mauvais
on reddit or something
It's not the first time they've fucked themselves over though.
Batillus - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Four of the biggest ships in the world, and of those, three only lasted a few years each before being scrapped.
Global financial system implosion begins
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Batillus - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Four of the biggest ships in the world, and of those, three only lasted a few years each before being scrapped.
gosub
~#
Can't really talk about shipping, biggest thing I've captained is 60ft.
But as I said, its the same in aviation, and our family has been at that game long enough to know what'll happen. You can be a best practice company, that never gets in hock to the bank. You still end up screwed by them's that did. These 'zombies' throw out any idea of resale value, and thrash these assets at well below cost, so you have follow suit...eventually plugs get pulled collapsing resale prices even further, though the zombies are only really worth breaking for spares. Meanwhile the discrepancy between new and used (coz there will be some real bargains on the resale market) undermine the manufacturers moving forward.
But if you are planning on moving people or stuff around the planet, bargin prices for the medium term (though also probably some accidents from cost cutting, that may well be underinsured)
mauvais
on reddit or something
Yeah, pretty much. Plus whole business models are a gamble, like the Airbus A380, which is notionally just a big plane but in fact a bet on the long term sustainability of a particular mode of travel, operations etcetera - and if you bet wrong, then when someone beats you to getting rid of the things again, you're left with a white elephant that noone wants. Not that I'm saying the A380 is exactly that, but it treads a fine line.
Will there be something like this again?
The ghost fleet of the recession anchored just east of Singapore
8 September 2009
ska invita
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/
ska invita
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Just grabbed a word with Philip J. Jennings, general secretary of UNI Global Union, about the turmoil in the markets.
Are we heading into a crash?
Yes, we are heading for a crash, I’m worried about it.
Emerging markets were meant to pull us through this crisis. but China is slowing, and the impact will ripple out across the developing economy. And the jobs situation across the global economy will not improve
How bad could it get?
We are worried abut the economic climate - how deep the crash will be. Those RBS analysts [who said to sell everything] may be right - “cataclysm” could be the right word to use.
What should be done?
We need leadership. The G20 needs to fulfil the promise they made at the last financial crisis, to not just save the banking sector but to also put the economy back on track.
The private sector need to understand that lack of investment isn’t helping, and we need to push wages higher. The G20 needs to put demand back in the economy.
Are we heading into a crash?
Yes, we are heading for a crash, I’m worried about it.
Emerging markets were meant to pull us through this crisis. but China is slowing, and the impact will ripple out across the developing economy. And the jobs situation across the global economy will not improve
How bad could it get?
We are worried abut the economic climate - how deep the crash will be. Those RBS analysts [who said to sell everything] may be right - “cataclysm” could be the right word to use.
What should be done?
We need leadership. The G20 needs to fulfil the promise they made at the last financial crisis, to not just save the banking sector but to also put the economy back on track.
The private sector need to understand that lack of investment isn’t helping, and we need to push wages higher. The G20 needs to put demand back in the economy.
ska invita
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bank run on Italy’s Monte dei Paschi bank
Chief executive Fabrizio Viola did not say how much money savers had withdrawn, or when the outflow began, though he said the fall in deposits was “limited” and that the bank could cope with it as he sought to reassure customers and investors.
Italian bank shares have lost 20% so far this year as investors, already rattled about global economic growth, have sold out of a sector with low profitability and about 200 billion euros ($218 billion) of loans that are unlikely to be repaid.
Monte Paschi - Italy’s third-biggest bank - has lost the most ground as it is perceived to be the most vulnerable; it has the highest level of bad loans as a proportion of assets and was the worst performer in a health check of eurozone lenders in 2014.
The Tuscan-based bank’s stock, which had plunged 15% on Monday and 14.4% on Tuesday, was suspended from trading several times after falling 18.2% on Wednesday. The plunge helped dragged down all other Italian banking stocks, with Carige shedding 12.7% and Banco Popolare falling more than 6%.
Viola said the plunge in Monte Paschi shares was not a reflection of the bank’s fundamentals, which he said had improved in the last quarter of 2015.
Chief executive Fabrizio Viola did not say how much money savers had withdrawn, or when the outflow began, though he said the fall in deposits was “limited” and that the bank could cope with it as he sought to reassure customers and investors.
Italian bank shares have lost 20% so far this year as investors, already rattled about global economic growth, have sold out of a sector with low profitability and about 200 billion euros ($218 billion) of loans that are unlikely to be repaid.
Monte Paschi - Italy’s third-biggest bank - has lost the most ground as it is perceived to be the most vulnerable; it has the highest level of bad loans as a proportion of assets and was the worst performer in a health check of eurozone lenders in 2014.
The Tuscan-based bank’s stock, which had plunged 15% on Monday and 14.4% on Tuesday, was suspended from trading several times after falling 18.2% on Wednesday. The plunge helped dragged down all other Italian banking stocks, with Carige shedding 12.7% and Banco Popolare falling more than 6%.
Viola said the plunge in Monte Paschi shares was not a reflection of the bank’s fundamentals, which he said had improved in the last quarter of 2015.
mauvais
on reddit or something
Oldest bank in the world. 544 years, man and boy...
J Ed
Follow Back Pro Expropriation
ska invita
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I dont really know about the FTSE, but 5700 is still a historically high number
FTSE 100 Index Chart - Yahoo! UK & Ireland Finance
click on MAX at the bottom
...crudely judging the pattern on that graph it could fall to below 4000, which also looks more realistic in the long term trend...
FTSE 100 Index Chart - Yahoo! UK & Ireland Finance
click on MAX at the bottom
...crudely judging the pattern on that graph it could fall to below 4000, which also looks more realistic in the long term trend...
gosub
~#
it was 6700 in 2008 before we increased the money supply by 30%......
Newsnight package on shipping as a canary of crisis noted that you can now charter one of these ships, again for about 3000 a day.
i would close-to-guarantee if you look on vesselfinder.com or fleetmon you will see tankers lined up down the side of the IOW in a queue to go to Fawley...floating storage
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This is the FTSE today
This is what I was talking about earlier - the longer term trend here shows a trend to 4,000 points.
I dont know how much just seeing a pattern in a graph has any bearing, but as patterns go it looks very clear to me.
Peaks at 2000 and and 2008 are the dot com bubble and credit crunch crash...what Im wondering is what happened in 1995 to create such run away growth - I'm guessing some kind of deregulation kicked in?
ska invita
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I meant what happaned from 1995 onwards up to the peak of 2000 to create such a spike and a bubble. CLinton's repeal of the Glass-Steagall act came in 1999 wiki tells me, but i expect there were other deregulations before then...? Im guessing it was more than just market enthusiasm for Windows 95
Glass–Steagall: Aftermath of repeal - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
gosub
~#
But that's bollocks, no consistency at all in time axis.
Take the longest comparable straight bit
85-95= 1k-3k
so it either triples in ten years 05 =9k, 15 =27k
or it grows at a steady 2k per ten years 05 =5k , 15 =7k <-this one as YOU want a straight line.
going on the2008 6700 peak, that led to 30% more money being printed.....that would be 8700 now.
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mauvais
on reddit or something
Your chart scale is full on weird for a start. And when you look at it normally, well, basically the dotcom boom happened.
And if we draw your trend line again properly, we end up over 8,000.
Attachments
Actually, maybe time IS getting faste
r,I had noticed it. I blamed the French, they being in charge of time, people told me it was just coz I was getting older
magneze
🎧
That's the .com boom.
ska invita
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i know, but other than just piling in to computers were there some particular deregulations that happened? The market becomes more dramatically erratic and bubble-creating after 95, and I want to know if something particularly allowed for that
Doesnt matter - I dont want to derail this thread - about to get very busy - ill read up about it
Doesnt matter - I dont want to derail this thread - about to get very busy - ill read up about it
mauvais
on reddit or something
As well as the fundamental problem described above, you also lack any data from prior to 1985. That ten year trend that you're extrapolating - well twas not ever thus.i know, but other than just piling in to computers were there some particular deregulations that happened? The market becomes more dramatically erratic and bubble-creating after 95, and I want to know if something particularly allowed for that
Doesnt matter - I dont want to derail this thread - about to get very busy - ill read up about it
pocketscience
Well-Known Member
my hunch:i know, but other than just piling in to computers were there some particular deregulations that happened? The market becomes more dramatically erratic and bubble-creating after 95, and I want to know if something particularly allowed for that
Doesnt matter - I dont want to derail this thread - about to get very busy - ill read up about it
PC's & IT networks boom providing industrial efficiency + fast track globalization + china manufacturing output increase = huge profits for corporations
ska invita
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Heres 50 years of FTSE All Share Graphic: 50 years of the FTSE All-Share index
There definitley havent been the equivalent boom and busts of the dot com and credit crunch
mauvais
on reddit or something
Look up the 100+ years of the DJIA.
toblerone3
Grrrrr
Yes but you can draw a whole variety of different trend lines through the data depending on how far back you take the start point. You can draw a slightly different narrative from each trend line and the current deviation (or lack of deviation) from the long term trend.
gosub
~#
but it ain't a boom its a slow down, tripled 85-95, doubles 95-05, flat 05-15
gosub
~#
big bang 1983
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