Global financial system implosion begins

[discokermit]

Isn’t that already what was expected though?

no. industrial output - reuters poll +1.5% year on year, actual -13.5%
fixed asset investment - reuters poll +2.8%, actual -24.5%
retail sales - reuters poll +0.8%, actual -20.5%

the poll results are the median forecast of analysts polled by reuters, which as you can see are miles off. i was watching bloomberg business news this morning at two a.m. and there was much shock and surprise from the presenters, who thought it would be bad but nowhere near this catastrophe.

 

[discokermit]

You seem slightly incredulous that the markets are so irrational and sentimental!

in this instance it is rational. everything is fucked. buy a gun.

 

[brogdale]

 

[ska invita]

ftse100 went under 4000 in 2003 and 2008 crashes, very likely it will do so again in the coming days

 

[not-bono-ever]

the big concern for us is the banks locking down

 

[ska invita]

the big concern for us is the banks locking down

who is "us"?

 

[not-bono-ever]

people who live in the UK

eta, not being glib or defending the banks here

 

[Badgers]

Carphone Warehouse gone
Laura Ashley gone

Neither really likely due to CV but it certainly won't have helped an organisation on the brink of collapse.

 

[kabbes]

From a capitalist perspective, thinning the herd by putting down unviable businesses is a positive thing in the long-term. Not from a human perspective, of course, but that doesn’t tend to be a focus of the industrial complex

 

[discokermit]

the big concern for us is the banks locking down

not me, i got my two hundred and fifty quid out of the machine. if the banks went down that would make me the richest man in bilston. until the people of bilston quickly abandon cash in favour of physical violence as a means of exchange, then my short reign would be over.

 

[discokermit]

From a capitalist perspective, thinning the herd by putting down unviable businesses is a positive thing in the long-term. Not from a human perspective, of course, but that doesn’t tend to be a focus of the industrial complex

this isnt going to be a thinning of the herd. the whole herd is diseased.

 

[Idaho]

this isnt going to be a thinning of the herd. the whole herd is diseased.

I think you might be taking the metaphor to breaking point. There are plenty of companies producing useful things or providing useful services.

 

[discokermit]

I think you might be taking the metaphor to breaking point. There are plenty of companies producing useful things or providing useful services.

yep. this is much bigger than individual companies or the stock market, this is a huge systemic thing.

 

[kabbes]

No it’s not, at least not to the extent you mean. AstraZeneca, Shell and Vodafone aren’t going bust in the next three months

And meanwhile, I’m sure a Unilever and Tesco are having a fine old time

 

[discokermit]

we shall see. i think this is gonna be way bigger than 2008.

 

[Artaxerxes]

we shall see. i think this is gonna be way bigger than 2008.

I think it will make a hell of an impact, mostly because it’s just so visible and widespread, there’s no burying head in sand here and muddling on hoping your job will be fine while others plummet. Everyone can physically see the damage and impact to others in a clearer way than since the Great Depression.

 

[Plumdaff]

From a capitalist perspective, thinning the herd by putting down unviable businesses is a positive thing in the long-term. Not from a human perspective, of course, but that doesn’t tend to be a focus of the industrial complex

We're going to lose a lot of businesses which are unviable short term, but vital and necessary in the medium to long term

 

[kabbes]

I think it will make a hell of an impact, mostly because it’s just so visible and widespread, there’s no burying head in sand here and muddling on hoping your job will be fine while others plummet. Everyone can physically see the damage and impact to others in a clearer way than since the Great Depression.

Could be. On the other hand, it could be that once incidences peak, there will be a hell of a land grab and the whole thing will rebound almost as far as it collapsed. I don’t know any more anyone else. Put it this way though — when I get a chance, I’m getting into this market, not out. It’s my bet that in 18 months, it’ll be back up to at least 10% from its peak.

 

[discokermit]

Put it this way though — when I get a chance, I’m getting into this market, not out. It’s my bet that in 18 months, it’ll be back up to at least 10% from its peak.

go for it, champ.

 

[Idaho]

Could be. On the other hand, it could be that once incidences peak, there will be a hell of a land grab and the whole thing will rebound almost as far as it collapsed. I don’t know any more anyone else. Put it this way though — when I get a chance, I’m getting into this market, not out. It’s my bet that in 18 months, it’ll be back up to at least 10% from its peak.

Hopefully. But hopefully the asset prices going up aren't just inflation.

 

[discokermit]

i have bought two hundred quids worth of bog roll and airgun pellets.

 

[kabbes]

Hopefully. But hopefully the asset prices going up aren't just inflation.

I don’t know how much oil is still a factor input for inflation. If it is, the sharp reduction in oil price is going to have a deflationary effect. We shall see, I guess

 

[Idaho]

I don’t know how much oil is still a factor input for inflation. If it is, the sharp reduction in oil price is going to have a deflationary effect. We shall see, I guess

10 years of low interest rates and qe haven't led to inflation, so it's not unreasonable to suppose that zero rates, more qe plus big deficit spending won't either... But it seems unlikely somehow.

 

[Badgers]

Nissan and Ford have suspended car production

Nissan and Ford have suspended car production

Car makers shut down as demand dries up and virus disrupts supply chains

www.independent.co.uk

 

[brogdale]

Reckon this will out-do the lot:

 

[Idaho]

Reckon this will out-do the lot:

View attachment 202083

Probably. But the thing about growth is that it's compounded on top of previous growth. We can contract 20% and still be far more productive than the peak recovery in 1993.

 

[discokermit]

 

[ska invita]

Interesting that there's a rush to the dollar.. Because folk lore says the dollar is the most secure? The USA looks particularly vulnerable to me in regards the pandemic, so not sure how that squares up.

 

[discokermit]

Interesting that there's a rush to the dollar.. Because folk lore says the dollar is the most secure? The USA looks particularly vulnerable to me in regards the pandemic, so not sure how that squares up.

Dollar soars, boosted by worries over coronavirus impact

The U.S. dollar rallied across the board on Thursday, as worries about the economic fallout from the coronavirus boosted dollar demand despite recent steps by world central banks aimed at alleviating market stress.

www.reuters.com

 

[not-bono-ever]

Another BoE rate cut