny health of the constituents
ska invita
back on the other side
i thought all these geniuses had priced in mass deaths and economic collapse in the real world?
As you were again, then (and somewhat better than on that 24 Oct base point for measurement)
All this volatility — down 5, up 5, up 5, down 5 — is just business as usual this year.
I fully expect it to drop heavily again, by the way, as COVID and Brexit continue to take their toll. But before dropping heavily, it wouldn’t surprise me if it first gained a lot. Timing the market this year would require someone with much more insight than I have.
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When I wrote that a few days ago, I didn’t expect a vaccine effect to be quite so imminent. Pfizer announce 90% effectiveness and everything has just jumped another 5-10%
discokermit
Well-Known Member
how many announcements have we heard? how many stock market jumps have we seen off the back of them?
discokermit
Well-Known Member
so fucking what.
ska invita
back on the other side
so someones just made (another) fortune
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
i'm astonished, i thought the pound would be in freefall atm
British Pound to US Dollar Spot Exchange Rates for 2020
British Pound to US Dollar Spot Exchange Rates for 2020
www.exchangerates.org.uk
USD is just weak, is my interpretation. GBP is still only about 1.10 against the EUR, after all. So it’s not so much about the UK as it is about the US.
(Don’t forget either than pre-Brexit, USD regularly traded above 1.50. I remember about 10-15 years ago it even going above 2.00. So 1.35 is still historically extremely low for GBP).
(Don’t forget either than pre-Brexit, USD regularly traded above 1.50. I remember about 10-15 years ago it even going above 2.00. So 1.35 is still historically extremely low for GBP).
Incidentally, it’s a sign of the crazy times we live in that it was only six weeks ago that you posted this!
Six weeks later and we’ve had multiple vaccine successes, we’ve had “almost certain” no deal Brexit and now we’ve had a possible “path to success” on a Brexit deal. Net result: FTSE 100 closed at 6550 today (up 17.5% from the time of your post) and the FTSE 250 has risen by closer to 20%. What a mad year for the equity indices.
not-bono-ever has said that people bet on vix an index of volatility? Some are making a killing.
not-bono-ever
meh
Yep. You can play volatility by taking a position on the index that tracks volatility. Given that the vix data is sucked out of options on stocks underlying data ( yer black scholes and shit ), you can take take out a derivative based on a derivative. The vix is low ATM which in itself is a warning sign. This is his things stack up very quickly and people lose control of what is going on
gosub
~#
I think they already have. the disconnect between the markets and the real world is almost total
Idaho
blah blah blah
Yep, it's almost at full bounce back. It's worked out well with my pension as I had sat out the market for a year and then bought back in at 5400. But what's going to happen when it's back in the 7000s? We all agreed that it was too high before, and the fundamentals have got worse. Is this just inflationary melt up?
Artaxerxes
Look out, he's got a gnu!
Bear in mind the US is currently burning through its population like an arsonist in a fireplace store
Idaho
blah blah blah
Proportionally less than we are!
I’m not sure that the FTSE 100 as a whole has much meaning, to be honest. It’s fragmented largely into energy companies, banks/insurers, pharmaceuticals and investment trusts — those segments are massively different to each other but between them make up most of the index. Some of the segments can look good value whilst others look dodgy. A lot make most of their money outside of the UK so their value in GBP is just higher as a matter of maths when GBP is devalued and vice versa, with no reflection on fundamentals at all. As such, I don’t think you can draw general lines about when it is over or undervalued.
gosub
~#
Not that much in it, but yep US has 5* UK population and JUST under 5* as many deaths
ska invita
back on the other side
"Grantham cited shares in the electric car maker as an example of the market bubble. “As a model 3 owner, my personal favourite Tesla tidbit is that its market capitalisation, now over $600bn, amounts to over $1.25m per car sold each year versus $9,000 per car for General Motors. What has 1929 got to equal that?”
Idaho
blah blah blah
The issue with Tesla as a meme stock is that it doesn't have the scalability of the Facebook/Netflix/Amazon etc. Those are all suppliers of data - which can (theoretically) be scaled up without greatly increasing the cost base. Switching on a few more servers and upping the bandwidth to service another million or ten users is not immaterial, but it's not extraordinary. Tesla make actual cars. If they want to produce another million or ten cars, that's a big deal and requires a whole lot of new raw materials that need to be bought, shipped and hammered into a car shape.
I read an interesting round up a few weeks back of technical analyses from various banks of Tesla stock. One had something like $100 and another something like $900, so they were getting into how that has happened. It did allow me to understand the various valuations a lot better. The lower estimate (which still assumes massive growth to make sense) is based on it being a car maker. The higher valuations were attempting to place value on it using its data to move into being things like being the provider of AI for self-driving taxis and haulage. You may or may not agree with their assessment of that potential, but it wasn’t just reactive to price trends.
ETA: here it is. $90 vs $780, actually
Wall Street’s dilemma: What are Tesla’s shares worth?
Investors who believed in Musk’s vision to transform the century-old automobile industry and stuck with it through the years had to look past production troubles, delivery missteps, mounting losses, volatile stock moves and an erratic chief executive prone to land himself in trouble with tweets
www.google.co.uk
Further: this is what the Morgan Stanley guy said about their own $540 valuation. The “battery supplier” thing is an example of a valuation for something I hadn’t even really considered.
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Idaho
blah blah blah
The high value of Tesla stock is largely because it's a famous company with a publicity savvy CEO in an era when millions of people are making specific consumer choices about investing pension money - 401k or robin hood, etc. Tesla is a perfect mix of an understandable and visible product, prestigious and futuristic, and most importantly - number go up.
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