Global financial system implosion begins

[yield]

No Greek exit from the euro until after the second election.

I reckon German brinkmanship and that they will print before allowing divorce.

Redonimation is imminent.

Redomination or redenomination?

 

[gosub]

Agree no EUro exit before elections -there is nobody with authority to issue drachma.. But the capital flight currently going on will destabilise Greece, long before any ballot- what's the saying about two meals away from anarchy.

 

[toblerone3]

there is nobody with authority to issue drama. hy.

 

[gosub]

Changed... Predictive text

 

[gosub]

http://m.guardian.co.uk/business/20...-flame-fear-spreads?cat=business&type=article

 

[Divisive Cotton]

I see our prick of a PM is now lecturing Germany on needing a strategy for growth in the Euro zone. I bet the Germans don't know whether to laugh or cry

 

[Nylock]

I see our prick of a PM is now lecturing Germany on needing a strategy for growth in the Euro zone. I bet the Germans don't know whether to laugh or cry

That's the thing though innit... If you laugh hard enough and long enough, you can do both at the same time

 

[Divisive Cotton]

Surely pic will be in the next Private Eye:

The PM enters delicate negotiations with the Germans during the Champions League finals

 

[gosub]

Is a mental picture even when not cropped, what were they thinking -things are so in hand we've got time to watch football... Hope they're right but I doubt it.

 

[Nylock]

Surely pic will be in the next Private Eye:

The PM enters delicate negotiations with the Germans during the Champions League finals

I hope that private eye use the original version (showing the guy just out of shot facepalming) when they do their captioning

 

[magneze]

This thread seemed the most appropriate place for this pic & caption from the Guardian.

 

[elbows]

The noises about Bankia were justified then:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-18213848

Spain's fourth-largest bank, Bankia, has asked the government for a bailout worth 19bns euros ($24bn; £15bn).
Bankia also restated its results - now saying it made a 2.98bn-euro loss for 2011 rather than the 309m euros in profit it announced in February.
Earlier on Friday, trading in Bankia shares was suspended on the Madrid stock exchange while its management put together a restructuring plan.
Bankia has already been bailed out because of its bad property loans.

 

[Falcon]

The End Game (Global Macro Investor, Shanghai, May 2012)

Points:

• No growth engine/G20 countries approaching stall speed simultaneously
• Second world recession imminent. Context: 2008 depression unresolved.
• Unprecedented
• EU/UK/Japan/South Korea/China sovereign default imminent
• First major bank collapse imminent/domino effect/European banking failure/government failure
• No brakes in the system/seriousness largely unrecognised
• Problem not $70t G10 debt: problem is $700t (1200% GDP) derivatives for which G10 debt is collateral
• Markets now realising LTRO/EFSF/QE are not going to prevent collapse
• Timing: 2012/2013. No trade finance/shipping finance/farming finance/leasing/bond market...
• Closure of stock markets/banking system
• Priorities: custody/safekeeping/counterparty
• The "great reset"

Great slides and data to back up the claim, from a guy that understands global macro finance.

 

[elbows]

I don't think there is data in the presentation to backup all of those claims. I do anticipate some massive problems this year and next though, and he has certainly highlighted numerous areas of interest, many of which have been detailed elsewhere over the last 5 years of so.

I cannot predict the exact nature of cascades of failure, whether all those dominos fall within a short space of time or whether we see it unravel in a greater number of distinct phases, spread over a greater period of time than he suggests.

If I had to bet then I'd say some kind of 'great reset' is indeed on the cards at some point. I'd rather get it over with sooner than later, but must not allow this opinion to induce a false sense of immediacy into my thinking.

Some shits are going to hit the fan this year, I just can't tell how many.

 

[ciaoant1]

Gold and the jobs report: If you only knew the power of the dark side

[...] But this process of debasing the currency has to be completed "one step at a time". If they print everything at once, everyone will be on to them, and things will get out of hand. So, they first let the stock market almost crash, and then they "save the day", by printing more and more money. This has already happened a lot of times, and it will probably continue to happen in the future, in both USA and in Europe (Europe is an even more complicated case, since it is a monetary union of many different States: Germany is letting everyone else crash, and only then they allow the ECB to print money (in order to save the German banks among others). But before Germany agrees to money printing, they always hold a conference, where they propose a few new treaties, that give them more and more control over their fellow eurozone members protectorates. So, it's a bit more political in the eurozone compared to the situation in USA, but the economics of it are pretty much the same, and the ECB will also print money sooner or later, and one way or another).

 

[Barking_Mad]

The great reset huh? Does this mean i won't have to pay back my overdraft? ;-)

 

[Riklet]

What with all the talk about spain being the big 'un about to go, with Rajoy possibly working out how to concede that a bail out is needed within the next few weeks, there's a rather brilliant and timely as ever article from Paul Mason who seems to have been in Sevilla yesterday or today. Well, I didn't see him, but his analysis rings very true.

Spain: Simmering Anger in Seville.

But the austerity in Spain has, in truth, been mild. I ask Raul Limon of El Pais if Spain could go the way of Greece:

"If Europe does not support Spain, yes. So far people think Europe cannot let us fall - and as long as we think that, people are waiting for the solution. The moment people think Europe is letting us fall, people will stop complaining and start protesting."

 

[ska invita]

Interesting read here:
Little Britain: why the UK is no longer a superpower
Extracted from Going South: Why Britain Will Have A Third World Economy By 2014, by Larry Elliott and Dan Atkinson
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2012/jun/08/why-uk-no-longer-superpower

 

[gosub]

Stock markets rally on the news near bankrupt Italy (with 3rd largest public debts in the world (121% of GDP rising to 137% by 2014 before deal announced) is going to pump 22 billion into Spanish banks.

 

[Giles]

Why don't they just let some banks fail, get it over with?

Why is this seen as such a bad thing, that it must be avoided at all costs?

We could all just spend cash, or gold coins!

Giles..

 

[gosub]

coz they looked at Lehmans and saw that inter bank borrowing meant the whole lot was a house of cards. Do think Iceland had the right idea (only coz of a referendum) they even sent their bankers to jail

 

[jusali]

Stock markets rally on the news near bankrupt Italy (with 3rd largest public debts in the world (121% of GDP rising to 137% by 2014 before deal announced) is going to pump 22 billion into Spanish banks.

It defies belief eh?

 

[Riklet]

Just watching this video with paul mason about the "Meltdown" and thought it might be worth posting up. Certainly addresses to an extent why they "don't just let some banks fail".

 

[Barking_Mad]

It defies belief eh?

'They know there's no success like failure, and that failure's no success at all.'

 

[junglevip]

Just watching this video with paul mason about the "Meltdown" and thought it might be worth posting up. Certainly addresses to an extent why they "don't just let some banks fail".

Cheers for this

 

[contadino]

Stock markets rally on the news near bankrupt Italy (with 3rd largest public debts in the world (121% of GDP rising to 137% by 2014 before deal announced) is going to pump 22 billion into Spanish banks.

If there's a better yield on Spanish bonds than Italian bonds, then it's a nice little earner, no? Plus, when things go tits up in Milan, Italians will get to blame the Spanish (which they like more than blaming each other.)

 

[gosub]

they are both now above the unsustainable 6% mark, Spain having to contribute 10 of the 100 billion won't have helped, and bond markets won't have forgotten getting burned on Greek debt.

~Markets ended down which made more sense, but the early enthusiastic reaction to spider swallowing as a solution to the fly problem (actually they've kicked the can so often we must be up to large predatory mammals by now) seemed odd

 

[elbows]

If the markets were that rational we wouldn't have got into this shit in the first place.

 

[gosub]

I can remember some city type on telly a few years back explaining that the markets are the sum total of all knowledge on the planet. AT the time I thought it was wrong because of price of everything, value of nothing, now I just think its WRONG

 

[Dr Jon]

Interesting read here:
Little Britain: why the UK is no longer a superpower
Extracted from Going South: Why Britain Will Have A Third World Economy By 2014, by Larry Elliott and Dan Atkinson
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2012/jun/08/why-uk-no-longer-superpower

This echoes almost everything my Dad used to rant about since even before Thatcher sold off the family silver - basically that UK had all but become a 3rd world country. To him, the introduction of the National Lottery was the tipping-point indicator of UK's transition from world power to banana republic (without the luxury of bananas). The short-lived blip of North-Sea oil and the even shorter blip of the "financial services boom" merely served to delay the inevitable, whilst the profitable bits of national infrastructure were sold off.

Dad warned me, just after Blair's New Labour had swept the loathsome, "robbing bastard" Tories from power, that life was really going to get very tough in the near future. I jokingly asked whether there was a plot to dig Thatcher up or something. He snapped at me not to be so bloody stupid, saying that we would come to look back on the Thatcher years as the good old days - a claim which then was just too ridiculous to be taken seriously.

It now seems that, as usual, he was right...